SoTier

I would argue that it wasn't really Nix or Whaley's decision to draft a QB, just the decision which QB from a poor lot. In the 2013 off season, Ralph Wilson died about a month before the draft but he'd been in a final decline throughout 2012 and the fate of the franchise in Buffalo was in question. Russ Brandon was in charge, and he was yet again dedicated to keeping butts in the seats despite the uncertainty ... and there is nothing like a first round QB to fire up a fanbase like drafting a first round QB.

It's entirely within the realm of possibility that that could happen. It might not necessarily be reflected in his stats -- or even in the Bills record -- if the Bills' potential offensive improvement on the OL, running game, and receiving corps materializes but Allen has to improve his passing and his decision making regardless of whether or not his supporting cast is good or not. The quality of play that's acceptable, even encouraging, in a rookie shouldn't still be the norm for a QB at the end of his second season as the starting QB. If Allen isn't significantly better as a QB in December than he was in September -- even if his September was better than his rookie December -- that will be real cause for concern. NFL QBs tend to get better as they gain experience, but at some point, they hit a proverbial wall that defines the upwards limits of their ability. "Busts" hit that wall early on, but most QBs get at least somewhat better in their second and third years as starters, The better the QB, the longer they take to reach that limit. QBs like P Manning, Brady, and Brees seem to never hit that wall. I certainly hope you are wrong, VW82, because if you're right, then Allen will be another first round QB bust. In order to be a genuine franchise QB, one who is elite or close to it, a QB has to absolutely possess "hardwired football instincts" that enable him to almost instantly recognize and process what he sees into action -- appropriate action (ie, a good choice). The closer to the ideal Allen can come, the better QB he will be. If he can't recognize and process what he sees on the field fast enough, he's just a Trent Edwards, an EJ Manuel or a Tyrod Taylor.

I want to see Allen make significant improvement in his mechanics and in his decision making. I want to see that improvement continue throughout the season so that he's a significantly better passer at the end of the season than he started out. I want to see him make more clutch passing plays in the Red Zone. I want to see him run less but more judiciously (and therefore, more effectively). I think if he can do that, his completion percentage will be 60 or better and his TD ratio in the 2/1 range. The hard numbers for passing yards and TDs will depend upon what offensive philosophy the Bills concentrate on (run or pass) and how successful the team has been in improving Allen's supporting cast but the percentages should be about 60 and 2/1. How many games the Bills win depends upon the success of all three phases of the game, and are largely outside of Allen's control. He won't control whether the Bills field a run-heavy offense which will lower his passing stats or the defense lays too many eggs or the special teams suck again. He's not the guy doing the hiring and firing. He's not the one making the game plans or the play calls. All he can do is his job, and if he improves in that role, then he'll be successful whether his team is or not. PS - I didn't include improving his leadership in what Allen needs to do because I think he's already established himself as a leader. He needs to improve his play enough so that his leadership doesn't turn into foolish bravado.

That's his job when he's doing a CBS game. It's not a local broadcast but a national one. If you want to hear Bills-centric broadcast, cut the tv sound and turn on the radio broadcast.

Exactly this. Hard work and good attitude doesn't mean much if players don't have the necessary talent. My biggest gripe about McDermott is that he seems much too willing to forego talent if a player has the right attitude, as exemplified by his insistence on keeping Peterman on the roster.

This. Why is it that so many fans seem to think that moving high first round draft picks to other positions, especially before they've even seen real NFL action, is in any way desirable? If these guys can't play the positions they were drafted for all that well, then the team may decide to try them elsewhere to see if they do better there, and sometimes it works, but usually it just delays the inevitable conclusion that the team drafted a bust. If a team has a pick in the top ten, that pick ought to be used on "made" player -- one who can be expected to come in and start as a rookie at that position -- not one who is some kind of project who needs to learn a new position. The Bills made this mistake when they drafted Mike William #4 in 2002 and tried to make him into a LT when he'd been a RT in college. In that era, LTs and RTs had much more defined roles, and Williams simply didn't have the skill set to be a LT. Playing at RT as a rookie, he did well enough but moving him to the left side where he struggled badly helped derail his career.

Why are they "dumb"? Because you don't like that I don't see the Bills winning more than 9 games? That I think that teams like Miami, the Jets, Cleveland, and Baltimore -- that TSW mavens all believe are trash -- are going to have decent seasons? If you don't like my predictions, post your own -- which you haven't done yet.

Nothing, except that I ALWAYS confuse the Bucs and Jags. I don't know why. I can't blame it on old age as I've been doing it for many years. I'm usually excellent in geography (I once harbored aspirations to be a cartographer since I love maps) and I know where Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are ... I just always confuse their teams. Mea culpa. PS - Thanks. I fixed.

Agreed. Barkley has started more games in his five years in the league than Anderson has started in his last five years, so relevant experience is about the same. More importantly, Anderson never exhibited a brilliant grasp of the game when he was playing. Those guys who get by on their brains because they lack enough physical talent are guys like Keenum or Cousins or Taylor. The Bills have Barkley to give Allen and Jackson a "veteran's perspective". They both need to work with Dorsey to fix their mechanical flaws (if they can) and become better NFL passers.

I'm surprised that nobody brought up Mark Sanchez's bold prediction yesterday on Total Access that the Jests would go 13-3 ... only because they have the division already won and allowed the Bills to win the last game since they rested their starters. My bold predictions are ... The Miami Dolphins win between 5 and 8 games, and aren't in running for the "tanking for Tua" sweepstakes after mid-season. The NY Jests DO NOT win 13 games ... maybe 9 but not double digits. The Bills fail to win 10 or more games for the 20th straight season. NFL DCs do not effectively figure out how to stop Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense so the Browns and Ravens fight it out for the AFCN and both make the playoffs. Jameis Winston plays all sixteen games but the Bucs win enough to lose out in the "tanking for Tua" sweepstakes by a hair. Marcus Mariota plays all sixteen games but the Titans win the "tanking for Tua" sweepstakes anyways. Kliff Kingsbury gets fired before the season ends when his "Air Raid Offense" crashes and burns despite the heroics of Kyler Murray, David Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald. NFL DCs finally figure out Jimmy Garoppolo because he finally plays more than 5 games in a season ... and proves once again the genius of Bill Belichick in netting a high pick for another mediocre QB. The Seattle Seahawks re-emerge as the true power in the NFCW and serve Belichick and Brady with poetic justice with a goal line INT in the closing seconds to cement their second Super Bowl win under Russell Wilson who is named SB MVP.

Agreed. There's absolutely no proof that Anderson did more than offer some advice to Allen. More than likely what led to Allen's improvement was his forced seat on the bench because of injury. The crew on GMFB discussed how sitting and observing for several games after having started a few games significantly helped Sam Darnold with his understanding of what was happening on the field. That both rookies looked a lot better -- seemed to actually have a better idea of what they should do -- after they came back from warming the bench and just watching for a while suggests that was the real reason for improvement. When you think about it, that's probably why most young QBs tend to improve at least marginally as second year starters: they've had a baptism of fire as it were, and then have an off-season to think about what they did/try to improve their skills/better understand what they're watching on film, and then they go back out to try again -- and most of them have figured out enough to play better while the good ones play a whole lot better.

Thanks for the article. I find it incredible how so many people can forgive/dismiss Rigas for the misery his and his sons' crimes caused so many people while at the same time condemning some stupid/addicted guy robbing a convenience store or stealing a car.

Why do you assume that Anderson would make a good QB coach? Because he gave Allen some pointers last season when the Bills had a QB coach who wasn't qualified to be one? They have a real QB coach in Dorsey, so they don't need an apprentice QB coach. Since the Bills went into last year's regular season with 3 QBs with 5 total NFL starts among them, I doubt that the Bills are all that consumed with adding a third experienced QB since Josh Allen already has 11 starts and Matt Barkley's had 7 starts over 5 years. Moreover, as last year's TC and preseason amply demonstrated, preseason "competition" is a joke when the HC's favored candidate is incompetent. If you think that McCarron made a stink just because he was an idiot, guess again. He complained because he wasn't given a fair shot at becoming the starter -- and the team knew it. That the team instantly played better when the completely inexperienced Allen took over in the 2nd half of the season opener for Peterman proves that. I'll take a "rookie QB with mechancial issues", which described Josh Allen last season and describes Tyree Jackson this season, over a QB whose only positives are knowing the playbook and trying hard. Learning the playbook and trying hard isn't only the province of veterans.

That so many fans don't watch much NFL football outside of the Bills has been my point throughout McDermott's tenure as head coach. The teams he's put on the field are clearly no where near as good as they need to be on the field on both sides of the ball in order to seriously compete for the playoffs rather than luck into them because other teams making freak plays, but especially on the offense. If any other team that won 6 games last season added the players the Bills have in 2019, none of these Bills cheerleaders would be picking them to make the playoffs at this point. It's time for Bills fans to expect better from their team -- and don't give me the Bills "not being able to afford players" or "don't want to be stuck in 'Cap Hell' BS. Other teams somehow manage to build great teams, even dynasties, with the same cap and roster restrictions as the Bills. Bills apologists have been spreading this BS for twenty years while teams like Seattle, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Philadelphia, and Baltimore have at least as many Super Bowls wins as the Bills have playoff appearances. I don't want "2 Robert Foster's [sic] and 5 Dion Dawkins" because those guys are JAGs. I at least want 2 Robert Woods and 5 Cordy Glenns because those guys are actually good NFL players at their positions but I'd prefer to have 2 Andre Reeds and 5 Jason Peters because one is HOFer and the other is a future HOFer.

The Bills defensive rankings were very deceptive. The team was not nearly as dominant as some of its rankings suggest as evidenced by the fact that they were middle of the pack in other defensive measures. They weren't very good in stopping teams from scoring last season, especially in the Red Zone, and they frequently gave opponents short fields because of offensive turn overs. That so many opponents got up early on the Bills meant that teams could afford to be conservative late in the game. Those factors contributed significantly to that #2 ranking in yards. A major contribution to the #1 pass defense was the fact that the Bills defense too often couldn't stop the run as well as opponents' big early leads in several games enabled teams to run more. The Bills OL could improve 100% and still be too poor to give Allen enough pass pro or the RBs holes ... that's how bad it was last season. The Bills added 1 decent player, Morse, to their OL. The other FAs are either older or weren't good enough to start on their previous teams except for injury. Hopefully one or more proves to be a quality starter, but there's no guarantee of anything. Ford may be a starter from Day 1 but probably he'll take at least a few games to be good enough to be a starter. Dawkins looks to be the best of the returning OLers from last season, but do we get Dawkins from 2017 or from 2018? The OL has the potential to be average but as somebody said once said, "potential only means you ain't done **** yet". They gotta prove it.

I think that either the Browns or Steelers have to be considered a "strong contender" simply because somebody has to win the AFCN.

It would only be about $30 a ticket in US dollars.

I don't think anybody can realistically "expect" anything specific from the passing game as there are so many unknowns. Fans can be hopeful but that's based on they're being fans. Can Josh Allen improve his accuracy enough to become a proficient NFL passer? Can he master the nuances of the mental game and recognize when to take a chance and when to throw the ball away? Will the new OL be good enough in pass protection to give Allen the time he needs to make pass plays or will he be running for his life too frequently? Can the Bills WRs get separation and make clutch catches? Will Daboll's game plans and play calling give the Bills a respectable NFL passing game?

This seems to be what most of the posters here ignore. The Bills aren't the only team that improved -- and some of those teams that got better were already better than the Bills last season. I see a lot of posters on TSW snickering at predictions that the Browns may make the playoffs this season, but they obviously haven't looked at the Browns' roster recently. If Freddie Kitchens can manage the personalities Dorsey's acquired for him, barring significant injuries, that team is going to be an offensive powerhouse with an improved defense. It's entirely possible that if Mayfield had started from Opening Day that the Browns would have had 9 wins and maybe a playoff berth. That's nonsense. TSW had a new thread just about every day on some variation of the theme that the Bills were tanking in 2017. It was even discussed numerous times in the Buffalo sports media.

I think I read maybe two or three posts in this thread that countered Cowherd's reasons for his prediction rather than simply insulting him for not embracing the Bills. Of course, fans wearing their Bills-colored glasses have been attacking the messengers for two decades because the Bills have been a crappy team for that long. Until the Bills actually do something on the field to demonstrate that they've become a significantly better team than they've been for the last two decades -- a team that's had all of three winning seasons since 2000 -- why should anybody -- fan or sports commentator alike -- realistically think the Bills are going to be good this season when the team's actual play proves that the naysayers are right far more often they are wrong?

Both Green Bay and Pittsburgh are notable for winning with homegrown talent. Baltimore under Ozzie Newsome also had considerable success with heavy doses of drafted players who stayed through most of their careers. I think the key to success with "your own" players is good drafting. The Packers, Steelers, and Ravens have been good at drafting so that they have had lots of talent worth re-signing. Cinci hasn't been as good at drafting as the other three teams, so their pool of homegrown talent isn't as good. The Bills have been, at best, mediocre at drafting. They have compounded their less than stellar drafting by failing to re-sign most of their best draftees or the UDFA players that they developed. I disagree that regime change is primary reason for this constant regime change. The Bills have had two owners since their inception: Ralph Wilson and the Pegulas. They actually had only three different control regimes since Bill Polian left in 1993: John Butler, 1994-2000; Tom Donahoe, 2001-2005; Russ Brandon, 2006-2017. Butler and Donahoe were traditional CEO/GMs. Brandon was the "power behind the throne" who was second only to the owners in creating and implementing the team's philosophy since he essentially took over the team. Dick Jauron (Marv Levy was a figurehead), Buddy Nix, Doug Whaley, and Sean McDermott were essentially talent scouts who marched to Brandon's orders. The only big name HC that the Bills hired since the 1980s when Chuck Knox left was Rex Ryan. All the others, including Marv Levy, were first time HCs or mediocre former HCs looking for new gigs. The swapping out of players every time a new HC was hired really didn't start in earnest until Brandon took over the team ... about the time that the Bills totally embraced putting profit ahead of winning. The best move that the Pegulas have made towards building a winning team is getting rid of Brandon IMO. I think the 2017 draft was clearly a draft with Brandon's imprint on it (passing on a QB to take a DB to replace the top notch DB the Bills allowed to leave in FA). 2018 and 2019 were both significantly different which is a hopeful sign going forward.

The Bills have improved on paper but they have to demonstrate that improvement on the field. I'm not sure that they are good enough to win 9 games much less more. The Bills had to essentially start from scratch with both the OL and the WRs because those units were so lacking in talent in 2018, and the FA signings for both units were decent but not exceptional. Morse is the best FA signing. The success of the Bills offense entirely hinges on how much progress Josh Allen makes. He will undoubted make some progress but will that progress be Jared Goff-2017-like or Mitch Trubisky-2018-like or Ryan Tannehill-2012-like? I think that the Bills only hope for winning 9 or more games is for Allen to have a Goff-like improvement. More likely, he won't reach that level in 2019 -- he has a lot to master because he was pretty raw last season. While the Bills defense was statistically impressive last season, on the field, they were actually much less so. They didn't seem to be particularly good at stopping teams inside the Red Zone, and as another poster noted, they seemed to get pushed around in the run game. They also weren't all that effective in harassing passers. They have to do better. McDermott did a barely adequate job as HC in 2018 but I'm not sure that he and his staff is good enough. The handling of the QB situation last season was simply awful. It endangered the Bills big investment in Allen, and it probably cost the Bills a couple of wins. In McDermott's first season, I criticized him because he seemed to value demeanor and attitude more than talent, and my view of him hasn't changed. Just because a player doesn't fit a particular mold doesn't mean that he isn't dedicated to football and winning, and just because a player tries hard doesn't mean he can be successful in the NFL as Nathan Peterman demonstrated. I also have not been impressed with McDermott's assistant coaches, particularly on the offensive side.

Fans have been saying this early in the tenure of every regime since John Butler, AJ Smith, et al departed for San Diego in the 2001 off season -- until the regime fails to deliver real improvement and settles for their usual 6-8 wins/season. I'll remain skeptical that the team is actually improving until they demonstrate it by winning football games with some regularity. That needs to be a minimum of 9 wins, but I'm not expecting that many.

How long before the Air Raid Offense gets figured out by NFL DCs? The last time a collegiate coaching "genius" brought his offense to the NFL, it took NFL DCs only about a season or so to figure out Chip Kelly. Is the Air Raid Offense all that different from the Run and Gun that Gerry Glanville ran back in the 1990s?

OP, just because you picked Murray doesn't mean that the Cardinals "needed" to do that. What does it matter if they picked him #1 if he busts? What if Murray never gets much better than Mark Sanchez while Rosen goes on become a true franchise QB? Nobody can claim to have "won" a draft until the guys taken in that draft prove themselves, which generally comes 3-5 years after the draft.