Jump to content

JohnNord

Community Member
  • Posts

    4,432
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by JohnNord

  1. Here’s another attempt to diminish Josh’s performance versus over the past two weeks:

     

     

    On 9/21/2020 at 11:01 PM, Hapless Bills Fan said:

     

    I think that notion is far-fetched; I think where the bias you allude to may operate is when the PFF commentators are writing articles and yapping - er, I mean commenting - about Allen.

     

    If I understand their system correctly, they have a group of workers grading each QB play - three or something like that.  Those aren't the people who made the pre-draft predictions, they have no skin in the game, it's highly doubtful they have a particular bias against Allen, they're just flunkies trained to grade a play using specified metrics.  So they do their thing, and their grades get averaged or added or whatever it is PFF does in their Special Secret Sauce, then all the play grades get added and multiplied and crunched and munched.   It's hard to conceive that all the flunkies have an anti Allen bias.  It's supposed to be objective, but the key point - it's objective using the specified metrics.  So if the metrics are flawed or biased, the grade will be flawed or biased.

    I think there is bias, but it's more impersonal and deeper into the system.  It's a grading system designed to penalize risk and incentivize caution, and it doesn't look at game outcomes or offensive productivity.  That's why you can get a QB like Darnold who passed for only 179 yds and 1 TD in a loss, but who completed a high percentage and didn't put the football at risk, graded higher than Allen.  That's how you get a QB like Tyrod Taylor in 2016 with the Bills rated as the #11 QB that year.  He passed for only 200 ypg on average, and only 17 TD in 15 games, but by jinks he didn't throw "interceptable balls" like the guided missile Diggs tucked away despite two defenders who were right there trying to pluck it. 

     

     

     

     


    Wonderful explanation...thank you 

  2. If the price was right, then why not!?!?!  But I don’t think the Bills will make a deal.  They do have high hopes for Dawson Knox and they like players like Tyler Kroft and Tommy Sweeney.  Plus they have been playing a lot of 4 wide.  So does it make sense to trade for a player that would be used sparingly and take reps away from a player who could be a rising star?

  3. 3 hours ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

    An interesting take on him, these two games and his first two years.  Funny how analytics people see the same thing and come to such different conclusions.  Some voodoo math going on here.  #1 vs. PFFs #12?

     

    Quick Reads on Josh


    I love this paragraph.  Aaron Schatz and FO were dunked on so bad their last past analysis of Allen.  This is their way of acknowledging that they were probably wrong, without ever saying it.

     

    “We'll start with Josh Allen and the Bills. The consensus at Football Outsiders has always been pessimistic about Allen's chances for success. Our QBASE article in 2018 noted Allen's "horrifying" statistics at the University of Wyoming, and we referred to him as "a parody of an NFL quarterback prospect" in Football Outsiders Almanac that same year.”

  4. I think we need to see more from Dodson.  I was listening to one of the Bills reporters post game.  They thought that Dodson’s plays at first glance might look better than it will when watching the game film.  The middle of the field was open a lot and you have to put that on the LB’s.  I think he shows potential but I need to see more

  5. 10 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

    It struck me watching the Jets game how well Josh moves around the pocket now.  There were many plays where the pocket started to get small or shift and in the past couple of seasons Josh would have pulled the ball down and took off with it.  Now he simply shifts with the pocket keeping his eyes down field at his receivers.  He is also very adept at moving and negating the blitzing DB.  There were several plays where a defender came free and came flying into the backfield and at the last moment Josh stepped up or over and the defender went flying right past him.

     

    He has developed a pocket presence and is not playing scared back there, but shifting and moving and keeping a play alive and hitting his wide receivers.  Sometimes it is just a little hop step forward or a two or three step shuffle to the left or right.  He does it calmly and efficiently while continuing to scan the field.  This is a huge development.  Some QBs never develop that sort of pocket awareness (Darnold).

     

    I'm expecting a lot more work for the RBs against the Phins, but Josh is going to get his shots.  Josh looked great throwing against the Jets, but it was the Jets.  If he can be as accurate and efficient throwing the ball against the Phins secondary and stay slippery and poised in the pocket, it will show Josh has taken another big step in his development.  You can't be an elite QB in the NFL without high level pocket awareness.

     


    I noticed this too - in the first half especially.  He continues to improve as a passer,  only concern was late in the game he did some of the same things as last year like leaving the pocket with no pressure etc

  6. 1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:


    if fumbles were the reason he doesn’t play,  Singletary would have been benched long ago and Josh would get zero called run plays


    True... the only difference is that the other two have shown they make big plays to offset their turnovers.  Yeldon hasn’t.  Again, not his fault and he’s only been active for a handful of games. Yeldon is probably hurt by not having a preseason to show what he can do.  


    It’s not just limited to fumbles either.  In his last game against NE he struggled with blocking and his missed block essentially ended the game.  He also made somewhat of a poor attempt to win a contested catch that would’ve put the Bills on top.  To his credit - he did some good things as a reciever.


    IMO I don’t think he has the confidence of the coaching staff, at least not yet.  I think they like having him in the bullpen and know that whenever he’s needed they can activate him and have a decent veteran option at RB

     

  7. 3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

     

    The more posters repeat this, the more true it does not become.

     

    He has 6 career fumbles for a career fumble rate of 1.2%

     

    Josh Allen's has already fumbled 24 times.

     

    Singletary already has 4 fumbles in only 13 games and fumbles twice as often as Yeldon (2.5%).

     

     


    Maybe, all I know is that he fumbled in the preseason last year and he fumbled against Cincy which almost flipped the game.  
     

    I would like to see TJ get another shot 

  8. IMO the team ready likes TJ as a person and a player.  They keep him around because he’s a pro and because they know he can fill in if they needed him to. But it seems like the coaches don’t have any confidence for three reasons:

     

    1. FUMBLES - He’s shown throughout his career and in Buffalo a propensity to fumble.  The last time the Bills gave him a chance, he fumbled the ball which killed a scoring drive.  I don’t think he played much after that.  When Singletary was healthy they relied on using Gore because he never fumbles and was more dependable.

     

    2. BLOCKING - Yeldon is not a good blocker for a RB.  The last time he got playing time against NE in 2019, he missed a few blocks including one at the end that sealed the game.  Again, no confidence.

     

    3.  SPECIAL TEAMS - He will play ST’s and is decent but there are better choices.  
     

    These factors and a lack of a major injury have kept Yeldon on the non-active list and likely will going forward.   When he’s an opportunities he hasn’t made the most of them.

  9. 15 hours ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

    THIS


    You could say that about the majority of the football analysis here and on social media - but it is what makes sports fun.

     

    One thing you can dispute is numbers though.  The Bills running back average less than 3 YPC on Sunday.  Moss was averaging about 1 YPC.  I don’t think that’s on the running backs either.   They noticeably seemed to have a hard time opening any holes up front against a good Jets defense.  It could be the case NYJ just being good, or a Buffalo line that struggled to run block.  We’ll know more after this week

  10. 1 hour ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

    Surely it's far too early for this. The kid came from Oklahoma which is notorious (like other Big 12 schools) for simplified O-line play (2-point stances and wider alignments etc). He was always going to need some development and he's just switched positions again from OT to OG where most thought he projected better.

     

    Obviously some mixed results on the field so far, but it's early and we've seen some growth (his performance against Denver last season comes to mind). All I'm saying is give the kid a chance before putting him on the trade block. 


    Yea it is too early on Ford overall.  I just don’t think he can deal with quick edge rushers as a tackle.  I think he has a lot of potential as a guard and I do think he can help the Bills run game.  I’m willing to wait a few more games before making a determination on Ford

    • Thank you (+1) 1
  11. 6 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

    Werent they a top 10 rushing offense last year?


    Most of their yardage last year came with Devin running off tackle.  The majority of their yardage occurred over the first 12 weeks of season.  When they needed to grind out some tough yards  on the ground, including during the playoff game in Houston, they were not effective.  The Bills never eclipsed 100 yards after their big win in Denver in Week 12.  
     

    They really seem to be a unit that struggled to establish a running a game.  

  12. 1 minute ago, NewEra said:

    That’s what I see as well

    Unfortunately, I think it starts with Morse.  He’s a general at Center and a great pass blocker but I don’t think he’s average at run blocking.  
     

    Dawkins in the best overall lineman in both facets and is paid like it.  

     

    I think that Cody Ford does have the potential to be a good run-block and overall a good guard but he has a lot to prove.  
     

    The rest for the crew - Feliciano, Spain, Winters and Williams, I see as pretty average starters.

     

    Of course, I might be grading a little hard but we should see over the next few weeks

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Thank you (+1) 1
×
×
  • Create New...