JGMcD2

They’re not going back to the 2021 version of the offense where Josh Allen threw the ball 646 times. It’ll probably land somewhere between the 480 attempts from last season and the 560 range of the two years before that. There are about 92 targets to replace with the departures of Mack Hollins, Amari Cooper, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Quintin Morris. Even if you bump that number up to 170 (gets you to the 160 ATT from Allen), Josh Palmer likely takes up half of that on his own. That leaves around 85 targets to spread among Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, and Kincaid - all of whom missed time last year and are in line for increased target share. And that’s before factoring in whoever ends up as TE3, plus Ty Johnson, James Cook, and the rest of the backfield. Those targets won’t sit around unused for long.

Before his injury, Keon Coleman was on pace to produce numbers similar to Xavier Worthy over a full 17-game season. If you're counting Worthy as a hit and applying nuance to Rashee Rice’s situation, then by the same logic, Keon should count as a third genuinely productive receiver for the Bills. More importantly, the Bills are consistently finding useful wide receivers without having to throw premium resources at the position as often as the Chiefs. They’ve shown they don’t need a 1,600-yard receiver (Diggs) to average 30 points per game. That was the entire point behind Brandon Beane’s frustration earlier this week - they proved they could generate elite offensive output without a top-heavy WR room, and yet people are still acting like the sky is falling.

You’re actually reinforcing my point. Kansas City has invested 432 points on WRs, while Buffalo has only spent 206 points - less than half. Yet both teams have ended up with a similar number of genuinely productive receivers. That isn’t “balancing” the scales; it’s tipping them in Buffalo’s favor. If you’re paying twice as much in draft capital for essentially the same return, that is a case of diminishing returns. If Kansas City hits on one or two late-round receivers, they don't spend two 2nd-round picks and a 1st on a WR. If they hit on Skyy Moore, they wouldn't have drafted either Rice or Worthy. They had to keep investing in the position because they didn't secure a productive piece. On the flip side, if Buffalo doesn't hit on Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir, they're likely turning around and taking a WR high. In fact, they had to when things fell apart with Stefon Diggs and they let Davis walk in free agency. This stuff doesn’t happen in a vacuum.

I’m genuinely not that anxious about the Deone Walker vs. Jalen Royals outcome. I understand the concern, especially with Royals landing in Kansas City, but I think it’s a bit of a leap to assume he’s going to hit just because of where he was drafted. The Chiefs track record at wide receiver is more mixed than it might seem. Since Mahomes became the starter, they’ve drafted six WRs in seven drafts. Rashee Rice is the clear success, and Xavier Worthy looks promising. But they’ve also invested in Skyy Moore (2nd round) and Mecole Hardman (2nd round), who haven’t quite lived up to expectations. Then there’s Cornell Powell and Tremon Smith - both 6th-round picks - where the returns were minimal. We’ll see how Royals pans out, but it’s far from a guarantee. The Bills have taken a similar number of swings - seven WRs in seven drafts since Allen became the starter. Gabriel Davis and Khalil Shakir were solid hits, and we saw some encouraging things from Keon Coleman pre-injury. We’ll see about Kaden Prather, but like Kansas City, we’ve had some late-round misses too - Justin Shorter, Marquez Stevenson, and Isaiah Hodgins among them. The Chiefs’ approach reflects a volume strategy with premium picks, while the Bills have made the most of late selections. Neither team has a perfect record, but the production per draft value arguably favors the Bills so far.

I really appreciate your input here - especially with @GunnerBill involved, I think this could lead to some really interesting discussion, given that you both build out draft boards each year. Who else did you have available at TE, NB, CB, and OT that fits the Bills’ needs and could have been taken instead of Hawes, Hancock, Strong, and Lundt? That should help illustrate the decision-making at each spot, particularly when compared to the idea of trading up for someone like Lambert-Smith or Horton.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I’d still be interested in your perspective on the gap between Kaden Prather and the group below - that feels like an important piece of the opportunity cost discussion that wasn’t fully addressed. KeAndre Lambert-Smith Tory Horton LaJohntay Webster Jimmy Horn Tommy Mellott Tez Johnson Ricky White Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on that comparison.

Reply is here

Hancock has a legitimate shot to unseat Cam Lewis, who played over 50% of the Bills’ defensive snaps in 2024. Hawes is viewed as a strong blocker - does that mean he takes over Alec Anderson’s role as the “6th offensive lineman”? If so, he’d be on the field for roughly 26% of offensive snaps, which is about 8% more than the average Bills 5th WR saw last season. The Bills typically carry four outside corners out of camp. If Strong beats out Dane Jackson and Ja’Marcus Ingram, that alone might justify the pick. Chase Lundt is probably a long shot to make the roster, likely competing with Ryan Van Demark for the final OL spot. That said, you’re high on him - did you prefer Horn, Mellott, Johnson, or White instead? Here’s who we passed on to draft a TE3, a CB/S hybrid, another outside corner, and a developmental WR: KeAndre Lambert-Smith (Trade-up required) Tory Horton (Trade-up required) LaJohntay Webster Jimmy Horn Tommy Mellott Tez Johnson Ricky White The next WR drafted was Kaden Prather. To me, the gap between him and the group above feels negligible. Realistically, he has as good a chance as anyone to beat out Tyrell Shavers, Jalen Virgil, or KJ Hamler for the WR5 job - which translates to about 18% of offensive snaps per game. That role typically averages 1 target, 0.65 catches, and 7 yards per game. None of these names are pushing past Palmer, Shakir, Coleman, or Samuel.

No, he wanted the most money. That was proven when he went to Pittsburgh after saying he only wanted warm weather cities.

In that clip, Beane pulls back the curtain on their roster strategy. He felt it was a weak wide receiver class, and when they were on the clock, none of the options meaningfully upgraded their top four. So why spend valuable draft capital on someone who might be your fifth receiver when they typically play 12 personnel or 6 OL? It’s a candid look at how they approached the board. The average snap percentage for the Bills' 5th WR across all games in 2024 (playoffs included) is approximately 17.84%. The average statline for the Bills' 5th wide receiver in a given game was: 1.0 target per game 0.65 catches per game 7.0 receiving yards per game

Here’s a breakdown of wide receivers drafted in the top four rounds, highlighting who the Bills could have reasonably selected at their spots in the first three rounds. (Note: The focus is on rounds 1–3 since the Bills’ fourth-round picks are typically at the end of the round) I counted 61 wide receivers drafted in the top four rounds from 2021 to 2024. The names marked in red are players I would have realistically been willing to draft at the Bills’ prior pick - with the benefit of hindsight. I think there are 8 guys in red text, and they're surrounded by a bunch of landmines. They don't exist in an abundance like you're making it out to be. 2021 Players reasonably within reach: Kadarius Toney (Pick 20) Rashod Bateman (Pick 27) After Pick 30 (Rousseau): Elijah Moore (34) Rondale Moore (49) D’Wayne Eskridge (56) Tutu Atwell (57) Terrace Marshall Jr. (59) After Pick 61 (Basham): Josh Palmer (77) Dyami Brown (82) Amari Rodgers (85) Nico Collins (89) Anthony Schwartz (91) After Pick 93 (Brown): Dez Fitzpatrick (109) Amon-Ra St. Brown (122) Jaelon Darden (129) Tylan Wallace (131) Jacob Harris (141) 2022 Players reasonably within reach: Jahan Dotson (16) Treylon Burks (18) After Pick 23 (Elam): Christian Watson (34) Wan’Dale Robinson (43) John Metchie III (44) Tyquan Thornton (50) George Pickens (52) Alec Pierce (53) Skyy Moore (54) After Pick 63 (Cook): Velus Jones Jr. (71) Jalen Tolbert (88) After Pick 89 (Bernard): David Bell (99) Danny Gray (105) Erik Ezukanma (125) Romeo Doubs (132) Calvin Austin (138) 2023 Players reasonably within reach: (Trading up between Picks 20–23 wasn’t realistic; those teams stood pat.) After Pick 25 (Kincaid): Jonathan Mingo (39) Jayden Reed (50) Rashee Rice (55) After Pick 59 (Torrence): Marvin Mims (63) Tank Dell (69) Jalin Hyatt (73) Cedric Tillman (74) Josh Downs (79) After Pick 91 (Williams): Michael Wilson (94) Tre Tucker (100) Derius Davis (125) Charlie Jones (131) Tyler Scott (133) 2024 Players reasonably within reach: Xavier Worthy (28) Ricky Pearsall (31) Xavier Legette (32) After Pick 33 (Coleman): Ladd McConkey (34) Ja'Lynn Polk (37) Adonai Mitchell (52) After Pick 60 (Bishop): Malachi Corley (65) Jermaine Burton (80) Roman Wilson (84) Jalen McMillan (92) After Pick 95 (Carter): Luke McCaffrey (100) Troy Franklin (102) Javon Baker (110) Devontez Walker (113) Jacob Cowing (135)

Yeah, we definitely ran five deep at receiver. Total season snap counts don’t tell the whole story - you’ve got to look at it game by game to really see how the fifth active wideout was used. There were numerous instances where we used our 6th OL more than we used our 5th WR. From their perspective, there just wasn’t a receiver available at any point in the draft who they believed would jump Josh Palmer, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, or Curtis Samuel on the depth chart. And that matters. How many of those receivers were actually stepping in and providing a real upgrade over any of those four? And it’s not just about who you could have taken - it’s about what you gave up to take them. Was drafting Jayden Higgins or Luther Burden worth passing on Max Hairston? Would you really take Tre Harris, Jack Bech, Kyle Williams, or Isaac TeSlaa over TJ Sanders? Pat Bryant, Jaylin Noel, Savion Williams, Tai Felton, Chimere *****, or Dont’e Thornton over Landon Jackson? Or Arian Smith, Jaylin Lane, Jalen Royals, Elic Ayomanor, or Jordan Watkins instead of Deone Walker? Then you get into the later rounds. What’s the real delta between guys like KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Tory Horton, LaJohntay Webster, Jimmy Horn, Tommy Mellott, Tez Johnson, or Ricky White - and the guy they ended up drafting in Kaden Prather? Especially when you'd likely have had to spend a pick one or two rounds earlier just to get them on the field for 17% of the snaps and have them average under 1 catch and 10 yards a game.

That’s not an accurate way to calculate the snap count for our 5th WR. Several of those players were starters at different points and missed time due to injuries. This is a more accurate breakdown of how often our 5th WR played in each game. The average snap percentage for the Bills' 5th WR across the listed games is approximately 17.84% where they averaged 1 Target, .65 Catches and 7 Yards. Snap Counts for the Bills' 5th WR by Game: Arizona: Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 21% 2 Targets, 1 Catch, 19 Yards @Miami: Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 9% 1 Target, 0 Catches, 0 Yards Jacksonville: Curtis Samuel - 27% 3 Targets, 3 Catches, 22 Yards @Baltimore: Curtis Samuel - 37% 2 Targets, 2 Catches, 8 Yards @Houston: Tyrell Shavers - 26% 0 Targets, 0 Catches, 0 Yards @New York: Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 32% 0 Targets, 0 Catches, 0 Yards Tennessee: Curtis Samuel - 4% 1 Target, 0 Catches, 0 Yards @Seattle: Jalen Virgil - 14% 0 Targets, 0 Catches, 0 Yards Miami: Jalen Virgil - 5% 0 Targets, 0 Catches, 0 Yards @Indianapolis: Jalen Virgil - 5% 0 Targets, 0 Catches, 0 Yards Kansas City: Jalen Virgil - 4% 0 Targets, 0 Catches, 0 Yards San Francisco: Jalen Virgil - 26% 0 Targets, 0 Catches, 0 Yards @Los Angeles: Jalen Virgil - 2% 0 Targets, 0 Catches, 0 Yards @Detroit: Curtis Samuel - 27% 2 Targets, 1 Catch, 1 Yard New England: Jalen Virgil - 0% 0 Targets, 0 Catches, 0 Yards New York: Tyrell Shavers - 14% 1 Target, 1 Catch, 69 Yards, 1 TD @New England: N/A (Only 3 WRs played) 0 Targets, 0 Catches, 0 Yards Denver: Amari Cooper - 36% 3 Targets, 2 Catches, 8 Yards Baltimore: Curtis Samuel - 31% 2 Targets, 2 Catches, 9 Yards @Kansas City: Curtis Samuel - 19% 3 Targets, 1 Catch, 4 Yards They had the luxury of picking in the top 10 to land that incredible young WR. If you're looking for that type of player, you're probably going to need the team to bottom out first. That’s how Cincinnati got Chase to pair with Higgins. That’s how Miami landed Waddle to pair with Hill. That’s how Philadelphia got Smith to pair with Brown.

They didn’t, and look what happened - they averaged 30.9 PPG, and their QB won MVP. As for moving up to get Brian Thomas Jr., it wasn’t as simple as it might seem. The only trade between picks 12 and 23 was the Vikings trading up from 23 to 17 with the Jaguars. If the Bills wanted to get to 17 from 28, they would’ve needed to give up a lot of draft capital. Pick 28 was worth 660 points, while pick 17 was worth 950, meaning the Bills would’ve needed to add at least 290 points. To put that into perspective, that’s like offering a second-round pick and a late-round pick, or a third-rounder and a future second-round pick. And this is exactly what Jacksonville did. They moved back just 6 spots, from 17 to 23, and still picked up a mid-third-rounder instead of a late second. For a trade to happen, both sides need to see value in it, and there’s no guarantee Jacksonville would’ve been willing to make that much of a move down the board.

In that clip, Beane pulls back the curtain on their roster strategy. He felt it was a weak wide receiver class, and when they were on the clock, none of the options meaningfully upgraded their top four. So why spend draft capital on someone who might only be your fifth receiver when you're typically running 12 personnel or 6 OL? It’s a candid look at how they approached the board to fit their offense.