Beck Water

Got skinny. Only Josh Allen can beat the Bills.

I don't think it's cosmetic surgery. She lost a ton of weight and adopted a new style of makeup. I doubt it was an intrinsic desire on her part (though perhaps); there's a lot of pressure on women in show biz to conform to a fashion-model-thin ideal.

How do you figure that? I mean, Championship caliber is, as Championship caliber does. The Ravens got pretty solidly Whumped in the playoffs in 2019. I think the general perception of the 49ers in 2011-2013 was that they had an outstanding defense, and just not enough offense to match it.

Seriously? Who on earth do you think would say that? 423 total yards. 56% 3rd down conversion. 9 yards per pass attempt, 4.1 yds per rush attempt. The problems the offense had last weekend were all self-inflicted wounds. How do you think Roman would somehow solve incompletions on catchable balls, or a strip sack on the 12 yd line run in for a TD?

FWIW, Brian Baldinger gave Carmen props in one of his breakdowns this week Ah....No on the Skylar all day thing.

This off season, the Bills almost completely reworked the interior of their DL. Those moves don't get as much press as the signing of Von Miller, but they're quietly important. We parted from long time (and overpaid for ROI) 1TDT Star Lotulelei (Lotulazy to some); we moved on from undersized 1TDT Harrison Phillips, and from 3TDT Vernon Butler (who had two teams to confirm he underperformed his 1st round status). We signed DaQuan Jones and Tim Settle from Washington and re-signed 3TDT Jordan Phillips to pair with 1st round 3TDT Ed Oliver. Von Miller has said he can't do his work without great pressure up the middle, and we gave it to him. Their sack totals are modest (2 each I think) but Jones and Oliver have double-digit QB Hits. Aside from the loss of Von Miller for the last 7 weeks (which is huge, of course) the big loss is a stupid injury to Jordan Phillips. Anyone else playing for him is a big downgrade in the pass game, but a mixed bag in run D (Phillips can be great, or he can leave his gap) McDermott and Frazier also love their A gap blitzes. They don't blitz a lot though. We have like a 19% blitz%, they believe in pressure from the DL. Allen will fight like a swordfish against being sacked, with similar results The Bills used it for Xavier Rhodes and also Eli Ankou.

I apologize because I know you've explained this before, but I believe this is literally your lane - what does "smart money" mean literally? I know you're not using this as an idiom

According to the Ravens and Roman, he "resigned to pursue other opportunities" https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35481734/ravens-oc-greg-roman-resigns-amid-offense-declining-results

No Poyer 😬

You quickly get into a "chicken and egg" conundrum here. Other guys who came into the league tenuous as passers like Allen and Hurst, have evolved and improved. Lamar appeared to take a step forward as a passer last season, improving his Y/G to 240 Y/G from 180 or 200. This season he took a step back. Is he gonna become Joe Burrow, absolutely not, but I think there's a serious question as to whether the system and OC were maximizing his passing abilities.

I actually think you're totally nuts. We need (IMO) better passing plays and better integration of the run and pass game. When Roman was in B'lo, the fundamental design of his passing game and how it integrated (or didn't) with the run game was criticized, both by some knowledgeable posters here and by some knowledgable pundits, like former NFL QB type. The comment was that what was happening in the pocket didn't align with what was happening downfield. Roman has resigned, been fired, whatever, after 4, 2, and 4 seasons. In Buffalo, at least, there were intimations that he had a big ego, refused to accept input from anyone else, and insisted that the game plan be his and his alone. He would be "interesting" in the style of the curse "may you live in interesting times"

Can I say I think you're both right? Gunner right: Roman is the best run game coordinator in football and has created a system in which players like Kap, Tyrod Taylor, and Lamar Jackson flourish Chicago Bears should be on the phone Lamar in a pass-heavy spread offense will not work as well. He needs a coordinator who will design confusion into the run plays C. Biscuit right: Roman's system does seem to have an expiry where other teams start to "solve" it after 2-3 years, and it doesn't seem to evolve (enough) Lamar has not evolved that much, as a passer (not mentioned, but true: when Roman was in B'lo, pundits who know something questioned the design of the passing game - may be true with Ravens)

I did NOT see this coming. IMHO they might be pointing a finger at the wrong side of the ball there, although, I guess since they fired Wink last season and he helped take the Giants to the playoffs that might be a hard mistake to admit.

Yes 😀 When the Bills pass rush works, it works because we're getting consistent pressure up the middle as well as from the ends. The Bills D, if you haven't figure it out, is kind of weird. It manages to be a top D as far as points and yards, year after year. 3 out of the last years now. At the same time, we seldom send players to the Pro Bowl or have them recognized as All-Pro. It's sort of a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" creation. It's kind of like a boa constrictor, it gets in your way but you look at it and think it's just a snake and it kind of has a small mouth - what can it do to you? Then you get to the end of the game, and find that it's wrapped around your ribs 3 times and the jaws are coming down over your head. A distressing number of the points our D has given up were the result of offensive turnovers that put the D in a horrid position.

Hmmm, well. This is an open message board. Anyone can make an account - all you need is an IP address and an email account, which, with gmail etc is "dime a dozen" now a days. And, with the rise of mobile posting and inexpensive VPN, it's easy to post from multiple IP addresses. So what, exactly, do you think that banning a troll accomplishes from the mods' POV? It's like a hydra, you cut off one head, and one or more heads can emerge, which can be done in a way that takes time to identify. That means from one POV, it's easier to keep the trolls in known identities and monitor them. It's also (in theory) easier for the rest of the board to "see and avoid" Which returns us to the question "why do people feed the trolls? 🤷‍♂️" Or for that matter, the guys who may or may not be trolls, but have a knee-jerk negative reaction to everything and couldn't acknowledge a mistake or a valid counter-argument if it came with a brass band and a burst of confetti? Why do they?

What's Arians got to do with it?

Escape Goat

A bit of contact and a tug on the jersey, sure. Those are so common that WR practice running routes and releasing while dragging tires. I don't like to see the WR arms being held or waist being wrapped up before the ball gets there.

I think Beasley needed to sell it more by making a hands catch (so it's clearer if his hand is being held) and by fighting hard to come back to the ball. I really don't like the "let players play" thing where it comes to WR being mugged all game. For one thing, IME it seldom lasts all game, but instead gets called selectively at a really influential time when the degree of it passes some invisible line known best to the refs and not discernible to the players.

Mickey, I hear what you're saying, but I think it's a fair point in my follow-up posts, that several of the top QB in the playoffs like Mahomes, Burrow Cousins - who are certainly calculated risk-takers - do seem to throw a lower INT % and to protect the ball a bit better when sacked. And Allen himself fumbled less the two previous years and especially in 2020, threw for more yards and 4 fewer INT, so we know it's actually possible for him, while putting up sky high numbers. Are you trying to argue that no improvement is possible or should be expected, or that the choice is binary between Allen's current turnover picture or becomingTrent Dilfer? Because I think data contradict this.

Shouldn't that be DPI since he was hindering the receiver after the ball was in the air but before it arrived? I struggle with understanding these distinctions, so I could be mistaken. You're welcome, and when I was doing the breakdown I was cooking right along and it didn't register to me that the lateral had actually been scored as an "aborted snap". So thanks in return for getting me to take a 2nd look at that. There's probably this kind of distinction in one of those NFL stats services one must subscribe to and I've been too cheap to shell out for. But I'm not sure that's entirely fair to the WR since a number of times when there's a tip from the WR, the WR is trying kinda desperately to make a play on a ball that's too high. Also, look at the Diggs 1D catch where the ball went right over Shakir's outstretched finger tips. If Shakir had jumped, he might well have tipped it for a pick - and is that on him, or on a route design that created confusion by putting him in front of Diggs at the same time, with spacing that created ambiguity?

Interestingly, that scored as an "aborted snap", which seems strange now that I think of it. Anyway, the play looked to me like it was supposed to be an option between a handoff on the sweep to McKenzie (which didn't occur) or a screen to the L (McKenzie said this, McDermott said "you have to understand what we were actually trying to accomplish there") Josh improvised the pitch as an option when the screen was blown up (Allen actually said this) It's Josh Allen at QB and McKenzie should have been ready for "anything to happen" until the whistle blew, but it's not like the pitch was designed into the play. Unless of course, you wanna disagree with Allen, McDermott, and McKenzie about the play.

Just so we're clear, that's INTs and fumbles, not INTs. And a bunch of those are weird - for example, all the aborted snaps this season. If you look at number of INTs, strangely enough there are a bunch of top QB who are in the playoffs right up there. Prescott, Allen, Cousins, Burrow, Mahomes. Strangely enough, a lot of these are also the guys with the most passing attempts - Mahomes, Burrow, Cousins, Allen If we look at Int % to normalize for attempts, it gives a slightly different picture. Prescott is right up there with 3.5%. Cousins, Rodgers, Burrow, and Mahomes are lower, around 2 - 2.2%. Allen is a bit higher, at 2.5% Basically, if you're gonna run a relatively high risk passing attack, you're gonna have a few more INTs.

Um, No. Does not.

Actually "fumbles lost" is harder than one might think, or maybe I just don't know the right source for it. I was able to pull the cause of the fumble from box scores, so that wasn't too bad It's enough time and work I'm not inclined to do it for 8 or 10 guys, Sorry! So we'd need to look at overall sacks, then at strip sacks, and I'm sure there are data services that report this but I don't subscribe. It's on my list to look at my sports subscriptions and get more "bang for my buck" in terms of my personal enjoyment, so maybe I'll look into one of those since NFL+ seems to have no desire to fix their all-22. We can say a couple things though, using regular season stats. The 15 players with the most fumbles are all QB, and they're not all running guys, so I think it's a good guess that strip sacks are a common cause of QB fumbles. First is Justin Fields (16), second is Matt Ryan (15), Allen is 3rd (13 reg season), Trevor Lawrence 4th (12), Jalen Hurts 5th (9). Geno Smith, Justin Herbert, Aaron Rodgers all tied with 8, Kirk Cousins one back with 7. Of those, Fields took a league leading 55 sacks, Cousins and Smith 46, Hurts and Herbert 38, Allen 33, Rodgers 32. I'm going to guess that most of Cousins, Smith, Herbert, and Rodgers fumbles were on sacks, since it's a problem to have as many fumbles on QB/C exchange as Allen had this year and they rarely run. Fields and Hurts, can't say anything without diving into the details since they run, A Lot. That would put Herbert 8/38, Rodgers 8/32 (assuming most of their fumbles are on sacks) Allen 7 reg. season strip sack fumbles/33 sacks. So maybe around the same rate as a handful of pretty good QB. Tua 6 fumbles on 21 sacks. Basically, one fumble on every 4-ish sacks. That said, it isn't inevitable. Daniel Jones has 6 fumbles on 44 sacks (probably less, since he ran a lot this year), Burrow 6 on 41 sacks, Cousins 7 fumbles/46 sacks, Geno Smith 8/46 - around 15%, or 1 fumble every 7 sacks. Mahomes is in between, 5 fumbles, 26 sacks - 0 lost which is pretty incredible for something that's supposed to be a 50/50 proposition. My bottom line, Allen's rate of fumbling on strip sacks is probably at the high end of a number of good QB, so there would be room for improvement with ball security there. In the previous 2 years, Allen has fumbled less - 2020 9x (6), 2021 8x (3). I think it would be a fairly good guess that a lot of the difference would be issues on the QB/C exchange, since without, say, 4 of those 5 fumbles he would be at 9 which would be in line with the previous 2 years. He took more sacks this year, 33 vs 26 in '20 and '21. Not sure if that reflects a trend away from taking off when he's pressured (I don't think so, but can't say for sure)/better defense at containing him, OR, if our OL is just giving up more pressures and sacks because Saffold and Brown just aren't very good in the pass pro. Hope this interests someone. Obviously, a change in procedure to maybe sneak in a little more QB/C exchange work with the 2nd and 3rd string guys could help, but it would have to be against a defender because I'm sure they're fine when they just practice against air. I think the main thing is if we want Josh to stand in the pocket and throw, we got to get him a better OL that can protect him and enable more of a run game.