SCBills

These first down runs have got to stop.

Schopp & the Bulldog actually making a great point right now.. Vivid Seats estimates 44% of tickets sold to Bills fans based on zip code analysis. Given how many Bills fans live in driving distance, Bills fans should easily be the majority in that stadium tonight.

I actually don’t think his “eating the cats” comments were crazy anymore. I don’t know if he meant for it to be a 4D chess move, because I’m not willing to give him that much credit.. but it’s working out that way. Normies now are hearing about a small town of 60k in Ohio that had 20k Haitian migrants dumped on it and if you look it up there’s stories from citizens all over of pets missing, ducks being taken and a decapitated pigs head in a park. It’s in the mainstream consciousness now. Run of the mill illegal migrant rhetoric wouldn’t have done what those comments did.

Trump may have sounded unhinged talking about “they’re eating their pets”, but he injected this story into the mainstream consciousness.. Even has Marianne Williamson backing him up on it today..

Eh.. you underestimate how much he resonates with a certain segment of young people. We’re a Kamala Harris Presidency away from young people potentially driving the far right movement like we’re seeing in Nordic countries. (If she continues the economic & border policies that we’ve had for 3 years). Keep your eyes on fraternities and sororities around the country… they no longer care about being openly known conservative.

Agreed. It’s basically a football game for people who care about politics. You root for Kamala. I root for Trump. We both watched the debate. Trump kept fumbling and missing opportunities to score. Harris didn’t do much, but was able to capitalize on Trump’s mistakes and home field advantage. Kamala wins. Nothing changes. We all move on. We’re far too polarized of a society for these debates to mean a ton anymore. The only people who matter are the sliver of undecideds in seven states. That’s it. The rest of us.. it’s just about getting us excited about our team.

Conventional wisdom doesn’t matter with Trump. It’s insane. We watch a debate, think he lost. Nobody cares. Focus groups show people leaning more to him now after that. His clips dominate social media. The viral Gen Z TikTok trend right now is people dancing to an EDM edit of “they’re eating the cats” and making jokes about Haitian migrants in Springfield.

I know it’s not a must win for the season, but in terms of my outlook for the season… a win would make me view us as a legit contender, whereas currently .. I’m just not sure yet.

It’s not even so much being a role model.. Its that, despite the lavish lifestyle, more women than not now relate to a 34 year old woman who’s never been married, has no kids and thinks every man she’s dated in the past is toxic. I don’t dislike her. And this isn’t meant as a dig.. But her fanbase isn’t just 13 year olds, she’s huge with 20, 30, 40 something year old women .. and just an honest fact, they identify with her because in their romantic lives.. they are her.

We’re two days out. There’s a Trafalgar poll showing no movement post-debate but I highly doubt you care about that one ha. All we know so far if that general consensus amongst commentators is that she won. I agree. Focus groups don’t show that translating to winning them over. Some focus groups have 6/10 undecided now Harris and some have 6/10 undecided now Trump. We do know from those focus groups that a big issue is that they still don’t know who she is or where she stands on the issues. And we know the Harris camp wants another debate, whereas the Trump camp does not. I certainly thought it would be the other way around after Tuesday Night. And we know from reporting that Harris advisers have privately told her she needs to establish herself more on the big issues, namely the economy and border, where undecided still, post-debate, trust Trump more. Which lines us with public focus groups.. and we know both campaigns also have private focus groups as well. Maybe polling comes out next week and the debate made a difference. Maybe not. We don’t know yet. All we can do is read the current tea leaves.

Taylor Swift’s endorsement was always coming. It was just a matter of when. She’ll register, maybe, a million new voters when all is said and done, of which maybe half will actually vote when the time comes. If I’m a Dem, I’m leaning on her and her PR team to put pressure on Kelce and his PR team to publicly endorse. I don’t know that it moves the needle with the male vote they have all but conceded (pun intended) .. but it’s a better shot at doing so (pun again intended) than trying to pitch us Tim Walz goofball self. It’s a risk for Kelce.. but he did the Pfizer ad, knowing he’d get mocked for it. I think there’s a chance he does endorse Harris. He’s also had some right wing “likes” and comments in the past, so I have no clue what his politics are, but I think he would endorse her if the PR teams involved deemed it helpful in his post-playing career.

Ok, anyway… It’s not moving the goalposts to analyze how undecided and/or persuadable voters digested the debate. I think Kamala won the debate. She was more prepared, kept Trump on defense and had rhetorical sidesteps ready for everything that came her way. I think she did everything she set out to do in that debate. I think she’s hoping that being a candidate who can’t be pinned down on any of the big issues is enough against a candidate a lot of people may have been looking for a reason in that debate to not vote for. But it doesn’t seem like that worked. There is a disconnect between stylistically winning a debate and winning over voters. The persuadable voters in this election very clearly needed to hear what she stands for. Many of them admit that life was better under Trump, but he’s Trump, so give me a reason to vote for you… And she didn’t. Dont get mad at me.. Her own advisers, days after the debate, are telling her she needs to debate again and get out front on the issues. If they felt her strategy worked, this wouldn’t be their advice.

What did she say to win over undecided voters? That seems to be the growing question coming out of the debate as focus groups don’t seem to match general consensus that she won the debate, therefore she won over voters. Everyone knows who, and what, Trump is. Trump fighting with Kamala and both moderators all night, going off about very online stories of Haitians eating pets and talking about mafia tactics against the Taliban is who he is. Optics-wise, Kamala controlled the debate, but what she didn’t do was tell anyone who she is and/or what she stands for. Trump doesn’t need to do that, we all know. She does. And she didn’t. Also, the moderators were way too over the top and due to that, we’re now seeing a Streisand Effect where research on the Haitian pet stories, research on late term abortion etc are skyrocketing in google searches and social media shares. Trump’s clips are the ones being shared on IG, X and TikTok. Kamala had a polished, corporate speak night, which seems to be fading into obscurity. Nobody remembers anything about her night, because she said nothing. My snap reaction was that Trump was a disaster.. but that doesn’t seem to be reflected anywhere outside the political class, in real America.

What do you think of Bret Weinstein? Intellectual thinker who hasn’t gone the way of Jordan Petersen. Bret was just on Chris Williamson’s podcast, where he’s a regular .. it’s worth a listen if you’re open minded.

😬

So this election is truly going to be men & married women vs unmarried women, isn’t it…

Its not just that one focus group though.. There are alot of focus groups by various political lean outlets. A lot of them portray the same narrative.. Kamala won the debate, but they didn’t hear enough from her to know where she stands & at least they know what Trump is.. and their life was better under him. It could very well be that Trump is such a known commodity that nothing about his performance mattered. Undecideds needed to be won over by Harris .. and they weren’t.

Betting markets saw Trump getting destroyed online over his debate performance resulting in a Kamala jump, but now realize everyone thinks the debate was a joke and no one was moved.

I'm so unbelievably sick of this story. Everyone involved should've handled it better. At my office, turn on WGR and we're getting a play by play of it, again, by Maddy Glab with Cameron Wolfe. Good stuff. Fun times.

He did lose. Where do you see people here stating otherwise? Politics don’t always shift based on a debate. Most recently, Trump losing his debate with Hillary in 2016. The debate is over. Now the focus is on what, if any, effect did that debate have on the electorate. Polling may pick up any trends, or lack thereof, in the next few days/weeks… but today is about focus groups: -Dems are THRILLED -R’s are angry at the moderators -Undecideds seem unmoved from their leans heading into the debate Thats all we’re really seeing today.

They didn’t need to do that. And they shouldn’t have done that. Kamala had bait ready to go and by all indications, he would’ve taken it all night. The moderators junked up the debate and in doing so, blunted her debate momentum by making it about them. Undecideds also wanted to hear what she stands for. The moderators never pushed her for substance and focused far too much on topics only those in wealthy NYC high rises & DC suburbs care about. That seems to be to her detriment as focus group after focus group are starting to portray a similar theme .. and one that’s not positive for the Harris campaign, despite her clearly coming across better than Trump on optics last night.

Already seeing lib thinkpiece articles bemoaning the litany of undecided focus groups admit Kamala won the debate but that they are leaning more towards Trump. Again, this likely means they leaned Trump but were willing to be won over by Harris. Which doesn’t seem to have happened based on snap reactions, at least. If, big if.. she loses this election, one could wonder whether the extreme moderator bias was a net negative for her given the main complaint undecideds have for her is that they still don’t know where she stands on much of anything. A substantive debate that forced her to flesh out those stances could’ve doomed her… but it also could’ve won those people over. Thats not what we got. What we got was a feel good night for those already voting for Kamala with undecideds left disappointed. And that disappointment is all due to ABC News and how they chose to handle this debate.

Well.. Pat’s wife (and from people in the know) Pat himself, are MAGA, so, there’s that. And fwiw, some people on this board aren’t ready for the Josh Allen conversation. Thankfully, like Pat, he’s not one to ever discuss his political views.