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Inigo Montoya

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Posts posted by Inigo Montoya

  1. Diggs has been frustrated as the season came to an end about his lack of involvement in the offense.  Diggs had another monster season and is more than just another WR1, he is a top three WR in the NFL.  Diggs finished 4th in the NFL in receptions, 5th in receiving yards, and tied for 3rd in TDs.  He did that playing only 16 regular season games.

     

    The Bills played 18 games (if you throw out the Damar Hamlin game) in the 2022 season including the playoffs.  That gives us two 9 game halves of the season to compare. I divvied up the stats to see if there was a significant difference in the two halves.  There was definitely a big drop in production over the second half of the season.

     

    First 9 games;

    Average targets per game;  11

    Average receptions per game;  8

    TDs;  7

    Average yds per game;   109.4

     

    Last 9 Games;

    Average targets per game: 8.2

    Average receptions per game;  5.2

    TDs;  4

    Average yds per game;  65.8

     

    The question is why did Diggs production drop off? There are a couple of things that were a factor, Josh injured his elbow near the end of the 8th game of the season and that injury seemed to linger well into the second half of the season.  The other issue was a few bad weather games where conditions were not ideal for an efficient passing game.  I'm not sure if Josh's elbow and weather can account for all that drop off though.

     

    That leaves 5 possibilities for Diggs 2nd half decline;

    1.   Defenses did something different later in the season to slow Diggs 

    2.  Dorsey moved away from Diggs-centric offensive game plans

    3.  The O-line play deteriorated and the passing game suffered

    4.  Allen regressed in the second half of the season

    5.  Diggs regressed in the second half of the season

     

    It could be combination of some or all of them, but I think #1 and #5 are the least likely.  Every defense tries to take Diggs out of the game and I think Diggs was still getting open late in the year.  Even when Diggs is "covered" he still seems to catch the ball. 

     

    This is something that Dorsey is going to have to figure out this off season.  We have a tight cap now and the answer on offense is probably not going to be adding more weapons for Josh, but rather getting more out of the weapons we already have.

     

     

     

    • Thank you (+1) 3
  2. 3 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

    Don't you think that 20 points were too many for a Zach Wilson led offense? 

     

    Not as much as I think 17 points wasn't enough for a Josh Allen led offense.

     

    The Bills defense gave up 0.9 points more than their season average that game.

     

    The Bills offense scored 11.4 points less than their season average that game.

     

    Which side of the ball under performed?   Take your time, I know it's a tough one and it involves math. 

     

    I'm done with this ridiculous argument.  It's like talking into a dead phone.

     

     

  3. Just now, Billever76 said:

    Jets ran the ball down our throats in the 4th and ate clock...we couldn't stop them

     

    The fact remains that the defense gave up 20 points that game, seven of them on a short field turn over by the offense that handed the ball to the Jets already in the Red Zone.   

     

    It was the offense that couldn't get out of it's own way that game.  The Bills' offense is what lost that game, not the defense.  I don't know how you can look at that game and not cede that point unless you're just going to be argumentative for the sake of being argumentative.

     

    • Like (+1) 1
  4. 7 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

    This is the same defense that made Zach Wilson look like he had his "lights on".😎

     

    The Jets offense only scored 20 points that game.  One of the Jets' TD drives started at the Bills' 19 yard line after Josh was picked.  The defense did not lose us that game.

     

    🍻

  5.  

    @Billever76  Let's see that stat for points and yards allowed in the last three playoff wins.  I would expect the stats for three games when the Bills lost to look bad.

     

    I'm like you trying to figure out what happened against Cincy.  It was the worst Bills' game of the entire season, maybe the last three seasons.  I think the defense as a whole for the Bills is a solid unit that had a really bad game at a really bad time.

     

    I'm not ready to throw out the baby with the bathwater yet.

     

    🍻

     

  6. The defense really played well all year.  They didn't show up against Cincy, but neither did the offense.

     

    The Bills defense finished 4th in the NFL giving up an average of 19.1 points a game.  That's the only defensive stat that matters.  That is a fantastic average.  I'll take Josh Allen scoring 20 points to win a game any week, and that's why the Bills only lost 3 regular season games all year.

     

    I'm not sure what happened against Cincy.  The team just collapsed on both sides of the ball.  That one performance doesn't mean that the Bills' defense is broken.  I'd sign up for another season where the defense gives up less than 20 points a game in a heart beat.

    • Like (+1) 3
  7. 1 minute ago, khlax3 said:

    I think Hines will be back and his contract will be re-worked. They will add a year or 2 to the contract and give him some guaranteed money to reduce his cap hit. He provides value as a KR/PR/RB. If you let him and singletary go you need to go out and sign at least 2 running backs. 
     

    I would expect to see a running back room of 

    cook- cap hit 1.3

    Hines - 3 million

    bigger back vet around 2 to 2.5 million cap space 

     

    Hey khlax

     

    I was with you until the very end, I think they rework Hines but go the rookie route with a solid RB in the middle rounds to round out the RB room.  They should resign Duke to keep a veteran presence in the RB room.  His cap hit was only $300K this year.

     

    If there is an injury mid-season there always seems to be middle of the road / serviceable veteran RBs out there waiting for a GM to call.

     

    That would keep the total cap hit for the RB position at around $5mm.  That $3mm in cap savings can be spent on the O-line or elsewhere.

     

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  8. Cook isn't going anywhere.  He has looked better as the season progressed and still has three years left on his rookie contract and has a cap friendly hit of $1.3mm in 2023.  I don't think Beane is going to keep both Singletary and Hines.  It is going to be one or the other.

     

    Nyheim's contract is not cheap, his cap hit in 2023 is $4.79mm, and in 2024 it is $5.48 

    https://overthecap.com/player/nyheim-hines/6989

     

    Singletary is an unrestricted free agent and according to Sportrac his projected free agent contract should be right around $5.5mm annually for three years.

    https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/devin-singletary-29110/market-value/

     

    Hines is great in the return game and has stand alone value in that respect.  He has more speed than Motor and is probably a better receiving back than Motor.  We haven't seen him carry the ball much.  In his five years in the league the most carries he's had in a season was 89 in 2020.  That year he averaged 4.3 yds per carry.  His career average is 3.9 yds per carry.  The most receptions Hines had in a season was 63 in both '18 and '20.  His career average yds per reception is 7.4 yds.  Across his career, Hines catch percentage is 77%.

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HineNy00.htm

     

    Singletary had 177 carries this year and averaged 4.6 yds per carry.  He had 38 receptions this year with an average of 7.4 yds per reception.  The most receptions he's had was 40 in the '21 season.  Across Motor's career, his catch percentage is 75%.

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SingDe00.htm

     

    The question is which back, Motor or Hines, compliments Cooks the best?  In Cook we have a speedy / receiving back.  That is the same skill set that Hines brings to the table, plus his return skills.  Does it make sense for the offense to have their two primary RBs with essentially the same skill set?  Also, are Cook and Hines able to soak up the 170 plus carries Singletary has a season?   Cooks has looked good running the ball but has a smaller frame.  Can we expect him to hold up carrying the ball 100+ times a year in the NFL?

     

    Singletary's projected free agent contract isn't much more than what Hines is under contract for now.  What does Beane decide to do?  The problem is I don't think Beane can afford both.  Beane's last option is to release both of them and build around Cook with new faces.

     

     

    • Like (+1) 4
  9. There is a lot of talk on the boards the last few days about Beane going out and trading for DeAndre Hopkins.  He will be 31 this upcoming season and I still think he has some gas left in the tank.  As much as I want to see another legitimate offensive threat on the field besides Diggs, the truth of the matter is that the Bills just can't afford him.

     

    Diggs 2023 contract pays him $20.2mm

    Diggs 2024 contract pays him $26.5mm

     

    Hopkins 2023 contract pays him $22.6mm

    Hopkins 2024 contract pays him $11.3mm

     

    There is no way the Bills can afford to sink $40+mm into the WR position this season with Josh and Von's contract also on the books.  We are too tight against the cap for that to happen.  You also have to think about the draft capital the Bills would have to give up to get him.  Trading draft picks, i.e. inexpensive rookie contracts, to sign an expensive veteran will make the cap situation worse, not better.  If Beane needs to plug in more young and cheap contributors to this roster to manage the cap, the worst thing he could do would be to deal away his draft picks.

     

    While we would all love to see WR1 Diggs, WR2 Hopkins, WR3 Davis, WR4 Shakir, it is simply not going to happen.  After next season D-Hop's contract becomes more manageable at $11mm, but he will be another year older and with his more reasonable contract numbers I'd be surprised if the Cardinals move on from him at that point if he's still on the roster.

     

    When people here debate what Beane should do this offseason, they need to be realistic and accept that signing any $20mm veteran WR simply isn't in the cards.

     

     

  10. 2 hours ago, ArdmoreRyno said:

    Honestly sick of watching our quarter billion dollar QB run for his life on every play. When Josh has time to throw the ball, he might be one of the best QB's in league history... but we've invested so much into building a defense to stop Kansas City, which has been great during the regular season, we've done nothing to protect JA. 

     

    I absolutely love Dion, but he's really-really bad. I just watched the edited down replay from the NFL today and he held or was smoked on EVERY DOWN. It's been an issue all for him. Somehow he's graded 24th in regards to tackles by PFF.

     

    Let's review our draft picks for our OL the past few years... 

     

    2022

    Luke Tenuta - 6th round - released in the pre-season

     

    2021

    Spencer Brown - 3rd round - allowed 36 QB pressures in 2021. Allowed 42 pressures in 2022. He's currently ranked 76th in the NFL at the tackle position. There are teams with 4 tackles ranked higher than Spencer. 

    Tommy Doyle - 5th round - Has never started in 2 years. Tore his ACL this year against Miami. His pass blocking grade is worse than Spencer's

    Jack Anderson - 7th ground - Practice squad and now he's on the Giants roster. Was on the 2 deep for a while and graded out better than Brown and Doyle pass blocking in '22. 

     

    2020

    NONE DRAFTED

     

    2019

    Cody Ford - 2nd round - Now with the Cardinals. One of the worst rated guards in the NFL ever since he was drafted by Buffalo. 

     

    2018

    Wyatt Teller - 5th round - Traded to Cleveland in 2020 for 2 picks (ended up being Fromm and Hodgins). Teller is now one of the best guards in the NFL (2x All-Pro). He's rated 17th overall in the NFL. Side note: Cleveland has two of the best guards in the league with Teller and Bitonio.

     

    Let's review the 2 deep.... 

     

    Dion Dawkins - 24th rated tackle

    Rodger Saffold - 74th rated guard

    Mitch Morris - 24th rated center

    Ryan Bates - 42nd rated guard

    Spencer Brown - 76th ranked guard

     

    David Quessenberry - 68th ranked tackle

    Bobby Hart - NR (guard) - Only played 128 snaps this year

    Greg Van Roten - 52nd ranked guard

    Ike Boettger - NR (guard) - Only played 6 snaps this year due to injury

     

     

    WHY DON'T WE INVEST IN OUR OFFENSIVE LINE?!?!?! We have 2 guys on the team we've drafted since 2018 on the line. TWO. I won't even begin to go over who has been drafted for other teams that are solid starters now, after some of our busts draft picks.

     

    FREE AGENTS

    Ben Powers - G - Baltimore 

    Isaac Seumalo  - G - Philly

    Dalton Risner - G - Denver

    Mike McGlinchey - T - SF

    Orlando Brown Jr. - T - KC

    Kaleb McGary - T - Atlanta

    Jawaan Taylor - T - Jax

    Kelvin Beachum - T - Arizona

     

     

    Nice post OP, I appreciate the time you spent putting it together.  

     

    Beane did bring in some free agents to try to shore up the line.  During Josh's second year in 2019 Beane signed Morse, Spain, Feliciano, Nseke, and Spencer Long. They did improve the O-line play compared to Josh's rookie season. They brought in Daryl Williams in 2020 and he played well for one season. Bobby Hart headlined last year's 2021 O-Line free agents. This year was Saffold, Quessenberry, and Van Roten.  Of all these free agents the only one who has been consistently solid is Morris.  Daryll Williams had one good year and then fell off precipitously.

     

    There is no question that the O-Line play as a whole has regressed this year.  I think everyone realizes that the O-Line needs an overhaul including Beane.  I suspect he will make some investments there this off season.

     

    I think Beane is a great GM.  I think he hoped to get more out of the O-Line than he got this year.  I think he knows he is going to have to shore up the O-Line to protect Josh and win a championship.  The Cincy game sucked but we still have the foundation to be a Super Bowl team.  I trust Beane will get some fresh blood on the O-Line.

     

    • Agree 1
  11. Just now, Aussie Joe said:


    So what’s stopping them ? Kelce has been kicking their ass for years…

     

    Im more worried how the Bills stop him next week ( if they win of course… I’m. not looking past the Bengals ) 

     

    That’s exactly my question, what’s stopping them?

     

    Some of that is Kelce, no argument, but a lot of that is also scheme.

  12. Kelce is open on every damn play.  Not a step on the defender open, but no one within five yards of him open. 

     

    Kelce is obviously a fantastic football player with an incredible mix of size and athleticism, but what you see on the field with Kelce is the value of Andy Reid off the field.  Reid is able to scheme that guy open a hundred different ways.  He is the focal point of the Chiefs' offense, he is the one guy the defense absolutely has to cover, and he is still running wide open all over the field.   

     

    Dorsey needs to shamelessly steal every one of Andy Reid's designed Kelce plays and put them in his playbook.  Run them with Knox, run them with Diggs.  I don't care who you run them with, if they have five yards of empty turf around them, the play is going to move the sticks.  

     

    If imitation is the highest from of flattery, Dorsey needs to start blowing some sunshine up Andy's prodigious backside ASAP.

     

     

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  13. 3 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:


    I’m in the Josh Allen is elite but is turning the ball over too much yet some don’t allow criticism brigade. 
     

    led the league with 19 turnovers.   

     

     

    I agree with you Teddy that Josh turns the ball over too much, but Josh Allen is a package deal.   He had all those turnovers on the way to a 13-3 record and was a cancelled game away from a legit shot at the #1 seed this year.  On the whole I'll take that package deal, turnovers and all. 

     

    To your point though, if Josh could adjust his game to cut down on the turnovers and still score points like he does, he would be otherworldly.  It's fair as a fan to hope for that, I do too, but at the end of the day I just can't get down on Josh for his style of play that continues to win games for us.  

     

    🍻

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