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Inigo Montoya

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Posts posted by Inigo Montoya

  1. 1 minute ago, FFadpecr said:

    1) Zero

     

    2) Who cares? Watson is a loser. Sack Machine who just went 4-12.

     

    1.  You may be right, we'll see.

     

    2.  I think the only three NFL teams that wouldn't trade starting QBs with the Texans, these legal issues not withstanding, are the Bills, the Chiefs, and the Chargers.  

  2. 1 minute ago, mannc said:

    Dude, pay attention:  Deshaun Watson is NOT tradable right now, or at anytime before the allegations against him by the 24 or so women are fully resolved, and even then, only if the resolution is favorable to Watson.  There is no way that happens before the NFL draft.  Until and unless it is resolved in his favor, he is radioactive and will not be going to the AFC East, the NFC West or anywhere else.  Go find something else to worry about.  

     

    Unless he is on the Commissioner's Exempt list, he can be traded.  These are civil charges, not criminal charges at this point.  He can be moved before the draft and will be "cheaper" to get as a result of these allegations.  If you are hoping all 32 NFL franchises suddenly find a conscience and do the honorable thing, good luck with that.... Dude

     

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  3. Dolphins;  The draft pick swapping that the Dolphins engaged in last week makes is less likely that they will be in the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes going forward.  If they were really trying to swing a trade with Houston I don't think they would have traded away the #3 pick where one of the Big 4 draft day QBs is likely to be selected.  They will probably all be gone by the time the Dolphins pick with their new #6 pick.  Anything can happen but I think this lessens the chance Watson goes to South Beach.  It looks like Miami is going to roll with Tua instead of grabbing one of the blue chip QBs this year.  I think they were the biggest threat to land Watson in our division.

     

    Impact on Bills; I think that's obviously good news for the Bills.  Tua might continue to develop and become a solid franchise QB, but he sure didn't look like one last season.  There will be more talent around Tua to support him but I'd rather keep Watson out of Miami.  If you put Watson in Miami I think its a real dog fight with them to win the AFCE this year.  The Phins' roster has some talent and could make a run with a true franchise QB under center.  Fortunately it looks like they are rolling with Tua. 

     

    Jets;  The Jets are still sitting there at #2 and according to media reports are all in on Zach Wilson from BYU.  They do have the draft capital to swing a trade with Houston (two 1st rounders this year and next) but Joe Douglas seems to have a head on his shoulders and I'd be surprised if he trades a bunch of 1st rounders to Houston to bring in a QB with a big contract when he can lock up a solid young QB on a rookie contract for years and still have a lot of draft capital to restock a roster that is bereft of talent.  On the whole, I think the smart money is on the Jets using their two 1st rounders, their 2nd rounder, and two 3rd rounders to draft a young franchise QB and put a supporting cast around him. 

     

    Impact on Bills;  I'm not sure which scenario is better for the Bills, the Jets trading the store and mortgaging their future for Watson who is a stud and having no team around him, or the Jets rolling the dice on a rookie QB and upgrading the roster.  I could argue both sides of that equation but ultimately I think keeping Watson out of the ACFE is the best outcome for the Bills.  Could Watson overcome the Jet's franchise dysfunction single handedly?  Maybe.  But it would take a couple of seasons to get that roster stocked with enough talent to really make them a threat.  Drafting a franchise QB is always a roll of the dice and there is a chance the Jets won't have the institutional discipline to make it work, ala Sam Darnold.  Lets hope the Jets stay put at #2 and draft a QB.

     

    Patriots;   The Patriots have one pick in each of the first three rounds in this year's draft including the #15 overall selection in the 1st round.  The Patriots have been spending money like drunken sailors in free agency and while the en vogue take is that you can't win by spending big in free agency, I look at the Pat's roster now compared to the end of the last season and I can't imagine how they are not going to be dramatically better this year.  All they need now is a quarterback....  I could see Bill swinging for the fences and sending three 1st rounders for Watson.  With the scandal swirling around Watson I think his price has gone down.  Would there be a lot of snarking and commentary about the Watson / Kraft massage stuff, yep, but I don't see that stopping them from making the move if it's there to be made. The Pat's and Texan's front offices are connected and a deal could get done.

     

    Impact on Bills;  This is the nightmare scenario.  I think it would be a coin toss about winning the division if Watson ends up in New England.  Belichick's defense along with Deshaun Watson's passing would be a deadly combo.  They still have money to go out and buy some B list wide receivers that are still on the market like Golden Tate, Marquise Goodwin, Dede Westbrook, and Cordarrelle Patterson.  Bill doesn't have ten more years to coach.  He needs to start winning now.  Jimmy G would help that but not like Watson would.  I don't expect Cam to be under center Week 1.  Let's pray it's not Watson.

     

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  4. I hope this takes Miami out of the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes.  That new Miami pick at #6 isn't going to get the Texans one of the top QBs this year and I can't imagine the Texans would be excited to get Tua from the Phins as part of a trade.  

     

    Overall take away.... Good news for us.

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  5. 1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

     

    I love the way you guys overdramatize.  I never said we were doomed.  I did say I had concerns.  

     

    The Bills had the 3rd best passing attack in the NFL last year.  It was a thing of beauty.

     

    We had the 21st best running attack.  It was not a thing of beauty.  Our RBs were not effective.  

     

    Our pass D finished the season ranked 13th - mediocre

     

    Our run D finished 17th - mediocre.    

     

    According to Gosselin's formula, our ST finished 8th - good.

     

    I stand by what I said originally:  we were good passing the ball and on special teams.  Everything else was blah.  Without Bojo and Roberts, I'm afraid special teams becomes blah too. 

     

    Which means the fate of the season rests on Josh's arm because our blah defense and blah running attack isn't going to produce a lot of Ws.   

     

    Our cap situation being what it is, Beane had to scramble just to hold on to our own FAs and wasn't able to upgrade the blah areas.  

     

     

     

     

     

    Hey Hondo,

     

    I think your post above is a reasonable position.

     

    Until I see the breaking news that Deshaun Watson has been traded to a team in the AFCE, I still think it's the Bills' division to lose.  We have avoided the curse of many teams after a very successful season... we have avoided a major exodus of talent.  Standing pat is not always a bad thing, and realistically, Beane had very little choice in the matter with COVID pulling the salary cap rug out from under his feet. 

     

    I'm shocked he was able to do as much as he's done so far.  I expected two of our three big free agents to walk.  If I had posted on this site two weeks ago that the Bills were going to re-sign Daryl Williams, Matt Milano, Feliciano, McKenzie, and Levi Wallace...  AND ...upgrade the backup QB position and replace John Brown with a comparable or better option to be our WR3, people would have pilloried me.  

     

    🍻

     

     

     

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  6. The Bills need to give him $40ish a year for as many years as Josh will agree to.   Each year the contract will become a bigger bargain as the cap goes up and up and takes QB salaries upwards with it.  Getting the most expensive piece of your roster on a long term bargain contract will be a huge competitive advantage for this franchise going forward. 

     

     

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  7. I think Belichick looked at this last season like Beane looked at 2018.  Both knew they were going to take their lumps with a subpar roster with an eye towards success the following year.  For the Patriots, this is the following year, and they are flush with cap space and are using it effectively.

     

    Those throwing shade at what the Pats are doing right now in free agency are just whistling past the graveyard.  That team is stocked right now.  The one big question remaining is who is going to be under center?  

     

    Another big story in our division is the Jets who are also flush with cap space not doing anything big.  I think going to New York and wearing green is a tough sell around the NFL even with a new coach there.

     

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  8. I'd be happy to just see Beane resign McKenzie, BoJo, and Andre Roberts.   I was really hoping to get Feliciano back but Beane should be able to sign those three players for about the same cost as resigning Feliciano.  I think those three player's contribution as a whole would be greater for the Bills than Feliciano's alone. 

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  9. 7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

     

    So, based on data, the Bills are benefiting from having Roberts on the team:

    image.thumb.png.fd951b1b72f3a71f35dce6c02e4a4c86.png

     

     

    Thanks for the links.  It's been my perception that he makes poor decisions sometimes about when to bring a ball out, but apparently overall, he gains us more than he costs us.

     

    Occasionally he will get stuck bringing one out, and we all remember the Indianapolis Wild Card game where our average starting field position was actually in the stadium tunnel behind the end zone, but I thought that most of the season he seemed to make good calls on when to bring it out.  I know it's a money game, but I hope Beane can find some money under a couch cushion somewhere to bring back Roberts and BoJo.  We enjoyed really solid special teams play this past year and I think sometimes it gets taken for granted.

     

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  10. Having a dedicated kick return specialist is a luxury in the NFL today.  Admittedly, Roberts doesn't add much on offense, but his sure handedness fielding the ball and his ability to get tough yardage is a huge benefit to the offense.  The single biggest statistical predictor of whether an offense scores on a drive is the drive's starting field position.  A big part of the Bills' offensive success last season was due to solid special teams play and good starting field position.  I hope Beane can find a way to bring Roberts back this year.  I was able to find some stats to support Robert's value to the Bills.  I know that returning kicks and punts is a team effort and you need good blocking as well, but I believe the returner is responsible for the lion's share of how effective a return is going to be. 

     

    The first link below is an article that fleshes out starting field position for kick offs and punts, and as we would expect from watching the Bills last year, the Bills are near the top of both statistics.  The Bills are second in starting field position after kickoffs, and in the top ten on punts. When you combine the two it looks like the Bills have the top return game in the league.

     

    Most teams have different returners for kick offs and punts, but on the Bills Roberts does both, and he does it very well.  He seems to have a knack for when to bring the ball out of the end zone and when to take a knee.  He sparked our offense several times last season cranking out a big return to get some momentum back and flip the field for the Bills' offense.  Roberts also is decisive on punts and fields the ball and starts bolting straight up the field.  He doesn't dance around after he catches the ball like a lot of returners do giving up valuable seconds that allow the coverage teams to converge.

     

    The second link below has stats on average length of kickoff returns and the Bills lead the NFL with an average kick off return of 27.64 yards.  The third link below has the same stats for punt returns, and on punts Andre Roberts is ranked 7th in the NFL by average yards per return.

     

    It seems that Roberts is on the bubble again, a familiar situation for him as he was let go by the Jets the same year he was a Pro-Bowl returner.  I'd hate for the same thing to happen again this year.  I know there is only so much money to go around, and if it weren't for the COVID salary cap situation we wouldn't be having this conversation, but I hope Beane can find the money to bring him back.  McKenzie had a return touchdown and might be able to slide into the role, but he's not under contract at this point either.  Roberts is a difference maker for this team and it would be a shame if we have to let him walk.  It would be even worse if we cut him loose and he lands somewhere else in the AFCE.

     

    https://thecommutesports.com/2020/10/27/nfl-starting-field-position/

     

    https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?group=O&cat=KR&yr=2020&lg=NFL&sort=kravg

     

    https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?group=O&cat=KR&yr=2020&lg=NFL&sort=kravg

     

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  11. 10 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

    I am Switzerland neutral on the Bengals despite living in Ohio for the past 28 years. I have so many friends who are Bengals fans and have this exact mindset. I do have more empathy for them than I do the browns. Probably because I love Joey Burrow, he is the absolute goods. 

     

    They need to put a solid O-Line in front of Burrow before he's crippled.  I think the Bengals would have gladly overpaid to get Daryl Williams and shore up the RT position just like Beane overpaid for Morse to help his young franchise QB.  Burrow is the real deal if he can stay off injured reserve. 

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  12. I think what the last few days have shown us is that if Beane didn’t release a pending free agent player a couple of days ago like John Brown and Jefferson, then he is probably trying to resign them.  If Beane knew he wasn’t going to be able to keep someone I think he would let them go now so their agent could get to work finding a new gig for them.

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  13. I don’t think you should allow one of the best punters in the game to walk out the door, especially one who can effectively kick in what is likely the worst kicking venue in the NFL. That position is just too important to take a step back on.

     

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  14. I was looking at Sportrac to see where the Bills cap situation was after releasing Brown and Jefferson and restructuring Butler and Morse.   We currently have $25m in cap space which is 13th best in the NFL.

     

    Just as interesting I thought was the numbers for each team's dead cap space.   The Bills are 13th best in the league with just $4.1m of dead cap on the books as of today.  The league average for dead space is $9.3m.   The Chargers are in the best shape with only $58,000 in dead cap space, and the Eagles are worst with $40.1m 

     

    It's nice to see that Beane has made contracts over the last four years with an eye towards maximizing salary cap flexibility and minimizing dead cap space.  The Eagles are in the same situation the Bills were in during year two of the Beane regime when he deliberately ate all of the dead cap off of the Bills' books in one year.  It is going to be hard to field a competitive roster in Philly this year with 25% less salary available to build their roster. 

     

    Beane has said repeatedly that this low dead cap hit is not an accident.   He knows that to field a competitive lineup you can't handicap your roster with a big dead cap hit.   It's because of this that  I don't expect to see Beane making a lot of moves that push the cost of contracts down the road.   I think he will do his best to structure contracts that will not put the franchise back in cap trouble.  It's what a responsible GM should do.

     

    Some people are saying Beane should restructure a bunch of current contracts to free up money now and utilize signing bonuses and other tricks that push the cap hit into future years because the cap will go up 20% next year.  What they aren't considering is that the cost of player contracts will go up 20% next year as well.   Player salaries are going to keep pace with the cap.  Every team will have an extra 20% to spend on their roster, not just the Bills.   Bad contracts and dead cap space will hurt just as much then as they do now.

     

    Beane has spoken frequently about "sustained success".  I don't think he is going to change how he operates and mortgage the team's future like the Saints did to try and win now.

     

    https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/

     

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  15. 4 minutes ago, Reader said:

     

    I think the question is, is that line good enough to handle the Chiefs? While I completely agree that blowing up our O-line is a bad idea, do we need to make some tweaks for the next season on the starting line? I'm not confident that if we bring back the same line from last year, maybe even Ford included, we can hold up against them.

     

     

    I agree. 

     

    For all the talk of "continuity" last year, the O-Line really didn't have any.  Beyond Dawkins at LT, everyone else was in and out of the lineup and in different positions throughout the season.  Fortunately we had some depth on the O-Line and we could shuffle people in and out without a catastrophic drop off in play.  Winters was obviously a liability when he came in, but he won't be back.  Maybe the line will play better this year with the same 5 out there for most of the season.

     

    The Chiefs game was bad.  We didn't seem to have any answer for their pass rush.  I'm not sure if it was personnel, or scheme, or both.  Admittedly I don't know how to improve the line so that we don't have a replay of the championship game again, but one thing I do know with certainty is that letting Daryl Williams and Feliciano walk does not make the line better, it will make it worse.  We don't have anyone to replace them in the fold already who would be an upgrade, and no money to go out and buy one in free agency.  

     

    If someone wants to argue that the O-Line gets better without Daryl Williams and Feliciano on it, I'd be interested to hear that argument.  This franchise simply can not afford to go backwards on the O-Line this year.  That means we are going to have to invest some of our scarce resources in it.

     

     

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  16. We spent 20+ years looking for our franchise QB and now that we have found him, do you really want to blow up the O-Line that has protected him well? 

     

    Resign Williams, Feliciano, and Nsekhe.  We still have Bates, Boettger, Morse, and Dawkins in the fold.  Draft the best tackle on the board at #30 and grab a late round center to develop.  If the draftee can beat out Nsekhe, trade or release Nsekhe at the end of camp and he can be the new swing tackle, or if he is really a stud, make Williams expendable.

     

    The last place we need to go dumpster diving as a franchise is on the line that protects Josh Allen.  If we can't protect him it doesn't matter who else we have on this roster.  We are not winning 6 games without Josh Allen in the line up.  If that means Milano and Addison and John Brown and Andre Roberts and Quinton Jefferson and TJ Yeldon have to go, so be it.

     

    We don't need to look like the Bengals with the future of our franchise running for his damn life on every snap of the ball until he eventually ends up on Injured Reserve. We need to prioritize and Josh Allen and his well being has got to be priority #1 for this franchise.

     

     

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  17. 10 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

    12-15 mill per year will be a pipe dream for either player in this market. That said, I agree we cant keep both and I also agree that Williams shd be the higher priority - Smith, Klein, Dodson, an FA and a top 3 round draft pick should fill in adequately for Milano.

     

    I'd respectfully disagree with you on that.

     

    The Bills are up against the cap as are some other teams, but there are 16 teams, half the league, with $25m+ in cap space.   Nine teams have $35m+ in cap space. Several of those teams have young QBs behind terrible O-Lines, others are going to draft a rookie QB this year and they will need protection.  If Williams gets to free agency he will get between $12-$15m a year.  He will be the best free agent RT out there.  The entire NFL just watched the best QB in football lose the Super Bowl because he had no offensive line in front of him.   It just takes two teams to push the price higher. 

     

    How much do you think the Bengals will pay for a top tier RT to keep Joe Burrow on his feet this year and off injured reserve?  The Bengals have $47m+ in cap space.

     

    The Jets are going to draft their franchise QB this year.  They have a horrific O-Line. They have $82m+ in cap space.

     

    The Jags are going to draft Lawrence.  How much is protecting him worth to the Jags?  (That's a rhetorical question)  They have $85mm+ in cap space.

     

    https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/

     

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  18. It looks like the contracts for Milano and Williams are going to be in the same range, around $12-$15mm a year.  The question is who is worth more to the team, Williams or Milano? 

     

    My position is that we need to keep Daryl Williams.  He has played at an elite level all season long protecting our franchise QB.  I dread a return to the days of shoddy O-Line play like we saw in JA17's rookie season.  This team has evolved and we are now winning games on offense, not defense.  We need to maximize the ability of Josh and the offense to score points.  This decision all boils down to the fact that I value strong O-Line play above what Milano brings to the defense.

     

    Even when Milano was healthy our defense struggled this year.  Milano missed six games this last season due to injury. The Bills' record was 3-3 during those games without Milano losing to Tenn, K.C., and Arizona while beating Miami, Seattle, and the Chargers.  Some would argue the Hail Murray was a fluke and we should have gone 4-2 without Milano.  Two of those loses also came when Josh Allen was playing injured.

     

    Williams stayed healthy all season and is now back in his All Pro form and he is only 28 years old.   He should have another 5-6 good years ahead of him.  Nsekhe is also a free agent this season, and while I'm a big Nsekhe fan, he's 35 years old.  I think he would be a great re-sign to continue as our swing tackle for injuries, but I don't think anyone expects him to be able to step in and play a full regular season and a deep playoff run. 

     

    Could we draft another RT?  Sure we could and I expect we will, but I doubt Beane and McDermott want to roll the dice on the draft producing a starting rookie RT to protect Josh Allen.  Similarly, I don't think McBeane wants to count on Cody Ford as their starting RT.  He didn't play well there when he had the chance and is now coming off an injury.  I don't see a free agent RT out there who would be a bargain either.  It looks like Daryl Williams would be a top 3 RT on the market if he does hit free agency.  Trent Williams in San Fran and Taylor Morton Carolina are the other two and both are expected to get resigned and stay where they are.

     

    Losing Daryl Williams creates a bigger hole for the Bills to fill than losing Matt Milano.  In a perfect world we resign both Milano and Williams.  It's more likely though that Beane has to chose just one, and I don't see the sense in giving a huge contract to Josh Allen sometime in the next year while cutting corners on his O-Line at the same time. 

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