CincyBillsFan

And 3 of those drops happened in the 3rd quarter on drives that the Bills either went 3 & out or didn't score on. On the Cowherd show today they had Greg Cosell on for 15 minutes. He talked about a lot of what happened over the weekend especially with respect to QBing. His comments about Allen and the Bills were along the Ines of: "The Bills have no running game and they don't try to establish one. They are one dimensional in the worst way. They are terrible at pass blocking. Their game plan requires Allen to be special on EVERY play in EVERY game." Cowherd agreed that this was crazy and not sustainable.

I don't accept the accuracy or relevance of this measure. You're right about one thing - the sample size is ridiculously small here as Allen only had 6 INT's through the first 9 games (the period you said was covered by the article). Only SIX.

I think the run D also misses Zimmer. Interesting that they gave Allen a B grade. Its what I would have given him but it's also a grade that would have been met with derision in certain quarters on 2BD.

According to the article Allen is one of the worst in the NFL at this. Yet by your description: * The Miami game INT did not lead to any points. Sure it put them in scoring position but does outcome play a role here? And how bad is a pick 6 viewed in this model? They lead directly to 7 points and I've seen a lot of those this season but none from Allen. * The Houston INT also did not lead to points * The TN INT had the worst outcome with the Titans scoring a TD off it. BTW, this was the only Allen INT through the first 9 games that led directly to a TD. * The INT's against Jacksonville were the next worst as they likley took 3 points off the board and gave the Jaguars 3 points. * The INT against the Jets was not relevant as the score was 38 -3 at the time. Allen clearly got greedy trying to feed Diggs. You know what this looks like to me? Normal QB play in the NFL with all it's ups and downs. And if the above put Allen near the bottom of the pack with this stat then it's a meaningless stat because Allen's "incidents" don't look like much considering they cover NINE games. Given the enormous amount of uncontrolled variation on every single NFL play the attempt to mathematically quantify performance is doomed. It's a foolish exercise and IMO results in deeply misleading takes on what happened in a game.

I don't know about you but ESPN's methodology leaves much to be desired on their QB rating system so why should I trust their pass block rating system? And yes when it comes down to a highly subjective metric like "untimely INT's" I trust what I saw in each game more then what these stat nerds put out. Because when Allen throws an untimely INT I get royally pissed off so you can bet I'm watching very closely for this type of thing. As for the pass blocking, again I see Allen avoiding the rush and extending plays in ways most QB's do not. So I'm not sure I can trust their metrics. And for the record I spent 35 years doing R&D in Corporate America and I know my way around statistics. And IMO what these guys do in trying to force fit football to analytics is a poor use of statistics. It's one thing to use analytics to tell a coach when to go for 2 or when to go for it on 4th down it's quite another to use it to assess O-line and QB performance. When variability is enormous and as uncontrolled as it is on every play in a football game statistical analysis can be difficult and the results misleading. But hey maybe my eyes are deceiving me and the O-line is playing better this year then last year. But I don't think so.

First off what the hell are "untimely interceptions"? Allen hasn't thrown a red zone INT this season and I consider those to be "untimey". How about throwing a pick six? Again, he hasn't thrown one of those and they are pretty "untimey" to. He didn't throw an INT against Pittsburgh and his one INT against TN was a ball that bounced up in the air. The only game where Allen threw "untimely" INT's that impacted the game outcome was Jacksonville. And do they talk about how the O-line is playing this year versus last year? Did they talk about whether all those penalties called on the Bill's Offense were "untimey" or not? IMO the loss at Jacksonville can be better explained by the O-lines terrible play and numerous untimely penalties. And you can't get more "untimely" then those back to back penalties on the O-line that screwed up our first drive on Sunday. I just don't buy these statistical analytics assessments. It seems to me they are performed by statistics amateurs completely outside of any context.

To be clear it was 24 - 7 and the Bills had only had two offensive possessions. To me this is the remarkable stat that most of the Bills beat writers are not talking about. After the Colts went p 7 - 0 the Bills had a nice drive going and should have had a 1st & 10 at the Colts 25. Instead, back to back O-line penalties pushed the Bills out of FG range and contributed to Allen forcing a pass that was INT. But even after the INT, the Colts had the ball at their own 40 - the same place they would have had it had Buffalo missed a 50 yard FG try. After another time consuming Indy TD drive that put the Bills behind 14 - 0 Buffalo had a nice TD drive to cut the Colts lead in half. But instead of being fired up and getting a 3 and out the Bills D yielded a nearly 9 minute FG drive that put the Colts up 17 -7. Then we had the McKenzie fumble and the Bills trailed 24 - 7 having only had two possessions on offense.

The Colts were going to try to pound us on the ground no matter what happened. And if what you say is true then how did we lose to TN? This was a game our offense went up and down the field and scored 31 points. Yet the defense could not protect multiple Buffalo leads in that game. BTW, if our D is built for defending the pass as teams try to catch up why did we not take the ball to start the game Sunday? It seems to me that if we got up 7 - 0 and then stopped the Cots and stretched the lead to 10 or even 14 - 0 then we might have forced Wentz into an error as the Colts tried to catch up.

There is nothing about Allen's performance to date that makes me think the contract wasn't deserved. In fact, it seems the Bills are more reliant on Allen then ever before. If we had done what the Cowboys did with Prescott, which I assume is what you're saying, then in the long run we would pay a lot more for Allen and his cap hit would be much more serious. A couple of years from now Allen's contract, like Mahomes, will look like a great deal. And by signing Allen now we avoid all the drama that the Ravens may be setting themselves up for.

I know and I just don't get it. I'm going to be a broken record here but the Bills had only two freaking possessions between the opening KO and the two minute warning. TWO! And they scored a TD on one of them and had a nice drive going until back to back penalties killed it. When the Bills got the ball for the only the 3rd time in the first half they were already down 24 - 7. This should be the universal talking point of the coaches and those that get paid to cover the Bills. I don't know why it isn't?

Did you watch the game? I have no idea what you mean by "Allen only scored 7 points making it easy for the Colts to keep running the ball". Do you think the Colts were going to abandon the run if the game was closer? The Bills only had the ball TWICE from the opening kickoff to about the two minute warning. On their first possession, after the Colts scored a TD, the Bills had a nice drive going until back to back penalties on the O-line set them back 15 yards. Allen in an attempt to covert a 3rd & 18 threw a risky ball that was picked giving the Colts possession at their own 40. After the Colts scored to go up 14 - 0 Allen led the Bills on a nice TD drive to cut the lead to 14 - 7. The Colts then went on a nearly 9 minute drive that resulted in a FG and a 17 - 7 lead. McKenzie fumbled the ensuing KO and the Colts scored in one play to go up 24 - 7. Allen then led the Bills to a long FG attempt that hit the upright. You want to now what really turned this game into a blowout? After the Bills cut the Colts lead to 14 - 7 the defense allowed a nearly NINE MINUTE drive to a FG. And then on the KO McKenzie had one of the worst fumbles I've ever seen in the NFL. One play later the Colts scored the TD to go up 24 -7. How the hell did Allen's play up to that point impact the game. Even his INT on the first drive only gave the Colts the ball at their 40. No. But the ignorance of Steven A is off the carts. Sue I get he's paid to stir the pot on a national scene but what kind of Bills fan actually believes what he said. Again and I'll keep screaming it from the top of a mountain - THE BILLS ONLY HAD THE BALL TWICE FROM THE OPENING KO TO THE TWO MINUTE WARNING. TWICE! And both those possessions resulted in drives into Colt territory one giving the Bills a TD. THAT was the reason we lost. Not that Allen didn't earn his 258 million dollars as Steven A claims. Whew, I feel better now.

It's a stupid comparison in today's NFL. You can look at any number of games and show how an undrafted guy making the NFL minimum put up better stats then a guy making top dollar. How about when Mike White blew away Joe Burrow? I mean Burrow was the NUMBER ONE DRAFT choice making a lot more money then free agent drifter White. And to make matters even worse, Steven A is comparing a RB's production to a QB's production. Well in last years playoff game Allen had 3 TD's and almost 400 yards of total offense. Did Taylor even get to a combined 100 yards? No, he didn't he had 84 total yards. And how many TD's did he have in that game? As for yesterday's game did Steven A consider if weather conditions might have impacted an elite RB's numbers compared to an elite QB's? If the expectation going forward is that Allen must have a great game every week because he makes a lot of money now then Bills fans are going to be very disappointed.

First off let's wait until the end of the season to see where the Bills and Patriots are. And Mac Jones isn't driving the Pats success. It's the fact they they're coached by the greatest coach in the history of the NFL; they have an outstanding offensive line; they have a solid running game; a fantastic OC; a very good defense that during their win streak has played consistently well and without any obvious weaknesses. And this is not about Allen versus Mac Jones. If you switched the teams and Allen was QBing the Pats and Jones the Bills our record would be 3 - 7 and the Pats would probably be 9 - 2.

I hate to disagree but Steven is a blowhard. What does Allen's contract got to do with anything? Should they have put him in at DT to try to tackle Taylor? Steven A's analysis here is beyond lazy. Yesterday's game was all abut the Bills not being physical and the Colts jamming the football down their throats. Sometimes when I hear this fool talk football I wonder if he actually knows anything about football.

Offensive line penalties. He can't fix their poor play other then taking a chance and putting the other rookie at RT and moving Williams to guard. But they can emphasize not having all those pre snap penalties and holding penalties. It's bad enough that they're a lousy O-line but the penalties take it down to a new level of low. BTW, the worst TO was a special tams play. Not much the OC can do about that.

I agree that this is just plain stupid by DaBold. Take Allen's first INT. It was because back to back penalties had taken us out of FG range and put us in 3rd & 18. The INT thrown on 3rd down only gave the Colts the ball at their own 40. At worst it took away a chance for a long FG had Allen checked it down for 10 yards. Those two penalties on that drive took away a possible TD. The INT may have cost us a FG. And let's not forget that O-line penalties did a lot of damage in the Jacksonville game to. And as others have pointed out, the only TO that really hurt the Bills was McKenzie's fumble. It led directly to a Colts TD and turned a close game into a blowout right before half.

The Pats were able to do this because: * They committed very few offensive penalties. We used to cry that it was because the refs were in the bag. The reality is that the Pats coach their players not to commit dumb penalties and if they keep doing it they get rid of them. * During those years the Pats had a great O0line to enable a strong running game. And while they didn't have a King Henry or Taylor they did have a stable of solid NFL RB's. Our O-line and RB's wouldn't see the field on those Pats teams.

The defense has NOT been lights out when we've faced a strong offense. Even against KC the Chiefs moved up and down the field. Allen put pressure on Mahomes and the Chiefs Offense by moving the ball and scoring 31 points. This forced Mahomes and the Chiefs to force the ball leading to bad TO's. And for sure I would hang the primary reason for the Bills losses against TN & Indy on the defense.

Again against the Colts Allen was throwing all sorts of quick short passes. Were you watching the game? The issue though was twofold: * Any kind of negative yardage play (you know those off tackle runs that lose 2 yards) or penalty (you know holding & false starts) screws this up and forces us to try to stretch the field. This is why short quick passes are seldom a sustainable form of offensive scheme (see Jets Mike White and Dolphins Tua this season or last years Steelers team). * The other issue with the short passing scheme is it chews up time. This would be great if the Bills defense could get a running team off the field but in two losses they haven't been able to. So yesterday, the Bills had the ball twice from the start of the game to the 2 minute warning. TWICE!!!! They scored a TD on one of those drives and on the other drove to the Colts 30 before back to back O-line penalties took them out of FG range and into a 3rd & 18. By the time the Bills got the ball for a 3rd possession they were down 24 - 7 in the last 2 minutes of the half. Hardly the place to go check down Charlies.

Allen held the ball to long near the end of the half because he was trying to hit a deep pass play. We were down 24 - 7 at the time and do people really think a FG would have made a difference at that point? I don't.

It's not just about the penalty yards, which is how the NFL ranks this stat, but when it happens in a game. A 5 yard defensive holding penalty on 3rd & 18 is worse then a 10 yard offensive holding penalty on first & 10 at your own 30. Yesterday, the offense looked like it was on it's way towards tying the game up after the Colts had scored on their first possession only to have back to back O-line penalties rob us of even a FG. And twice the D committed penalties to let the Colts convert 3rd and long. That likely robbed our Offense of two possessions.

I'll be okay with 27 -9!

I agree. I do think that signing Milano & White and drafting Edmunds and Oliver have paid off. But drafting D linemen for our last two 2nd round and last first round picks will be a disaster if they don't pan out. And while folks can say "but we spent last years first on Diggs" yea and that has worked out magnificently. Can you imagine this offense with a stud guard and very good RB? Things can change fast in the NFL - check out NE & KC - and I hope in a few weeks I'm eating my words here. But it does look like McBean messed up by prioritizing the D over the O. The result may be that instead of an elite offense and average defense we now have two slightly above average Offense & Defenses.

I completely disagree with this. After falling behind 14 - 0 Allen led the Bills on a TD drive to cut the lead to 14 - 7. The Bills didn't see the Ball again until the two minute warning and were down 24 - 7. At that point Allen drove the Bills into long FG range. I saw no evidence of "panic" by Allen in the first half. In the 3rd quarter on the Bills first possession Allen had a pass blocked at the LOS and then threw two nice balls with the first being dropped and the 2nd Davis slipped and instead of catching a ball in stride for a huge gain had it fly off his finger tips. After the Bills finally forced an INDY punt the next series Allen drove the Bills into FG range and then they missed the 46 yarder. I saw no evidence of Allen panicking in the Bills first two possessions of the 3rd quarter. Now Allen and the rest of the team did panic when the Colts went up 31 - 7. But the idea that Allen went into "panic mode"at the first bit of trouble is not what I saw today. What I saw today was a defense that could not stop the Colts running game. I also saw a defense that couldn't force a Colts punt until midway through the 3rd quarter.

Agreed and while the offense struggled it was the defense that pooped the bed today. The Colts didn't punt until mid-way through the 3rd quarter. They scored 31 points on their first 5 possessions. Given the weather conditions this should have been a 20 - 17 type game. But for the 2nd time this season when the Bills went up against a physical offense the defense was completely blown out. The defenses play today would be like if the offense went three & out their first 5 drives and turned the ball over twice while doing so. In fact the offense did move the ball within limits. Sorry but IMO this one was on the D just like the TN loss was.