SoTier

Watkins' two teams since he was traded were loaded at WR, so he was never his QB's favorite target. In LA, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods were already established as Goff's go-to guys before Watkins joined the team. In KC, Tyreek Hill was already established as the Chiefs' #1 WR. Currently Hill's status is in limbo. If Hill is suspended for some or all of the season, Watkins will likely become Mahomes' primary target, and he could very well "set the league on fire" in 2019.

The history of the NFL is littered with QBs with tremendous physical talent who busted because they lacked the right psychological make up to enable them to succeed. JP Losman always comes to mind when I think of a QB with great talent who just couldn't make the right play under pressure. I think your description of why Fitzpatrick always ends up throwing INTs in key situations is perfect. While Nate Peterman doesn't fit the scenario of having "tremendous physical talent" he has enough physical talent that he probably could have a productive career as an NFL backup QB if only he could keep himself from getting baited into trying to throw passes he can't possibly complete except to a defender in game action. I'm convinced that's why Peterman can look so great in practice and even look decent in preseason games but comes apart in regular season games. Allen doesn't seem to be saddled with the bad decision making that derailed Losman or that derails Fitzpatrick and Peterman but it's entirely possible -- very likely in fact -- that if or how well Allen can change/overcome his own psychological limitations will impact his success in the NFL. Being physically able to throw accurate short passes is likely not one of Allen's problems, but being able to consistently throw short when his natural inclination is to chuck it downfield may very well be a serious problem for him. Every young QB faces the same issue of overcoming psychological inclinations, so it's not something unique to Allen. The ultimate "intrangible" -- psychological limitations/inclinations -- is what makes finding franchise QBs so difficult.

A five year rebuild may very well be ridiculous in today's NFL -- if the ownership is dedicated to having a winning team. In the last twenty years, teams going from bottom feeders -- non playoff teams of various quality -- to playoff teams within two or three years has become a benchmark for judging rebuilds. Really good organizations not only field playoff teams within two or three years of bringing in a new coaching regime, they frequently make the Super Bowl within 3 or 4 years. Teams that fail to make significant progress quickly in a rebuild don't ever seem to quite get there. The problem may be the ownership, FO, coaching staff or the lack of a franchise QB or poor personnel decisions in general or any combination, but "incremental rebuild" seems to be a euphemism for "perpetual rebuild mode" that teams like Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, and New York Jets have been in seemingly forever even if said teams occasionally make playoff appearances. I agree that the Bills personnel, especially on offense, doesn't match up very well with the top teams in the league. They've added talent, but they started out with almost none on offense and added pretty modest veteran talent except for perhaps Morse, so regularly competing with the big guns doesn't seem realistic at this point. I don't think that can be an excuse, however, for them not making significant improvement in 2019. I think a losing record with a healthy Josh Allen for all or almost all of the season raises all kinds of red flags that the current regime isn't all that different from previous regimes.

I don't owe Wawrow any apology. I criticized his article because I felt that he was simply repeating "the company line" from the Bills FO and he took exception to that. That's fine. It's a discussion. Since then, however, he's personally insulted me at least twice. He's also personally insulted/attacked other posters who dared criticize his views. In this thread, he's repeatedly wrapped himself in his professional connections/knowledge when making his case for his views, but he's repeated sunk to ad hominem attacks on those who disagree with his views. That's most unprofessional. PS -- I'm not surprised that you're taking up his cause since you, too, apparently have difficulty with opinions that don't mirror your own.

The Bills weren't any better prepared to cultivate a QB last season when they drafted Allen. David Culley, the QB coach, hadn't coached QBs in thirty years. It was just another part of the total mismanagement of the QB position in 2018 despite having invested so much in a first round QB. Obviously, the truth hurts. LOL.

^^^ Well, before Allen gets to prove he's better than Mahomes or Watson, he'll have to prove that he's a bonafide NFL starting QB, something that he's not done yet. Personally, I don't think the Bills have nearly enough offensive talent on the sidelines or on the field to enable him to do more in 2019 than prove 1) he's not a bust and maybe 2) that he could become a very good QB in the future. What's vapid is continually demanding "accountabiilty" from players and assistant coaches but constantly making excuses for bad decisions from the ownership, GM and HC.

I went back 20 years because I remembered Belichick's early success, which seemed like a good starting point. I didn't expect to find so many Super Bowl contenders prior to the last ten years having success early on after a HC change but that's what happened. My guess is that it's related to the salary cap in that smart organizations choose NOT to tear down and start from scratch when they made new coaching hires because they were reluctant to create too much dead cap space. Keep in mind that I only used Super Bowl participants, and not the numerous other teams that started making the playoffs with regularity after hiring a new HC. I cannot give the Bills a pass because Beane is a neophyte GM. I don't think that's necessarily the problem. I think McDermott is the problem in that he was given way too much power over the roster for a first time HC. He seems to have a good eye for defensive talent (White and Milano) but seems poor at evaluating offensive talent (Jones, Dawkins, and Peterman) from 2017 when he bears sole responsibility for that draft. The 2018 and 2019 drafts seem better but it's not clear how much control McDermott had of those. What's fact is that the Bills have spent 3 of their 4 first round picks in the last 3 drafts on defense, and they have spent a lot of draft capital trading up for players other than a potential QB, which does not seem like a wise long-term strategy in the salary cap era when it is so essential to fill lots of roster spots with quality younger players still on their rookie contracts. I totally agree that coaches, especially offensive assistant coaches, have been a continual problem with the Bills for the entire drought era. McDermott's offensive assistants have been awful which is very troublesome. I stand by my belief that the Bills need to show marked improvement, especially on offense, in 2019. Good organizations start showing their true colors early on; bad/mediocre ones always have excuses for their lack of improvement. The Bills were 9-7 in 2014, 7-9 in 2015, and 8-8 in 2016, so they weren't "dregs" either before McDermott was hired. The choice to tear down and rebuild was a choice made by McDermott and Beane, so they don't get a pass for that decision. Most successful teams in the salary cap era choose to retool when they have a decently talented roster and bring in a new HC ... which was the Bills in 2017. I agree that the Bills need to improve significantly this year.

Aside from actually making the playoffs in 2017 rather than missing them because of tie-breakers and spending a ton of resources to draft Allen in 2018, what "trends" suggest that this regime "will be able to make moves as needed" to be anything different than a team that wobbles between 6 and 9 wins for the foreseeable future just as it has for the previous 19? Letting good, young DBs and WRs walk in FA rather than re-signing them and using high draft picks to replace them? Failing to provide their QBs with adequate protection and targets? Wasting a roster spot on an incompetent backup QB like Nathan Peterman? Hiring assistant coaches with, at best, modest resumes, including a QB coach with no relevant professional experience as a QB in 30 years? Since you're willing to wait 5 more years for McDermott and Beane to get their acts together, then you're good with 7 wins in 2019 and 8 or 9 wins with no playoffs in 2020? My guess is that you'll be pretty lonely in your support for the current regime at that point. Excuse me, but this is 2019 not 1989, and how teams were built 30 or 35 years ago is totally irrelevant to how things work today. A good organization with a good coaching staff produces a turn around in short order, not taking a half decade or more to become Super Bowl participants. Bill Belichick was hired in 2000. The Patriots won their first Super Bowl after the 2001season. Jon Gruden was hired in 2002. The Bucs won the Super Bowl after the 2002 season. Tony Dungy was hired in 2002. The Colts won the Super Bowl after the 2006 season. John Fox was hired in 2002. The Panthers went to the Super Bowl after the 2003 season. Lovie Smith was hired in 2004. The Bears went to the Super Bowl after the 2006 season. Tom Coughlin was hired in 2004. The Giants won the Super Bowl after the 2007 season. Sean Payton was hired in 2006. The Saints won the Super Bowl after the 2009 season. Pete Carroll was hired in 2010. The Seahawks won the Super Bowl after the 2013 season. Doug Pederson was hired in 2016. The Eagles won the Super Bowl after the 2017 season. Sean McVay was hired in 2017. The Rams went to the Super Bowl after the 2018 season. Numerous other teams made turn arounds from bottom feeders to regular playoff teams within 3 years of bringing in new coaches and/or coach/gms even if they didn't make it to the Super Bowl. If the Bills don't seriously contend for the playoffs in 2019 and win at least 9 games, then there seriously has to be conversations about why. I don't think that a losing record will be acceptable, especially if Allen stays healthy or only misses 1 or 2 games. I think you meant Favre was traded for. Rodgers was drafted with the 24th pick in the 2005 draft.

What you seem to be is a reporter whose access to the team is dependent upon putting positive spin on whatever the team does and who gets very defensive when posters here criticize your acceptance of the conditions for your access. Another member of the "No Critiicism of the Bills Allowed" Brigade heard from!

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. UDFA rookie Phillip Lindsay of the Broncos rushed for nearly 1100 yards in 15 games and 9 TDs. That's "significant UDFA success". It still doesn't constitution a "successful career" for him, which implies that the player makes team rosters for several NFL seasons.

Well, just because he only fired one assistant, Dennison, certainly doesn't mean that there were others that deserved a second season -- or should have even been hired in the first place. Certainly not hiring an experienced QB coach after they decided to draft a first round QB was also a major mistake IMO. Their QB coached last actually coached QBs back in his days as a collegiate assistant thirty years ago.

Since McDermott was instrumental in determining the makeup of those two rosters, I'm not giving him a pass because he's demonstrated his preference for "process" over talent ... and yeah, I think numerous coaches could have gotten more wins from 2018 roster simply by sending Nathan Peterman packing before the start of the season ... his pick 6 in the last minute of the fourth quarter in Texans' game, which was tied at the time, lost the Bills all chance to win that game. If McDermott is, he hasn't demonstrated it much over two years. His teams have been too often unprepared and his game time coaching has been mediocre at best -- and the numerous blow-outs over two seasons underscore that. As for your first point, with Pegula as the owner, you're probably right. After all, he had to actually spend time considering whether he should fire Phil Housley after the horrendous collapse of the Sabres at the end of the season. Football is football, and there are numerous other games to watch while the Bills are getting their butts handed to them as regularly as the Bills have during McDermott's tenure.

I'm sure that McDermott's love affair with Nathan Peterman contributed to his ranking.

Obviously, it's not too early to fit Beane and McDermott for their gold HOF blazers.

Where did I say that Allen was doomed to failure because he didn't play all that well as a rookie? I said that he has to improve his passing and decision making significantly as a sophomore if we can truly expect him to become a good/great QB, and if he does that, then his stats will reflect his improvement as will the team record. Statistics are simply reflections of how well a QB plays, and that means passing statistics. If a QB can run -- provided he doesn't get hurt -- then that's only icing on the cake, but it does not cancel out mediocre passing ability and decision making, As for "cherry picking", that's exactly what you did by only citing Manning's rookie season. Peyton Manning had a higher completion percentage as a rookie (56+%) than Allen (52+%). He threw 26 TDs, 28 INTs, 3700+ yards and his team went 3-13. If he had continued putting up those kinds of numbers, he'd have been considered a bust not a future first ballot HOFer. However, in his second season, Manning made major improvements in his passing and decision making that resulted in him increasing his completion percentage to 62% and throwing another 26 TDs but only 15 INTs for almost 400 more yards ... with the Colts going 13-3. Manning did what I said Allen has to do: improve his passing game and his decision making. It's what just about every single successful QB since Manning has done, too. How good a QB becomes largely depends upon how much and how long he can keep improving his play over the course of his career. QB busts like Ryan Leaf or J'Marcus Russell never make significant improvement. Others like David Carr, Mark Sanchez or EJ Manuel make modest improvements but hit their ceilings fairly early. Some, like Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger or Andy Dalton improve more over longer periods. Then you have the guys like Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Brees, and Wilson who seem to only get better with age.

I didn't realize 13 games, 3 starts, and 27 receptions for 541 yards (Foster) or 7 games and starts and 3 pass defenses (Wallace) constituted successful NFL careers. Millano at least played in 29 games over 2 seasons, starting 18, but again, that's hardly a "successful career" at this point. The author of this article is really scraping the bottom of the barrel to come up with examples of UDFAs and day three draft picks who've done well for the Bills.

Actually, all the 2018 first round QBs except for Rosen showed marked improvement as the season progressed. I expect all of them to show at least some improvement coming into 2019. How much they improve from where they were last season and if they continue to improve throughout 2019 will be real indicators of their future success. Your A, B & D reasons are true for almost every QB who's drafted in the first round. Your examples of his leadership skills (C) aren't really very good. Lots of mediocre QBs have done both. Allen got his teammates to play better last season -- within the limits of their less than average abilities in too many cases unfortunately -- which is the key indicator of a QB having the "it factor". That on-field leadership is what Allen demonstrated last season, and is probably his most encouraging trait. His teammates believe in him now, but in order for them to continue to believe -- and give that extra bit of effort -- Allen has to up his game, too. He has got to get better as a passer and a decision maker, and if he does that, then his stats --and his analytics -- will automatically improve. A QB who can't complete somewhere around 60% of his pass attempts isn't going to lead his team to many wins. A QB who throws too many INTs or takes too many sacks or fumbles too often because he holds the ball too long isn't going to lead his team to many wins --- and his teammates aren't going to continue to follow his lead without on field success.

I don't have a clue if Allen will succeed or fail, so I don't have an opinion on that. He did not have a good rookie season. That's not an opinion, it's a fact. How he did as a rookie, however, is largely irrelevant in determining whether he becomes successful or not. How much he improves as a second year starter will be far more predictive. Virtually all the good/great QBs over the last twenty years improved significantly in their second season over how they did in their first. That doesn't mean that he has to become a Pro Bowler as a sophomore but rather that he has to show improvement in the skills that good/great QBs possess. I was surprised and encouraged by how Allen played in 2018 but how he plays this coming season will be much more predictive. He needs to improve significantly from where he finished 2018 even if that improvement isn't reflected in gaudy statistics for any number of reasons, including coaching, tream offensive philosophy, offensive talent, etc. I think that he needs to make continual improvement over the course of the year so that he's not only better in 2019 than he was in 2018 but that he's a better QB in December than in September or October. That would indicate that he's still not reached his ceiling and can improve more in the future.

Did he really "always seemed to pick the correct time to run" or did he simply run because, like many rookie QBs, he didn't know what else to do with defenders coming after him? Moreover, while hurdling LBs makes for spectacular highlights, it's almost a guarantee that a QB is not long for the NFL if he makes it a habit. If you want to watch a QB who "knows the correct time to run" -- and how to do it -- watch Russell Wilson extend Seahag drives with regularity -- and usually without taking a hit, too.

I didn't say it did. I said it didn't disqualify him which the poster implied it did simply because he covered sports in southern New England (Mass/Conn/RI). This has nothing to do with Josh Allen and his chances of being a successful NFL QB. I have no opinion on that because I don't have any idea how he'll turn out -- and nobody else has, either. We all have opinions, and right now, the positive opinions of Allen's prospects are based on hope not fact because he didn't play all that well as a rookie.

What "ton of other intangilbes" has Allen demonstrated in his 11 NFL starts? "Intangibles" are traits that enable QBs to be successful that aren't statistically measurable and sometimes aren't even definable but which are keys to separating average NFL QBs from great ones. Work ethic and leadership are two intangibles that Allen has demonstrated that he has. He has not yet demonstrated that he can read defenses quickly and correctly, that he can make good decisions, that he can play "clutch" like Brady, Rodgers, Brees, etc. That may be simply that he was only a rookie ... but maybe that means that he doesn't have any or some of these. At this point, nobody really knows.

IOW, Schatz has much more experience watching Brady rather than Losman, Edwards, Fitzpatrick, Manuel, Orton, Taylor, Peterman, and Allen. How, exactly, does that disqualify him from stating his opinion on a Bills QB?

I suppose this scumbag highlights his "traditional family values" in his political campaigns ...

I think Allen won as many games in 2018 as Garoppollo has won in his entire career, so neither has done anything in the NFL. I think both should be lower simply because both are unproven along with Darnold, Rosen, Jackson, Haskins etc. I would put all of these unproven guys in the lower third of the rankings since they're all resting on hopes rather than actual production.

Totally agree. I would be good with #32 being given out to a vet who joined the team and requested it or to a first round rookie, not to a scrub.