Chaos

Our future oline coach

Since there is no rush to win, I think a good idea would be to have a couple of "raffles" each year, where the winner gets to call the plays for the game that week. This would give hundreds of thousands of people the chance live out their dream of coaching an NFL game. This seems much fairer than selfishly worrying about one guy winning a super bowl before he has reached the appropriate age.

We have proven they we are a top 8 team in the NFL.

After watching Kincaid make catches look fairly routine, that others on the Bills routinely don't catch, I have become a huge believer that good hands is at the top of the list for what the Bills need. Maybe just fan frustration. But if he lived up to the "best hands in class" billing, I could live with other limitations.

I find this combination of loyalty and the perception of another fanbase's loyalty fascinating:

The word "probably" is pretty critical in understanding my post. What we do know is that fully adjusted for the game pressure of the NFL Championship game, the Lions are not very good at converting 4th and 3.

The one that did not have a fetish about making sure Josh Allen did not run. That seemed like the only meaningful difference between the two offenses.

The punt against the Bengals in the playoffs amplified this belief. I am still bitter about that call.

Maybe. But he does not seem to understand when to call timeouts, and when wasting a time out is likely to create a problem later on.

Our you suggesting that McNabb is a Mahomes level QB?

Yes, there is a chance.

No meaningful room for improvement in terms of actual productivity. Best is best. The entire rest of the team lags so far behind our QB play, its absurd to worry about QB play.

I am a huge believer in making decisions based on analytics. But I don't thinnk football head coaches in general have demonstrated mathematical genius ( I am not saying I am). The 4th and 3 play call with a 14 point lead in the NFC championship game, I think is an example of not properly understanding the math. I will start with an analogy. Imagine a dice game, where the rules allow you to pick either of the following situations A) rolling 1-5 pays you even money B) rolling a 6 pays you 100-1. If I tell you you get to roll the die 50 times, the expected return for A is that you would roll 1 to 5 5/6 or 42 times $42 dollars (assuming a $1 bet each time and the expected return on B is that you would roll 6 eight times and get a return of $800. Any rational person would select B as there choice. While the numbers are extreme this is similar to the 'analytics' of going for it on fourth and 3 on the opponents 20 yard line. Over a large number of interations, the correct statistical decision is to go for it on fourth and 3. Now imagine if after your fifty rolls, you have collected you $800 based on your selection of B. You made the wise decision. However, lets say the rules of the game change (like in the second half of an NFC championship game). Now there is only 1 roll of the die. If you roll a 1-5 you get to keep your $800. If you roll a 6, your $800 grows to $900. A rational person would always select A in this scenario. However I feel as though Dan Campbell was confused by the excitement of winning with analytics over the course of a 17 game decision, and tried to apply a season long anaytic concept to a very small remaining set of plays. And he made a mistake. Not quite as extreme as my dice example. But a field goal from that spot is probably 90% plus successful (2.7 points) , and a conversion was probably 70% likely (4.9 points expected value, if we assume the conversion leads to a TD 100% of the time). The difference in expected points between 2.7 and 4.9 was not worth increasing the likelhood of zero from 10 to 30%.

McDer McDermott took over an 8-9 team. He went 9-8 the next year. Then got Josh Allen. The only meaningful comparison to the drought era coaching is that he was 1 game better than the comparable roster Rex Ryan had the year before.

We’re the chiefs rams and bengals perennial champs when their current head coaches took over ?

Allen is the most productive QB in the NFL. Full Stop. Perfection js not achievable. Full Stop. The least problematic position on the Bills the last five years had been QB. Just stop.

By many accounts Ben Johnson will be Washington's head coach starting in 2024.

Campbell and McDermott have pretty different public personas. There teams play with different styles. Would you trade McDermott for Campbell. Do you think the majority of Lions fans would trade Campbell for McDermott?

Or intead of a puppet, you could insert the word scapegoat.

There were a lot of people on this board who were convinced Doug Whaley would be snapped up if the Bills released him. I think McDermott would get another HC job eventually. Not sure about "tomorrow". But mostly not sure the future is predictable on these sort of things.

Joe Flacco got it right.

Josh needs to stop scoring so fast. For example if he hadn't scored so fast against the Bronco's the Bills would not have had the opportunity to get 12 men on the field to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory.

Entire dline disappeared against the Chiefs. No need to worry about who stays and goes from the current group.

No, at the two minute warning I wanted the Bills to have a 14 point lead. I think we all know the outcome of Reid vs. McDermott close games.