CincyBillsFan
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Posts posted by CincyBillsFan
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Just now, Mikie2times said:
You think Allen is 20+ points better than Mahomes on the same team?
I don't understand your question. I'm not saying Allen on KC would have beat TB that year I'm saying that the way Allen plays the game he would have been in a better position to deal with the pass rush and having a beat up O line then Mahomes can.
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9 minutes ago, boyst said:
This is the reason Beane could be on the hot seat next off-season. McDermott didn't win with the teams he was given and now we got backed into a corner trying to run it back with scrapyard components.
If we find ourselves outside looking in on the playoffs next year the whole tide turns, not just on McDermott.
We absolutely must draft deep on defense and address the WR with a bona fide #2.
Keep in mind though that the AFC East is in disarray. IMO the Bills go into next season in better shape versus the rest of the division then we did this season. And as much as I criticize McD he is a solid coach who like Marvin Lewis in Cincinnati will get the Bills to the playoffs next season and win the division. Then we will exit the playoffs in round 2.
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Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:
There was not one instance this year where Allen’s oline was as bad as Mahomes was in that SB.
Maybe not this year but over the last 5 years there have been a lot of times the Bills O line was that bad and maybe even worse. Allen's play hides a lot of O line defects.
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1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:
Mahomes was amazing in that TB Super Bowl considering how bad their o line play was.
He was? Mahomes stats for the Super Bowl against TB: 26 of 49 passes for 270 yards, 0 TD's & 2 INT's with a rating of 52. Also 5 carries for 33 yards, 0 TD's.
Sure, the Chiefs O line was a wreck and Mahomes was running for his life but he still had a lot of weapons available. When Allen puts up numbers like this you people claim he sucked and if we point out a porous O line played a role you accuse us of making excuses for Allen.
Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:The problem with is with how sensitive some are, if you say Mahomes would have won SBs here, you will get labeled as an Allen hater, when this has zero to do with Allen.
The nfl league is mahomes and everybody else. IMO (and most non bills fans), Mahomes is one of the great qbs ever. He might be only qb who could have carried that KC offense with a Gabe Davis type rookie wr (Rice), literal garbage WRs, and declining Kelce to the title game. Allen is great as well. But it’s Mahomes and everyone else.
and I think the Ravens will win. But the fact this pretty garbage KC team is even close shows his greatest. No other qb beats us on Sunday.
Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL. Allen is #2 IMO. But I also believe that Mahomes would not have won or even gotten to a Super Bowl on the Bills teams of the last 6 years.
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17 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:
Mahomes won a SB and MVP after trading Tyreek Hill.
he is in the afc championship game with a bottom 5 wide receiver core.
mahomes would win wherever he is.
No one is disputing that Mahomes wouldn't win what is up for discussion is whether or not Mahomes would be going to AFCC games every year and winning a couple of Super Bowls in Buffalo. After all Allen wins a lot of games and has led the Bills to 5 straight playoff appearances and 4 straight division titles. I have no doubt that Mahomes would have equaled that production under McD had he been here.
As an aside I shudder at the thought of the offense Reid would fashion with Allen.
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5 hours ago, Billever76 said:
Allen would have 6 straight afccg appearances and 2 superbowl rings if they switched teams on their draft nights
Maybe 3 super bowl rings as he would have been better able to handle Tampa Bays pass rush in that game.
14 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:So if Allen is on that level what is holding Buffalo back? I don't believe we can conclude it's the roster. Patriots and Chiefs didn't win all those Super Bowls because the roster. For my dollar Reid and Belichick help. Sean hurts. What happens when you partner a hall of fame QB with a crappy head coach? Divisional losses.
McD is what's holding them back. After that it's the decision to focus on defense at the expense of the offense.
5 hours ago, FireChans said:Allen was never making the AFCCG as a rookie in 2018.
Do you not remember how different these dudes’ 2018’s were lol. Josh had like 10 passing TD’s, Mahomes had 50.
And Mahomes wasn't throwing 50 TD's in Buffalo in 2018.
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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:
The offense, on the other hand, is pretty well set. I'd love to have a better running back to pair with Cook. People moan about the receivers, but I think the moaning is way out of line with reality. The Bills had the eighth most passing yards in the league, only 30 yards a game less than the top teams. Kincaid now has his rookie season under his belt, and he can be expected to be better next season. Diggs was 13th in yards and 7th in receptions in the league. Shakir is coming on. The offensive line was solid. Bills will need a center, and upgrades anywhere are always nice. However, compared to the defense, the offense is relatively set - it was one of the best offenses in the league.
The numbers support your argument but I think they're impacted by the cheat code called Josh Allen. He has proven over the last 4 seasons that he can be wildly productive with average to below average offensive talent around him. This is what puts the Bills in the top 10 statistical categories every year and gives us a false sense of comfort. But what the Bills are missing is the possibility of how good the offense could be if you surrounded Allen with above average talent. Focusing on the offense sets up the possibility that we might see just how HIGH the ceiling of a Josh Allen offense can be.
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I disagree 100% with this take. Let's start with this from the article: "The Bills proceeded to draft, trade for and sign players to surround Allen in the hopes of having a year-in-and-year-out dynamic offense. It has mostly worked." How can anyone who covers the Bills and claims to know football say this? A more accurate statement would be that after tearing the Bills completely down in 2018 they signed serviceable guys to allow a functioning offense. The only thing that has worked in the Bills plan here is that Allen has been a far better & dynamic QB in his career then anyone thought he would be in 2018.
The ONLY high end Offensive players the Bills have signed in free agency from 2019 - 2023 were Morse & Diggs. And the ONLY 1st round picks spent on Offensive players between 2019 - 2023 was the one to get Diggs and drafting Kincaid.
O'Halloran calls out the failures of the defense over the last 3 seasons and then makes a weird argument that the Bills haven't emphasized defense over that period of time when they have used multiple 1st & 2nd round draft picks to address the D as well as making the biggest FA acquisition over the last 3 years with Von Miller.
The only thing I like is O'Halloran's call for high volume on D selections. Yea, lets spend a lot of 4th - 7th round picks, sign lot of rookie FA's and sign a lot of low cost FA JAGS.
But the #1 priority going into the off season must be to get, either through the draft or FA, a top flight WR.
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3 hours ago, FireChans said:
He’s actually left the field with more than 3 leads. You just remember the ones we lost. And in those losses, he contributed greatly to them.
Before or after we had those late game leads?
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57 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:
Ty Dunne knows where his bread is buttered: appealing to frustrated fans by telling them what they want to hear, that someone must pay for not getting them the candy they were promised.
I disagree. Dunne is explaining to fans what they already have seen. Look I don't trust any Journalist on almost any topic. But whatever ax Dunne has to grind with McD his observations line up with what I've seen over the last few years and the comments that McD has made both in season and in the off season. All Dunne is doing for me is to provide additional info and a broader perspective.
6 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:@Scott7975I just tried to post a freeze frame of that play, showing just as Josh is releasing the ball, but by the time I shrunk the pic to allow it, it was garbage. LOL
In any case, just as JA is releasing the ball, Shakir is really wide open, and would have got the pass 20 yards past the LOS, and the nearest guy is 8 yards away......while Diggs is basically covered. The safety is actually running behind Diggs when the ball is released.
Again, 62 yards in the air, on a cold & windy NIGHT. As I stated earlier, I'm really curious to know if Diggs even saw the ball early enough to make the catch.
Just like how Knox was wide open for a 20 yard gain in 2021 and Allen ignored him to throw a 75 TD pass to Davis. #1 NFL WR's have to make that catch at least 19 times out of 20 throws.
As to whether or not Diggs lost the ball or never saw it until it was on his hands we'll never know because he left before answering any questions.
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55 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Josh’s turnovers led to key losses in the regular season, which cost us the chance to rest players in week 18 or potentially get a bye, which led to increased player injuries and an eventual playoff exit. Josh did not have any turnovers this postseason, but while AJ Klein was trying to cover Travis Kelce, all I could think about is the offense turning it over twice in 30 seconds against the Broncos with 1 min left in the half and Josh throwing 3 picks to Jordan Whitehead.
And here I thought the bigger problem was that Allen had left the Bills D with three leads inside of 2 minutes left in the game that they couldn't protect.
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11 minutes ago, boyst said:
Wins > INT's
But aren't people like you always telling us that Allen's TO' prevent wins? So which is it?
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And another franchise chooses an offensive guy over a defensive guy as head coach. You should see my shocked face.
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8 hours ago, Governor said:
Tough to say. He won’t be here much longer. I give him 1 more season until his people/circle starts dropping stealth bombs on this regime’s head. A man can only take so much. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of it leaks out next season. He will do whatever he has to do to get out. He isn’t a kid anymore and wants to build a legacy. He can’t do that with McD. I just hope we get a major haul for him.
As a 49er I see him easily winning 2 rings. They will likely want to try a different model (franchise QB) after they blow it this season and next.
This is my fear to. If the Bills don't prioritize the offense, particularly the WR room, then Allen will soldier on but he will start to look elsewhere. My expectation, hope really, is that Bean & Pegula can't be so stupid as to not see this and they will adjust the priorities. In this case I'm confident that Allen will spend his career in Buffalo ad bring home a couple of Lombardi trophy's.
BTW, I have no expectation that McD will see it. I believe Dunne when he says the man is clueless of how elite QB's see the game. If McD exerts substantial influence in the draft & FA and turns the Bills back towards the D then I would expect Allen to be gone no later (and probably sooner) then his 32nd birthday.
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4 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:
Just throwing this out there: If you watch Kurt Warners All-22 review (Part 2)...there's a separate thread for it...he basically says that this long bomb to Diggs was a dumb move by JA, with a very low chance of success, because he had another receiver Wide Open over the deep middle of the field.
Fair point but that play and situation in the game reminded me of Allen's 75 yard TD strike to Gabe Davis in the 2021 KC playoff game. Remember the Chiefs had just gone up 23 - 14 in the 3rd quarter and it looked like the Bills were on the precipice of getting blown out. So 1st down after the KO Allen did a play action drop back and ignored a wide open Knox across the middle for a 20 yard gain in order to push the ball 55 yards down the field for the TD. That play changed the game into a shootout that the Bills should have won but for McD's ineptitude at the end.
On Sunday Allen hit Diggs in the hands at the 25 yard line. At worst Diggs is tripped up there but it looks to me like he would have scored putting the Bills in the lead half way through the 4th quarter. That kind of lightening strike immediately after the Chiefs had fumbled the ball through the end zone may have changed the entire rhythm and momentum of the game.
I want Allen making that throw EVERY SINGLE TIME.
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4 minutes ago, prissythecat said:
also, arguing that Allen’s rating would have broken 100 if two low percentage bombs weren’t dropped is silly . There’s a reason long bombs are only thrown a few times a gameSo the Bills spend the entire game running the ball and throwing short passes in order to set up a couple of deep throws. That is football 101. Under that situation those are not "low percentage bombs". Brady calls a deep shot off play action (again football 101) and Allen throws perfect balls to 2 WR's that hit them in the hands. Both passes are dropped which IMO was the only real thing the offense did wrong the whole game.
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Just now, prissythecat said:
QBR is a bogus ESPn metric . It’s good if you want to say that Tim Tebow was a good QB.As you noted there is no perfect QB rating system. But QBR better captured Allen's play on Sunday then the conventional QB rating. To suggest otherwise is wrong and fly's in the face of what we all saw in that game.
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7 minutes ago, prissythecat said:
Josh had an 86.1 passer rating in the Chiefs game. Against the Bengals in playoffs last year it was 68. Those are both below average
Against the Chiefs Allen took what was available. That will lead to a lower QB rating because YPC is reduced. The two drops on over 100 yards of potential passing yards prevented Allen from having a rating in the 100's.
And as usual you neglect to mention Allen's 72 yards and 2 TD's rushing which was critical to the offenses success.
BTW, Allen's QBR, which is a much better rating of how Allen plays then the regular rating, was 65.4 against the Chiefs Sunday. This is quite good and borderline great.
2 minutes ago, prissythecat said:Passer rating is a decent objective rating of how well a QB is throwing the ball . It isn't a perfect metric. But it helps in determining if statements on a QBs performance are off base like yours. Perfect play from Josh in all three playoffs losses? Lol
But the way you present it is misleading. Do you ave a grudge against Allen?
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3 hours ago, Back2Buff said:
No, I'm talking about the D that had to get 4 turnovers and a TD to beat NE at home. Or the team that had to stop the Giants at home in primetime because the offense put up 14 points. Or the D that had to defend Tampa on a hail mary because the offense 7 points in the entire second half.
The games we lost (other than Philly) was because the offense was terrible even though the D held up.
Again we lost 3 games when the O gave the D the lead with less then 2 minutes left on the clock.
Sure the D won a couple of games as did the O. But given the uneven allocation of resources over the last 5 years the D should be winning a lot more games then the offense. And in the playoff losses the O has played in all those games except one. In contrast the defense has been awful in every playoff loss.
4 minutes ago, Brand J said:From The Atheltic:
Dear Beane, we need a young, big, fast and physical WR1 in the mold of DK Metcalf. Thank you.
And we've needed one for the last 3 years. Their refusal to get this hugely valuable piece (D Hopp anyone?) for Allen and the Offense has been a case of football malpractice.
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1 hour ago, RkFast said:
Im DYING to know what "leash" Josh Allen is on due to the head coach. Was it becuase in the opener he was caught on camera telling him to "BE SMART?" Wow...what a crushing comment. I mean, if I ever heard my boss telling me to be careful with my work, I would have to quit on the spot.
Also, Dunne's leaning on "drought fear" to make a point is ridiculous becuase if The Dought tought us ANYTHING, its that coaches are not interchangable and even the highly regarded ones who come in, which Williams, Mularkey and Rex all were, can just as easily fail. For every Shanahan there are THREE Matt Patricias.
"Yeah but those coaches dont have Josh Allen."
But that statement doesnt wash either. Becuase the whole idea claimed that McD is "wasting" Josh Allen PROVES that an HC can do that.
There are two elements of unleashing Allen:
1) Short term we're talking about the attempt to reign Allen in and have him run less and take less risks throwing the football. We saw this put into effect during the first 10 games of 2023 and Allen was miserable, the offense uneven and an OC was fired as a result. Dunne only points out the obvious: McD was the author of Allen's changed play. Dunne isn't making anything up here he's simply referring to the public statements and articles by McD in the off season & pre season.
2) Long term McD & Bean in their roster construction have sought to exploit Allen's unique talent not optimize it. This is a huge difference and the Bills have paid the price every year for this wrongheaded thinking. McD/Bean hoped that Allen was special enough to carry the O while they focused on the D. Look at the Bills neglect of the WR room, the most important position group when you have an elite QB to see that Dunne speaks the truth here.
Every post season Marvin Lewis said the right things about how next season would be different. But they never were. So you can hope the Bills make changes NOW like I do or you can keep expecting things to get better doing basically the same wrong things for another couple of years.
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1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:
This piece is friggin’ stupid. And I have my issues with McDermott. Dunne is doing the Substack-adjacent version of what Nick Wright does — accentuating all the negatives to rile up a fanbase in order to build his brand. The Bills lost to a better (because healthier) team in KC that also has a better kicker and would have lost to a very healthy Ravens team next week.
I can only speak for myself and while Dunne may have a personal grudge with McD what he says in that article matches many of my own observations. I agree that had we beat KC we would likely have lost to the Ravens next week. But the point Dunne is making is not unreasonable. The Bills have hit a wall at the Divisional Playoff round. And Dunne's argument that they hit this wall in large part because of McD & Beans refusal to focus the necessary resources and mindset against surrounding their uniquely gifted QB with the best talent available rings true to me.
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1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:
Joe Marino's breakdown of the all 22 concluded the Bills threw short all day because that is what was there, KC's defense took stuff down the field away. Btw, they are an incredible defense, that seems to get lost in the mix as people just talk Josh and Mahomes and Bills injuries.
Twice the Bills struck deep and Allen hit the WR in the hands. BOTH were incomplete. In a game where you must be patient Allen exhibited unnatural patience. The WR must make the catch on those two throws. They would have been game changing.
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1 minute ago, Hawaii50 said:
One potential key difference is McDermott has Josh Allen while Lewis had Andy Dalton/Carson Palmer.
And that's why McD is 5 - 6 in the layoffs whereas Lewis was 0 - 7. But can you honestly say that McD will get us past the Divisional round? He did it ONE time in 5 playoff games. IMO in the playoffs Allen covers up a lot of the weaknesses of McD and how Bean has structured this team.
If McD has hit his wall then the Bills must move on from him. Allen is to good of a QB to be satisfied with a divisional playoff appearance. Marv Levy's wall was the Super Bowl and that was acceptable. But if a coaches wall is anything less then a SB appearance when you have a QB as good as Allen then that is not acceptable.
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I hope he follows the Peyton Manning trajectory and lands a couple of Lombardi trophy's for Buffalo. But until I see a real change in direction for the Bills in FA & the draft starting this year I fear Allen's career will follow the trajectory of Dan Fouts & Phillip Rovers only with more yards and TD's. And that would be sad and a damning indictment of the Bills management.
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Josh Allen the turnover machine
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
What? I hope Allen gets away from football completely for 2 months, decompresses and plays so much golf folks will think he's on the PGA tour. The notion that he doesn't work out in the off season and plays to much golf is rubbish. It is not supported by anything we see on the field from Allen. It's actually slanderous IMO. The out of shape, golf obsessed Allen played in all 19 games this season and amassed the following stats:
Passing: 4695 yards; 33 TD's & 18 INT's
Rushing: 670 yards; 18 TD's & 3 lost fumbles
Total: 5365 yards; 51 TD's & 21 TO;s
Team stats:12 - 7 record. Division title and playoff berth.
People who push this ridiculous narrative should be ashamed of themselves for exhibiting such a complete lack of football knowledge.