Inigo Montoya
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Posts posted by Inigo Montoya
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I drafted him on my fantasy team the last two years so I watched a lot of his play. He just isn't playing good ball, not getting separation, and couldn't get target share on two different teams. I think he might have hit the wall.
In the words of Randy Jackson, "That's a no from me dog..."
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Benford / midrange FA / day 3 draft pick --- camp competition to replace Poyer.
Bernard / Spector / midrange FA / day 3 draft pick --- camp competition to replace Edmunds.
Take the money saved to put a legit O-Line in front of Josh. I think Josh is good enough to elevate any WR on the field with him. Give Josh a clean pocket for 3 seconds and he will shred any secondary no matter the WRs.
Priority #1 for Beane has to be to protect Josh and retool that O-Line.
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I agree, if they’re going to win a Super Bowl it will be on Josh Allen’s arm, not McDermott’s defense.
I think McBeane hoped Josh would be enough to get the job done on offense but he can’t do it alone. They need to change their philosophy and go offense heavy and build an offense around Josh that will score 35 points a week and dare teams to keep up.
Elite offense, elite kicking game, above average special teams, and an average defense needs to be the script going forward. They’ve got a lot of that in place already.
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Wide receivers are now like CBs in that a team can only afford to have one great one on a second contract on the roster because the position cost it too high. Teams will pay their #1 WR big bucks and then churn through rookie WR and hope one of them hits on a cheap contract for four or five years to pair with their #1. No team can afford to pay two #1 WRs market value on a second contract if they have a franchise QB on the books.
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Great write up.
The biggest thing is to just keep making it into the playoffs and then it's anyone's ballgame. You can't account for the odd bounces that occur during a playoff run. It takes a talented team and a lot of luck to win a Super Bowl.
If the Bills can keep making it into the tournament they will eventually have luck break their way and they will win one. It's Beane and McDermott's job to keep that roster competitive so they keep making it into the final eight. If they can do that eventually lightning will strike.
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10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Frazier has 3 strikes against him.
The first is, he had 3 years as HC of the Vikings, and they were not particularly successful 21-33-1Now, he had no freakin' QB (Ponder and Cassel) and he actually managed to get them to a playoff game and a 10-6 record with Ponder.
But that's lost in the small print.
The second is, the current trend is to hire hot young offensive minds
The third is, his team keeps falling short in the clutch. Now maybe that's not all on him - injuries, players not executing - but the Buck Stops Here.
I think another big problem is that people wonder how much of the Bills' defense is Frazier's and how much is McDermott's. It's the same issue with Bieniemy in KC with Andy Reid there.
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Diggs has been frustrated as the season came to an end about his lack of involvement in the offense. Diggs had another monster season and is more than just another WR1, he is a top three WR in the NFL. Diggs finished 4th in the NFL in receptions, 5th in receiving yards, and tied for 3rd in TDs. He did that playing only 16 regular season games.
The Bills played 18 games (if you throw out the Damar Hamlin game) in the 2022 season including the playoffs. That gives us two 9 game halves of the season to compare. I divvied up the stats to see if there was a significant difference in the two halves. There was definitely a big drop in production over the second half of the season.
First 9 games;
Average targets per game; 11
Average receptions per game; 8
TDs; 7
Average yds per game; 109.4
Last 9 Games;
Average targets per game: 8.2
Average receptions per game; 5.2
TDs; 4
Average yds per game; 65.8
The question is why did Diggs production drop off? There are a couple of things that were a factor, Josh injured his elbow near the end of the 8th game of the season and that injury seemed to linger well into the second half of the season. The other issue was a few bad weather games where conditions were not ideal for an efficient passing game. I'm not sure if Josh's elbow and weather can account for all that drop off though.
That leaves 5 possibilities for Diggs 2nd half decline;
1. Defenses did something different later in the season to slow Diggs
2. Dorsey moved away from Diggs-centric offensive game plans
3. The O-line play deteriorated and the passing game suffered
4. Allen regressed in the second half of the season
5. Diggs regressed in the second half of the season
It could be combination of some or all of them, but I think #1 and #5 are the least likely. Every defense tries to take Diggs out of the game and I think Diggs was still getting open late in the year. Even when Diggs is "covered" he still seems to catch the ball.
This is something that Dorsey is going to have to figure out this off season. We have a tight cap now and the answer on offense is probably not going to be adding more weapons for Josh, but rather getting more out of the weapons we already have.
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3 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:
Don't you think that 20 points were too many for a Zach Wilson led offense?
Not as much as I think 17 points wasn't enough for a Josh Allen led offense.
The Bills defense gave up 0.9 points more than their season average that game.
The Bills offense scored 11.4 points less than their season average that game.
Which side of the ball under performed? Take your time, I know it's a tough one and it involves math.
I'm done with this ridiculous argument. It's like talking into a dead phone.
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Just now, Billever76 said:
Jets ran the ball down our throats in the 4th and ate clock...we couldn't stop them
The fact remains that the defense gave up 20 points that game, seven of them on a short field turn over by the offense that handed the ball to the Jets already in the Red Zone.
It was the offense that couldn't get out of it's own way that game. The Bills' offense is what lost that game, not the defense. I don't know how you can look at that game and not cede that point unless you're just going to be argumentative for the sake of being argumentative.
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7 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:
This is the same defense that made Zach Wilson look like he had his "lights on".😎
The Jets offense only scored 20 points that game. One of the Jets' TD drives started at the Bills' 19 yard line after Josh was picked. The defense did not lose us that game.
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@Billever76 Let's see that stat for points and yards allowed in the last three playoff wins. I would expect the stats for three games when the Bills lost to look bad.
I'm like you trying to figure out what happened against Cincy. It was the worst Bills' game of the entire season, maybe the last three seasons. I think the defense as a whole for the Bills is a solid unit that had a really bad game at a really bad time.
I'm not ready to throw out the baby with the bathwater yet.
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The defense really played well all year. They didn't show up against Cincy, but neither did the offense.
The Bills defense finished 4th in the NFL giving up an average of 19.1 points a game. That's the only defensive stat that matters. That is a fantastic average. I'll take Josh Allen scoring 20 points to win a game any week, and that's why the Bills only lost 3 regular season games all year.
I'm not sure what happened against Cincy. The team just collapsed on both sides of the ball. That one performance doesn't mean that the Bills' defense is broken. I'd sign up for another season where the defense gives up less than 20 points a game in a heart beat.
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1 hour ago, Sherlock Holmes said:
Keep Cook and trade for a veteran guy who has SB victory experience, McCaffrey!
But If that happens you wouldn't be able to go to any games. Doesn't McCaffrey have a restraining order on you???
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1 minute ago, khlax3 said:
I think Hines will be back and his contract will be re-worked. They will add a year or 2 to the contract and give him some guaranteed money to reduce his cap hit. He provides value as a KR/PR/RB. If you let him and singletary go you need to go out and sign at least 2 running backs.
I would expect to see a running back room of
cook- cap hit 1.3
Hines - 3 million
bigger back vet around 2 to 2.5 million cap space
Hey khlax
I was with you until the very end, I think they rework Hines but go the rookie route with a solid RB in the middle rounds to round out the RB room. They should resign Duke to keep a veteran presence in the RB room. His cap hit was only $300K this year.
If there is an injury mid-season there always seems to be middle of the road / serviceable veteran RBs out there waiting for a GM to call.
That would keep the total cap hit for the RB position at around $5mm. That $3mm in cap savings can be spent on the O-line or elsewhere.
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Cook isn't going anywhere. He has looked better as the season progressed and still has three years left on his rookie contract and has a cap friendly hit of $1.3mm in 2023. I don't think Beane is going to keep both Singletary and Hines. It is going to be one or the other.
Nyheim's contract is not cheap, his cap hit in 2023 is $4.79mm, and in 2024 it is $5.48
https://overthecap.com/player/nyheim-hines/6989
Singletary is an unrestricted free agent and according to Sportrac his projected free agent contract should be right around $5.5mm annually for three years.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/buffalo-bills/devin-singletary-29110/market-value/
Hines is great in the return game and has stand alone value in that respect. He has more speed than Motor and is probably a better receiving back than Motor. We haven't seen him carry the ball much. In his five years in the league the most carries he's had in a season was 89 in 2020. That year he averaged 4.3 yds per carry. His career average is 3.9 yds per carry. The most receptions Hines had in a season was 63 in both '18 and '20. His career average yds per reception is 7.4 yds. Across his career, Hines catch percentage is 77%.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HineNy00.htm
Singletary had 177 carries this year and averaged 4.6 yds per carry. He had 38 receptions this year with an average of 7.4 yds per reception. The most receptions he's had was 40 in the '21 season. Across Motor's career, his catch percentage is 75%.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SingDe00.htm
The question is which back, Motor or Hines, compliments Cooks the best? In Cook we have a speedy / receiving back. That is the same skill set that Hines brings to the table, plus his return skills. Does it make sense for the offense to have their two primary RBs with essentially the same skill set? Also, are Cook and Hines able to soak up the 170 plus carries Singletary has a season? Cooks has looked good running the ball but has a smaller frame. Can we expect him to hold up carrying the ball 100+ times a year in the NFL?
Singletary's projected free agent contract isn't much more than what Hines is under contract for now. What does Beane decide to do? The problem is I don't think Beane can afford both. Beane's last option is to release both of them and build around Cook with new faces.
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Let's keep the masochism going!
Which was worse?
When your surgeon amputated the wrong leg?
OR
When you caught your wife sleeping with your best friend?
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Josh has been papering over deficiencies on this team the last couple of seasons. It caught up with them last Sunday. If the Bills are going to win a Super Bowl he is going to need some more help.
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I was hoping to see the Nuclear Nyheim playbook unleashed against the Bengals.
Apparently it was delayed at the printers.
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If you only look at on the field performance, Daboll should win going away.
If you want to throw in off the field drama, McDermott could be a dark horse.
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There is a lot of talk on the boards the last few days about Beane going out and trading for DeAndre Hopkins. He will be 31 this upcoming season and I still think he has some gas left in the tank. As much as I want to see another legitimate offensive threat on the field besides Diggs, the truth of the matter is that the Bills just can't afford him.
Diggs 2023 contract pays him $20.2mm
Diggs 2024 contract pays him $26.5mm
Hopkins 2023 contract pays him $22.6mm
Hopkins 2024 contract pays him $11.3mm
There is no way the Bills can afford to sink $40+mm into the WR position this season with Josh and Von's contract also on the books. We are too tight against the cap for that to happen. You also have to think about the draft capital the Bills would have to give up to get him. Trading draft picks, i.e. inexpensive rookie contracts, to sign an expensive veteran will make the cap situation worse, not better. If Beane needs to plug in more young and cheap contributors to this roster to manage the cap, the worst thing he could do would be to deal away his draft picks.
While we would all love to see WR1 Diggs, WR2 Hopkins, WR3 Davis, WR4 Shakir, it is simply not going to happen. After next season D-Hop's contract becomes more manageable at $11mm, but he will be another year older and with his more reasonable contract numbers I'd be surprised if the Cardinals move on from him at that point if he's still on the roster.
When people here debate what Beane should do this offseason, they need to be realistic and accept that signing any $20mm veteran WR simply isn't in the cards.
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21 minutes ago, Cygnus99 said:
I don't see the Bills making it to the playoffs next season.
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2 hours ago, ArdmoreRyno said:
Honestly sick of watching our quarter billion dollar QB run for his life on every play. When Josh has time to throw the ball, he might be one of the best QB's in league history... but we've invested so much into building a defense to stop Kansas City, which has been great during the regular season, we've done nothing to protect JA.
I absolutely love Dion, but he's really-really bad. I just watched the edited down replay from the NFL today and he held or was smoked on EVERY DOWN. It's been an issue all for him. Somehow he's graded 24th in regards to tackles by PFF.
Let's review our draft picks for our OL the past few years...
2022
Luke Tenuta- 6th round - released in the pre-season2021
Spencer Brown - 3rd round - allowed 36 QB pressures in 2021. Allowed 42 pressures in 2022. He's currently ranked 76th in the NFL at the tackle position. There are teams with 4 tackles ranked higher than Spencer.
Tommy Doyle - 5th round - Has never started in 2 years. Tore his ACL this year against Miami. His pass blocking grade is worse than Spencer's
Jack Anderson- 7th ground - Practice squad and now he's on the Giants roster. Was on the 2 deep for a while and graded out better than Brown and Doyle pass blocking in '22.2020
NONE DRAFTED
2019
Cody Ford- 2nd round - Now with the Cardinals. One of the worst rated guards in the NFL ever since he was drafted by Buffalo.2018
Wyatt Teller- 5th round - Traded to Cleveland in 2020 for 2 picks (ended up being Fromm and Hodgins). Teller is now one of the best guards in the NFL (2x All-Pro). He's rated 17th overall in the NFL. Side note: Cleveland has two of the best guards in the league with Teller and Bitonio.Let's review the 2 deep....
Dion Dawkins - 24th rated tackle
Rodger Saffold - 74th rated guard
Mitch Morris - 24th rated center
Ryan Bates - 42nd rated guard
Spencer Brown - 76th ranked guard
David Quessenberry - 68th ranked tackle
Bobby Hart - NR (guard) - Only played 128 snaps this year
Greg Van Roten - 52nd ranked guard
Ike Boettger - NR (guard) - Only played 6 snaps this year due to injury
WHY DON'T WE INVEST IN OUR OFFENSIVE LINE?!?!?! We have 2 guys on the team we've drafted since 2018 on the line. TWO. I won't even begin to go over who has been drafted for other teams that are solid starters now, after some of our busts draft picks.
FREE AGENTS
Ben Powers - G - Baltimore
Isaac Seumalo - G - Philly
Dalton Risner - G - Denver
Mike McGlinchey - T - SF
Orlando Brown Jr. - T - KC
Kaleb McGary - T - Atlanta
Jawaan Taylor - T - Jax
Kelvin Beachum - T - Arizona
Nice post OP, I appreciate the time you spent putting it together.
Beane did bring in some free agents to try to shore up the line. During Josh's second year in 2019 Beane signed Morse, Spain, Feliciano, Nseke, and Spencer Long. They did improve the O-line play compared to Josh's rookie season. They brought in Daryl Williams in 2020 and he played well for one season. Bobby Hart headlined last year's 2021 O-Line free agents. This year was Saffold, Quessenberry, and Van Roten. Of all these free agents the only one who has been consistently solid is Morris. Daryll Williams had one good year and then fell off precipitously.
There is no question that the O-Line play as a whole has regressed this year. I think everyone realizes that the O-Line needs an overhaul including Beane. I suspect he will make some investments there this off season.
I think Beane is a great GM. I think he hoped to get more out of the O-Line than he got this year. I think he knows he is going to have to shore up the O-Line to protect Josh and win a championship. The Cincy game sucked but we still have the foundation to be a Super Bowl team. I trust Beane will get some fresh blood on the O-Line.
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Brady is the heir apparent to Dorsey and the Bills' OC job. One year of being OC "coaching" JA17 and he will be a hot HC candidate again.
It just depends on if he wants to wait for Dorsey to get a HC job or not.
Texas RB Bijan Robinson
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
I think this is the year we see what Cook can really do. I think he can be special. Why spend a 1st that relegates Cook to the bench? I hope Robinson is gone before Beane selects to remove the temptation.