Chaos

Postional value of a CB is higher than S.

Combine measurables would suggest Turner ahead of Martin.

Bills met with Brents, if that is an indicator for you.

if the board falls the way you project, I think the Bills would take one of these three players before Martin.

Further reading, leads me to believe Tippmann is now more likely than not to be available at 59, making him my estimate of being the most likely pick.

The only three i expect to be on the board, are the ones in green. The other seven picks, are contingencies. I think last night, it is quite possible the Bills had Kincaid ranked in the top 15, and moved as soon as they realized they could get him without giving up massive draft capital.

Literally everyone else who posted understands concept. It is not a list of 10 people where if they pick any of them, i claim i am right.

I am suffer from a lack of emoticon comprehension.

I think Tippman is 50/50 to be there at 59. As I mentioned, I would be excited about that pick. I would expect him to beat out Ryan Bates as starting gaurd for this season, take over for Morse next year. I think a very good fit for the Bills. Four of the five teams picking right in front of the Bill probably have Center on their needs list. I think the Bills might have to trade up to 50 or 52 to secure Tippman.

In past years I think I would have agreed with this. However I think the Chiefs and Eagles rewrote the book on drafting. Competitive are following the playbook and focusing on getting immediate impact players. I am not sure Benton would update DT this season, whereas I think all of the players in the list have at least a chance to upgrade a postition on the Bills. If the Bills go for a DT in this draft, i think it might be for a giant run stuffer. Visions of Ed Oliver getting blown up the Bengals makeshift oline last year has to be a cause for nightmares at one bills drive still. But is it shadow yapping

Reading comprehension is an important skill. Hidden as the second sentence of my original post is this important bit of information. This post has my best projection for the second round. I posted it a few minutes ago. https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/247044-the-bills-pick-at-59-will-follow-this-board-of-players/

This post is a followup to this post, where I correctly projected Dalton Kincaid as the Bills first round projection. https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/246918-the-bills-first-round-selection-27-will-be-offense-and-from-among-these-five-players/ The second round is a bit harder to project in estimation. But I believe the Bills are committed to the offensive side of the ball, and will be targeting options to improve the oline. This will be balanced against BPA options at Lineback and Cornerback, if the Oline opportunities don't line up. I have come up with my Bills miniboard of ten players. This the order I think the Bills would rank these 10 players right now, of those that are left. The highest ranked player on the board who is left is who I expect the Bills too take. The three in yellow, I think have little to no chance to be available at 59. However, if by some miracle they were, they would be the choices. The reason they are highlighted is because I think the Bills will consider trading up to select one of them. The next four in white, I also expect to be off the board at 59, but there is some realistic chance they could be there. If they are, I think the Bills would take them in that order. The players in green are players I expect to be available 59 (This is a fairly big projected slide for Dawand Jones, but I think he will fall this far). If he and Bergeron are both available, I expect Dawand Jones to be picked ahead. He does NOT seem to be a process guy, but he has a better chance to outright win the starting job from Spencer Brown to start the season. He is also more likely to bust than Bergeron. If neither of all of the top 9 are off the board, I think the Bills will go defense and will take Tryique Stevenson, who I think will be available. I would be pretty exited personally with any of Avila, Porter, Torrence, Tippman, or Jones. I am not sure they others will be impactful this 2023 season. I do think they all will be enventual starters somewhere in the NFL. : Further reading, leads me to believe Tippmann is now more likely than not to be available at 59, making him my estimate of being the most likely pick. Important note. Internet speculation about a DHOP trade runs rampant. That would of course throw off everything. No idea if that speculation is based on anything real.

@HOUSEhow many got the first round right?

https://sports.yahoo.com/antonio-brown-tweets-returning-nfl-192007072.html https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/did-antonio-brown-sign-with-the-ravens-controversial-wr-sparks-rumors-of-nfl-return-with-bizarre-twitter-post/ar-AA1aunjX

That would be fun. And I would not be opposed. But I think he will be gone before 59, and trading up twice for TE's in the same draft, when one of your most expensive players is a TE, seems like career suicide, if you don't win the super bowl in 2023.

It detracts from the experience of listening to the melodic tones of Roger Goodell's voice.

I would put Joe Tippman in that list. I would probably take Downs out of list. If Tippmann and Begeron were both available, I would rank Tippman higher. In terms of guessing the Bills pick, I think between Tippman and Begeron, I would expect Tippman, 1) I think he is the better prospect and 2) the public commitment to Spencer Brown. 3) Morse has a much higher injury risk than the average NFL player, and Tippman would seem to be better than any option at that spot. I would expect Tippman to beat out Ryan Bates for the starting guard spot.

I think if you lumped the TEs and WRs into a category called "pass catchers" he sort of jumps off the page as the best help for the Bills. Two weeks before the draft, I would not have thought he had a chance to fall to the Bills, but about a week before the draft, he started sliding in a lot of the better internet draft algorithms. This seemed to be based on medical problem rumors. So I thought there was a chance he would slide.

I expect to update this later before the second round of the draft starts. But with where we stand right now, I feel very in the dark about where the Bills go next. I will commit before the second round starts though. A side note - this is the first draft in a while that Joe Shoen did not at least help Beane prepare for. Some of the past "drafting traits" may have moved to NY. Offense and being an older player were both outside the Beane era mold. I am not sure how to interpret the first round selection. I felt strongly the Bills would go offense in the first round. To me, Kincaid was not just the player that will help the Bills the most on offense in 2023, but was also the BPA at the selection. But a string of very good defensive players went in the rest of the round after the Bills took Kincaid which indicates a committment to offense. Scenario 1 - Bills are committed to this draft being about optimizing the offense. The next logical step in this scenario is improving the oline. One thing I took away from the first round selection is that while Dawson Knox is a very good and highly compensated player, the Bills did not worry about hurting his feelings with the pick. I don't think they care anymore about Spencer Brown's, Mitch Morse's or Ryan Bates feelings. Based on this line of thinking there seems to be a 1A and a 1B plan. IA is standing pat, and hoping Matthew Beregon, Joe Tipmann, or John Michael Schmitz falls to that position. I think there is a real possibility one of them could be there. It seems unlikely the top IOL players 0'Cyrus Torrence and Steve Avila will be there at that pick. This brings us to the 1B plan. Maybe the Bills are happy to get 2 quality picks in the draft, and are willing to use further draft capital, or future draft capital to move up for Torrence or Avila. The Bills are a pretty complete team now, and I am not sure we need to be stocking the practice roster. So I think this is a viable option. Our second and third rounder, probably allows you to get one of Torrence and Avila. Scenario 2 - The Bills took Kincaid because he was BPA, and that is the modus operandi for the draft. I don't think they expected Kincaid to fall (although a number of internet simulation programs in the last week leading up to the draft did have Kincaid falling). I think other players fans are high on will also fall unexpectedly to 59. In that case I would expect the Bills to be neutral on offense vs defense and pick the BPA. I think this group will include some of the players in this big group: WRs - Jalin Hyatt, Jonathan Mingo. CB's Julius Brent, DJ Turner and Tryique Stevenson Other Defense, Trenton Simpson, Antonio Johnson, Tuli Tuipulotu, Derrick Hall, and Olinemen Joe Tippman, Matthew Bergeron, and Cody Mauch. At this point it is tough to separate what I would want, from what I think the Bills would do. But if all of those players are available, and the Bills are neutral on BPA, I think it would be one of the cornerbacks. The 2B plan is to trade up to take Joey Porter who seems to be the true BPA going into the second round. If he gets past Pittsburg, a 2&3 would might allow us to get Porter. This would be a home run. Scenario 3 - A shift to defensive need - I think there is a fan consensus the Bills current hole on defense at LB and future hole on the Dline with the expected departure of Ed Oliver next year. In this case, I would expect the Bills to stand pat and take Drew Sanders or Trent Simpson, in that order, if they fall to 59. Otherwise it would likely be whoever they think is the best defensive interior lineman fit for the Bills. Keeanu Benton sticks out as the best of the the interior limeman who has a good chance of being available at that pick. Overall, I think the Bills will be best served for 2023 and beyond by scenario 1.

Not really. Big part of getting it right was being lucky. But sometimes one gets lucky. That will be harder. But I hope to have time between work and the draft to put a post up with that guess. But I am tempted to stay 1 for 1. 😃

and the bunched panties award goes to our very own beta :

I usually am. 😉

Well, I projected Kincaid as the Bills first pick. And Kincaid was the Bills first pick.

Kincaid broke the Bills mold of drafting youngsters. Kincaid is 23.5 years old.