Mikie2times

Meh, it was ok, I feel like I have had better surgeries. In any event, good luck! Hope everything turns out ok!

Compare him to the NFL league leaders in YPC, not that context should matter when having a BBQ. Then consider he was #2 last year, #4 3 years ago, and he compares to zero WR's on our team as far as route depth. As I said, not a #2. But the drop% crowd needs to look how the Bills use him as well. 1. Jaylen Waddle 64.1% 2. Gabe Davis 51.6% 3. AJ Brown 60.7% 4. Corey Davis 50% 5. Marquez Valdes-Scantling 51.9% 6. Darius Slayton 64.8% 7. Terry McLaurin 64.2% 8. George Pickens 61.9% 9. Davante Adams 55.6% 10. Amari Cooper 59.1% 100%

A couple things I'm seeing in this thread and starting to get annoyed. Davis has been #2 in the NFL in yards per catch back to back years. Three years ago he was 4th. YPC has an inverse correlation with catch %. Last year, ranking the top 140 WR's, the correlation is -.62. Not married, but statistically relevant. Past using a formula to determine this how about common sense? Deeper routes = lower receptions per route thrown. This aside, Davis was a steal for us relative to where he fell in the draft. As far as being a legit #2, he has not lived up to that billing. If that is the standard of success for a 4th round pick than we will have a lot of depressed fans in the future. Him meeting, failing to meet, or exceeding expectations is purely up to the people assigning those. He has destroyed any normal expectations for a 4th round pick.

I wish I could give this more than one thumbs up. I think some on here would say what do you mean he doesn't always see the field? I agree with your take 100%. The line often doesn't give him a lot of time to see the field, but ultimately, reading defenses is the biggest area he can work on. People are learning to take away almost everything he does to try and generate offense without fully reading the defense. They aren't letting him roll to the sidelines. They're often slow rushing him. Not giving him the easy rush lane up the middle. Right now, the way to beat Josh is keep him in the pocket and he's going to have to eventually figure that our more. I'm sure he will with how hard he works.

I'm almost wondering which path leads to a higher injury risk because you know he's never going to go into full on protection mode. I think the worse place he can be is in between who he is and who others want him to be. That's where injuries will happen.

Ultimately it's McD's job on the line. A fact I think he is well aware of given what happened with Frazer. Giving Frazier the nod into next year, same result, sure, he might have survived, but it would be barely. Which is somewhat hard to fathom given his level of success. Carolina produced some good pass rushing years when he was there. They ranked in lower percentile in total blitzes, but when they did blitz they had a lot of success. I don't think most of us would take issue with his system so long as it was a little more calibrated to the situation and the team. I also don't think he has much involvement in the offense (just guessing, how do we really know?). I imagine he plays a role in clock management and timing, perhaps general play call strategy, but I never saw him in the offenses play calls on a down by down basis.

Interesting, I see him being a really good rotational piece. He's a guy who can play inside on passing downs and outside on running downs. Jacksonville used him in this fashion. He has enough in the tank for a rotational guy. Leadership and experience. Like it.

You're correct, his output after returning from injury does not suggest a wall though. He seems to really take pride in his craft. He was never a guy that had to use elite speed to win. He seems like a player that can play several years at high level. We won't know until we see what happens.

I think most of us would agree that we would have rather built this thing differently, but given our circumstances, we have no way to build the type of line in FA signings or the draft that pays dividends quick enough to allow this groups of WR's time to be an actual threat to opposing defenses. We should be bolstering the line heavily in the draft this year no doubt. In the interim, Hopkins will create more issues then just about any other option we can pursue given the way the team is built and the needs we have. He will also open up the ability to really focus on the line in the draft.

Hopkins really hasn't shown signs of slowing down. When he returned from his suspension for PED's last year (which he most likely took to help recover from an MCL tear he suffered in 2021) he averaged more yards per game than his career average. He did so with back up's/back up's throwing him the ball. His 2021 year was cut short by actual injury, which was the only such time in his career that happened. Prior, he started 126 our of a potential 128 games. He is a year and half older than Diggs and is basically a lock to get to 13,000 yards receiving which starts to form the argument that he has no right to be excluded from the hall of fame. If anything the time off the last two years likely adds tread on the tires. This is a HOF WR that can give us around peak output for a couple years. While he recognized as being very good, I just don't think many give him the level of respect he deserves as in thinking HOF caliber. His stats say as much, he has just been stuck playing for two horrible organizations that nobody likes or cares about.

Gotcha. I didn't see that!

Right, I don't believe he is doing that. I'm sure he is using a decent system to rate them. But the issue is you can't make them 4.0, 3.9, 3.8, 3.7 as he is doing. They have to have a larger separation amongst each other, then factor that value with a higher weight (as he is already doing). It would look more like Mahomes 4.0, Allen/Burrow 3.5, then eventually it could be linear once you hit replacement level guys. But the gap between the best, the next tier, and then replacement level is rather large. It seems like your point was positional weighting as a whole, I'm talking about how large the deviation within the position. QB is a unique position in that the very best are substantially better. Not just a little better. Then that substantial amount is weighted even more (as he is doing).

I think the way his ranking system is built doesn't properly account for QB's. If you look at the top QB's the value would never be linear. So even with him accounting for additional weight to the position, by using a a linear method it does not account for the discrepancy in talent within the position. As an example, The top 5 QB's are basically the same. Very minor adjustment. When in reality it's more like Mahomes, gap, Allen/Burrow, gap, so on it goes. You could quantify it in this fashion if you wished to do so. Not your fight, just pointing what I consider a flaw in his logic. Impressive effort though. Interesting for sure.

I wonder if he would be the only player in NFL history to win a Super Bowl with the team he caught a Hail Mary against?

Hopkins missed parts of 2021 with Hamstring, but the more severe issue was a torn MCL he suffered late in the season. He played in 10 games. Prior to the start of the 2022 season he was suspended for PED's. The substance he tested positive for was a Selective Androgen Receptor Modulator (SARM). SARM is considered an anabolic steroid, but with much fewer of the common side effects. It would seem likely Hopkins was using it as a way to accelerate his recovery from the MCL. That's my opinion. Anabolic steroids do not serve WR's well, ask David Boston. Jokes aside, they're generally not viewed as something that provides better flexibility which is a huge part of being a WR. That is why I feel like this was in attempt to recover from his injury. After he returned in 2022, he started 9 games and averaged just a hair shy of 80 yards per game. Slightly above his career averages. He accomplished this while having almost no QB credibility. Prior to 2021, Hopkins had a chance to start in 128 games, he started 126. His 77.9 yards per game career average is 7th all time. He is one of 4 WR's to maintain an average that high over 8 or more seasons. The other 3? Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, and Antonio Brown. Torry Holt is just behind his average and under Holt is Tyreek Hill. In sum, this isn't just a normal talent or a normal potential signing. Objectively, Hopkins is still one of the best players in the NFL and by my account we have very little reason to think he can't give us a healthy couple of years. He is not a #2 to Stephon, he has better numbers than Diggs in nearly every area imaginable. This is Buffalo having two elite #1's. He's also had some time off the last couple years for healing his body as a whole. He should be fresh and ready. GET IT DONE BBB! *edit => Probably not being fair to Diggs, the numbers are basically identical in every major category on a per game basis. Hopkins is a year and a half older.

F

We will never not contend with 17, he can do too much on his own.

100% agree

It's a massive swing for either team. I don't think they want us near him either. You can't cover Diggs and a healthy Hopkins at the same time. Not possible.

Prior to the last two seasons which he missed significant time, I would say Hopkins over Diggs. He just caught anything near him. All culminating in the Hail Murray. I think Diggs will be fine. No targets, no wins = very bad. That’s what you can’t do to Diggs. But I think he is fine playing next to another #1. I would say they would instantly be competing for the top duo in football. Even competing against those two from Miami. Then you have to think Hopkins wants to win given who has played with. Not sure if we could swing this. I’m sure we could if we want it bad enough. I actually think it fits rather well.

I don't disagree that we were somewhat off, but as a whole, I found it laughable how easily this forum dismissed the Bengals prior and it's getting to be downright delusional how some people are dismissing them now. If the Bills and the Bengals are applying for a job and can only use measurable accomplishments, like record against each other, record against the best team in our conference, playoff record, and on it goes. Buffalo is never getting hired. Perhaps the only piece of data that suggests this is even worth discussing is more history (Allen is older and never was lost for a full year) and advanced statistics like DVOA (which Buffalo has dominated and subsequently shown to not meet). Just because we aren't at the same level yet does not mean we can't get there. It does not mean next season isn't our year. It just stating what seem to be obvious facts that some people won't accept for whatever reason.

Let me alter your narrative a bit. We had no business ever being ranked ahead of the Bengals. Cincinnati was off a Super Bowl appearance, returned everybody, then proceeded to back it up with elite level QB play all of 2022. They had beat KC multiple times, in the playoffs, and up until the AFC championship game had never lost to KC. Somehow these facts escaped the media hype train that was running out of control post Josh's epic performance in 13 seconds. We are among the elite teams in football, but we are not better than KC or the Bengals at this time nor do we have any objective basis to make such a claim. We have also been taken to the woodshed by at least one team, every year. It was the Colts the year prior, the Titans the year prior to that. That's not to say being crushed in one game determines if we are or aren't, but beating either KC or the Bengals in the playoffs most certainly does. We have not done so, they have beat each other, including being undefeated against us in the playoffs, they're better.

Burrow has more passing TD's, more AFC championship wins, AFC championship games played, more SB's played, higher completion %, yards passing per game, and better playoff record in his first 3 years. Sure Josh and his run game outweigh a lot of this that, but where is the current trajectory? Burrow is only getting healthier and is coming off his 3rd year. Josh's 4th and 5th year were actually worse than his 3rd year. Then obviously Burrow carved us up pretty good in the only game they played against each other. My broader point is not to say Josh isn't elite, but rather, very little separates Burrow, Allen, and Mahomes, clearly Mahomes has to get the nod, but I see nothing that can completely separate Josh and Burrow. They're the same at this time with Josh getting that additional bump against Burrows results based on elite running skills.

I love motor, but I don't actually think the YPC is the tell all here. In 2020 he was he was nearly identical to Zack Moss, only to nearly beat him by a full yard in 2021, only to get nearly doubled by James Cook in 2022. Now I would expect Motor to have beat Moss by a considerable margin. Moss was always the short yardage guy. That just wasn't ALWAYS the case. He did outperform in YPC, but it was hit in miss given the context of when they ran the ball. Then Cook just destroyed everybody last year. Motor is very difficult in 10 yards. He is a good back. That said, I think the Motor (and the Bills) high YPC is more a result of Allen, the passing game, and our historical refusal to run the ball. If we became more run oriented as a whole I would not expect to see the YPC in this area. You see this exact statistical pattern play out consistently against pass heavy teams. It's normal for the YPC to be high. Texas Tech for example in college and the Chiefs have likely been the NFL's best example.