ChiGoose

Editor Jon Ralston’s 2024 Nevada election predictions Fellow Bills Mafia Member and Nevada elections guru Jon Ralston makes his final predictions: President: Harris - 48.5% Trump - 48.2% US Senate: Rosen: 50% Brown: 45% US House Winners: Dina Titus (D) Mark Amoodei (R) Susie Lee (D) Steven Horsford (D) State Legislature: 25 (D) - 17 (R)

The party that is pushing pro-union and pro-worker policies is the corporatist party. The party whose only major piece of legislation in a decade was permanent corporate tax cuts and temporary individual tax cuts, and whose nominee has told billionaires and corporate leaders he’ll do whatever they want if they give him money is the party of the people.

So much copium.

Big yikes

Wow, must just be complete blind luck that she’s regularly the best pollster out there despite ending up being off by an inexcusably large margin of one point in 2020. How do past Iowa Poll results compare with presidential election results in Iowa?

This a pretty good (and quick) interview with Ann Selzer on her poll and methodology. Ann Selzer: How Could This Be? The big difference between her and most other pollsters is that she does not do recall vote to try to fit to a prior election’s turnout (I.e. assuming the electorate is going to be more like 2022 or 2020). She mainly just screens for likely voters and weights by demographics and geography from there. She mentioned that one of the biggest surprises was that women over 65 have moved from generally supporting Republicans to voting for Harris at a 2:1 clip.

Anecdotally, every Harris yard sign in my neighborhood (including mine) was stolen the other night while both Trump signs are still up, untouched.

Twitter’s ban almost doubled attention for Biden story Classic Streisand Effect

Slow, low energy old man. Sad! Also, somebody buy this cameraman a beer

1. It’s a really bad idea to try to make predictions from the early vote 2. Do you think all of those registered Republicans are actually voting for Trump? 3. How confident are you that these are new early voters and not cannibalization of the Election Day vote?

Weird how a letter that explicitly states that they do not know if the laptop was a Russian op gets interpreted by MAGA. I guess we can’t be surprised when they fall for hoax after hoax given their comprehension skills…

Gotta wonder if Trump’s mismanagement of COVID has turned older voters against him

I’m old enough to remember when Seltzer predicted that Clinton was a lot weaker than the consensus showed she was in 2016…

Well yeah, Seltzer is the best in the business. She nailed the Trump momentum in 2016 when everyone else thought Clinton had it in the bag and she also showed Biden was weaker in 2020 than many people thought. It’s not just some random pollster, it’s the gold standard pollster. That’s why it drives the narrative.

Right, this is an argument in Seltzer’s favor. She’s never been known to herd and routinely goes out on a limb (and is often proven correct).

Agreed. It’s absolutely shocking. I was expecting something around Trump +8. I found the article with a deep dive interesting: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how If she’s found something, it appears it’s Harris with a devastating 20-point lead with women combined with a surprisingly strong performance with voters aged 55+ at 2-points over Trump. It’s a big if, but if she’s right, and those numbers play out nationally, we’re looking at Harris being closer to 400 EVs than 300. It would be stunning

I’m having a hard time believing this. She’s usually the best but if she’s right, this race is already over. We’ve been seeing evidence of herding lately but Seltzer doesn’t herd so this is interesting.

Yeah, makes sense now why he’s been hitting up large cities like going to MSG.

Woof.

For one, we know it wasn’t staged.