IgotBILLStopay

Besides Foles and Flacco, Plunkett (2), Theismann, McMahon, Johnson, Dilfer, Simms, Hostetler, Rypien, Williams are all SB winning non HOFs who say hello:) Not So rare actually. We have been spoilt by Several HOF caliber QBs who played recently - check QB all time records and most are held by guys who played in the past decade. So will agree with you if you add the phrase “of late”.

Hence the PPR / Half PPR versions. Raises receivers and pass catching RBs value.

I'd go 1. Allen 2. Murray 3. Jackson 4. Mahomes The main reason Murray goes over Mahomes is that he gets a ton of rushing TDs. He likes to keep the ball himself and run in short yardage red zone situations. That is also why the Cardinals RBs underperform in Fantasy. I won all my fantasy groups last year (both regular and PPR) and the one common factor was having Allen (who I drafted typically in rounds 6 or 7). Guys who had Murray always made the playoffs (so guys who had Murray did pretty well). Murray was on a tear first 9 or 10 weeks before he hurt his shoulder. The only reason I have Allen over Murray is that the latter can get hurt because of his style of play. Allen is more durable. Make sure you have a good Qb2 for the playoffs though. I had to rest Allen for week 17 in favor of Herbert for obvious reasons.

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/2021-nfl-defensive-secondary-rankings-by-positional-unit/ I think it will be more effective in 2021 than 2020 with the revamped DL. Lotuleilei, Rousseau, Obada, Boogie and an improved Epenesa for Jefferson and Murphy (that is an unbelievable upgrade) Ofc, you still have moronic rankings that put Tre at #95. SMH. But good to see at least some non-Bills sources recognize his greatness.

With Allen not being in the Bills' preseason plans, he sure seems to have lotsa time. I dont think any other top flight QB has been on the interview circuit as much as he has in the past couple of weeks. I dont mind it at all - since it only seems to make him better on the field - 15/15 better. So go for it kid! We love to hear from you.

I had just begun to worry about his lingering knee issue. While McD had said it was minor a while ago, it had become a bit concerning when several days have passed without Diggs in pads. Finally we have some good news: Diggs will be back next week. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2021/8/20/22633770/buffalo-bills-injury-report-stefon-diggs-expected-back-next-week

Yes. I wanted to pick one of Teller, Quentin Nelson, Joe Thuney or ZackMartin, who in my view, are the top 4 offensive guards in the league. Chubb / Hunt don’t really get the yards on their own - many of their big runs have come behind Teller. And that is what this team needs on offense - someone to open holes for the RBs. Don’t think less of Teller since he was just our 5th round pick and we let him go. He IS the MVP of Cleveland’s running game. You do know he was All-Pro in 2020, right? I know he is not the most glamorous name - but - just exaggerating to make the point - Do you think a more glamorous name like a DeAndre Hopkins would help more than Teller? There is only one ball and only so many passes Allen can throw - the incremental benefit from some of the glamorous names to our roster will be way less than these unglamorous names, IMO. On offense, our priority has to be to upgrade the run game. see the 10th name on this list https://www.nfl.com/news/top-10-nfl-mvp-candidates-russell-wilson-leads-field

What does this mean for Zach Ertz? Third string? Ha! First!

For a rookie with non-existent support, he still won 3 games and had a 66+ Rating - FYI Peyton Manning with a lot more support had 71 rating in his rookie season. But Arizona hired Kingsbury and had the #1 pick, which made the Murray pick inevitable. Even so, Arizona was undecided for a long while - not at all like the Burrow / Lawrence scenarios. With even the #2 pick instead of #1, Arizona woulda likely continued with Rosen. This comes to the heart of the matter. When you are the third stringer practice reps are at a premium. I am not sure he got enough in Mia and SF. He may have still sucked with enough practice reps - but we would never know unless he gets those reps.

Feel sorry for Rosen. I may be in the minority but I believe that he still doesn’t get a fair shake. He has been supplanted by the #1 overall pick, #4 overall pick and #3 overall pick in successive seasons. No organization picking that high is ever going to give Rosen a fair shake above their top 5 pick. And in both Miami and SF, there has been an established veteran at #1 on the depth chart making him number 3. He needs reps to show what he has got or not got. Edit: Y’all make a convincing case that he has had enough chances. I stand corrected.

The kinda question every GM with a franchise QB locked up forever asks (or shd ask). Nice

On offense, 1. Wyatt Teller, 2. Derrick Henry We need a mauling guard and/or a powerful back to bring balance to the offense. On defense, 1. Linval Joseph or Brandon Williams 2. Khalil Mack This is not to piss on Donald, who may be the best 3-tech DT ever. Only reason Donald is not there is because we have Ed Oliver. What we need to free Oliver is a stout (330 lbs stout) one-tech 4-3 DT who can thrive in McD’s system. Hence the non glamorous suggestions of Joseph or Williams. MACK NEEDS NO EXPLANATION. Brilliant. That is outa the box thinking!! Weaken the opposition.

Allen had arguably the most hype. I know I was pumped to see him and was comparing him favorably to Darrold Rosen and Mayfield (I was asleep on Jackson though) even then https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/8/23/17772724/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-nfl-preseason-hype

That is a wonderful write up. Even the throwaway line where you say what you are not going to write about is so informative. You have a gift. My only quibble (sorry I agree with 10 things you have written and disagree with one - but instead of talking about everything I agree with - I will write about the disagreement); Clearly we all think Beane is a wizard. But if you want to nitpick, nitpick on the Boogie pick (though it is early), not the Epenesa pick. To defend Beane on Epenesa - he knew that pass rush was going to be our one weakness on defense on the 2020 roster and picked the top DE available at 54. The fact that Epenesa didn’t develop as he should have because of no TC etc. is not a knock on him. Watch him this year and we will revisit Dobbins vs. Epenesa later on this year. Remember that the fall off on DEs was too steep after Epenesa but RBs were still available after Dobbins. Edge rushers are always a more premium position group to draft from - Worst comes to worst, can always throw 7 million a year to get excellent RBs, but to find Edges, we have to offer three times the amount. And Beane did not really whiff on RBs in the 2020 draft since we got Moss. How Moss / Motor do vs. Dobbins is also a function of the OL (that is SpencerBrown’s role). But I am optimistic on Moss since he complements Motor better than Dobbins (in 2020 offseason we were all way higher on Motor than we are now). with Epenesa and Rousseau in the fold, maybe Boogie was a luxury. But to defend Beane, he didn’t get to see how Epenesa and Rousseau would fare while making the Boogie pick. But still if we are revisiting Beane picks with the benefit of hindsight, this pick is more questionable than the Epenesa pick.

Yup nearly 8 seasons. Part of 2012 season and all of 2013-2019 seasons.

TBH, Tre is a little low at 95 IMHO.

Will try to find the NFLN video Tre actually said it is harder to guard Beasley one on one than Diggs. Others were all so effusive in their praise - Diggs and Tre have never, in TC or otherwise, seen him covered one-on-one. Chris Godwin and Justin Simmons also talk about how great Pops Beasley is. Matthew Slater, Damien Harris, Godwin talk about him. The technician!1

Lol. Yes Beane is playing chess but so is everyone else no? Where is the evidence other GMs are playing checkers?

Lol that rephrasing tells me you have understood my point. There is a relevance reliability tradeoff. The more info you get, the more reliable it is. But as we get more info, it gets incrementally staler (diminishing returns). The earliest info is the most relevant - there is a reason we all follow rookies in the summer league or preseason - it is the freshest most relevant piece of news. When you rephrase it as marginal contribution, the net effect is a function of both relevance and reliability and hence obviously unclear. I don’t think I have ever disputed that.

oh my! Exaggerating the rose tint to make the point - what would you rather have? a. A rookie edge rusher out of Miami who basically sat out the last 10 TC practices and preseason week 1 due to injury (mind you injury was a red flag for him coming into the draft) b. A rookie edge rusher out of Miami who has received glowing reports all through minicamp and TC (going against Brown and Williams at Tackle) and actually had three pressures and a sack in 11 snaps in the preseason ( sack was after beating a top 10 pick at Tackle) The first was taken at #18 and the second at #30 by two competing AFC East front offices after significant due diligence. Which front office and fan base should be more pleased? I don’t disagree that it is still early but enough with the curmudgeonly thinking already! FYI - The seventeen year playoff drought ended 4 years ago.

I think this is a serious question - so I will attempt to clarify. I am averaging information from various sources regarding performance / potential of these rookies. I have followed the TC reports (and minicamp info) of these six on a daily basis - but just summarized them in a few lines each for the post. I have also watched every preseason snap for those that played. you are right that three of the rookies did not play in the preseason. But a. I have also been following them through TC and, b. availability is the first ability and two of them could not suit up due to injury, which is a knock on them. We all remember what happened with Shaq Lawson as a rookie, no? Turner was held out deliberately despite an impressive second week of TC ( he had two sacks in just one Saints practice against Hil / Winston) and my ranking reflects that - he is not being penalized for not playing. Diminishing returns is an economic concept and Gunner was disputing it by talking about sample size which is a stats issue and can’t speak to the validity of diminishing returns of information. I don’t think there is any dispute at all on the small sample size. I already acknowledged the sample size issue in the title. The ranking is no doubt a subjective opinion, can it be anything else at this point?

But I have been following the six first rounders all thru minicamp and TC. I know most fans will only be following their team. That is why I thought the post would offer something different. I will keep updating as more info is available. that said I do admit that a bit of Bills bias may creep into the rankings. Not gonna apologize for that tho 😀

That is what I thought. Good call on Ossai.

Oh my - do you really want to argue that the very first action / availability against nfl schemes and competition will not be the most informative on average? And info includes minicamp and TC reports besides preseason game 1 as well. If you wish to argue that sample is too small, that Is a variance (second moment) issue, not an average (first moment) issue. That has nothing to do with diminishing returns. sry gunner I respect your player assessments - but you really can’t dispute the Econ / stats issue, no?

but the first returns have the most incremental info, no? Then diminishing returns set in. Ofc there will be exceptions, but that doesn’t take away from the importance of early takeaways.