No_Matter_What

@Virgil Re snap counts. We had 70 total defensive snaps. Hairston 36 / White 34 Poyer 58 / Hancock 15 So CB2 was 50/50 job and there was actually less Hancock than recent games.

What makes you think that? Honest question. I posted this because I am a math guy and I love to play with playoff machines. I also don't find it stupid to discuss possible scenarios (as some others here find it, which is perfectly fine). As for hating that, I really do hate that. I am not a doom and gloom guy, and I think we can win SB every year, but I do think going against Ravens on the road is probably the worst of possible scenario. Why wouldn't I hate that?

Agreed that a lot may change. But right now it's more than 15-20%. We are 52% to end up 5th seed and Ravens are 68% to end up 4th. That makes 35% that this actually happens. And I think NYT model is pretty accurate. It is very realistic option.

I am well aware of this. I noted in the OP that I am expecting them to split. But even if they do, Ravens are 75% favorites to win that division.

Don't worry I am enjoying the season. I am one of those guys who hate all these doom and gloom posts. That doesn't mean I am also not enjoying playing with PO calculators. I think it is fun to discuss various options.

I didn't say it means we are doomed if that happens. Just stating my opinion how it looks like. We can win there and I'd believe Bills, but I think we can agree that it is hard to imagine tougher scenario for the Bills than to start WC at Ravens.

These are the first five tiebreakers: 1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). 2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division. 3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games. 4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. 5. Strength of victory in all games. Yes divisional games are very important. But if we win out, we are 14-3. In such case if they lose ANY other game they are 13-4 so tiebreakers won't matter.

I know things can change a lot between now and the end of the regular season, but at the moment things are shaping up that way, in my opinion. I think it’s safe to say that whoever wins the NFC North will be the 4-seed. My money is on the Ravens, especially now that Rodgers has hurt his wrist. I still think the Steelers will split with them, but the Ravens will probably end up 10–7, and the Steelers will have a hard time matching that. At the same time, it’s hard to imagine a 10–7 (or even 11–6) Ravens team having a better record than any other division winner. So whoever loses the division race in the AFC is most likely going to end up playing at Baltimore. The NYT playoff calculator says the Pats* have an 86% chance and we have 14%. I’d say that’s pretty accurate. Even if we beat them at their place after their bye (which I think we have a solid chance to do), we’d still only be at 29%. We need them to drop one more game than us. So if we win out (which is very hard to do), we need them to lose to the Ravens. If we lose one more, then we need them to lose to the Ravens plus another game. They have the Giants and Dolphins at home, and the Bengals, Ravens, and Jets on the road. If I had to guess, we beat them, lose one more game, they lose to the Ravens, and it all comes down to their last game at the Dolphins. The Fish might pull an upset, but I wouldn’t count on it. There are other possibilities — we could lose the division and end up as the 6-seed or so — but I don’t think we’ll finish worse than 12–5. To sum it up, the most likely scenario right now is Bills @ Ravens.

They need to go 4-3 with one loss being to Broncos / Chargers. There is a chance, but NYT says they still have 56% to make it.

It's not. Last year vs the Rams. https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/401671773 We scored TDs on our last 4 possessions and still lost lol

Who'd have thought that the Panthers will be 6-5 after 10 games!

Hardly a dagger. 57% to make playoffs still But still nice.

If only Broncos or Browns had any kind of offense...

Problem is that neither Chiefs nor Ravens lose today

Cmon Denver score a TD finally