WideNine

When you look at pure yp/g teams that rush the ball well seem most likely to be those that make the post season. So when I consider run defense I am thinking what tweaks could lend to more post-season defensive success that has often alluded us. I also feel we need to get more heat on Mahomes than we have in past playoffs...he gets way to much time to throw. Babich had a great first outing keeping him hemmed in and getting pressure on him. Pacheco will be back and he will be a factor we did not have to deal with last time. That being said, KC and Buffalo don't have great yp/g numbers in either category, but have good red zone defense and good offensive balance and good records... although KC has had just a crap ton of luck in tight games they should have lost. Our defense has been opportunistic and usually good in the red zone area where it needs to be to live in their world of light boxes and defending the deep strike. Buffalo's red-zone defense allows touchdowns on just 50.0% of trips (eighth) and just 1.79 points per drive (also eighth). Top passing offenses and W/L records are: Cin 4-8 Sea 7-5 Det 12-1 Bal 8-5 Atl 6-6 TB 12-1 Buffalo 17th KC 12th Top rushing offenses: Phi 10-2 Bal 8-5 Wa 8-5 Det 12-1 GB 9-4 Az 6-6 Buffalo 11th KC 19th

Tough to use the niners game as a measuring stick. A lot of factors in that win including that generally we were able to tighten up in the red zone and force kicks. Also that forced fumble at the goal line was huge in flipping the script. The niners also looked cold and miserable out there trying to execute in the elements which they did not do very well (I felt like they were ready to head for the bus pretty early on in the contest). They remind me of the Bills when we had too much salary locked up in players who can't play. They need to jettison load up on draft capital and rebuild. In better conditions (dome) against teams that are good at running the ball and better in the red zone, letting them waltz down the field and still score will be an issue. I am not as worried giving up rushing yards either (if we are just looking at numbers) as long as we can shut teams down enough in the red zone. If we can limit teams that can run the ball to field goals, I trust our offense to get traction and score and our defense to force turnovers - they have been great at that all year and I like our chances when we get any team chasing our score. Having all our starters stay healthy is huge too with the amount of play action and motion good teams are using...defenses need that veteran savvy to not get fooled and still be able to quickly click and close after diagnosing plays. Been tough playing with so many backups the past few seasons down the stretch. Appreciate their effort, just an experience thing. I like the pipeline of defensive talent this team is developing. Still need DTs that can anchor and get some push to be stout against the run. DQ is getting long in the tooth and if this team wants to live with 4-man fronts and light boxes (considering the numbers advantage with good teams that use a lot of heavier personnel packages) McD needs to invest in a young slobberknocker or two for that front 4 rotation.

Interesting going back and taking a look at preseason predictions. 4 guys where one (Gruden) was actually a HC and the doom and gloom predictions of 3 of the guys vs his take on the Bills in hindsight is hilarious. A small wager on the side where it looks like Gruden does not need to break out the massage oil.

If anyone hit Allen like that or tried to give him the business I would expect Spencer Brown would channel his inner Kyle Turley defending his QB. From what I have seen on the field Brown has some dog in him. Forever my all time favorite clip of an O lineman going into berserker mode protecting his QB.

McD had it easy this year. Took long enough for his OC Brady (first full season) to get this offense on track with his (mostly new) receivers and OL shakeup. His new DC who was also new to the role took way too long acclimating to calling the defense (new to that too). 2-3 whole games...terrible. ...and how his coaching staff handled the normally reliable Bassamatic that needed to be de-yipped. Hey, someone has to try to let the air out of Shaw's tires 😁

Teams like the Ravens, Eagles, and Detroit I probably worry about the most. In that Ravens game they got up on us quick, and gashed us on every run, and I think every trip to the red zone they scored. Combine that with our offense unable to get much going it was tough one to watch. Our offense has come together a lot more since then, Samuel is getting healthier, and we have added Cooper so I would think we are in a much better position to hang with teams and make it more of a boat race if our defense is struggling.

I don't think it is that complex if you go single high. I would not take Taron off the field. Most teams have sub packages for early downs where the analytics show run tendencies to get teams into more pass situations. Your LBs have to be solid with their run fits too. Having an extra LB hitting the wrong gap ain't going to help. We will see what the Bills do, but I don't think the front 4 with Oliver are dominant enough to stop the runs. Give me Oliver all day on passing downs. We will see... I just want the Bills to be successful and if there was ever a time to fine tune a package it would be down this stretch with the AFC East locked up. The Bills keep their scheme straight forward so there are less mistakes, but they have shown they can adapt when forced to like when they ran more dime with a safety down low last season with all the LB injuries.

This D and the desire to play light boxes will and has worked well against most teams, particularly if we can get the jump on them early with the box score. I still think Baltimore, Detroit, and Philly would present a lot of issues for our defense. Oliver is a bit light and can be moved and with the extra blockers better teams have shown they can get them out to the second level and gash us on longer runs. Our saving grace has been shoestring tackles by Rapp and some very timely turnovers and sacks. We have shown more ability to tighten up in the red zone. We will see when we play Detroit... I struggle seeing them settling for field goals.

Cover Brown maybe. Just hold him like you are being blocked Nope 2 deep shots and zilch.

WTH was that DB thinking?? Your in man with little help behind you, stay on your feet, wrap up, and drive him out of bounds or just hang on till someone comes to finish him off. Launches himself and whiffs.

EPA is an a good way to assign weight to plays, but aggregate data can sometimes water down or miss important data points. I would think it is always important for coaching staffs to recognize any shortcomings of a tool and know where their coaching subjectivity needs to come into play to tailor plans vs opponents. From nfelo site: Shortcomings of EPA EPA does have its limitations, most notably in its ability to measure individual performance. EPA analysis works for QBs because that position dictates so much of the game. However, football is a team sport, and attributing EPA to other positions like running-back or wide-receiver typically does not yield as much signal. EPA can’t distinguish between a well run route and a well thrown ball. A further limitation of EPA is its inability to capture non-point benefits or benefits not realized by the play in question. For instance, rushing EPA ignores any positive benefit a strong running game may create in the passing game by slowing down a pass rush or the benefit it may provide to a team in their ability to close out games. EPA based analysis can also be limited by the dataset itself. Most EPA analysis is derived from nflfastR's public historical data. This dataset does not have classifications for formation or scheme, which means EPA based analysis typically doesn't have context for the degree of difficulty or intention of the play. Does a QB have high EPA because scheme put them in advantageous positions or because they really played at a high level? A final (and perhaps least recognized) limitation of EPA is its susceptibility to leverage. The power of EPA comes from its ability to recognize that not all yards are created equal. Distance and field position matter. Averaging 5 yards per play generally isn't that great, but gaining 5 yards on any one play can be worth a whole lot of EPA if it converts a first down and extends a drive. The problem with this approach is that it has a tendency to overweight individual plays that may or may not be very predictive of the future. For example, if a team loses a random fumble on first and goal, (which carries an EP value of about six points), they'll end the game with a heavily deflated EPA that understates their overall efficiency as an offense

I acknowledge they are a better team with Tua and their record does not reflect that - fair point. Agree to disagree on the last point. I was not satisfied with our defensive performance and probably would never be and for me it goes beyond scheme to guys winning their 1 on 1's and getting off blocks and how many down field completions we still gave up in their passing game. And our RZ defense was non-existent.

That is true. Just terrible phantom calls that took points off the board or that ridiculous call on Rapp that helped extend that Miami drive.

So bottom line you believe we should be comfortably satisfied with the Bills performance against a 2-6 team coming down to a 61 yard FG having to be made by a shakey kicker? I don't think anyone is unhappy with the fact that we pulled off the "W".

I understand it is a passing league, but I think we are seeing a league-wide trend for 2-TE heavy personnel and more running. I am not looking for a 3-4 defense with Shane Conlin as our ML.. the league evolves and in some ways we see things go out of vogue and get revived with twists. I certainly think that Derrick is a throw back to RBs of yore. Against poor teams where we can get up on them early I don't have a lot of concerns, against good teams that can stop our offense and run at will down the field and then score in the RZ - it's a problem. Perhaps the aggregate data says it generally works, but curious how that will hold up against the better teams down the stretch in that smaller sample size. We will see

I get what Joe is saying, but not sure if that explains why RZ defense was terrible. I think I could better live with conceding drives with runs and short passes moving the sticks if those drives ended in 3-point attempts. That is an area on the field where you are not defending explosive (passing) plays so how do the Bills tighten up there? Or just chalk it up to Miami having schemes down there where we did not have answers, but teams will look to do similar things to us if they have the players to pull it off.

Yeah. I think I saw DQ get blocked on one play cleanly one-on-one by their FB, and that is a battle I normally would expect the big guy to win. Not the best outing for that group for sure

I think Oliver can be a bit of a liability too as good teams invite the penetration from 3-techs like him and either let him take himself out of the play or wash him out with wham blocks. Great penetrating pass rushers have to be able to switch gears playing the run.

I think that is the only way we could beat them...unless Henry or Lamar blow a tire and either can't run so you don't have to defend both. Henry is just a load if he gets past the first level.

I agree that the horrible series that started with the Cook drop could have changed the game script. So could Mostart hanging onto the rock and not fumbling away Miami's chance to take a solid lead which allowed us to put them into catch-up mode. There are ways the coin could have flipped for either team, but I would have liked to see something a bit more creative generating some pressure and getting a few stops. Obviously, that comes with some risk as it was a Miami blitz that left things wide open on the Davis pitch and catch TD. But they often got pressure on Allen and forced him off his spots far more than we did with Tua. That said, Allen was Houdini avoiding the rush and making smart decisions with the ball. I guarantee Spags would not have rolled with something so vanilla, or he would have changed things up that weren't working. I just cannot forget all the times we roll into the playoffs with a solid offense and great Allen performances only to have the defense piss it away so there is some history bias at play. With a defensive HC and so much investment on that side of the ball, you expect more.

Defense as a whole yes, not just Von. And I think our lightish LBs are dropping like flies because so many backs and blockers are hitting them with a full head of steam at the second level. Of course I remember too well the one 3rd down where we did finally stop them and Von was Offside and gave them the fresh set of downs so was salty about that. There were attempts to set the edge and string out the zone runs, but mixed results as they usually churned out 5 or more yards And even when our ends did the right thing, strung things out and turned the runner back inside there was no one picking up the cut back lanes. Glad for the win against a desparate Miami squad, but defensive scheme, players, or both left me with anything but warm fuzzies. Not taking anything away from Miami, if that owner blows things up I think that would be foolish as I did not see a lot of quit in that team we played.

Yeah I know there are some who will disagree with me and they are welcome to it. In no world was that a good defensive outing for us yesterday and some of that is the respect for Hill and Waddle, but have seen similar defensive performances and strategies this season. We can mask a lot if our team can jump out and get early leads, but we get exposed by better teams who hang with us or take the lead and stay committed to running the ball. We are near the bottom at 4.8 yds/attempt, but in good company with Detroit although they have faced fewer rushing attempts as we are a game up on them.

We are not built to stop a running team and will simply get run over....again. There are teams we match up decently against, the Ravens are not one of them.

I think it may be more this along with the play (in our system) of some of the guys in front of him. He excels more at press man-coverage and less so as a zone DB that understands spacing an where he needs to be at all times. That being said, it would be nice to have a lock-down corner that could take away their "guy" and allow us to play some single-high and add some help in the box to stop the runs and short passes from turning into long-gainers.

I agree with many of your posts, but honestly expected more out of Von yesterday and I hold no personal grudges against the man. He was AWOL and there were plenty of throws where Tua had to go to his second or third read and we got no heat on him. Not just Von, I expected more out of our DEs in general generating some heat or just getting their hands up in throwing lanes to the flats and tipping a few of the flurry of short passes QBs have been able to make against us. Needs fixing across the line and IMO Von has not nearly earned any of that big paycheck OBD cut him. Honestly not happy with the defense as a whole. I know McD's philosophy is light boxes 2-high safeties so our DBs are not on an island playing nickel with the LBs in coverage. The idea is not giving up the big passing play, but giving up some runs, but we are getting eaten alive and even when you would expect some kind of adjustment in the red zone where the bend needs to stop bending - we break and give up scores. I don't see the point of giving up 90 yard drives that end up in TDs and eats up all the clock and leaves Allen and our offense cooling their heels. So Von was only one of the things that I found annoying with this lazy approach to this vanilla defensive game planning. Coaches may have to build in some mechanisms for recognizing personnel grouping/packages and occasionally doing some different things to stop the runs or the short passes for long gains. Or we need the players that can execute McD's 4-man front/light box defense and tighten up when needed in the red zone.