JohnNord
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Posts posted by JohnNord
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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:
They didn't miss anything. And I think you're mis-stating what was said about him. That he had a good chance of being the next Locker or Boller? Fair enough. That his ceiling was Mallett? Please. Maybe a guy here or there blew it this badly but the consensus knew that his ceiling was very very high indeed, but questioned the likelihood of reaching that ceiling.
He was generally considered a first-rounder even though he was also thought to require two years of development, though some said even more.
Guys who need development are less valued, and for good reason. Teams would rather have a guy who will be ready quicker, and it is correctly understood development is hard. Relatively fewer developmental guys become good than guys who require less development. And more, a developmental guy is far more dependent on having an excellent environment. The situation has to be excellent. Allen on the Jets might well have not succeeded.
More, there's another problem with development guys, which is that even in good circumstances, plenty of them can't develop. Changing mechanics is hard. Some guys prove unable to make those changes. And there's no way to accurately predict which guys can change and which can't.
They actually nailed the Josh Allen evaluation. They said he was a hard worker and a great kid, and they were right. Without that and the terrific environment the Bills provided, he wouldn't have become what he has.
There were an awful lot even a fair amount of Cam Newton comps, which appear to have been exactly what this group saw.
The name that kept popping up with Allen was Christian Hackenberg. Many of Twitter analysts made the comparison quite a bit -
9 minutes ago, Rk_Bills86 said:
I'm going to make a statement that many people probably aren't going to like. Draft Experts did not get Allen wrong. He was simply on of the few QBs that has actually made progress towards his ceiling when starting from what would be considered a low floor. This is a combination of many things - including Allen himself, but lets not sit here and ignore the fact that the organization has done literally everything in it's power to build around him to aid his improvement.
New OL - far better than what we had with TT and JA's first year
The Right OC - that uses an absolute TON of various looks, packages, and schemes and is just now able to scheme per opponent
New Weapons - based on what he needs and how the NFL is trending
If you don't believe me - We only need to look in our own division and see a player that had a much higher floor although lower end ceiling in Sam Darnold where he is dealing with:
Just now getting a possibly good OL (year three and they are just/still addressing this)
The OC/HC that is lauded as a QB guru is a sham
His best current weapon is a very very old Chris Hogan (yeah yeah I know - Injures - but our depth at all the skill positions is far better)
They weren't wrong - they nailed everything he'd need to work on. Josh Allen simply worked to improve while his organization did the same. This is not always the case and it's why 99% of project QBs go nowhere.
To an extent you are right and the analogy between Allen and Darnold is spot on.But IMO where the analytics crowd was wrong was their projections of Josh. Sam Monson claimed Josh would never be a better QB than Baker Mayfield. Also claimed that Josh would never complete higher than 58% of his passes and would need short dump off to do so.
To me, it shows a lack of understand in the role that the organization and coaching plays in the development of a prospect.
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The issue is EVERYONE thinks they can predict success in the NFL. When the truth is - it’s a big crapshoot. There are so many factors that result in the success or failure of a draft pick.
As you’ve seen in Moneyball there’s a natural tension between the analytics and old-school scouting crowd over whose method is best. Stats and data vs. measurables and intangibles.
With the analytics crew, it’s the classic case of data rich, insight poor. They wanted to be the smartest guys in the room. I believe they tried to project Josh using the same data for other top QB’s without considering the context or understanding how pros develop a prospect. That’s why his metrics rated so poorly compared to the other top guys. So hearing that a prospect that they rated so low, mentioned as a candidate for the top pick, just didn’t compute (pun intended!)
As a result they really began to dig their heels and double down on their numbers which said that the odds are unlikely Josh will be a good pro. This led to many snarky tweets to essentially say “see we told you so, he’s really bad.”
IMO it goes back to proving that their method is the best. Some of the skepticism on Allen is actually fair based on his less than impressive college numbers. But the bleak projections, that people like Sam Monson made, are just ignorant. It shows he has no idea about the nuance involved with developing a prospect.
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On 9/18/2020 at 3:19 PM, H2o said:
I don't know how many of you watch ND football, but this guy is the next player from the Irish who could be really good, if not great, in the NFL. Right now they have him ranked anywhere between Mid 1st Round to Mid 2nd Round on most of the sites I've seen.. The young man is gonna be a beast. He plays what is called the "Rover" position at ND, but he would fit perfect into our scheme taking Milano's spot if he is to leave. He filled up the stat sheet last year with 80 tkl, 13.5 tfl, 5.5 sk, 2 ff, 2 fr, and 4 pd. He came firing out of the gate against Duke last weekend with 6 tkl, 2 tfl, 1 sk, and 1 ff. Last year he was between 205lb-210lb. This year he is coming in around 220lb. Watch him last year below.
Wayyyyyy to early to be discussing Milano replacements!
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Here’s why I don’t like Aaron Schatz and the crew at PFF.
This is a clear dig at Bills fans who are slamming Schatz and FO for been completely incorrect on their projection. It’s also an attempt by FO to qualify their initial projection to connect Allen to Fizpatrick.
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There’s a very good chance that instead of bringing on a FA, Justin Zimmer could get activated from the PS and could probably see some playing time in the DL rotation. He’s a bigger guy and a decent run stopper
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4 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:
<yawn> Wake me when/if they ever say anything interesting.
Interesting? You’ll be sleeping for a while
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On 9/28/2020 at 4:59 PM, FlaFitz1 said:
Davis was one of 2 receivers taken in the 4th round with the other being Antonio Gandy Golden.
There was a total of 15 receivers selected before him - 6 in the 1st round, 7 in the 2nd round and 2 in the 3rd round.
The results through 3 games:
Ruggs - 4 catches on 8 targets for 59 yards
Jeudy - 13 catches on 24 targets for 173 yards
Lamb - 16 catches of 21 targets for 230 yards
Reagor - 5 catches of 8 targets for 96 yards
Jefferson - 12 catches of 15 targets for 245 yards and 1 TD
Aiyuk - 7 catches on 11 targets for 91 yards
Higgins - 8 catches on 15 targets for 75 yards and 2 TDs
Pittman Jr - 9 catches on 12 targets for 73 yards
Shenault Jr - 11 catches of 14 targets for 105 yards and 1 TD
Hamler - 6 catches on 12 targets for 78 yards
Claypool - 6 catches on 9 targets for 151 yards and 1 TD
Jefferson - 5 catches on 9 targets for 76 yards
Mims - IR
Edwards - 5 catches on 6 targets for 99 yards
Duvernay - 2 catches of 2 targets for 31 yards Note: only 2 games
Davis - 7 receptions on 7 targets for 103 yards and 1 TD
Gandy- Golden - 1 reception on 3 targets for 3 yards
Now I realize it's VERY early and 3 games doesn't not make a season nor a career. However, in this small sample size Davis is at the top of the group in catch rate, trails only Claypool in yards per reception, and is 6th in yards per game. I would love to see him be targeted more (especially after that toe-drag swag yesterday) and continue this. I'm also very glad he ran a 4.54!!!
I think he’s only going to have a larger role on the offense as the year continues. Given the pending cap situation we could see possibly see Gabe replace John Brown or Cole Beasley in 2021 -
He’s gotta be back at practice. I would bet he’s active this week
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4 minutes ago, Lagoon Blues said:
I heard Chris Simms break that down pretty well saying McVay kind of exposed McDermitt and then said I am sure that pissed him off. Going to be interesting how that develops on both ends. How our D adjusts and how others try the same approach.
Exposed how? It seems like the Rams took advantage of a bigger OL and fo the second level faster -
16 hours ago, Kingston Bills Fan said:
Once we start getting the high winds and snow he won’t be able to keep up these numbers, or keep up with QB’s that play in domes or in warmer weather. Like most years the weather in Buffalo will most likely be so bad that 200 yards passing will be a feat.
I’m not saying he won’t be the best QB in those games but overall numbers will be what matters.
And believe me I’m a huge Josh Allen fan. Just saying until we get a new stadium the second half of the seasons will be low pass yard games.
Not that the MVP is what matters a Super Bowl is what we want. But there so much argument in the media about MVP and I just think it’s unattainable for Josh in our facilities.
weather in Buffalo has and always will be highly overrated-
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3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:
I've said since the beginning of the year that I'm not buying the Lamar Jackson hype, and I'm not buying the Kyler Murray hype, either. I know they are really special athletes, and they're a couple of the best running backs in the league, but they limit their offenses.
The problem with Jackson is related to something McDermott (and plenty of other coaches) say all the time: You have to force the opponent to defend the entire field - sideline to sideline and line of scrimmage to the goal line. The reason is simple: If you can threaten to strike anyplace on the field, the defense has to spread out to defend all those places. When the defense spreads out, they create holes for the offense to attack.
You could see the problem almost immediately last night. One on side of the ball was a team, the Chiefs, that is perhaps the best in the league at attacking the whole field. They will hurt you anyplace you leave unprotected. The Ravens started out playing the game no more than 30 yards downfield, and as the game progress, they didn't even threaten that deep. The defense tightened and tightened. Sure, Jackson kept getting himself some nice runs here and there, but they essentially give up the ability to get 100-200 passing downfield to get an extra 50 or 100 out of Jackson. That's a bad trade.
The other thing that was apparent is that to be a premier QB, you MUST be able to stand in the pocket and direct the attack. You can't run an effective, all-over-the-field passing attack from outside the hash marks. Why? Because you can't threaten deep passes down the right side if your QB is standing outside the left hashmark. (Well, you can if your QB is Josh Allen, but that's something else.) Your QB has to be able to stand in, see the entire field, make decisions, and then make throws. Jackson couldn't do that last night. If he's going to make it, he has a lot of work to do as a pocket passer. But even that may not be enough, because if you're going to feature your QB running the ball, you need your receiver to stay shallow to block for him. So in your regular offense, your receivers aren't running deep routes, so the deep threat isn't there.
It was all pretty obvious watching last night. Mahomes stands in the pocket, makes decisions and makes throws. Jackson doesn't. Jackson will not be a premier QB if he doesn't learn to play that traditional QB game. He's way, way behind Josh Allen in developing those skills. Allen plays much more like Mahomes than like Jackson. McBeane have always said he was going to be a pocket passer. They've been working on making him one since he arrived in Buffalo. Baltimore went down the other road, building an offense that plays to Jackson's strengths, but that is an offense that by definition is limited. I think they're wasting their time. Jackson will hurt some teams sometimes, he'll force your defense to play a different style than their used to, but at the end of the season, Baltimore's offense will limit their ability to win big games.
Finally, to bring it back to Allen and the Bills, Mahomes wasn't doing anything last night that Allen doesn't do. Allen has the better arm, clearly, Mahomes is more poised and more able to attack weaknesses consistently - that's clear too. What's so encouraging is that Allen can learn to be a great field general, but good as Mahomes arm is, he can't learn to throw like Josh.
Bills are heading down the right road.
I see what you are saying and it makes sense but I’m not writing off LJ anytime yet only because the Baltimore offense is built around what he does well and because their defense (at least this year) is one of the best in the NFL.
Roman is trying to run the same ball control, big play offense that he installed in San Francisco and Buffalo. The only difference is that Jackson is a significantly better runner than Kaep or Tyrod.
Whoever said that Baltimore is not built to play from behind is exactly correct. When Lamar is down the entire offense seems to press really hard and ends up making some mistakes. It happened against Tennessee in the playoffs and it happened last night
But given what LJ and the Ravens can do on the ground and given their defense, I think Baltimore will always be a tough out
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1 hour ago, Mike in Horseheads said:
Tom Pelissero
@TomPelissero
·
19m
The #Titans had three new player positives and five new personnel positives for COVID-19, sources tell me and
@MikeGarafolo
. Both Titans and Vikings, who hosted them Sunday, will suspend in person club activities starting today.
NOTE: Please stay on topic so this topic doesn't get pulled
This really sucks. I’m glad the Bills didn’t play these teams over the past 2 weeks but it just takes 1 positive to affect so many players/teams -
I know what you mean. They were never going to shut out the Rams and they were out scored only 14-7. But I think the amount of time the defense was on the field, started to wear on the defense in the 4th when they were out scored 15-7.
That phantom INT was a pretty pivotal point in the game. Just like with the Houston game, one more stop or 1 less turnover could have resulted in a completely outcome.
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I’m not seeing any evidence statistically or otherwise that he’s fallen off. In fact Hyde and Poyer are probably the strength of the Bills defense. Has he dropped off a little? Maybe but I don’t think it’s a concern. You should be concerned for the Bills D-line and LB’s
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They no doubt are going to try. Also you’ll see them try to confuse the Bills Lb’s pre-snap, use play action and then throw the ball in the middle of the field to James White and Edleman
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On paper this makes sense. But given his last run with the Bills, he doesn’t seem like someone they’d want to give a 2nd chance to. Also, there has to be a reason why Marcel is still a free agent and why teams have not taken a look at him.
Ive heard people on Twitter clamor for Snacks Harrison. I’d be ok with that signing
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31 minutes ago, Augie said:
That was the worst call since the Saints got screwed out of a Super Bowl appearance.
Period.
This call was worse
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
Not just them. White and Wallace both blew assignments too.
Maybe they weren’t perfect. But from watching live it seemed like Edmunds was really bad on the field. -
3 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:
The point is it a penalty because it is a dangerous play.
Please tell me the announcers made up that comment?
Also thank you Mike Pereira for telling them that final PI call was correct, where again the announcers tried to convince fans it was the wrong call!!!
Mike seems to be wrong almost every time.37 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:Donald clearly grabbed his facemask and held on for a second. That was the non call that JA got flagged (arguing). The refs clearly struggled today. Up until that last play, the Rams got everything. The phantom INT changed the whole game and the announcers agreed. But non of this changes the fact that every player on the defense played terrible today. Poor tackling, poor coverage, no pass rush and no run stop. Sean has some serious work ahead.
I won’t say no pass rush. Goff wasn’t really throwing the ball deep. His route were all short completions that turned into big gains. -
I think given the situation, it’s a pass that didn’t need to be thrown
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Just now, Magox said:
I’m not worried about the defense. They will come around.
If McDermott and Frazier could clean up the mess with the 2017 defense, they can get this ship steered in the right direction
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2 hours ago, artmalibu said:
looking like Star is better than what some people think.
he always was better than what some fans gave him credit for...but he also didn’t make any difference at times either. The Philadelphia game was a great example of a team that ran all over the Bills when he was in the game.
I think it’s flawed to think his absences would’ve resulted in a significantly different result today
26 minutes ago, MJS said:It's a new season. New opponent's. New offenses. In the NFL you have to be continually adjusting.
Plus Edmunds and Milano are likely not 100%. Wallace his been figured out.
Wallace wasn’t the problem today and Milano defended Higbee today. Take a look at his stat line.
It comes down to Edmunds. He didn’t play well
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3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:
Was it the coaches who kept blowing coverage on Kupp and Woods?
Looked like it was the cornerbacks from where I was sitting but that is just me.
It was the LB’s and slot corners3 hours ago, Hampton Josh fan said:No excuse for Sean and Leslie. The plays that McVay kept running with Woods and Kupp they had no answer for. They couldn't tackle or stop the run. They played like they were accepting defeat. Dabol was great. He let Josh play his game. He rose to the occasion and put the team on his back. Diggs, Beasley and Davis are as good as it gets.
How much can you blame the coaches for players not tackling? When you watch the Woods TD, Edmunds should’ve been in perfect position to make a 3 yard stop. Instead he over pursued a d got burnt.
What did so many of the draft experts miss about Allen?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Draft Twitter is a thing! By that I meant the usual PFF crew and sites like the Draft Network etc