Richard Noggin

Offense, when played at a high level (which we've seen a lot around here in recent years), can control a football game. It can dictate the game script, the scoreboard, field position, etc., which then disrupts the opponent's gameplan. Defense, for sure, can control a game as well, but it doesn't typically do so by racking up points and skewing an opponent's available options due to the math of possessions remaining and points needed. It's like holding serve in tennis: the server ostensibly has an advantage over the returner (albeit less reliably than 10 and 20 years ago--which is inverted from the NFL where defenses (returners) have become much LESS dominant). So once you get ahead of your opponent, the main goal is holding serve. Translation: keep scoring. Keep dictating. Control what you can control, and you should win. There will always be exceptions to this thinking. And there will continue to be evolutions and YoY trends. But hypothetically, a great offense can just outscore the other team's offense, and help its own defense to stop an increasingly one-dimensional opponent. When you have Josh Allen, it shouldn't come down to defensive stops unless you're playing another elite team. The Bills offense failed to hold serve last week.

I'm speaking specifically about this last game, mind you. That left shoulder is really whipping open early when he looks to drive the ball. That pass 37 feet over Gabe Davis' head (that Davis somehow actually could have caught) is just one example. There were at least 3 or 4 others that really took away potential TDs.

Are Allen's mechanics being mentioned much? I can't work through 18 pages right now, unfortunately. I saw his front shoulder flying open on so many throws; many of which sailed. He has a general tendency to throw from an open stance, especially when running the hurry-up and spread. But that's different than what seemed to inform most of his throws that were high and hot. A breakdown in fundamentals. You see it with pitchers all the time. Which Bills QB was it who talked about focusing on "taking a bite out of the hamburger" (in his left hand)? You know, keeping that left shoulder closed as long as possible, and keeping that left hand up around the face. Was it a younger Allen? Or someone from the drought? Potentially over-rotating/over-throwing to overcompensate for an ailing shoulder?

Is there a highlight reel for how he's doing when initial contact occurs behind the LOS? Or when the OL just kind of gets stacked up at the LOS? You know, just so I can imagine him HERE.

Why would you NOT share that with an interested crowd of fellow fans?

I'm seeing lots of Bills fans heading for the exits.

Hadn't seen that specifically noted yet. Encouraging report.

While I believe Josh Allen sees the field better out of more spread-out alignments, I worry that Kincaid as the TE in 11-personnel looks makes the Bills offense effectively one-dimensional (no reason for defenses to bring in a 3rd (or maybe even a 2nd) LB). Might as well motion Kincaid and Diggs on nearly every play and just go full Daboll at this point. Spread em out, get em to declare, and attack em through the air (or with Allen on the ground). Cook should also be top-3 in targets every week. If we're gonna go for it.

That's the thing. The year the Bills "should" have won it all, they lost their SIXTH (6th) game by week 13/14. Last 3 out of 4. Tapping out as a fan is weird. It's such an emotional response. So vulnerable and reactive. Makes it a bit childlike. No offense.

Lots of excuses/explanations in this thread so far. And most of them valid in a vacuum. Strains credulity as they stack up, though innit? One thing working in our favor, is that the year everyone feels the Bills should have won the whole thing, 2021, they were at one point 7-4, coming off a THUMPING at home to the Colts. They were then 7-5, after losing to the Patriots. They were then even 7-6, after losing to the Bucs in overtime. The first half of that Bucs game felt BAD. Like the Bills had been exposed as a bad team. Like they weren't going to win many more games at all. And then, even in a heartbreaking overtime loss, there was sudden hope. There was that signature turnaound. McD's teams have shown at least one multiple-game swoon in almost every season, to my recollection. We can't rule out such growth this season. Can't rule it out really ANY season with Allen as our QB (and Diggs as his #1 target). History teaches us as much.

Love the Ben Johnson part of the OP most of all. Highly doubt Pegula will step between Beane and McD, especially as soon as this offseason (barring a losing season).

But defensive performance is less consistent YoY anyways. And promising DCs are much less likely to be hired as HCs these days. If you have a good one, promote him to assistant head coach so ONLY an HC opening is a vertical move. Pay him well, invest in his assistants, and let him build a culture on that side of the ball. Just stay consistent with 4-3 vs 3-4 when a change is inevitably made. QB and OC are just so much more important than everything else.

Agree 100% that the lack of Daboll is a huge part of Allen's on-field issues. Disagree a bit with your assertion that "Daboll let him play like he (Allen) wanted." While Dabes did call QB runs and fun trick plays and 16-straight shotgun passes and all that (you know, stuff you call when your QB is a physical freak who likes to be aggressive), he did also absolutely LAY into Allen on the sideline, on TV, more than once. Imagine the Monday film review sessions. Allen was coached hard under Daboll. And he was also unleashed. That's the secret sauce with Josh Allen, perhaps. I'll bet Daboll was able to keep McDermott off Allen for the most part. Insulate him a bit from that defensive (which becomes tentative) mindset.

I'm not 100% opposed to giving Ben Johnson the keys to this offense/organization, should the Bills desire to move on from McDermott (they probably won't). If it gets even bleaker.

I'd be interested in seeing those stats. I don't wish to carry with me a false conclusion about Edmunds' play, which I found to be average, at best, over the course of his career in Buffalo. The lack of impact plays is the most oft-cited and legitimately stat-based criticism. I've heard others suggest his height and wingspan deterred passes into his zones, but is that quantifiable?

They often do that by looking at DEFENDERS (safeties usually) they want to manipulate/freeze, rather than looking at a different target.

But DID he really? That's the narrative, but it isn't supported by anything other than repetition. Can it be quantified at all?

Yeah, according to that tweet he's "mauling (sic) over his future" --which sounds like complete conjecture without any cited sources. Just some tweet from a UB Bulls/Buffalo Bills fan/update account. It's entirely possible that a former 5-star RB recruited by Alabama, then drafted to the NFL in the 3rd round, who played out his rookie deal and came in on a vet minimum, 1-year prove-it deal, now a 5th year depth guy suddenly recovering from an initially scary neck sprain/stinger, might be battling some existential demons. It's also very likely that this talented player with pedigree and starting experience (but has some documented availability issues) wants another chance, somewhere, to be the guy (and to be paid like the guy). Let's hope he's completely healthy soon, and gets to make a clear-headed decision about how to proceed with his NFL career. Short of a late-season and playoff explosion, he's gonna need to sign another prove-it deal and fight for opportunity in 2024.

Lol I've stood next to him on many occasions. It's not who he is or what he's capable of. Which is okay.

Was hoping this was a poll. Remember when the team was 7-6 and REELING, but then in most fans' opinions, in the playoffs that same season, SHOULD have defeated the Chiefs and then the Bengals and then the Rams to win a 'ship? No awards that matter for being #1 wire-to-wire. Gotta get into the tournament. That's what the regular season is for.

It was talked about a LOT going into last season that Dorsey operated almost exclusively out of 12 personnel in college (with those TEs, who wouldn't?), and also the Carolina offense he came from had used that package extensively. This was widely projected to be an increased emphasis last year, if they'd had the players to run it. Now they (presumably) do. I use the term a lot myself, and must admit this is a good point (delivered with arrogance, because the internet).

Eh? Big Baller Beane is a solid GM, an excellent communicator, and all around likeable dude. But he is NOT someone who intimidates or kicks anyone's ass (physically).

**Beer break** Drank a lot of Labatt in my WNY teen years, and often associated it with Bills football. I remember Labatt Ice being like effing moonshine in high school. Back when the Canadians were battling to sell the highest ABV beers possible at the time. Molson Ice? XXX? But I left the region after high school, and didn't move back until I was into my 30s (visited a bunch, of course). When I returned, I started to realize that Labatt beer is kinda shite. Blue Light, especially. Full flavor Labatt is OKAY in a pinch. Maybe it's just that light beer, and mass-produced North American lagers in general, are dreadful unless one intends to drink for many hours at a time. If I'm looking for a "sessionable" cookout/campfire/gameday beer, I'd rather Busch Light tbh. Or the High Life. Or [insert myriad better beers than Labatt]. Many of the best U.S. beers now are coming from Brooklyn, of all places. (Nostalgic sidebar: In college, a 12-pack of Milwaukee's Best Ice cans, The Beast (Ice), cost $3.99. Like 6% ABV. That's 18 "normal" beers. **taps temple smugly**...and worth noting i don't even drink beer these days unless I'm watching sports or watching a fire.)

Now do his career, not just the last 5 games. No surprise we'd see a little jump in his contract year.

I'd say catch percentage is a pretty good measure of reliability/efficiency, which is pretty damned important for whomever gets the 2nd most targets on a given offense. While Davis has ridiculously high YPC numbers over his career, he also has ridiculously LOW catch% numbers, meaning he's a dangerous deep threat but definitely not a go-to guy. Targeting Davis is nearly a 50/50 proposition, which is unacceptably inefficient. Diggs caught 10 of 16 targets today, for example, which was actually really BAD for him (but still over 60%). He's usually MUCH more efficient.