SoTier

About half of all first round draft picks fail to play like first round draft picks ... ever. I think that you are spot on. If the Bills can land a premier veteran pass rusher, it's likely that Rousseau suddenly becomes better.

I'm tired of this "Worthy is so good" and "don't trade with the enemy" BS. The Bills needed a big WR not a smurf. Coleman fit what the Bills wanted and needed. He's not the first rookie WR who looked uninspiring but developed into a good player. Worthy is faster than Shakir but that's his only advantage. They're both small WRs, but Shakir totally fits the Bills offense. He's a better route runner, better blocker, and more sure-handed than Worthy. Shakir's also tough as nails. Calling Mahomes "mediocre" might be too kind, but he didn't come close to being as bad as Peterman.

The Bills desperately needed a game wrecker on DL.

Garbage time TDs.

RIP

That may be true if you assume that all positions are equal but they aren't. QB, pass rusher (DE or EDGE), and LT are the positions in which 1 player can definitely make a huge difference. The Bills have the QB and the LT. They need the pass rusher, and there's no one likely to be available in this draft than Garrett. Even a blind squirrel can find a nut, so yeah, sometimes teams get lucky and find great players outside of where they're likely to be found. After all, the Bills found one of the all time great LTs in NFL history, Jason Peters, as an UDFA, and Patriots found the GOAT, Tom Brady, in the 6th round of the 2000 draft. It's not a sound strategy for building a Super Bowl team, however. FYI none of the DEs you listed started from Day1, and three of them didn't start full time for 2 or 3 years. Trey Hendrickson didn't become a full time starter until his 4th season when he was switched from LB to RDE. Maxx Crosby started 10 games as a rookie for the 7-9 Raiders, a team that has had only 1 winning season since he was drafted. Chris Jones and Danielle Hunter didn't start full time until their third seasons. Aaron Donald was a DT not a DE or LB, and DTs aren't frequently drafted in the top 5. Since 2017, only 2 DTs were drafted in the Top 5: Malik McDowell and Quinnen Williams. Only 6 other DTs were drafted 6-10 during that same period, including Ed Oliver. Top pass rushers who can make impacts as rookies aren't generally found outside the top 10 unless there's some unusual circumstance, most notably, a run on QBs at the top of the draft. Micah Parsons, a LB who was DROY, was drafted #12 in 2021 when 4 QBs were drafted before him. Jared Verse, a DE who was DROY for 2024 was drafted #19 when 6 QBs were drafted before him. In order to move up into the top half of the draft where the best DE prospects are usually taken, the Bills are going to have to trade up, giving up draft capital and/or players ... and there's no guarantee that even a Top 5 prospect will become a game wrecking pass rusher. I'd sooner spend those resources on a proven pass rusher even if he costs a lot more. The Bills need to improve their defense for 2025, not wait around for a rookie to maybe develop. That defensive improvement starts with the DL, and adding Garrett or Crosby would make all of the other DLers better. A better pass rush takes a lot of pressure off the LBs and DBs, so the entire defense is better.

Finding a game-wrecking edge rusher in the draft is much like finding a franchise QB prospect; they are seldom found outside the Top Ten, and too frequently, the prospects don't work out to be as good as hoped for. For a team like the Bills that drafts at the bottom of the first round, that means trading up in the draft to get a premium spot or trading/signing a veteran. The draft is such a crap shoot, even in the top ten, that I don't think I'd trade up to get in position to grab a top DE/EDGE. That leaves spending resources on trading/signing a veteran that's already proven as the only realistic alternative. The veteran is going to cost big $$$, and sometimes that goes south because of injuries as it did with Von Miller. It's the only thing the Bills can realistically do if they're serious about winning a Super Bowl, so I'm on the "trade for Myles Garrett" bandwagon.

Why do you view this hiring as some kind of negative reflection on Bobby Babich? I simply don't see McDermott as the kind of person who would hire an assistant coach with the idea of pressuring another of his assistants because he (McDermott) didn't think that assistant wasn't working hard enough. It seems to me it's more likely that McDermott saw an opportunity to give Babich some additional support with an experienced former DC. I believe the Bills also added another defensive assistant for the DL. What all this signals to me is that Beane and McDermott are going all in on improving the Bills defense first by bolstering the defensive coaching staff and then, hopefully, significantly improving defensive talent.

I think your idea has some merit, but Doug Pederson is not the candidate to put forward for it. I'm especially concerned that both Wentz and Lawrence regressed under his coaching. It's entirely possible that they're both just not very good, but Lawrence's decline this past season says that Pederson is not particularly effective.

What, exactly, has Pederson done since he won the SB after the 2017 season to warrant consideration for the job "assistant HC" on any team, much less the Bills? In his 8 years as a HC, his teams have made the playoffs exactly once, 2017. Pederson had the #2 overall pick in Philly in QB Carson Wentz. He had the #1 overall pick in Jax in QB Trevor Lawrence. Both QBs' play declined the longer they played for Pederson. IMO, Pederson caught lightning in a bottle in 2017 when he won the SB with a backup QB on a gadget play. Big pass.

I'm recovering. This is the first time I've been back to TBD. I tried to watch GMFB yesterday but bailed when the Chiefs were mentioned. Right now, I don't want to hear/read/see anything about the Chiefs. I think I hate them right now in a way that I haven't hated a team since I hated the 70s Fins.

Exprienced HCs frequently also wore GM hats in "the old days". Lou Saban, Don Shula, and Bill Parcells were three who came to mind. More like an unsprouted seed.

I watched that segment with Cam, and I disagree with your assessment. Based on all the complaints I heard here about Cam, I expected him to diss Allen. He didn't do that at all. He questioned Allen's teammates -- can they make the big plays when needed -- but he praised Allen. He obviously sees Allen positively but the Bills team as not so great, especially compared to the Chiefs. Maybe you shouldn't be such a Cam hater so you can actually hear what he said rather than putting a negative spin on everything he says.

I think all the posters who think that a OC/DC should jump at the first HC position offered him are thinking short term. New Orleans isn't a good landing spot for a coordinator aiming to become a HC because the lack of a good QB, an aging roster, and bad cap situation could very well spell FAIL for any HC much less a first time HC. If a HC in his first gig fails, he may not get a second chance. If a coordinator is on a really good team, he might do better waiting for a better opportunity in the next hiring cycle. Brady has to weigh his options. If his heart is in Louisiana (including his family's sentiments), then accepting the Saints job is probably a no-brainer. If Brady isn't emotionally tied to Louisiana, the decision needs to be more analytical. Ben Johnson waited and got the perfect situation. Bobby Slowik didn't get a HC gig in the last hiring cycle and got fired during the current one. Of course, Johnson proved his high-powered offense wasn't a one and done while Slowik failed miserably.

The OL is significantly better, too, in both pass pro and run blocking. McGovern at C is better than Morse, and Brown has developed into a stud at RT. In listening to the media, it seems that most analysts haven't even considered the Bills running game being a weapon at all. If they could run against the Ravens, they can probably run against the Chiefs unless Spagnulo is willing to sell out to stop the run.

I'm sure that the NFL has a market research company regularly conduct surveys that capture fans' opinions on most of the topics on the list.

It became predictable because the Fins built a team that used running as an afterthought because Shula believed his great QB and 2 great WRs (Mark Clayton, Mark Duper) could beat anybody. Forty years later, the current iteration of the Fins are built the same way with Tua, Hill and Waddle ... and they're having similar results again against a more balanced Bills team. The posters complaining about the Bills game plan against the Ravens and/or complaining that the Bills aren't taking advantage of Allen's talent by passing more are making the same mistake that Don Shula made 40 years ago: you don't try to throw the ball all over the field just because you have a great QB. The Bills are not "wasting" Allen's talent by running more than passing against a particular opponent as long as they win the game. The whole point of playing football games is to outscore opponents not to win statistical battles, especially in the post season! Marino set all kinds of passing records by the time he retired, but he only made a single Super Bowl and lost it. The other two great QBs from the 1983 draft class, John Elway and Jim Kelly, made nine trips to the Super Bowl with Elway winning two Lombardis. The Bills need to have 1 more point than the Chiefs on the scoreboard at 00:00 on Sunday night. I don't care if the score is 38-37 or 10-9. If they do that, there's no "wasting" of anybody's talent. Not Josh Allen's, not Von Miller's, not Amari Cooper's, not DaQuan Jones' ... not Joe Andreessen's or Ray Davis'.

I give a thumbs down to the idea. For starters, a QB on the level of Allen or Mahomes counts for 2 or 3 blue chips at least. Having blue chip players on the OL and DL is probably more effective than having blue chip players scattered around the roster. Having quality backups is also really important. I think that coaching counts, too.

A couple of takes from GMFB today on the Glenn hiring: Akbar: How will Rodgers react to Glenn? Will Rodgers try to undermine Glenn? (My interpretation of this is: that's what Rodgers did to Saleh). Kyle: This move sounds like a rehash of previous coaching changes. It's nice that Parcels endorsed Glenn, but Parcels has been out of football for 15 years and out of coaching for more than 20. This seems like a move to placate disgruntled fans. (My interpretation of this is: sell tix and merchandise).

IIRC, it wasn't just that teams forced Miami to pass, but that Don Shula believed that he didn't need a running game to win because Marino was so great, so he NEVER gave Marino a solid running game ... and Marino never got back to the SB after losing Super Bowl XIX after the 1984 season, under Shula or his successors.

The Ravens had real problems in pass defense in the first half of the season, but they changed some schemes and personnel in the second half of the season that enabled them to significantly improve their pass defense. The Bills forced the Ravens to make every effort to stop their running. Largely abandoning the run in the 2nd half would have been exactly what the Ravens wanted them to do. Do you think that the Bills chose the game plan they did in Week 4 in an attempt to make up for not having Milano, Bernard, and Johnson on defense? I'm on record that I think the Ravens were absolutely a far worse match up for the Bills than the Chiefs ever were or currently are, but you've really given me a new perspective on the Bills vs Ravens match up. Certainly the Bills never looked over-matched in this game.

Did the Bills not have success running the ball in the first half? Three rushing TDs and a 21-10 lead suggests that they did. The Ravens sold out to stop the run in the second half. Given that they had an 11 point lead and the weather, the Bills chose to play it safe in the 2nd half rather than try to pass downfield a lot. Moreover, some of the second half plays that failed were audibles, so they weren't part of the game plan.

Exactly. The Bills' offensive and defensive game plans are tailored specifically for their current opponent, so each game plan is different. Sometimes the offense and/or defense look similar from game to game because of the opponents have similar weaknesses and strength. The Bills are not going to play the same kind of offense and defense against KC as they did against Baltimore because KC isn't Baltimore. This is the Bills overriding philosophy for every game, and it absolutely works. It means every game requires game plans constructed to exploit each opponent's specific strengths and weaknesses while minimizing stupid plays and mistakes. Too many posters don't understand this. IMO, Allen and the OL are the Bills deadliest offensive weapons because the Bills can run or pass. When opponents sell out to stop the run, the Bills can counter by passing.

I think that if you asked any NFL HC, he'd consider forcing a turnover to be better than forcing a punt. Exactly this! I figured that the only chance that the Bills had was to lay a 40-burger on them, which no team did all season. Since the Ravens beat the Bills 35-10 in late September, they went 11-3 with two score or more wins in 7 of them, including playoff teams Buccaneers, Broncos, Steelers (2 x), and Texans. They also beat the Commanders and Chargers. They embarrassed division rival Steelers' defense in the WC round. The Ravens also rolled up 200+ yard rushing games 7 times during the season and playoffs, including against the Bills in September and in their previous 4 games before Sunday. In fact, in the WC game against Pittsburgh, they ran for 299 yards. Furthermore, holding Derrick Henry to < 100 is a key to beating the Ravens. In the Bills loss to the Ravens in September, Henry ran for 199 yards. Henry ran for < 100 9 times including the 2 playoff games. The Ravens lost 6 of those games, including the Divisonal round game Sunday. They also had 2 wins by 1 point and an OT FG over the Bengals when Henry failed to run for 100 yards or more. I think that in the context of the way the Ravens had played prior to the Divisional game, the Bills defense did an excellent job. The Ravens were a terrible match up for the Bills defense, but the Bills evened the odds by forcing turn overs. Actually, while Lamar was careless with the ball, he was also trying to get free from Hamlin who had him by the leg IIRC. It was a classic example of a player fumbling when fighting to get a few more yards.

McDermott and Babich have taken a bunch of lemons and made some tasty lemonade. I don't think that there's anyone who believes that the Bills have a particularly talented defense, but they are probably one of the best coached defenses in the NFL this year. I don't care that the Ravens didn't punt on Sunday because 3 of their drives resulted in turn overs which yielded 10 of the Bills 27 points. Moreover, the Bills defense has regularly forced take aways all season and have done it against the best teams they've played including the Chiefs (2) and Lions (1) as well as the Ravens (3).