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Inigo Montoya

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Posts posted by Inigo Montoya

  1. 1 hour ago, Jauronimo said:

    Cleveland needs to worry about going 0.500 in the AFC North.  Cleveland last finished better than 3rd in the AFC North in 2002.  Cleveland has not won their division since 1989.  

     

    In conclusion, shut up about the Browns. SHUT UP ABOUT THE F@#$ING BROWNS!!!

     

     

    Coming into last season the Bills hadn't won the AFCE since 1995.  That didn't stop them from winning it last year.

     

    The Steelers finished 12-4, the Browns and Ravens both finished 11-5.  While the Brown did finish 3rd last year, that's a bit deceptive taken out of context.  They were one game behind Pittsburgh and had the same record as the Ravens.  They are right there in the AFCN and I think they will win the division this year.

     

    If my thread has caused you some emotional distress Jauronimo,  my sincere apologies, sir.

  2. 59 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

     

    Kudos for putting this together, but you lost me right there with the bolded.

     

    The Chiefs lost starting DE Tanoh Kpassagnon to NO, starting OLB Damien Wilson to Jacksonville, and starting CB Brashad Breeland is still unsigned as a FA.  Defensive end Alex Okafor saw significant playing time (40-50% of the snaps) and is also an unsigned FA at this point.

     

    When they lose or have unsigned 3-4 key defensive contributors who saw a lot of snaps and you come out with "the only free agent they lost of any consequence was Watkins", that begs the question just what do you consider "of any consequence"? 

     

    Now it may be that just like OL, they made sufficient FA or draft moves on D to backfill, or have understudies who looked good and are ready to step in, but at least tell us what those were and why they're just as good. 

     

    And frankly, it wasn't just the KC OL that was a problem for them in the Superbowl.  Their D gave up 145 yds on the ground and gave TB a TOP edge not to mention 3 TD passing.

     

    KC is the team to beat in the AFC until proven otherwise, no argument there.  I don't know as much about the Brownies, but frankly, the significant gaps in your KC analysis make me question how deep and thoughtful your analysis of the Brownies may be.

     

     

     

    Kpassagnon signed a two year contract with the Saints worth $4.5 million.  

     

    Wilson went to the Jags on a one year contract worth $2 million

     

    Okafor played 26% of the snaps last year, not 40-50%, and spent big chunks of 2019 and 2020 on IR.  Maybe Andy is looking for more durability. 

     

    Breeland is still a free agent two months into free agency in a position of high demand.  I think that says something about Breeland.

     

    Respectfully Hap, I don't think any of these players are key loses to the Chiefs and needed to be pointed out in the OP.  If you feel that my omitting these four players from the KC side of the equation undermines my entire position, we will just have to agree to disagree on that one.

     

    🍻

     

     

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  3. Just now, GoBills808 said:

    No. Every third post is saying the difference between Allen and Mayfield is such that the Browns supposed superior roster doesn’t make up the deficit. What’s ridiculous is saying the Browns are a better team and acting confused about pushback.

     

    I expected nothing but pushback on my opinion that I knew would be very unpopular here.  I've been contributing to this forum for years.  I know exactly how any post that says anything critical of the Bills goes over on TBD.  Take two minutes, hit my profile, and read my posts.   I'm as big of a Bills' fan as anyone here, but I also try to be objective about things.

     

    There must be twenty posts on this thread that say as long as we have Allen the Bills are better.

     

    The position you state that the talent on the Browns roster in total is not enough to overcome the difference between Allen and Baker is a reasonable position to hold and is the crux of this entire thread.  I don't agree with that position, but I understand how someone could hold that position.  I explained in the OP why I believe what I believe. 

     

    Now if people want to convince me I'm wrong with a reasoned argument, not simply "my quarterback can beat up your quarterback" or starting in with the crystal ball and lotto numbers BS, please have at it.  

     

     

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  4. 6 minutes ago, chknwing334 said:

    Who is saying “the Browns can NEVER be better than the Bills because they have Josh Allen?”  It’s not like the Bills have a QB and the jets 2020 roster!  With comparable rosters, the Bills will be better than the Browns because of Josh Allen. I don’t think anyone can argue that the Browns roster and depth are that much better than the Bills’ roster, even if you do feel that they have superior talent. 

     

    Who is saying "the Browns can NEVER be better than the Bills because they have Josh Allen?"

     

    Really?

     

    Have you read this thread????

     

    Every third post here is saying it.  

     

    It's a widely held opinion here and it's ridiculous.

  5. 2 minutes ago, Dr.Mantis_Toboggan said:

    Is Josh Allen still > than Baker Mayfield by a wide margin???

     

    Then everything else doesn't matter bc top to bottom the rest of their roster isn't that much better than Buffalo's (if it is, apparently OP is one of those crystal ball guys who can see how draft picks will impact year 1, pretty sure he had Gabriel Davis penciled in for contributing 7 TD catches year 1, right???), and the QB position as pointed out by everybody else is THAT much more important than every other position.

     

    It's pretty cool that OP thinks Cleveland's draft picks will automatically make more of an impact than Beane's decision to address the weakest spot on The Bills... the pass rush... lemme get those lotto numbers when you're done.

     

    Nevermind McDermott > Stefanski by a flipping mile as well.

     

     

     

    Your arguments have convinced me.  The Browns can never be better than the Bills because we have Josh Allen and they have Baker Mayfield.

     

    Nothing else matters.

     

    I'm not even sure why the other 52 guys are on the roster to be honest.

     

    Now please excuse me while I get back to my crystal ball and lotto numbers.

     

    • Eyeroll 3
  6. 9 minutes ago, SCBills said:


    It’s not, but are you asking us to compare Baker Mayfield to Tom Brady?

     

     

    Nope.  I'm saying that it's not just about the QB.  I think we would all agree that Mahomes and Rodgers are better than Brady right now.  I think most of us would agree that Allen is better than Brady.  Having said that, Brady still won the Super Bowl last year because the team that wins the Super Bowl isn't always the team with the best QB.

     

    Saying that the Browns can never be better than the Bills because we have Josh Allen and they have Baker Mayfield is a ridiculous opinion that simply can not be supported.  Football is a team sport.  Is the QB the most important player on the team?  Absolutely.  Is having the best QB the only way to win in this league?   Of course not.

     

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  7. 1 minute ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

    We have Allen.  That's where we stop the conversation 

     

     

    The Packers have Rodgers and lost to a team with a strong running game, strong defense, and a game manager QB in the Championship game.

     

    The Chiefs have Mahomes and lost to a team with a strong running game , strong defense, and a game manager QB in the Super Bowl.

     

    I'm sorry, but it's not just about the QB.  

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  8. Just now, Bermuda Triangle said:

    The Browns barely beat the Bengals last season in their 2nd matchup, after Burrow had a few games under his belt.

     

     

    We barely beat the Colts and the Ravens in the playoffs last year, but we still beat them.  The Browns are more talented top to bottom than the Bengals are (Let's see how Burrow comes back after this injury).  I'm a big Burrow fan and think he can be the real deal and way better than Mayfield but worry he is going to get Darnold-ed by Cincy.  Passing on Sewell to draft a WR is a typical Jets/Cincy kind of move when the Bengals O-line is atrocious.  How putting a solid O-line in front of Burrow wasn't priority #1 , #2, #3 this off season for Cincy is beyond me...

     

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  9. 4 minutes ago, chknwing334 said:

    The Browns have been “the best team on paper” for years now. Putting together a roster of names isn’t that difficult. Putting together a team of winners is. 

     

     

    The Browns went 11-5 last year and made it to the Divisional Round of the playoffs.  Does that qualify as winning?

     

     

    7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

    Outside of defensive line and RBs, how do you come to the conclusion that the Browns roster is superior to ours?

     

    The Bills have a better QB, Allen is elite and can win a game on his own when he has to. The Bills have a better WR corps, and better secondary.  The Brown have a better O-line (the best in football last year), a better D-Line with Miles Garrett, an elite running game with Chubb and Hunt, and a better TE room.  The Browns also have a new head coach who knows what he is doing and has revamped the offense to get the best out of Baker Mayfield who has become a capable game manger on a run first team.  

     

    I don't think there is as much space between these two teams as you think there is.

     

     

    22 minutes ago, ganesh said:

    The one major road block for the Browns is the division they play.  The games in that division are a hell lot more competitive.

     

    Cincinnati isn't close to being in the conversation yet.  The Browns backups beat the Steelers late in the season and as long as the Steelers still have Roethlisberger who has hit the wall and is declining rapidly, the Browns will continue to pull away from Pittsburgh.  The Brown lost both games to the Ravens and that is where the fight is going to be to win the division.  I think the league is starting to catch up with Lamar Jackson though and the Ravens are going to have a tougher time going forward.  I think it likely the Browns split with the Ravens and sweep Pittsburgh and Cincy and go 5-1 in their division next year.

     

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  10. 5 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

    Allen >>>>>> baker it’s not even close and thus the bills are way ahead of the browns and tied with the chiefs 

     

    2 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

    Dude Baker Mayfield ain’t Josh Allen and they aren’t even in the same conversation 

     

    12 minutes ago, Big Gun said:

    The Browns are better because the Bills drafted big uglies, whatever! 

     

    We have Josh Allen they don't!

     

    I could have added some more responses from above as well, but if your only argument is that Josh Allen is better than Baker Mayfield as the reason the Bills are better than the Browns, I think that is flawed reasoning.  It's not just about the QB.

     

    Is Mahomes better than Brady?  I guess the Chiefs must have won the Super Bowl last year then.  The QB is the most important piece of the puzzle, but not the whole puzzle.  Football is still a team sport.  How many Super Bowls does reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers have?  Five...Six?

     

     

    8 minutes ago, Brennan Huff said:

    You’re not allowed to have this opinion here 

     

    I'm as big a homer as anyone on this board and I knew this wouldn't be a popular opinion here.   I stand by it though. 

     

    People are sleeping on the Browns just like people were sleeping on the Bills based on how bad they were for years and years.  The Browns have difference makers at every position.  Baker Mayfied isn't as good a QB as Allen, not even close, but Baker doesn't have to be for the Browns to win.  If Mayfield continues to play ball control offense with that running game and an improved defense, they Browns are legit.

     

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  11. The Chiefs entered the off season after getting man handled in the Super Bowl because their O-line had fallen apart.  They blew up their O-line and decided to rebuild.  On paper at least, they look to have improved the line.  They signed Joe Thuney to a 5 year $80 million contract and he will slide into the left guard position.  They then signed Kyle Long to a one year deal to step into the right guard position.  They resigned Mike Remmers to play right tackle and then traded with the Ravens for Orlando Brown to step in as their left tackle.  They signed Austin Blythe from the Rams to play center, and then drafted the 2nd ranked center, Creed Humphrey, to push Blythe and develop into their future center.  The only free agent they lost of any consequence was Sammy Watkins which should not slow them down much.

     

    I think on the whole the O-line is upgraded and they kept the rest of the band together.  I don't see any reasonable argument to say the Chiefs shouldn't remain the #1 seed in the AFC heading into the 2021 season.

     

    The Browns will leap frog us this season and be the primary threat to the Chiefs.   If you look at the playoffs last year, the Browns came within a fumbled football out of the endzone from beating the Chiefs.  The Bills by comparison didn't even make a game of it against the Chiefs.  The Browns' roster seems to match up better against the Chiefs, and that was before the Browns very impressive off season.

     

    The defense was the weak side of the ball last season and the Browns attacked this off season with that in mind.  They snagged John Johnson the best free agent safety on the market to address a huge weakness and also added CB Troy Hill who will be an instant upgrade.  They brought in Clowney to stack opposite Miles Garrett on the D-line.  They then drafted CB Greg Newsome and LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah who should both start this season.  The Browns bring back their offense intact and Mayfield will have the benefit of playing in the same offense for the first time in his career.  OBJ will also be back this season.

     

    The Bills did a great job of resigning their key free agents this year and also upgraded the backup QB position.  They brought in Sanders to replace Brown which could be an up grade and added Hollister to the TE room.  We all hope that having Star back will have a ripple effect on the D-line and result in better play across the entire line and allow our LB play to improve as well.  The entire team will benefit from another year of coaching and scheme stability and hopefully some of our young players like Oliver and Edmunds will take a step forward this year.

     

     

    Overview   A lot is made of the Bills retaining their own talent, and I agree that Beane did a great job of maintaining a roster that made it to the AFC Championship game, but the uncomfortable truth is that the Chiefs maintained their roster too AND improved their O-Line.   The Browns also avoided any key free agency loses AND improved their defensive secondary and brought in Clowney on the D-line.  The Browns and Chiefs will also benefit from another year of coaching and scheme stability just like the Bills.

     

    The off season isn't over yet, but the free agency period is winding down and the Draft is over.  Baring injuries, any changes to the rosters of the Chiefs, Browns, and Bills before opening weekend will likely just be on the margins before opening weekend.  When Andy Reid looks out across the AFC, I think he is probably more worried about what is going on in Cleveland than what is going on in Buffalo.  I think the Browns have improved enough this off season to move past us and become the primary threat to the Chiefs this year. 

     

    At this point I'd rank the AFC;    1. Chiefs  2. Browns  3. Bills

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  12. The Bills currently have eight defensive ends on the roster;  Hughes, Addison, Mike Love, Brian Cox Jr., AJ Epenesa, Darryl Johnson, Efe Obada, and now Greg Rousseau.  We parted way with Trent Murphy and Quinton Jefferson.

     

    I think we can break these eight down into three groups;

     

    Hughes and Addison -- Veteran Production

    Love and Cox Jr -- Cheap Depth 

    Epenesa, Obada, Johnson, Rousseau --  Lottery Tickets

     

    The interesting group here is the Lottery tickets.

     

    Efe Obada really intrigues me.  He had some great production with limited reps last season and it looks like the arrow is pointing up on him.  He only played 39% of the snaps for the Panthers and had 5.5 sacks, 4 TFL, and 15 QB hits.  Even more than Epenesa, I'm excited to see what he can do this season.

     

    Darryl Johnson is more of the quick twitch / speed edge rusher and he has flashed at times.   He sometimes gets up the field too quickly and loses edge containment and that is an issue that he needs to work on.  He is the fastest DE on the roster for the Bills.  He is also entering "Year Three" and hopefully if things are going to click for him, it will start to happen this year.  He only got 21% of the snaps last season in the Bills' DE rotation.  With Murphy and Jefferson gone he might get a little bit more run this season.

     

    AJ Epenesa was in on 27% of the snaps and had 1 sack and 3 QB hits.  He really started to come on as the season progressed and he began to supplant Trent Murphy in the lineup.  Hopefully a full NFL off season and his hard earned game experience will allow him to take another step this year.  He should join Hughes as the primary edge rushers for the Bills this season.  Hughes played on 59% of the snaps last year and I'd expect Epenesa to be a lot closer to that percentage this year.  Let's hope the production will follow.

     

    Greg Rousseau is the last and probably biggest Lottery Ticket in the group.  I'm not going to make any predictions here.  He's a player with potential who McDermott, Frazier, and Eric Washington think they can develop.  I don't think anyone believes that will happen to a large degree during his rookie campaign.  Any production from him this year would definitely be a bonus.  

     

    I don't expect the Bills will let Hughes walk after this year if he continues to play at his current level.  Even just a one year contract to Hughes gives the other DE's an additional year to find their game and step into Hughes' shoes.  If any of these four Lottery Tickets can find the next level, the Bills will have an imposing pass rush with Oliver up the middle, Hughes on one end, and the winning Lottery Ticket on the other.   McDermott and Frazier are fantastic defensive coaches and I have confidence that they will be able to get the most out of these young DEs. 

     

     

     

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  13. 43 minutes ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

    I think LG or CB2 are the weakest positions on the team. If Teven Jenkins is there I would run to the podium. Landon Dickerson if the injury isn’t a concern. 
     

    Edge would be nice but there aren’t any polished players and it’s already a crowded room this year. More of a future need unless we trade Addison post 6/1 to save 5mil.  I like Ossai in the 2nd, maybe have to trade up for him. He has played LB and edge in college and ran 4.4 40 at pro day. 
     

    For CB2 I’m ok waiting until the 2nd or even 3rd round for a guy with speed that can play man coverage at times to confuse opposing QBs. Take advantage of McDermotts specialty and get a guy with raw talent you can coach up. Ben St Juste or Ambry Thomas could be there in the 3rd


    you don’t think a G/T or G/C prospect could be an upgrade over Cody Ford?


    We honestly don’t know what we have at guard in Ford.  He played mostly tackle his rookie year and finally moved to guard year two, which seems like his natural position, and got hurt.  I’m not ready to say he’s a weak link on the line yet.  There’s no guarantee anyone we draft will be better as a rookie.  Rookie RBs can have monster seasons.  Less likely for a lineman to do that.

     

     

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  14. The only position where a rookie can be expected to make a significant contribution their rookie campaign, and the only position that we could upgrade immediately with a rookie is the RB position.  If we are trying to win now, we grab Harris or Etienne.

     

    If Beane was being truthful about taking a long term, not short term outlook on the draft, we won't use our 1st on a RB.

  15. 22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

    Well folks, draft day is here.... how did come around so fast? It only seems like yesterday it was the first week of January and I started grinding taper on the corner group and the offensive tackles. I have done one of these composite threads the last two years as a way of bringing all my draft stuff together for the benefit of those interested in reading it and as a one stop shop archive that can be referred to when I get things right and wrong.... I am grateful to the mods for indulging me in that but hopefully people find the content interesting.  

     

    Products that are already published on the board are:

     

    2021 'big 5' Quarterback evaluations

    2021 Draft Sleepers

    Gunner's 2021 Mock Draft - My final version 3.0 will be published there later today. 

     

    The "new content" in this thread will be:

    • A full list of my 18 first round grades;
    • An analysis of my top 100 (including comparisons to previous years);
    • My positional top 5s.

     

    [Key:

    * denotes medical concern

    ^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern]

     

    First Round Grades:

    1. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

    2. Patrick Surtain, CB, Alabama

    3. Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

    4. Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

    5. Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

    6. Caleb Farley*, CB, Virginia Tech

    7. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU

    8. Micah Parsons^, LB, Penn St

    9. Jaylen Waddle*, WR, Alabama

    10. Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota St

    11. DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

    12. Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

    13. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

    14. Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

    15. Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT, USC

    16. Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

    17. Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

    18. Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern

     

    I then also have four borderline 1st/2nd grades: 20. Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech; 21. Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama; 22. Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan; 23. Terrace Marshall, WR, LSU

     

    Analysis of Top 100:

    Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:-

     

    Quarterback: 5

    Running Back: 5

    Tight End: 4

    Wide Receiver: 14

    Offensive Tackle: 13

    Interior Offensive Line: 8

    Total offensive players: 49

     

    Interior Defensive Line: 7

    Edge Rusher: 13

    Linebacker: 11

    Corner: 11

    Safety: 9

    Total defensive players: 51

     

    Comparison to other years:

     

    Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100:

    Similar to last year my top 100 is pretty balanced 51:49 in favour of defense, whereas in 2020 it was the other way around. There are essentially three "deep" positions - Offensive Tackle, where it is not only deep but very top heavy talent wise with 11 of the 13 in my top that make the top 100 featuring in my top 60; Wide Receiver, which is less top heavy than last year but where the depth really kicks in around the third round and then pretty much continues throughout the draft - there will be guys drafted in rounds 6 and 7 at receiver that will be successful professionals - as ever the trick is correctly working out which ones; Edge, where there are no stand out elite level edge rushers that are slam dunk first round grade elite prospects but there is a bunch of guys who grade as round 2 or round 3 but will be pushed up the board by positional need - what that might mean at edge is that by the end of day 2, or early in day 3, the cupboard will be pretty bare at the position because the guys who could be intriguing developmental guys with traits are already off the board. I think it is a strong Quarterback class at the top too, and I expect the five names everyone is sick of hearing about all to be picked tonight. However, after that there is not much consensus on the next group and I would not be shocked if we go quite a long way into day 2 (towards the end of the third round) before QB6 comes off the board. Where is the class weak? I'm not a lover of the corner depth. I think after the top 4 guys there is Tyler Campbell and Kelvin Joseph and then a bunch of guys who will be valued highly in one scheme but less so in another, but the weakest spots are tight end (despite having the best Tight End I have ever evaluated at the top of the group), interior defensive line (really poor group), safety (after my top 2 they are ALL scheme specific fits) and, unusually, running back. Overall I think the first round talent in the class is kind of average.... not a vintage year but not a disaster either... but the depth of this draft is lacking. My 100th graded player has an early-mid 4th round grade. There are multiple years where my player 100 has been a full round earlier on my board. That is not surprising given that a lot of guys decided to take their extra year of eligibility and as has been reported there are just fewer guys in this class than some other years. 

     

     

    Positional Top 5s:

    (round I have them graded in parenthesis) 

     

    Quarterback

    1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (1st)

    2. Zach Wilson, BYU (1st)

    3. Trey Lance, North Dakota St (1st)

    4. Justin Fields, Ohio State (1st)

    5. Mac Jones, Alabama (2nd)

     

    Running Back

    1. Travis Etienne, Clemson (2nd)

    2. Najee Harris, Alabama (2nd)

    3. Michael Carter, North Carolina (2nd)

    4. Javonte Williams, North Carolina (2nd/3rd)

    5. Kenneth Gainwell, Memphis (3rd)

     

    Wide Receiver

    1. Ja'Marr Chase, LSU (1st)

    2. Jaylen Waddle*, Alabama (1st)

    3. DeVonta Smith, Alabama (1st)

    4. Terrace Marshall, LSU (1st/2nd)

    5. Dyami Brown, North Carolina (2nd)

     

    Tight End

    1. Kyle Pitts, Florida (1st)

    2. Pat Freiermuth, Penn State (2nd)

    3. Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame (3rd)

    4. Brevin Jordan, Miami (3rd/4th)

    5. Hunter Long, Boston College (4th)

     

    Offensive Tackle

    1. Penei Sewell, Oregon (1st)

    2. Rashawn Slater, Northwestern (1st)

    3. Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC (1st)

    4. Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech (1st/2nd)

    5. Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame (2nd)

     

    Interior Offensive Line

    1. Alex Leatherwood, Alabama (2nd)

    2. Landon Dickerson*, Alabama (2nd)

    3. Wyatt Davis*, Ohio State (2nd)

    4. Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma (2nd/3rd)

    5. Quinn Meinerz, Wisconsin-Whitewater (3rd)

     

    Interior Defensive Line

    1. Christian Barmore, Alabama (1st/2nd)

    2. Daviyon Nixon, Iowa (2nd)

    3. Levi Onwuzurike, Washington (2nd)

    4. Jay Tufele, USC (3rd)

    5. Tyler Shelvin, LSU (3rd)

     

    EDGE

    1. Kwity Paye, Michigan (1st/2nd)

    2. Jaelen Phillips*, Miami (2nd)

    3. Gregory Rousseau, Miami (2nd)

    4. Joseph Ossai, Texas (2nd)

    5. Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma (2nd)

     

    Linebacker

    1. Micah Parsons^, Penn State (1st)

    2. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame (1st)

    3. Zaven Collins, Tulsa (2nd)

    4. Jamin Davis, Kentucky (2nd)

    5. Nick Bolton, Missouri (2nd)

     

    Corner

    1. Patrick Surtain, Alabama (1st)

    2. Caleb Farley*, Virginia Tech (1st)

    3. Jaycee Horn, South Carolina (1st)

    4. Greg Newsome, Northwestern (1st)

    5. Tyler Campbell, Georgia (2nd)

     

    Safety

    1. Trevon Moehrig, TCU (1st)

    2. Jevon Holland, Oregon (2nd)

    3. Richie Grant, UCF (2nd)

    4. Elijah Molden, Washington (3rd)

    5. Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse (3rd)

     

     

    Final thoughts....

    This will be one of the most interesting drafts of recent years. While for Bills fans used to seeing us on the clock early it will be strange to wait until right near the end of the night for Beane and co. to go on the clock there is plenty of intrigue in the first round ahead of us around where Quarterbacks go and how much teams are willing to give up to target specific guys at corner, offensive tackle and/or receiver.  However, days 2 and 3 promise to be even more fascinating because I suspect once you get past the first 50 or so guys in this class there is going to be very wide divergence on players and that could lead to a lot of small trades up and down and up again on Friday evening as teams try to match scheme and need with value. I'll be fascinated to see if teams are willing to give up day 3 picks to get more shots on day 2 given the relative lack of depth at the back end of the class and I will also be interested to see how many teams moving down in trades are demanding picks in 2022 as part of the compensation, expecting a more "normal" evaluating season in 2021 and a deeper class to select from in 2022. I am not a big future scouter - finding time to watch circa 150 players in this class is tough enough, but those that are tell me the story on 2022 is weak at Quarterback but really strong elsewhere. So that could well be attractive to teams thinking about trading back tonight and tomorrow. 

     

    So keep an eye out for the final version of my mock later today, and enjoy the draft tonight. I will be doing my usual day by day debriefs as we go along this weekend. Just a few more hours to wait!!

     

     

    Thanks for all your work on this stuff, I'm not a college football fan so I appreciate all the info.  Are you going to stay up tonight to watch live, or just catch up in the morning?

  16. Beane's 2018 draft was all about dealing for a QB.  In 2019 there were just three or four players (Oliver, TJ Hockenson, Josh Allen, Devin Bush) who were real options for the Bills at #9.  In 2020 we didn't even have a 1st round pick.  This draft is going to be a wild ride with so many possibilities.  This is going to be Beane's toughest draft so far.

     

    It's an unusual position to be in for the Bills' front office and fans.  We're drafting at #30 this year and there are typically less than 30 players with a "1st round grade" on them in any given NFL draft.   Practically speaking, this means that Brandon Beane is sitting in a position where he may end up using a 1st round draft pick on a player who has a 2nd round grade on their draft board.

     

    There is a lot of talk about drafting a RB, even trading up to do so.  The question is, do the Bills have a 1st round grade on either Etienne or Harris?  If so, that could influence Beane into making a move up to grab one of them if standing pat will result in drafting a player with a 2nd round grade at #30.  Conversely, if everyone with a 1st round grade is already gone by the time the Bills are on the clock, the best course of action might be to try and trade back if doing so would still get you a player with a 2nd round grade and more draft capital.

     

    I've linked to some rankings that don't just rank players #1 - #200, but identifies those players with a "1st round grade".  They range from one set of rankings giving only twelve players a 1st round grade in this years draft to another analyst who assigned twenty-eight 1st round grades.  Some of the rankings below have Etienne and Harris with a 1st round grade, while others don't give one or either of them a 1st round grade.

     

     ********************

     

    "I've given out 25 first-round grades for the 2021 NFL Draft; so if you're picking 29th overall and all of these players are gone, my endorsement would be to try to trade back into the early portions of the next round and try again so you can find "appropriate value."

    https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/first-round-grades-2021-nfl-draft-kyle-crabbs

     

    The author of these rankings has only 12 players with clear "First Round Grades - Tier 1", and has players ranked 13-27 placed in a second category called "Fringe First- Early Second - Tier Two"

    https://www.stampedeblue.com/2021/4/26/22402560/zach-hicks-final-2021-nfl-draft-top-200-big-board

     

    "Yes, there are fewer than 32 first-round grades. That’s typical, especially within the league. Just because there are 32 first-round picks every year doesn’t mean there are 32 prospects worthy of first-round selection."   (Spoiler...there are 23 players with 1st round grades)

    https://draftwire.usatoday.com/lists/2021-nfl-draft-rankings-big-board-top-300-prospects/

     

    "My final 2021 NFL Draft board presently breaks down as follows: 26 players with solid first-round grades..."

    https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-draft-prospects-2021-updated-big-board-player-rankings/

     

     

     

     

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  17. Another solid off season move by Beane that is without the bells and whistles the national media will notice or comment upon, but is the kind of move that makes a franchise successful over time.  

     

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  18. Draft Night Confessions

     by Inigo Montoya

     

    1.   I liked Josh Allen, but just because he looked like a QB from central casting, not because of any in-depth film study or football reason.

     

    2.  I was happy we didn't draft the other Josh because I though he seemed like a jerk and would be hard to cheer for, not because of any in-depth film study or football reason.

     

    3.  I had no earthly idea that Josh Allen was a running QB.

     

    4.  I had no idea who Tremaine Edmunds was when we drafted him.

     

    5.  There is a reason I'm not an NFL general manager.

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  19. The Patriots draft Mac Jones, QB, Alabama.

     

    Sports commentators commence a ball washing of epic, even Biblical proportions, of Bill Belichick who has "outsmarted the entire NFL again!"

     

    Patriots now favored to win the AFCE by the talking heads on ESPN.

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  20. 42 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

    Are you saving up for Las Vegas in 2022?

     

    Unfortunately I'm not.  I live in Kentucky and try to go to at least one Bills game a year with my family if they are playing somewhere close.  We've been lucky that the Bills have been in Nashville three seasons in a row counting this upcoming season.  Nashville is such a great city and the people in Nashville are friendly and its a great away game destination.   If I'm going to pony up for a Vegas trip I'd rather go there for a game.  I think it will be another 7 years until the Bills play there again though...

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  21. 4 minutes ago, scuba guy said:

    So isn't the colts o line that ranked 3rd by pff the same o line that blocked for a qb that quit the league, due to all the injuries lock has suffered over the years. And the same qb said the owner did not spend enough on the oline.

     

    Just asking for a friend 

     

    Hey Scuba guy,

     

    Tell your friend that, yes in fact, it is the same Indianapolis O-line that was bad for years but turned it around in 2018.  The Colts finally began to invest in the O-Line in 2018 after Luck got pounded for years and lost all of 2017 to a lingering shoulder injury.   In fact, when Luck came back and played in 2018, the Colts O-line gave up an NFL fewest sacks that season (18).  The Colts finished 10-6, made it to the Divisional round of the playoffs, and Luck threw for over 4,500 yards with 39 tds and only 15 INTs.   Luck and the O-line had a great year in 2018, hence the surprise when he retired at the end of the season. 

     

    To quote PFF from 2018;

     

    "We knew they’d be better, but I don’t think even the biggest Colts homer could have foreseen this coming. Drafting the highest-graded rookie guard though and the second-highest-graded rookie tackle will do that. Everyone and their mother predicted Quenton Nelson would be a stud, and he was as a second-team PFF All-Pro, but Braden Smith going from college guard to pro tackle was a wildcard. Fortunately, that card came up aces as Smith was PFF’s 25th-highest graded tackle on the season."

     

    🍻

     

     

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  22. 1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

    Leaving some critical data out in this analysis:

     

    In 2018, Buffalo spent 11.38M to rank 30th in the NFL.  OL represented 6.03% of team cap dollars

    That increased to 29.05M spent vaulting them to 12th and 14.5% of their cap.

    In 2020, Bills OL spending increased to 36.25M to rank 3rd and was 16.4% of cap. 

     

    Sure, some players like Dawkins who are homegrown received contract extensions and they should be credited for that.  But much of the rest of that OL is higher paid UFAs, which should provide better quality of play.  In 2020, I don't see them as having gotten their money's worth from the OL to spend what they did.

     

    All fair points BillsVet.  

     

    I agree that Beane identified the O-line as a big problem on this team and devoted a fair amount of resources to it, but I think it was a smart move to do so.  Look at Darnold and look at Allen.  I'm not going to state that O-line play is the main reason they went in opposite directions over the first three years of their careers, but I think O-line play certainly played a significant part.

     

    I think Beane would prefer to build this team through the draft, but in this instance, he really had no choice but to build the line in free agency.  He didn't have multiple drafts to stock the O-line with talent and depth, and he didn't have the luxury of time while Josh Allen was trying to develop his game to wait on multiple drafts.

     

    I think we will see some draft capital spent next week on a center who will hopefully step into Morse's shoes after this season.  If Ford, Boettger, Bates, and Lamp continue to develop we will see your vision of a young affordable O-line in front of Allen. Dawkins and Williams are locked in on reasonable tackle contracts.  The interior of the line should get better and hopefully less expensive going forward.  

     

    Beane simply didn't have any choice but to build the roster the way he did and the results was a 13 win season and a trip to the AFC Championship game.  I'm hard pressed to find fault with Beane's strategy.

     

    🍻

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