Generic_Bills_Fan
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Posts posted by Generic_Bills_Fan
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I think our best scenario(outside of getting the 1 or 2 seed) is we go into a week 17 game with Miami thats meaningless for us but the dolphins need a win to make the playoffs and then we get a rematch with Miami in the first round of the playoffs. Idk if we could hold the 3 seed playing backups against Miami though so maybe thats impossible. If you could somehow guarantee me the bills beat the steelers maybe a Miami win over kc would be a good thing
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14 minutes ago, Gugny said:
I don't think the NFLPA would allow them to play more than one game in a day.
Theyd let it happen to the Steelers though 🤣 3 games in 11 days is pretty ridiculous but I won't complain if it gets us a win
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13 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:
How can you toss out the head to head in the first sentence and use it in the second sentence?
Head to head does not apply in a three team scenario if the three teams haven't all played eachother...so the first use of the tiebreaker rules is to eliminate one and make it a two team tie and you restart from the top of the tiebreaker rules...they don't do a great job explaining it on the website but ill try to track down the relevant quotes 🤣 its honestly a little silly that we lost to kc but are undefeated against common opponents with kc and can eliminate them but that is the way it is lol if kc had played pitt it would be a different story...a kc win over pit wouldve had them at 2-0 against us two and couldve eliminated us both in one tiebreaker rule. If pitt beat kc we'd all be 1-1 head to head and the same thing described before of kc getting eliminated on common opponents would happen...and by eliminate i mean eliminate from the #1 seed of course lol
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12 minutes ago, Motorin' said:
Just plugging things into the NY Times Playoff simulator.
Right now the Bills have a 1% chance of winning the Conference. That grows to 7% if the Bills beat the Steelers and the Fins beat the Chiefs.
The Bills then have an 18% of winning the Conference if they beat the Broncos and the Saints beat the Chiefs. But that grows to 100% if the Steelers lose one more to either the Browns or the Colts, and the Bills, Steelers and Chiefs finish in a 13-3 tie.
Yea I screwed up with knowing how many conference wins the teams would likely have in a three way tie in my last post but we would be the 1 seed at a three way 13-3 tie. Chiefs get bounced on the win percentage against common opponents tiebreaker so it comes down to us and the steelers and we have h2h
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11 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:
The only problem with your logic is if there's a 3 way tie at 13-3 which you're showing, then I don't think the fact that we beat Pitt and lost to KC comes into play as Pitt never played KC. Likely next tie breaker would be conf record which based on your take would also be even, each have 2 conf. loses, then next I believe would go to record in common games which by a quick account KC gets the nod for #1, we'd then drop to #2 though it doesn't appear any of the 3 teams have enough common games to qualify so then may go to strength of victory whatever that means?
Think the only was we could get to #1 is KC loses 3 out of 4 and we win out.
I've been looking into this all day rather than working haha you are right that head to head between all three teams doesn't apply but they go down the tiebreaker list until one of the 3 teams is eliminated and then start back at the top with head to head to break the remaining tie between the two teams...wed have the chiefs at winning percentage in common games and then we'd win the head to head with pitt i think
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19 minutes ago, Watkins101 said:
That only applies if all 3 teams have played each other I believe.
Why would KC have 3 in conference losses? They would have to drop 2 of their last 4 games to make it to 13-3, and their last four games are dolphins, saints, falcons, and chargers. I would think one of those 2 losses would be to the saints if they were going to drop 2.
Right i screwed that up haha good call third loss would probably be the saints...so it would go to common games ill have to check on that...we did beat the raiders and dolphins so I think we would eliminate the chiefs based on common opponents and then you'd walk through the tiebreaking procedure again for us vs steelers and we'd have head to head
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17 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:
Patriots seem to have gotten their defense back.
Patriots could beat both us and miami...I think thats our biggest test left for the folks that think we are gonna win out and get the 1 or 2 seed...Miami is definitely fighting an uphill battle compared to the other wildcard teams schedules
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They are getting payed to attract viewers and get clicks on the internet so hot takes ultimately help them
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28 minutes ago, Motorin' said:
I thought that too, but just looked. The first tie breaker in a 3 way tie is head to head win percentage. KC didn't play Pitts, so there'd be no way to pass KC in a tie breaker.
Take this with a grain of salt im only 75% sure this is correct lol I think they use the wildcard tiebreaking rules to determine home field for division winners...so the head to head is not applicable since all three teams didn't play eachother and you'd drop down to conference win percentage...if we won out we'd have two conference losses and kc would have 3 so that would eliminate them leaving only pitt and we have the head to head over pitt
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28 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:
KC isn't going to lose to either Atlanta or the Chargers. Case closed.
I think the op mentioned kc losing to dolphins/saints although a dolphins win over kc will be pretty scary for us going into our night game with the steelers 🤣
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1 hour ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:
Everyone seems to think the 2 seed means nothing but obviously it still does because it guarantees two home games if you win the first. Same as always except you have to play the first week as well
You also avoid the 1 seed for as long as possible and give one of these unpredictable teams like the browns or titans a chance to beat them. I think im more worried about our pats game than the steelers...pats aren't nearly as good of a team on paper but we don't match up well
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I think they'd rather shore up the running game and play outdoors...strong armed quarterback who can make plays with his legs is a big advantage in bad weather provided you are decent at running the football which we have not been 🤣
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6 minutes ago, wvbillsfan said:
I’ve seen Wallace in on every tackle this second half
Theyve thrown at him i think every play 🤣
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Just now, HappyDays said:
No he didn't... the trick play was sniffed out. Lee Smith should have come back and settled in the open spot. Nothing else Allen could have done.
Right josh wouldve had to lead him right into the defender
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3 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:
Baker lit it up today, that being said Id still rather have Josh
Josh has had zero running game to lean on
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2 minutes ago, stevestojan said:
We beat the Chargers by 10. That’s currently embarrassing.
Were also the only team to beat the pats in the last 5 games lol
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I think when we were -3 it mightve been partly due to the uncertainty of not knowing where the game was going to be played maybe?
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Edmunds isnt playing absolutely awful anymore too that helps lol. It was incredible that not only were we not getting killed with our horrible linebacker play but we actually were winning most of our games 🤣
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1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:
and there is no denying it!!!!KC, Pitt, Buffalo, Tenny,
Then there are the Cravens and Brownies with “questionable” QB,s
Last season at this time the Bills were still “pretenders” and ranked 15th to 20th in the league.
The NFC isn’t what it used to be.
GB, Seattle, NO. Of those Taysom might carry them into the future.
AZ at 6-5 is in the top 15ish as well.
the Rams - too many issues to say they are contenders.
Tampa and Grandpa 👴 Brady are fighting for a playoff spot.
People want us to go out and play like the afc championship winner every week and that isn't even close to realistic. Even those cheating patriots dynasty teams would go out and get pantsed against a good team from time to time (except in 07 when they didn't get pantsed til the superbowl of course 🤣) the regular season success the chiefs and steelers have had this year is far from the norm for even a great team but in the playoffs it only takes one loss to spoil it all...ask the ravens about last year they'll tell ya
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7 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:
Would you rather play like the Bills did and win by 10? Or play like the Chiefs did and win by 3? Which game was "closer" ?
The Chiefs were playing pretty close to flawless football against a pretty good team. They were up 27-10 before taking their foot off the gas and letting the Bucs back into the game.
The Bills were playing pretty decent football (up until the 4th Quarter), against a fairly mediocre team (Chargers are talented, but have a bad record). I'm not trying to be too negative here, but we went into the 4th quarter up by 10, and then proceeded to turn the ball over 3 times on 7 offensive plays. We're very lucky the Chargers didn't turn those turnovers into more than 3 points (with all due respect to our defense).
The way the Bills played would result in a win maybe 33% of the time. The way the Chiefs played would be a win about 95% of the time.
Why is it luck when our defense makes plays but not luck when the opposing defense makes plays lol I just dont understand this double standard we have. They are lucky we fumbled twice in a row while running the ball down their throat to close out the game then if our defense 'got lucky' shutting down their offense after turnovers. You have a 7+ point lead since early in the game and that only results in a win 33% of the time? 🤣 the bucs were getting beat up all game yardage wise but hung around and needed one stop to have a shot at a game winning drive...much like our game against the chiefs actually.. the chargers never were in a position to do better than tie against us.
Bucs had a considerably better chance to win than the chargers did
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1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:
Allen is not putting up 300-yards+ every week. And you can see the scenario where in the Playoffs he's stuck in the mid/high 100's passing the ball, looking for a playmaker.
I think we all look at the Bills and conclude they need to do more work on the Offensive Line, get another Defensive Lineman or two, draft a Linebacker, another Cornerback, and possibly position yourself for a Safety.
But Tight End is a black hole on this roster, where you literally get no production from the position group.
Keep Knox, but Sweeney/Kroft are fringe targets, and Lee Smith is a borderline NFL player at this point.
Interesting thought on an Elite RB added to the squad. As long as we don't add another broken veteran - Gore, Ivory, Tolbert, Yeldon.
That is kind of hard to evaluate at this point... the games hes had 150ish yards passing we've made a concerted effort to establish the run even if it wasn't really working. I dont think they wanted josh dropping back to pass too much with bosa absolutely terrorizing our offensive line. I think he's had a deep ball PI penalty in most of those games too. the difference between 175 passing yards and 220 is pretty huge optics wise when you're reading a stat sheet.
Even when considering only afc playoff squads there really isn't another team with a pass rusher like bosa.
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55 minutes ago, NoHuddleKelly12 said:
And yet, his team still in contention for even winning their division outright.
(saddest sack division that it is...)
Thats kind of even more pathetic for doug pederson really lol Cowboys lose their quarterback and their backup qb for 2 games...giants lose saquon in week 2 and are clearly rebuilding...Washington had to make a qb change mid-season cuz haskins wasn't buying in...and despite all that eagles are 2nd in the division with 3 wins? Insane
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8 minutes ago, stevewin said:
Media doesn't ever take this into account when they talk about his poor accuracy and low percentage first year - dude was running for his life, chucking the ball just trying to make a play WiTh No WeAPoNs - it wasn't exactly a high percentage passing offense
Our receivers were getting absolutely zero separation as well outside of Robert foster occasionally beating someone deep. Josh Allen walked into an awful situation and somehow survived its kind of amazing. No idea how he was 5-6 as a starter with that squad. Thats why the 'we shouldve drafted mahomes' crowd is kind of off base in my opinion...its very possible we wouldve butchered mahomes' development lol he sat behind Alex Smith and learned the offense and when he got the starting job had a ton of weapons. We did the exact opposite to Josh because Peterman was so bad that it was literally torturing the dude by making him start 🤣
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I like to think that the defense was so bad early in the season because edmunds was playing historically awful due to playing through an injury and aj klein not knowing the scheme well yet but that might be wishful thinking 🤣 i think we should see some substantial improvement going forward
The titans game felt like we sold out to stop Derrick Henry and thought we could get away with some single coverage on receivers and the gameplan very much did not work especially in the red zone. I dont want to say its good that we lost to them earlier in the season but I think a rematch helps us more than it helps them. Losing the turnover battle 3-0 really hurt us in that one the yardage totals didn't really scream blowout. And if im remembering correctly we had one of those 'our receiver tipped a catchable ball in the air' type interceptions early in the game.
If we end up playing the chiefs were gonna have to force some turnovers...that is one of the best football teams in recent memory.
KC at Mia. Who do we want to win?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Definitely the smartest bet lol Miami is very middle of the pack on all the football analytics sites for the folks that care about that stuff...im not sure where these 'Miami is the best thing since sliced bread' posters were coming from 🤣 they just had a pretty big soft spot in their schedule and they finish with 4 tough ones.