Inigo Montoya
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Posts posted by Inigo Montoya
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Just now, PromoTheRobot said:
YAC is just a number. 10 yards is 10 yards whether you run the ball 10, throw it one yard and run 9, or throw it 10.
No argument from me on that point. Like I said in the OP, I don't care how the Bills offense scores points as long as they keep winning. If it's possible to take some of the burden off of Josh where he doesn't have to rocket the ball all over the field and get him some easy completions that move the sticks instead, I think that would be a good thing.
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6 minutes ago, Process said:
How are the Giants this year in YAC? Curious bc of Daboll. There offense is also made up of a bunch of practice squad players so not sure we can take much from that .
Giants are ranked 19th.
http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=231
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1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:
Sorry Inigo I should’ve been more specific I don’t mean you specifically in this post to have just been hearing a lot of that this year overall
Gabe has not taken the step that the front office thought that he was going to this year but he has all the tools and I really hope that they don’t give up on him
I agree with you. I expected a lot more out of him following the KC game to end the season. I'm not sure what it going on. All reports say Gabe is an incredibly hard worker. Not sure if he is still injured, DBs have caught up with his game, or just a bit of a slump?
I hope we get playoff Gabe back soon, we're going to need him to win a championship.
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1 minute ago, PromoTheRobot said:
This whole YAC thing is dumb. Who cares about YAC when you have a QB who can throw a ball 15-20 yards or more every play? If you're noodle arm Mac Jones then YAC starts to matter. Not if your Josh Allen.
I agree with you that Allen covers up a lot of deficiencies on this offense like the shaky run game, poor YAC, and hit and miss O-Line play.
The point is that if poor YAC is a scheme issue then we are depriving this offense of some easy yards by not adjusting the scheme to address it. I think Josh has more on his plate than any other QB in the league. Anything Dorsey can do to lighten that load is a good thing. The question comes back to, is it a scheme issue, the QB, or the pass catchers? If it's a combo of issues, which it likely is, is there something they can do to fix it?
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8 minutes ago, BillsBy50 said:
It’s all about the screen game, Mahomes is checking down big YAC plays to McKinnon almost every drive. Misleading stat yawn
McKinnon is ranked 5th in YAC. I'm not sure what's misleading about the stat. If anything it points to Allen being much more responsible for the Bills' passing game success than Mahomes is for the Chiefs. Mahomes has two of the top five YAC pass catchers in the league. Josh doesn't have that luxury.
It's just one more ingredient to throw into the MVP discussion soup.
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It's crazy to me that the Bills pass catchers continue to rank so low on yards after catch. It clearly isn't slowing the 12-3 offense down too much, I'm just not sure how to explain it. We have an elite QB and solid receivers. The Bills' offense struggled with YAC last season and I remember Josh said it was a point of emphasis for him this last off-season when he was working with Jordan Palmer, working on ball placement to allow his pass catchers to increase their YAC.
To provide some context, the Chiefs are 1st in YAC, the Bills are 24th. Austin Ekeler is 1st in YAC, Kelce is 2nd, Jefferson is 3rd. Hill and Waddle are 7th and 8t. Diggs is 23rd, Singletary is 60th, Knox is 99th, and Gabe Davis is 133rd in YAC. Is it just the style of the offense we've been running, the types of routes being run, or how Josh is getting the ball in there? Do the Bills have more sideline / out cutting routes than is typical? Has anyone noticed some tendencies of the Bills' offense that can explain it? For whatever reason, improved YAC hasn't happened this year.
The offense is still getting the job done and this isn't a post to be critical of the Bills offense. As long as Josh and Co. keep stacking wins I don't care how they do it. It's more of a technical question about how the Bills 7th ranked passing offense can also be 24th in YAC? It seems a bit of an anomaly.
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One thing has come into play since I made the OP, Tua's new concussion will muddy the waters further for the Dolphins going forward. Even if they believe Tua is a solid enough QB to give a second contract to, now his durability is a major concern. He had durability concerns coming out of college and now he's been stacking concussions.
Any second QB contract at market value will have greater than $100mm in guaranteed money on the line. The top ten active QB contracts in the NFL right now all have over $100 mm guaranteed. That may be a tough pill to swallow for the Dolphins.
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1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:
Gabe Davis has one down here and all of a sudden he’s a bum fans are so fickle
I don't think Gabe is a bum.
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The Bills' 2020 Draft Class;
2nd DE A.J. Epenesa
3rd RB Zack Moss
4th WR Gabriel Davis
5th QB Jake Fromm
6th K Tyler Bass
6th WR Isaiah Hodgins
7th CB Dane Jackson
UDFA TE/FB Reggie Gilliam
Buffalo is generally acknowledged as being the toughest kicking venue in the NFL. Despite that, Bass has been rock solid for the Bills since his arrival in Buffalo. If memory serves, the first couple games of his rookie season he was shaky, but then he seemed to find his groove and has been hammering it ever since. He should have been a Pro Bowl selection this year. Here are his stats for this year;
Field Goal % 87.1
20-29 yards 4/4
30-39 yards 11/13
40-49 yards 10/11
50-59 yards 2-3
Extra points 43/45
We've seen the conditions the Bills have played in this season. These numbers are incredible. Having an elite kicker on the roster who you trust with the game on the line, kicking in December and January in Orchard Park, is an enormous advantage for the Bills. He is mentally tough and has a booming leg. The value of having a great kicker, especially in Buffalo, can't be overstated.
I think Bass is clearly the best pick of the 2020 draft class for Beane and the Bills.
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15 minutes ago, MJS said:
I think it is less so that Tua has been figured out and more so that he is playing better teams now. He has played better this season, but the stretches of games where he played the best were all against bad teams. Now that he is playing better teams, he looks a lot worse.
He is just another decent QB who needs to significantly develop to be considered a franchise QB, which is an uphill battle for him because he doesn't have elite physical traits to fall back on.
I think playing better defense is a factor, but I also think defenses are starting to treat Tua like Lamar, they are flooding the middle of the field and forcing him outside the hashmarks knowing he struggles with those throws.
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Dolphins;
Cap Space; Negative $6.7 mm (26th in the NFL)
Draft Capital; No 1st or 4th rounder. One pick in each of the other rounds. Projected draft position 18-22 range.
The Dolphins amassed a war chest of cap space and draft picks over the last couple of season but all of that is gone now. They should have two 1st rounders this year but lost a 1st rounder for tampering with Brady and then traded away their other 1st rounder for Bradley Chubb. The issue with the Dolphins starts and stops with Tua. He played well in the beginning of the season but it looks like defenses have caught up with his game and now he's struggling. Despite the best 1/2 WR tandem in the NFL, Tua is not getting the job done. The Phins have solid pieces on their roster but they're learning the hard way that without a legit QB it is hard to win a championship. With a big question mark at QB and no draft capital to draft or trade for one, they might be forced to go into the free agent market and overpay for a Garoppolo, Minshew, Brady, or Rodgers. My guess is they ultimately give Tua one more year to straighten things out and if he can't they'll have a 1st rounder in 2024 and can jump back into the QB draft sweepstakes. The Dolphins are not a bad team and they play the Bills hard, but I think they have a ceiling below the Bills with Tua under center.
Jets;
Cap Space; $15.9 mm (15th in the NFL)
Draft Capital; They have all of their picks except a 5th rounder, and have five 6th rounders. Should be drafting in the 15-18 range.
Like the Dolphins, the Jets had a mountain of draft capital and cap space over the last couple of seasons and Joe Douglas has spent it building a solid roster adding talent on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately for Joe Douglas, he also drafted Zach Wilson. This is reportedly not a great QB draft, and the Jets could roll the dice with another 1st round QB again or jump into the Garoppolo, Minshew, Rodgers, Brady sweepstakes. I think a game managing Garoppolo would be a good fit there. Their defense is legit and they have quality skill position players and will get Breece Hall back next season. They just need a QB. Let's hope they don't find one.
Patriots;
Cap Space; $54 mm (4th in the NFL)
Draft Capital; They have all of their picks and an extra 3rd/4th rounder, and three 6th rounders. Should be drafting in the 15-18 range.
Their roster is devoid of any significant talent. Belichick has eliminated any chance Mac had to develop this season with his bizarre 'no offensive coordinator" move. That team is more than a single draft and free agency away from relevance. I know players will follow the money to a point, but I don't think a lot of free agents want to go to New England anymore. I wouldn't be surprised to see Robert Kraft clean house this off season and turn the franchise keys over to some fresh blood. The status quo with Belichick going forward means more .500 season in Foxborough. I think as long as Bill is calling the shots there they are going to continue to struggle. From best coach in the league to anchor in three short years. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy or franchise. The Pats are at least two seasons away from giving the Bills any trouble.
Bills;
Cap Space; Negative $3.5 mm (25th in the NFL)
Draft Capital; The Bills have their 1st-6th round selections, and an extra 6th. They traded their 7th for Dean Marlowe. They will have the last pick of the 1st round 🙂
We all know where the Bills are as a franchise, no need to summarize.
In short, none of our AFCE competitors have a franchise QB, and not much of a chance to get one outside of the free agent market. An aging Brady and Rodgers in the division doesn't scare me like it used to. I don't think they have much left in the tank. Minshew has moxy but isn't a franchise QB. Garoppolo is a game manager who could work for the Jets or Dolphins but wouldn't move the dial much in New England. If Josh stays healthy I think we have at least 1-2 more seasons where the Bills are the class of the division. It's hard to win in this league without a franchise QB. It can be done, the 49ers come to mind, but it's definitely the exception and not the rule.
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Record
Hurts; 13-1
Allen; 11-3
Mahomes; 11-3
Passing
Hurts; 3,472 yds 22 TDs 5 INTs 67.3 Comp %
Allen; 3,875 yds 30 TDs 11 INTs 63.7 Comp %
Mahomes; 4,496 yds 35 TDs 11 INTs 67.4 Comp %
Rushing
Hurts; 747 yds 13 TDs 0 Fum Lost
Allen; 705 yds 6 TDs 2 Fum Lost
Mahomes; 313 yds 3 TDs 0 Fum Lost
Total Yards & TDs
Hurts; 4,219 yds 35 TDs
Allen; 4,580 yds 36 TDs
Mahomes 4,809 yds 38 TDs
QBR
Hurts; 68.7
Allen; 71.7
Mahomes; 79.8
Passer Rating
Hurts; 104.6
Allen; 97.3
Mahomes; 105.0
Those are the pertinent stats through Week 15. Hurts is injured and may miss this week's big game vs Dallas. The injury might affect his play for a couple weeks (like Allen with his elbow) which could impact his standing. Josh has a marquee MNF matchup against Burrow in Week 17 that could help or hurt him. Mahomes doesn't have a big game left in the regular season.
The Associated Press determines who wins the NFL MVP. The AP selection group is comprised of 50 sports writers and broadcasters. The AP is changing the system for selecting the MVP this year to a ranked voting system;
Strength of schedule, overall team record, individual stats, quality wins, supporting cast, the QB's personal narrative, and some behind the scene politics from NFL marketing always comes into play with the selections.
Watching the national sports media, there seems to be a big push by many for Hurts to win MVP. There are a lot of media types who think Mahomes is still the best QB in football, and as the MVP has really become a de facto Top QB award, that should help him. Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be much of a constituency in the national media for our guy. Barring Allen setting things on fire for the rest of the season (and another bad weather game in Chicago doesn't help) Josh is likely coming in 3rd this year.
When it's all said and done, I suspect Josh would rather win one Lombardi than ten MVPs.
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The Jakobi Jabroni
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14 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:
"Prostate cancer will be the cause of death of 1 in 41 men in the United States of America. Harrison Phillips, Matt Ryan and the NFL are proud to partner with the American Cancer Society to raise awareness and encourage all men to have regular prostate exams. Remember, it's never the wrong time to have your prostate examined."
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Wow! That sucks! The Eagles probably have the most complete roster in the NFL, let's see how much that can help carry them along for the rest of the season. Gotta think that takes the steam out of a Super Bowl run though.
Don't wish that bad injury juju on any team.
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4 hours ago, The Wiz said:
I laughed and laughed when I watched that ridiculous ending to the Pats game just because it was so incredibly Billsy and I knew heads were exploding all over New England. There is no fanbase in the NFL more deserving of Billsy things than the Pats fanbase!
How many rants did I uncork in my living room watching the Drought Era Bills ***** defeat from the jaws of victory for two decades? Now it's their turn and it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of jabronies.
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[EDIT; Apparently the word snat*h can not be used in a sentence no matter the context on this message board! 😆]
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McDaniel is my least favorite coach in the NFL right now, even more so than the Hoodie because of the Tua fiasco. To see McDaniel get up in front of the cameras and pontificate that he would have never sent Tua back out onto the field if he was injured and say it all with a straight face was too much for me. "That's not what I'm about", he finished with. Apparently he and the medical team in Miami were the only ones who didn't know Tua was concussed.
McDaniel put Tua back out there to win a game to protect his career and then went out in front of the media and lied about it to protect his pocket book.
What a jerk.
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I don’t like Sullivan. He tries to ask gotcha question of the players and make himself the story. It got old for me a long time ago.
I also don’t think what he said was a firing offense. People who are piling on and cheering his firing better remember that it might someday be them at the end of the mob’s pitchfork because of something they say.
I think people should be able to acknowledge that someone said something stupid without demanding their destruction.
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The going rate for an NFL QB is a little bit more than the last NFL QB to get a deal done. I don't think that changes.
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9 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
And word from Sal and the WGR guys is Allen had been pushing for Brown and Bease to be re-signed, and after Sunday pretty much demanded it, and McBeane couldnt argue anymore.
This is the last step in Josh becoming a leader.
Step one is you need to come in as a young QB and be humble and show the vets on the roster that you belong and are a team first guy, not a primadonna 1st round draft pick, ala Josh Rosen.
Step two is to elevate your game and work harder than anyone else in the room and set an example of excellence so you have the moral authority to lead.
The last step of being a great leader is that once you have demonstrated your own excellence, to start demanding excellence from the people who follow you.
That's where Josh is now in that locker room. By having Beane bring in Brown and Beasley he is telling the guys on offense, and specifically in the WR room, that they need to elevate their performance or they are gone. Josh is friends with all of them I'm sure, but he is not going to let those relationships limit the ability of the team to win. That willingness to separate yourself from the group, your friends, and demand accountability from them is the hardest step for a leader and Josh is there.
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7 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:
I can't believe to be honest with way Beasley acted aka hating on Buffalo fans and him seemingly be a distraction for his Covid stance etc. Yet if he can contribute on the field I don't mind having him back.
Imagine a guy getting upset with that group of "fans" who repeatedly denounced him as being ignorant, a cancer, and a murderer for not taking a vaccine that he had concerns about.
Go figure?
His problem was feeling the need to post his every waking thought on social media. I hope he can lay off that stuff going forward.
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5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
We will see. I don't think he made a mistake. Cole was great for us, but his legs died halfway through last year.
They would essentially be signing him to play a 6 or 7 game season (if they make it all the way to the Super Bowl). His old legs might hold up that long, that's less than half a season.
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2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:
That they'd be better served with someone who actually can contribute. Hell I think Tavon Austin has more left in the tank.
You may be right. There's only one way to find out.
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2 minutes ago, TH3 said:
Based on the fact 32 teams looked and have not signed him?
That's one possible explanation. Another possible explanation is that Beasley didn't want to sign with anyone else.
I have no idea what is wrong with bringing him in and kicking the tires. Unless people are still having a melt down over all the vax stuff and just can't let it go, I can't think of one thing the Bills lose by bringing Beasley in and seeing if he can still contribute.
Not one single thing.
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Breakdown of Bills long runs vs Bears
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Nice find OP, thanks for sharing.
The run game certainly came alive last week. I hope it was something the Bills were doing better and not something the Bears were doing badly.