Beck Water

There was a clip (I think on buffalobills.com?) of one of the assistant coaches, I think the DB coach, rallying his troups on the sideline "yards don't matter! we don't care about yards! we care about points! no points!" This is entirely a hunch, but given the plays that have been diagrammed showing that the Bills pass rush was deliberately slanted to force Mahomes out in the direction they wanted him to go, I wonder if the Bills also slanted coverage to limit completions to Kelce to areas where they were best positioned to stop him?

I guess it's off-topic to this thread, but please say more? I haven't watched them at all, and all of a sudden pundits hailing them as the best thing since buttered biscuits.

So clue us - some of us like to visit other team fan boards to exchange views in a friendly way but Chiefs Planet is A Lot. Where is the decent, respectful KC Fan board? Is it a secret?

Some stuff on Poyer's injury. Said he fractured two ribs (small fractures) and punctured his lung, had a pneumothorax. Was ordered to rest, not to run or work out, which was hard for him mid-season. Had a second opinion from a lung specialist in addition to the doctor the Bills sent him to, both agreed early in the week that it was resolving, and he could probably play, but not fly. Said they worked up an additional rib protector for him. He was He said the Sprinter van "looked nice" but was "bumpy inside". I think the Sprinters have fairly stiff suspension and I imagine it didn't feel too good with the broken ribs. Said "would I do it again? Hell, No!" (but I bet if it were a crucial game he might change his mind) He's cleared to fly as of mid-week, but he's staying in Buffalo to "Get Right" As a podcast it's kind of a hard listen/watch. Just Jordan talking for half an hour. He's a clear speaker, not a lot of 'ums' or 'errs', but it's still A Lot. He comes across as genuine and open, but I think there's a reason most podcasts have a co-host to ask them questions and make comments. He needs some help with the production - it looks like he's got footballs coming out of his ears the way that mantle is placed - and he needs some kind of a personal "hook" to draw viewers. Show his dog? (can't ever go wrong with dogs) Talk about the Team Pets - what other players have pets and how do they handle them with all the travel, especially if their spouse/partner travels to watch the game? Talk about what it's like combining fatherhood with the rigidly scheduled life of a pro football player in season? Talk about his off-season training regimen and how much time does he really have to go off on vacation and have fun? Maybe pick a topic, or ask viewers to suggest topics, and focus on 1 each episode. If he REALLY wants to draw viewers, having Mrs. Poyer asking the questions would probably be a draw - but maybe the point is to build his own identity as a football player and not "husband of Rachel Bush".

Thank you! Classy post! Just a little note that the Bills are missing one of their two top safeties for the season (Micah Hyde), our all-pro CB Tre White is still on PUP after an ACL last November, and we were platooning two rookies at CB - one of whom played 40% of the snaps with a splint on his broken hand. Oh, also platooning a rookie WR in the slot as the vet we had rotating in broke his leg. Rookie has made some Dawg plays tho Injuries forcing rookies to step up, happen on most every team. Mahomes looking good, just needs to get a bit more comfortable with MVS and "tik-tok boy". Run game looking tough. I like the look of your rookie Pacheco. I think he'll be a problem.

LOL at Shady fanning that one guy who's saying the Bills are equal or better: "Hot Take" I assume that means

I'm sure the party responsible for the hiring takes opinions of players and team leaders into account. But my impression is that there's a fair amount of nepotism and, for want of a better phrase, "flavor of the month", involved in a lot of coaching hires vs. careful exploration of the coach's track record and due diligence. Fundamentally, some owners seem to take the viewpoint they're going to hire a guy who has all the ingredients to be a successful head coach - work ethic, drive, ability to be a leader of men. Then, they leave him alone and let him figure it out. That's the Steelers/Chiefs model which the Pegulas appear to wish to follow with McDermott. Then there's the "flavor of the month/short leash" model which teams like the Broncos and Houston appear to be following. I'm certainly not someone who was splitting hairs differentiating between sideline Surface smashing vs. Dorsey's booth outburst. One thing I'm sure is that Dorsey will face a lot of scrutiny as to whether his outburst was isolated or part of a track record that might prove embarrassing.

Elam had a pretty bad game against Pittsburgh. Yeah, he got a pick, but he got burned. I'm just curious why you feel the coach's choice to want Elam in there is clear when Benford started the first 2 games and saw roughly half the snaps? Playing Elam since Miami was due to Benford's injury, from which he's still recovering, not due to personnel preference. They played Benford almost 40% of the snaps vs. KC with a splint on his broken hand! Elam has given up 72% completions against him for an 88.3% passer rating when targeted Benford has given up 50% completions against him for a 67.5% passer rating when targeted Jackson 52% completions, 49.9% passer rating when targeted My guess would be: Jackson starts, White gets worked back in gradually with Benford and Elam, who gets the majority of the snaps depends upon how fast Tre White plays himself back into game shape and who we're facing/the coverage matchups the coaches see. Good problem to have, hopefully!

Good find and thanks for the screen shots. That is weird.

LOL will do her no harm in the WNY market!

The "11 of 12 angry men" was a reference to Chandler's line about the jury's verdict being in. Perhaps you're too young for the classic film "12 Angry Men" about a jury? LOL I'm not offended, and I'm sure we'd have a good chat over beer. But I don't think you're able to assess McKenzie's on-field performance very objectively. So we'll have to agree to disagree there. Fair enough on the "eye test". "Beauty is in the eye of the beholder" I guess. McKenzie ain't beautiful, but he has been contributing steadily. I have high hopes for Shakir, I know we agree on that.

Agree Shakir, if he continues to develop as he seems to be, will become the primary WR3. But I don't think we'll see McKenzie thrown to the curb in favor of Shakir taking over as some folks advocate unless he does commit what McD regards as a benchable mistake. I could be wrong, of course. We'll see Shakir active every week, splitting snaps, as Crowder did. We'll see the division of snaps fluctuate week to week depending on how teams are defending us, and we'll see Shakir's share grow. On the jet sweep/reverse/gadget plays: In addition to the man vs zone coverage aspect @HoofHearted alluded to, the problem with McKenzie in the "gadget" role is, if that's his primary role defenses key on it when he's on the field and it's blown up. That was the reason these plays declined in effectiveness at the end of 2019. They had to get McKenzie running routes at least half the time to make them effective, and in 2020 he was a pretty clear downgrade from Beasley there.

Errrr....if Dorsey's goal is to be hired as a HC, it's the opinion of the actual owners of the teams, not their employees (players) that are the question.

I think I've made my assessment of McKenzie's play clear. So far, he is not stepping up and "owning" his role as the starting slot as he appeared to do pre-season. He is a physically limited WR, and assuming Shakir continues to progress, he will earn snaps from McKenzie and eventually start. Those are almost exact quotes of points I've made in other posts. McK had an unproductive game vs. KC. Prior to that, he has contributed solidly this year. 65% catch %, 9.5 y/r, 9 1D, and 3 TD while getting 48% of the offensive stats is not "poor performance" for a #3 WR. What kind of numbers do you think #3 WR on other top passing teams have? Do they have fumbles or drops? McKenzie has been on the field for 172 snaps and targeted 27 times. What is he doing on the other 145 snaps? Is he running good routes and getting open? Is he blocking or at least getting in the way of defenders downfield as asked? I have some answers to that. Do you know? These aren't points of "willful blindness", they're pretty much objective metrics. And you can bet your ass that the Bills coaching staff uses them to assess player performance and adjust snaps accordingly. People are irate over the incomplete lateral scored as a "fumble", believing it was an "option" to McKenzie. Sal C. evaluated it as a fake jet sweep/screen to the L. Logic dictates you don't design an offensive play with "eye candy" pulling the D to the R, only to pitch to the R - and so far, Dorsey's plays appear solid and logically designed. Coach McDermott, when specifically asked in his presser, said "you have to understand what we were trying to accomplish there" and put no blame on McK. Coach has not hesitated to throw McK under the bus in the past when he screwed up. The logical conclusion is that McDermott did not regard that as an egregious screwup by McKenzie ergo it was not, in fact, a play designed as an option to McKenzie which he F/U. I think we have to leave it as "agree to disagree" because I"m not going to swerve away from logic and data to make it personal, as you appear to desire with your "wilful blinders" crack. I'll just say that in the past, you've made it clear that you are "down" on McKenzie for reasons that have nothing to do with his play on the field, so perhaps that interferes with your ability to objectively assess him or to evaluate an assessment of him.

I See No Lies. McKenzie had an unproductive game, and Milano was a total Beast. Frazier did some unique (to the Bills anyway) things in this game. He clearly came in with a plan B and a plan C. Plan B was to pull Milano and run a dime package with Neal. He did that on a couple plays and the results sucked - a holding call on Neal and that 42 yd reception by TikTok Boy. So he threw Plan B in the trash, and went to plan C, which was to run dime, keep Milano and Edmunds on the field, and use 3 DLmen (pull a DT I think). Re-reading PFF's description of "how they grade", I think their grading may be a total fail when confronted by relatively unusual schemes or unusual roles and responsibilities within a scheme.

What if I told you....Khalil Shakir and James Cook have a much higher drop % (18% and 14%), and that McKenzie has the same drop % as Gabe Davis on exactly the same number of targets (McKenzie has a higher catch % though, to be expected given the routes both run)? I get it, I get it. 11 of the Twelve Angry Men have spoken. Not saying you were part of it, but only 2 weeks ago the tar was hot and the pitchforks were brandished for Gabe Davis, now he's great!

😂 Figures! But supposedly, only the "best" of their 600 data analysts grade, so who knows? 😝

This season? Too soon to tell. Factors: 1) How many coaches get fired. You got an idea? I don't. I would say Lovie Smith and Josh McDaniels get the "first year" mulligan plus the "bad look" bonus for Smith. Same for Doug Pederson. Stefanski probably gets the Watson Suspension mulligan. My guess would be Kingsbury goes if the Cards don't at least match last year's record and make the playoffs - "to whom much is given, much is expected". Have the Lions seen enough of the Knee Biter? Their offense is good, but their defense sucks, my guess would be Campbell swaps DCs and stays another year. Maybe you have a good Crystal Ball, I don't. 2) The thinking of the teams that fire them. Rumor had it Carolina had a specific "big name" in mind when they kicked Rhule to the curb. Do the owners want to stay with the "hot offensive hands" trend, or is the pendulum swinging to "defense wins championships"? 3) Do the Bills win the Superbowl? Actual championship winning OCs are a markedly hotter commodity than runner-ups.

No rational disagreement possible. They clearly don't. But that's not how they market themselves. It's supposed to be neutral, unbiased, performance-based grading by carefully trained observers https://www.pff.com/grades And what they say about their graders: Their assertion is that each grade is reviewed by a group of 12-18 "senior analysts"

Well, I had that comment about both pro bowl and all pro voting last season, so that would be nothing new. I dunno who votes for all-pro, but being a football writer doesn't make someone a good X's and O's gal or guy with an understanding of how someone's job in a defense breaks down. But PFF advertises itself as producing unbiased grades based on each players role on each play and how well they execute it (or don't) It's nothing new there either for me to be skeptical of PFF grades, especially for position groups where play as a unit is key like OL and DL, but I can continue to be disappointed.

I see gaps on the offensive side. Ya gotta wonder why Knox isn't higher. He did some Grade A work. Davis should also be up there. I agree with your puzzlement on Cookie. Milano had a GREAT game where he did his job perfectly. Made key tackles, was in the right place at the right time to help force Johnson's INT I'm forced to conclude that the PFF graders pretty much don't understand team defense.

This could be a factor. This sounds like something that could be measured, in the same way that separation of WR from defenders is measured. Anyone know if it is? I had a good 'ol look for it there and didn't see it.

This

Actually, this is an excellent point. Question: do they have info on batted balls game by game?

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34825267/broncos-qb-russell-wilson-day-day-mri-hamstring Story on the Russ Wilson hammy