Beck Water

Since you're the chosen pregame thread, might consider to edit the title?

PSA: it has been claimed to me that if one replaces the 'x' with 'twitter', it will embed This has not worked for me, but perhaps I am missing some magic ingredient

Even Salah and Douglas should be able to see the point of "Dance with the One That Brung Ya". If Wilson gets the Jets to the playoffs, it will be because he's rallied the team and it's become, in a real sense, 'his team'. They could give Colin Kaepernick a try (ducking)

Well, that’s nice and all that, but iF the Jets make the playoffs without Mr Rodgers being in their neighborhood - it will be because Zach Wilson has stepped up and Hackett has adapted the offense to work optimally with Dalvin Cook and Breece Hall and whatever Wilson can bring. So IF they make the playoffs with a different QB driving, it might not be the smartest move on the planet to try to plug Mr Rodgers back into their game 4 months post-Achilles-surgery

Have we had this upthread? Didn't find on quick look. It's a "must watch" https://twitter.com/BuffaloBills/status/1702125806049169415?s=20 "Still Here"

Whew.

Whisky Tango Foxtrot is up with Chandler Jones? https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2023/09/former-syracuse-football-star-calls-out-raiders-owner-after-being-ruled-out-vs-buffalo-bills.html Kind of sounding a bit "Incognito" (if you know what I mean)

You're welcome, anything for my fellow fans!

You know I love ya, Lieutenant, but the premiere Allen partisan package *is* why some people say it's "out of bounds" to criticize Allen on this board. I don't see it that way. If a QB who has shown that he's very well capable of better now has some mediocre metrics that are correlated to winning (like TD/INT) along with some that are outright putrid - like being 1 off the league lead for INT (after adjustments for things like maybe he's played more games than the other guys) - then I think fans should be able to talk about it and be concerned, hoping that Josh and the Bills organization have the intestinal fortitude to face it and fix it.

You know, I presented some data. People can (and have) quite legitimately question the relevance of the data, raise points about what is or isn't included in the data, or just say "I don't like your data" (data doesn't care, but their feelings are legit) But when it comes to the ad hominem of questioning how long the data preparer has been a Bills fan and has been around the last few decades - C'mon Man. I believe I'm on record about how old I am and how long I've been a Bills fan and what my oldest Bills fan memories are. But the data are the data, regardless. PS we should never have traded Lamonica. I hope so, and I hope Josh and the Bills leave no stone unturned to get him there. Go Bills.

https://theathletic.com/4867821/2023/09/16/josh-allen-bills-quarterback-turnovers/ Your Gilbride quote is interesting, because when Dorsey was grilled during his presser on how he tries to help settle Josh down ---- one of the things he said he does is call the plays Josh is most comfortable with, the ones he can "do in his sleep" So if I'm interpreting your quot of what Gilbride said correctly, Dorsey may be doing the OPPOSITE of what he should be doing, since the clear, easy to read stuff outside the numbers make Josh most predictable. Isn't it a bit of an oxymoron (or some such term) to say that Allen has not displayed the ability to be patient and then say he can for stretches of time. If he can, than he has?

Well, if this dude wants to be salty about missed roughing penalties by the Bills, what about Q Williams throwing himself in the air and landing on Allen's head after Allen was already down?

IMO you're making a valid point, and it's why I feel he had more games that showed him to be an "elite QB" after the UCL injury than @GunnerBill's "one elite game". I felt he had games where he was showing patience, judgement, and care with the ball - just not racking up 'elite passing numbers' I've also made the point in other threads that the UCL clouds any assessment of Dorsey as an OC and of Josh's QB play for last season. That said, IMO some of the TO Josh had at that point - the Detroit game, the Bears game, the Miami playoff game - had nothing to do with his elbow and everything to do with field reads/decision making, and were very concerning. OK

Fair point. A couple years back - and by "a couple" probably 2016, 2017 or so - I was intrigued by an apparent focus on YPG as a metric for QB quality. So I spent a good bit of time shakin' and bakin' different QB stats and whether they are or aren't correlated with winning. Some stuff I learned: -INT strong negative correlation with winning (more INT, less winning) - that's a "Durrr" --ratio of TD to INT was a strong correlation with winning -Fumbles only mild correlation, unless they're turnovers (then ~ same as INT) -sacks same, mild correlation unless strip sack. -YPG actually mild negative correlation (more passing yards, less winning). I think that's because teams tend to pass like mad when they're behind. -BUT correlations of other parameters with winning improved dramatically if I put in a "floor" of ~220 ypg passing I don't think any of this is startling when you think about it, but, to your point about many variables - with INT and TD/INT ratio, I am looking at two specific variables that I previously sorted out as strongly correlated with wins

He kind of stunk up the joint in the 2nd half at GB and was not playing well in the Jets game, prior to the UCL. So I dunno. If that's your interpretation based upon reading my post, then I would have to say that your reading comprehension, using this post as datum, needs help.

I share the concern that we're edging into Carson Wentz territory. I do agree with the point that there are significant differences between Wentz on-field accomplishments and Josh's before he "fell off", but I think people forget how splendid Wentz looked his 2nd and 3rd seasons before injuries, and even his 4th season before the "wheels fell off" in his 5th year. The Eagles record in 2019 was 9-7; they had 5 losses which were 1 score games. Win 3-4 of them, earn a different playoff draw, and the narrative changes. Drafting Kincaid in the 1st round and Torrence in the 2nd were supposed to be significant moves for the offense ("favors" in your parlance) Ditto Cook in the 2nd last year

This is where I am. I can argue the "just once" as I think he's had more good games than that - games where if that were his floor, we wouldn't be having this discussion (I would count maybe 5 as good games), but that's one of those "OK, define more precisely what elite means to you" arguments and doesn't change the fact that we're at > games where Josh Allen was "the most valuable player for BOTH teams" than we are games where he was solid to great in that time frame. I think the throw to Gabe was arguably a poor throw, where the decision wasn't horrid and better ball placement would have made it 'Gabe's ball, or no one's'. But the other 3 TO were mental crap.

What do you want? The fan base should only fart unicorns and rainbows while singing "everyone is beautiful in their own way?" Look, I'm the first in line to shoot down random verbiage criticism "he sucks" "he looks frantic" blah blah or unsubstantiated crap "he can't read defenses" "he doesn't prepare". But I'm not going to ignore Cold Hard Football Facts. We all hope Allen gets whatever advice and mentoring he needs and makes whatever mental alterations he needs to rein it in. But right now it's not good.

That's actually, and sadly, not an unreasonable way of looking at some (we can argue about what is meant by "many") of Josh's games.

I thought you were pointing to the problem (both positive and negative) of omitting run game contributions.

Fair Feel free to ignore thread and me

These are the data. They didn't take me where I expected they would when I started crunching, or where I wanted them to. "De rules are de rules and de facts are de facts and when the Cheese Drawer opens, ya gotta pay the tax" As stated elsewhere, the last time I looked almost all of Josh's fumbles of the last 2 seasons involve the passing game, not the run game. It's a fair point that I could include fumbles, but we'll be including fumbles for every QB - and the way data is stored on the free sites I use, that's non-trivial for me to add. His running is a huge part of the Bills run game, but Dorsey has publicly stated they are limiting designed runs, so....

Now hear me out 😈 I started out 'salty' about the "Josh Allen most interceptions in last 2 years". I said, said I, "but Josh has the most continuous starts of any player, let alone QB - so how does that play into it? And also, he throws a ton of passing TDs, so surely that compensates". Since I'm a datageek, here's what I did: -pulled regular season data from 2021, 2022, and 2023 out of pro-football-reference -Excel pivot table to sum data by QB -calculate interceptions, TD, 1D, and Yards per game, to normalize data for different numbers of starts -multiply by 35 games to get it out of decimal form that is hard to interpret when we're used to thinking about integer numbers This actually isn't what I thought I was going to find. I thought when normalized by starts, Josh Allen would NOT be leading in # of INT. And he isn't - but he's one behind Davis Mills, tied with Sam Darnold, and one ahead of Matt Stafford and Andy Dalton. Yikes!!!!! That is not actually company you want your 6 yr vet, big-$$ QB to keep! Or, I thought if he was still "up there", he would also be "up there" in passing TD to compensate. So here are the data. (Click to make it readable). Sorted by TD/INT, Josh Allen is currently 17 on the list. Now obviously, this isn't the be-all end-all of QB evaluation, since some of the QB listed above him by this metric, are literally unemployed at the moment (Trevor Siemian, Carson Wentz), are backups (Case Keenum) or are retired (Brady). I recall Mike Tomlin benching Mason Rudolph after a multi-interception game, saying "we just need someone who won't kill us" (with turnovers). So as a metric for how much a QB contributes to scoring vs. how much a QB hurts the team by ending possessions with the other team in position to score, I thought this was worth looking at. And by this metric, allen is below starting Rodgers, Purdy, Goff, Cousins. Mahomes, Geno Smith, Burrow, Herbert, WILSON (!!!!!), Hurts, Prescott, and Tua. Thoughts? (I can sort it by other parameters if anyone cares). FWIW, my thoughts are that Josh's offensive contributions are still strong enough to allow a team to win with him provided they have a good run game and top defense. But if we're taking Josh out of the run game, and with aging safeties and a new MLB, I'm not sure we have enough of those last two to get there. So if we want to win, Josh, Joe Brady, and Ken Dorsey better figure it out - and fast.

Got it, Thanks. I don't have a twitter account and it's clunky now to access from a web browser. https://x.com/_IsaiahMcKenzie/status/1702288617450668429?s=20 should read "Maddy I don't know why you're apologizing, I loved it! ♥️✊" So much for the notion that this was some bizarre mischaracterization of Diggs behavior, I guess.

Now this was truly funny! Belly laugh of the day 🏆