We could win 5 games and still actually play better than last year, even though they won 6 last year. We could end up with more yards, more points, less yard given up, better time of possession, fewer penalties and fewer turnovers .... and still only win five games.
We play a much tougher schedule and our division is getting better, not worse.
Added to that we still have the same weaknesses that we had last year. It will take at least two off-seasons to improve the talent and change the losing culture.