MasterStrategist

Miller is a wild card, he either gets close to prior form OR he is washed up. I think he'll rebound, but he's not going to be what he was in 2022 pre injury. He's a rotational piece to me. Von is also gone after this year, and AJE isn't a DE2 (he could be, but isn't yet). Groot isn't locked up longterm either. I say DE is something that could impact the team the most. DT, I'm fine with Jones and Ed. Find a viable backup in FA (either at 1 tech or 3 tech), draft the other later rounds.

Agree with both sides of discussion, Samuel is versatile piece. But another reason we don't "need" a RD1 WR. With Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid and Knox, that's already a solid group. A WR in RD2, of the deepest draft at WR in history, is all we need.

Exactly. DE and WR are both equal needs but I think DE could have biggest impact on success of team. We don't have a top tier DL player. We have 1 tier two player (Ed), a tier 3 guy (Groot), tier 3-4 in AJE and Von. We need another DL player in the tier 2 category, or ideally potential to be an all-pro. We won't have success late in playoffs with what we have now, just not good enough. We arent in position to get an elite player at DL on draft, but both Robinsons have different skill sets, and bring potential to be tier 2 guys relatively quickly.

Exactly baseline WR2/complimentary piece to the WR room. I mentioned earlier today in the Armstead thread, that Beane is likely targeting Samuel/MVS, then going DL in RD1. Wr in RD2 (trade up to high 40s/#50, to get ahead of Steelers). Will see if draft plays out like that. But hoping we can get our starting FS before draft, and a backup DT.

Agreed. Those day 3 picks will be valuable for moving up in Rd 2 though. Say to jump ahead of Steelers, move from Pick 60 to Pick 50. Both Steelers and Bills have very similar positional needs: WR, Safety, Center

Exactly. We get better value investing those FA $s/remaining cap on a WR (such as Samuel/MVS) and a starting caliber FS. Solid logic why a versatile DL would help. I mentioned a couple RD1 DL prospects above, who could help immediately. Team likes bumping Groot inside on passing downs as well, so that's an existing option. Just think a low-tier WR2 and starting FS are wiser investments, with remaining cap $s. Go get that DL prospect early, and WR in RD2 (in one of the deepest classes ever)

Sorry, should have said I don't think Beane will get into a bidding war. I think he has a value on Erik and doesn't "go after him too aggressively", IMO/no source. Personally, I'd rather invest an early pick on DL...knowing Von is likely gone after this year, and AJE is only on a 2-yr deal/isn't a DE2. WR is so deep we can find a starter in RD2

I'm not sure we go after Armstead, IMO Texans will land him. Because of $ and age/injury, I think Beane stays put. As a possibility, I'm wondering if Beane strategy is to go DL round 1 (which will initially trigger some anger by fans) and trade up in Round 2 for a WR. DL: Chop Robinson, Darius Robinson (who profiles similar to Armstead, inside/out versatilty) are two guys to watch WR: such a deep draft, Beane might not see much difference between WR5-6 (which is likely our Rd1 option, if we stay put) & WR8-12 (if we move up in Rd 2) I don't see us using all eleven picks, so Rd 2 is ripe for moving up. Or we stay put and see WR12ish at our pick. Sign a guy like Samuel or MVS, who could be a WR2b (complimentary weapon), add a Rd2 Wr. Diggs/Kincaid/FA/Rd 2 Wr/Shakir/Knox....would be a nice collective group. DL: Oliver, Jones, Groot, Von, AJE, 1 more FA DT, Rd1 DE, Late round DT

The Rapp signing is my only issue thus far, as I was hoping for a legit starter via FA. Perhaps they still have a plan there. Lewis is super cheap, provides best ROI for his familiarity with system and position versatility/ST play. Re: Morrow, all I can think is there could be concern with: 1. Injuries occurring again AND/OR 2. Dorian might not pick things up yet in Year 2. It's a fact that the injury bug hit us hard LY, especially at LB. But after seeing what happened against KC, I don't think they wanted a rookie in the LB4 spot (especially a late pick) and Dorian hasn't proved anything, except his athleticism. McDs Def philosophy revolves around strong LB play. Having a dependable LB3 is a good investment, given recent injury luck and what we have on roster.

Re: draft/round 1 and 2 If right guys are there, I think our most impactful strategy should be: RD1 WR and RD2 OC/OG. With Daquan back, I think we can find a 1 tech DT in Rd 4-6. Same for DE4 slot. I think Beane will grab 1 more DT and DE in FA, sets up depth-wise heading into draft.

Yeah and he was fighting thru injury it looked like

Diggs is WR1. Maybe not a top 5 WR anymore, but he's still a top 15-20 guy. By definition, that's WR1

I think both those guys are exactly the type of WR we look for in FA. Then two WRs in draft. Along with a late round RB. I think we find another vet in FA for RB2. Brady wants to run a more balanced offense, I think it's important to find a RB2 in FA

Not sure why ppl want to sign a WR2. Round 1 pick is likely pegged for that. We likely need a WR4, $5-6m type. Then draft a 2nd WR in middle rounds. With Diggs, Kincaid, Shakir, Knox, Cook. We need 1 very good option to add, and a couple supporting types.

Yes. I could see us going for a vet, on a y 1yr deal. Ogbah has been tossed around. Shaq Lawson is the absolute fall back plan. But we might see what happens in draft and pick from the remaining DEs in May/June.

Cross off DE3 need. Waiting for contract, guessing 2 years for $16m, up to $20m.

I like the Cam re-signing (prob in minority). He brings versatility, 1 player who can play slot/safety/above avg ST. Not a fan of the Rapp re-signing. He looked like a backup LY, just don't like putting decent cap $s into backups this early in FA. He's the type of guy we could replace with a June signing or Day 3 pick. Rest of the guys released/not re-signed, Beane made tough but good decisions IMO. Be good to get our DE3 in FA, and our starting 1-tech DT. A starting safety would be ideal, not sure if Rapp is their answer but he shouldn't be. And 1 WR, in the Noah Brown price range. Then hit WR and OL early, fill out depth at DL and S later in draft

Happy has posted many injury "inside" info, during the season...ie: Groot foot, Knox wrist, McGovern knee, etc He's also posted signings/interest in future players, ie: Murray, Joseph, Ford, etc LY

This has been Beanes biggest issue....he finds a bunch of B/B+ guys to accompany Josh and Stefon, latter is now a B-type guy. It's a solid/very good roster, but not enough star power. Von was supposed to be the elite guy, along with Tre coming back from injury, but things went sideways. We need to be "elite" on one side of the ball at least. Either stack up the defense, or more suitable for this draft, stack the WR room and OL. McDermott is a very good defensive mind and we can win a SB with an elite offense and tier 2 defense. Just need another playmaker, upgrade on Morse, and hopefully we see Kincaid/Shakir continue improving. Rd 1 WR and Rd 2 G/C, just might put us at elite offense...if they hit on the picks and a WR4 in FA.

Spotrac tells a different story, than you're referencing above. Salary: all agree that was reduced significantly Cap in 2024: all agree this reduced by approx $8m 2024 Roster bonus: Spotrac shows this as "non guaranteed" (but ability to convert to signing bonus). This is where the difference lies with what you stated above. 2024 Guaranteed $: not yet clear, but if the roster bonus isn't guaranteed, then we're talking somewhere close to 8.5m as gtd $. And your original $10m estimate was low, it was closer to $17m for 2024 Incentives: yes these could put Von in better $ situation, but I personally like the "pay for performance" incentives (which don't count against cap) Future cap years: I'm not seeing how our future cap is implicated at all. Unless his roster bonus was indeed "guaranteed"/amortized across remaining years of deal (which would add approx $2m to each future year)

This $$$ has to be earmarked for DL reinforcements. Von did Beane a solid, and team. That $8m can go a long way to get a couple solid players, or a Floyd type on 1 year deal

Agents typically pump out the high end ("up to")...I'd imagine it will be backup/3rd safety type money (dime)

Just depends on perspective, Thurman/Bruce/Reed are Bills legends. White/Po/Morse were all very good players, but none of these guys ever contributed near the success. I just don't too attached to players, unless stars.

We've saved close to $30M (less Edwards and Haack agreements, likely in the 3m-4m range). I think they've actually missed a recent cut. Numbers should be close $15m-16m. Tre savings will kick in after June 1st

Those were Hall of Famers, core to our success. White, Poyer, Harty, Morse, and yesterday's moves...don't compare at all. It's necessary moves, the writing was on the wall for all these guys. Making too much/negative ROI right now.