Shaw66

I only watched highlights, and I've seen him play before. He has modern NFL tools. I was surprised to hear how awful he looked, and I'm curious what that is all about. Has he not been doing the homework? Is the offense too complicated to learn in six months? Has he played only in simpler offenses? Really troubling, because I was pleased when they signed him - a guy with tools, good enough to hang around the NFL, and a friend of Josh's.

Thanks. That's what I assumed. Frankly, I assumed the same about Rapp. I don't really know, but I expected both to be solid players at their positions. Difference is that the Bills had a hole at guard, so McGovern starts, capably. They don't have a hole at safety, so Rapp's a backup and, as some have suggested, maybe the dime hybrid safety/linebacker. I hope that's what the Bills have. People keep talking about Torrence being a question in pass protection, but I'm not too worried about that. One of the good things about pass blocking in the interior is that you don't have to make big moves laterally. You need to be quick, and quick laterally for a step or two, but the space to protect is more limited. He doesn't have to bounce outside and protect the inside like a tackle does. From having watched film of him in college, I think he has the quickness. He certainly will have to up his game, because he hasn't seen interior quickness like he's going to see. But I think he has what he needs to build on, and he certainly seems to be able to plant and hold his ground. I'm an optimist, I know, but I think we're looking at something different than we've seen in years, maybe even decades. Three guys across the middle who really can play in the run game, and Brown, who's really mobile, and Dawkins. For the modern NFL, that line could be a really good run blocking team. I'm confident the three in the middle can protect the middle for Allen, and I'm hoping Brown and Dawkins can hold up on the wings. Plus, if Cook truly emerges, the running game should be potent. I think until yesterday, people have been sleeping on who Murray is. They seem to think he's just some downhill, short-yardage guy, but that is not at all who he has been, including last season. He can play. I was okay about getting Harris, but I was more excited about Murray.

Funny. Same thing happened to me. Gunner never had Mrs. Atkinson for English. You never screwed up your antecedents with Mrs. Atkinson.

Thanks, Gunner. Any observations on McGovern and Rapp?

I'm a Gabe Davis fan. I think he's a solid #2 receiver. He'll never be a #1 in a good passing game. I think the Bills should let him play out his contract and test the market. If his stock is low, the Bills might resign him. Otherwise, let him go. Beane signs guys off their rookie contracts when he thinks the guy is a key long-term building block. I don't think that's what Davis. Your #2 receiver is only a long-term building block if he's going to replace your #1, and Davis isn't replacing Diggs. Assuming Kincaid works out, Davis will be at best the third option in the passing game, and that just isn't worth a lot of money. I think, other than your stars, you have to keep turning over your skill position players. I think Beane's done it right at running back. Year after year he's looking for serviceable guys, and he keeps finding them. He got a few good years out of Singletary, he's looking for a few years from Cook, and he has pretty good backups. Same at receiver. You have a parade of guys coming through and fit them into your offense as it continues to evolve. I think the Bills should be planning on a first or second round wideout in the draft, coach him up to fit into the #2 role. If he turns out to be good, he's the replacement for Diggs when the time comes. If he isn't that good, he's still good enough to inflict pain on defenses as the second or third option in the offense. I think it's a dynamic league. It keeps changing, everyone keeps adapting. When you keep good but not great players, it tends to make your team stagnate, and you can't afford to stagnate; you have to keep changing. The Bills already have plenty of keepers: Hyde, Poyer, White, Miller, Oliver, probably Rousseau, Dawkins, Allen, Diggs. Potential keepers in Torrence, Kincaid, Cook. You can't pay everyone. As the current keepers age out, you'll have more money to pay new keepers, but your #2 receiver is only a keeper if he's going to become you're #1. That isn't Davis.

Well, you can say all of that, but I still say it means they're confident they can play with what they have. They already had McGovern, and they trust Bates at guard (except they wanted an upgrade) so if they really wanted a linebacker they had a second-round pick to get it done, somehow. They didn't do that. They didn't go after any quality talent in free agency. That's simply uncharacteristic of Beane. He wouldn't sit still if McDermott needed a linebacker. He always does something. Beane's got a Super Bowl contender. No GM in that position is going to do nothing about getting a middle linebacker, unless he knew he didn't need one.

Listen. You don't like some players. Fine. That doesn't mean Beane's done a bad. Beane has repeatedly addressed the oline, albeit with less success than the Bills needed. He did it again this season, with a significant free agent acquisition and a second round pick, as well as other help at OT. Same with wide receivers? Are kidding? He acquired Brown, Beasley, Diggs, Davis, two excellent tight ends, Shakir, and now Shorter, Harty and Sherfield. Running backs? He got Singletary, Moss, Hines, Cook, Murray, and Harris. You are way off base if you think Beane's don't an overall bad job at those positions.

This is nonsense. You are ignoring what I say and responding with nothing that is responsive to what I said. I did not say he is capable of playing the middle. I said it seems that McDermott has a different view of how he wants to build his defense, and that is to have fast athletic guys on the field who are aggressive tacklers. Williams is a guy who fits that description. They've said they would like to play him in the middle, but that he'll begin his career on the outside. That's what they've said. The fact that other draft analysts says that he isn't a middle linebacker is based primarily on their view that linebackers have to be bigger. It's completely obvious that the Bills don't agree with that. I have said practically nothing about whether I think Williams can play the middle; I don't know. What I do know is the Bills think he can, and you keep ignoring that. Second, you suggest that the Bills didn't plan for Edmunds departure. You continue to ignore, completely, what I've said. If they thought that that they needed help, they would have gotten it. They made no moves to get help, which means they believed that they can the play they want in the middle from Dodson, Klein, Bernard, and Spector. That's certainly what they believed. They did not fail to plan for Edmunds departure. You may not think those guys can play the middle, and you are free to have your opinion. But your opinion about middle linebacker does not mean the the Bills failed to plan for the position. It just means Beane and McDermott think that the talent they have will work fine in the defense they want. Many others may be positing it, but you are the one who is consistently mischaracterizing what I am saying. Bye.

It IS inconceivable. McBeane didn't think they needed more help in the middle. How do we know? Because they didn't go get any help. None in the draft and none in free agency. They drafted a project in Williams, not to start this season. Beane has ALWAYS gotten help in places where the Bills believed they had holes. The fact that they didn't get any help at all means they've always been willing to go with the four guys they had on the roster and PS last season.

What they've said is he will be outside for now. I think we won't see Williams inside this season. I think we will see him working in the middle beginning off season in 2024.

I like that guess. It's consistent with my guess about what McDermott's grand scheme is. I think he is testing the limits of the speed-vs-size tradeoff. He is going to force offenses to prove that they can over the Bills' front seven in the run game, and until those offenses can prove they can do that, McDermott is going to play fast athletes who tackle aggressively. (That, by the way, may also have something do with why Elam hasn't won the CB2 spot outright - he hasn't brought that kind of talent to stopping the run. I don't know, but it's consistent with this idea that Bills could play with one linebacker. If you're taking run stopping linebackers off the field, then the defensive backs have to be run stoppers.)

I don't care so much what the draft profiles were. I think McDermott is building to a model he thinks is what's needed in the modern NFL. He wants speed and athleticism and doesn't think size is that important. I'm not saying that's right or wrong, it's just what I think he's doing. He requires speed, athleticism, brains, and aggression in the middle. Edmunds' size was an added feature, a plus, but not essential to what McDermott is looking for. Edmunds turned out never to have the aggression. Williams has it all, with the brains yet to be determined - can he play the position? I don't think McDermott cares very much that he doesn't have the size Edmunds has.

That is exactly the problem. You can be sure the Bills' financial experts have been studying the market very carefully to figure out how far they go on ticket prices and PSLs. They can't afford to outprice the market. They'll be forced to eat some of it.

I agree. Ultimately they agree. Beane couldn't and wouldn't force McDermott to keep a player McD didn't want.

I don't know about three OL, but it's a good point. I'm not a roster guru, but I'd be surprised if they let Settle go. If they do, I'd think there'll be a market for him.

Uh, those aren't the important numbers. The Bills apparently have net income about $100 million. In other words, if the project is $300 million over budget, it wipes out three years of profit. That's significant.

Interesting that Quessenberry and Boettger, people that many of us once viewed as good depth, both are mired on the third string. Says something about the depth on the line.

If there was any question about ticket prices or seat licenses, these cost overruns, and however much more to come, answer the questions. It's going to be costly, and the Pegulas will not simply swallow the whole cost. Even if the Pegulas eat half of it, and put the other half on the fans, that's $150 million! Ain't making that parking cars. It only can come from ticket prices. It's the classic small market dilemma - it's expensive to play in the big leagues. Bigger markets have more people with discretionary dollars, and more dollars. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the Pegulas will take the whole cost of the overruns. What they're trying to do owning and running these teams is give Buffalo a big league experience. It's what they signed up for. That's an incredible commitment of personal wealth tied up in this business risk, and they may view it as the chance they took when they got into the NFL.

Absolutely. We all tend to forget what a big jump it is. High school to college is big, college to NFL is big, too. It's a whole nother level or two. I heard someone say that, except maybe in the SEC, if you're an NFL talent, it may only be one game a year where you're lined up against another NFL talent. Everyone else you play simply is not at your level. Even in the SEC, it's true most of time. You hit the NFL, and all at once the guys across from you are bigger, quicker, stronger, and smarter than all but one or two of the guys you saw in college. There's only on way to adjust, and that's to get live reps against the kind of talent you're going to be playing against. In fact, that's one of the hidden benefits of having a good team instead of a team from the drought years. Each year in camp, we hear many players say how good is to be able to practice against Diggs, against Miller and in this case, against DaQuan and Oliver and Ford and now Phillips. None of it means Torrence will make it. That remains to be seen. But he's getting to go against top-quality NFL talent every day in camp, and that speeds up his development, as compared to being on a mediocre team, or worse.

Wow. That doesn't look like last year's model.

That's true. Josh and Dorsey. Bills have the tools. Dorsey needs to run an offense that utilizes them, and Josh has to execute it. This offense should be as multiple and as feared as the Chiefs at their best with Hill and Kelce.

I've said before that if Kincaid can make some plays early in the season, the threat of him will be enough. He and Knox will force the defense to be stout in the passing game up the middle, which should create opportunities for the wideouts, and for Cook in the flats. So, I think Kincaid could prove more important than what is reflected in his yardage.

What I like is the versatility. There's a role for a Beasley-type quick little guy in the slot, a guy who can separate from man coverage with raw quickness and change of direction. That's a different kind of threat. Kincaid is a Kelce-type threat in the slot, a guy who offers a big target in the open spaces in the zone. If Dorsey does it right, that will be times when Kincaid and a small slot guy are in the huddle at the same time. If, for example, Shakir can be that slot guy, and he also can play wideout, when they're both in the huddle the defense has a real problem. A formation with Kincaid wide and Shakir in the slot poses completely different problems for the defense than one with Kincaid in the slot and Shakir wide. The same, maybe even better, with Kincaid on the field with Harty or Sherfield. If Kincaid is as good as he seems to be, based on camp reports, the versatility of the 11 guys on the field for the Bills will be amazing. Think about it: The #1 wideout is top 5 in the league, and a matchup nightmare. The #2 wideout threatens all over the field, depending on whether it's Davis, Sherfield, Shakir, or who knows, maybe Shorter. The slot guy threatens the middle of the field - I mean, if Kincaid can be a threat anything at all like Kelce, it would be amazing. The running back looks like a serious three-down back who can be great in the passing game. And the quarterback is both a great thrower and a legitimate running threat. The Eagles might be the only offense in the league with such high-level threats throughout their entire lineup.

I think you're ignoring a lot of factors. First, sometimes teams miss on a draft pick. Yes, one would expect that a first round choice would have won a starting spot by the end of his rookie season, and Elam didn't do that. The Bills may have made a mistake in an evaluation of his talent. It happens to teams all the time. The objective is to minimize the bad choices. I'm not saying Elam's a bust - I think he will be fine. If I had to guess, I'd say he'll be the full-time starter before this season ends, but we'll have to see. Second, when your team is good, it's harder for rookies to win starting time Why? Because there's better talent on the team, so the competition to start is tougher. Dane Jackson and Benford wouldn't appear to be tough competition on paper, but obviously they're better than their resumes. Third, just like you can miss on early round picks, you can score on later round picks. That seems to be the case for Benford. Fourth, when your team is good, you draft later, and the sure-fire starter label that goes with first round picks really only applies to the picks in the top half of the round. As you go down through the first round, you begin to find more guys who are not instant starters. That's been true with the Bills first round picks since they got good. Rousseau started but didn't really light it up. Those guys are not that much different from high second round guys, and those guys often are not instant starters. Fifth, trading up is something Beane has done often. Everyone is jumping for joy that he did it for Kincaid, so I wouldn't be too quick to criticize the technique. He also did it for Josh Allen, and that seems to have worked out okay. As for the linebackers, I'll repeat what I said yesterday, in this thread or another. Have you ever known Beane NOT to go after talent when he thinks he has a hole in the lineup? He's clearly gone after edge rushers, receivers, running backs, offensive linemen, corners. If the Bills think they have a hole, Beane fills it. What does that have to do with the middle linebacker position: The Bills don't think they have a hole there. If McDermott wasn't satisfied with Spector, Bernard, Dodson, and Klein, they would have gotten a veteran free agent, or they would have made LB a priority in the draft. They didn't do that, and that tells me that they aren't worried about linebacker.

I don't think they're infallible. But I do think that they have 100, maybe 1,000 times more information than any one of us. McDermott's been doing this for 20 years, every day of every year. He has a DB coach and several assistants who are watching these guys in practice, in games, and rewatching all of it on film. They also have an overall plan for the defense that they don't share with any of us. So, yes, I do think it's much, much more likely that they, collectively, understand which player is best able to do their job. I remember Kyle Williams just laughing off the idea that some guys at PFF could watch film and evaluate his performance. He said it was ridiculous. He said they didn't have the experience, and they didn't even know what his job was on each play.