Shaw66

It's amazing how much your view is strictly rear view mirror. Nothing wrong with that. "No reasonable analysis can be conducted before the playoffs are over." I get it. It's a different version of Parcells saying, "You are what your record says you are." However, that's analysis of games played. It is true that one can conduct a thorough analysis of 2022 and conclude that the Bills were the third best team in the conference, but that doesn't mean they can't be the best team in the conference in 2023 before the season is over. I can't argue personnel, and changes that teams have made, and the evolution of the game, and whatever, but I know there are plenty of arguments that can be made today that the Bills are better than the Chiefs. Arguments like their offensive line got worse and the Bills O line go better. Arguments like anyone who watched their receivers on Thursday has to wonder about the continuing effectiveness of their passing game. Arguments like they are weeks away, and could be months away, from getting Chris Jones back. What happened last season is a starting point, but there are objective facts that exist today that need to be factored into any analysis of the relative strength of teams.

It's gotten worse as I've gotten older. Now, I can feel it starting the day before the game, except sometimes, like today, it's two days before. Day of the game, it just builds and builds to game time. I'm all fidgety, trying to get prepared.

I don't know that you're right, that any reasonable analysis puts them behind the Chiefs and Bengals. I agree, looking backward, they definitely were third. Looking forward, I think one could reach a different conclusion. They might have been complacent last season, but my point is that I don't see them being complacent this season. I think they ache to win this season, and the ache will be there all season. Salonpas won't work; there's only one cure for that ache.

If the Bills are definitively the third best team in the AFC, then those are two really good football teams.

Actually, it's not such a big difference. Both guys are abusing their bodies. The offensive lineman I heard was talking about eating 6000 calories a day for months in order to maintain his playing weight. He said for his entire playing career, he couldn't roll around on the floor with his kids because he had no flexibility, and because all of his joints ached from carrying the weight. I'm not defending Dawkins, at all. I'm disappointed he didn't have the discipline the modern game requires. I'm just saying that it's naive to think that guys going on crash diets are the only guys abusing their bodies in the NFL. A lot of them are, from their brains to their toes.

This is my hope for the Buffalo Bills for the 2023 season. I’d like to say it’s my prediction, but I don’t have a lot of evidence to back it up. I have a feeling for how the season will go, and I hope I’m right. I expect the Bills to have a very successful season. I expect they will win the AFC Championship, and I expect they will win the Super Bowl. No, I don’t feel that way every season. I believed it could happen last season, but I didn’t expect it. So, what’s different this season? I think the Bills have a new attitude. I think they’ve stopped reading and listening to all the people who say how great they will be (in part because a lot of people have stopped saying it). I think they’re, in a word, pissed off. Okay, two words. They know they could have won it either of the past two seasons, and they have developed a mindset for winning. I told you, I don’t have a lot of evidence, but I think that’s where they are. I think many or most or all of the Bills players have developed an assassin’s mindset. The Bills are a team full of assets from a Bourne movie – highly skilled, single minded operatives determined to overcome any obstacle to achieve an objective. Why do I think this? Well, maybe it’s only because that’s what I want them to be, but I think I hear it, or don’t hear it, in what the Bills are saying. They’re not talking about their greatness, or what they’re going to achieve, or how they want to do this for Buffalo, or anything like that. All they’ve really said is that they were enormously disappointed with how they finished the 2022 season. Allen said the other day the captains are holding everyone accountable. Diggs is telling his teammates they “stink.” I fully expect Diggs and Allen are telling Dorsey that he has to give them stuff they can execute and hurt teams with. Dorsey is demanding that Allen play with the discipline the position requires. I get the feeling they’re still a touchy-feely family, but there’s an element of tough love now. Guys like Bernard and Kincaid and Torrence are feeling the pressure, because they can see the excellence and the intensity their teammates are bringing. They know they must match it. And in a few weeks, Miller’s coming back, and he’s going to take the focus to a higher level. In their heads, they know they can beat anyone and they know they can win it all. They know it. I think they’re coming into the season determined and with an understanding of what it takes: Everything, every game. For example, I think they will beat the Jets. I don’t know the Jets lineup at all, and I’ve seen all the hype. I know the Jets will be prepared mentally and emotionally. I don’t think it will matter. I expect the Bills to be prepared mentally and emotionally to an extent that the Jets don’t yet understand. The Bills know how to win a marquee game like this, because they’ve won and lost them. They’ve had a few weeks to get ready. They will come with preparation and intensity that the Jets won’t match. When week two comes, the Bills will remind themselves that they know what it takes, and they will be prepared again. And then week three. And when December and January and February comes, the determination still will burn in them. The Bills now understand, they know what they want, and they will not be stopped. All season long they will come at opponents with the quiet, unstoppable ferocity of an assassin. Occasionally, something will go wrong, the ball will bounce the wrong way, some team will match their intensity, but the Bills will recover and move on. This will be the year. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

I agree. It used to be much more common for guys to do what he did - let himself go and then diet like crazy to get ready for the season. I was surprised to see him so overweight. Still, his diet was pretty incredible. The flip side is I heard a retired offensive lineman interviewed on the radio, and the interviewer commented about how fit the guy looked. The retired player said he weighed 190, and that he had eaten enormous quantities of food to maintain a playing weight around 300. When the season ended, he would drop to "only 260" or something in the off-season, then eat his way back up to his playing weight. Once he retired, he started running and returned to really was his normal weight under 200. He said there are a lot of pro football players like him, which means they are "dedicated professional" athletes who are trashing their bodies to carry the weight to play the game. Cuts both ways.

I think he's Pete Retzlaff, the best Eagles tight end of all time. He was wide out turned tight end. He'll be guy who isn't quite suited physically to his position, bit he's just too good not to play. He has the potential to be a regular 1000 yard receiver.

Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford? You can be sure there were plenty of people saying it's only one game when the Bills beat them to open the season. They were wrong; it was an indication of how good the Rams actually were.

I'm not saying either, but there's nothing wrong with people who have this opinion. Russell Wilson lost a similar one point game to open the last season, and it have been completely correct for someone to have blamed Wilson and said the Broncos have issues. The reality of the league is that almost every season there is a team that most people consider to be a lock to make the playoffs and don't, like the Rams last season. It happens, and a few people can actually see it coming.

This is true, but it's also one of the interesting thing about the NFL schedule. Even though we won't know until December to know who these teams really are, the L on the Chiefs schedule counts just as much as a December L. Pretty much everyone in the AFC has what looks like a tough schedule. Over time, of course, some of those teams will turn out to be easier outs than we think today, but most teams are simply going to have a tough schedule. Getting Ws rather than Ls is going to be difficult every week. Starting with an L is significant, especially a non-conference L. KC's AFC gauntlet hasn't started yet, and they're 0-1.

I just think you go for it because you have Mahomes. They didn't lose the game on that play. Mahomes didn't play great, but they didn't give him much help. That's where EB may very well have been missed. Yes, but the call sheet that Reid works from is designed by the OC.

Yeah, but I think Goff's average, what you can expect from him, is not what he looked like when he went to the Super Bow. He was a decent QB who had the benefit of a coach who helped him excel. I think he makes it less likely that his team will be great. If you want to be consistently great, you need a Mahomes or Allen or Burrows or Rodgers or (name a couple more who are on the cusp). If Goff wins a Super Bowl, it will happen because he had a career year that came together with a lot of other fortuitous things. Mahomes already has won two because his average years look like Goff's career year.

I don't think it matters. Plus, you probably lose the two minute warning any way. Punt plays take six or seven seconds when you figure the time to get the ball to the punter, hang time, and return. In that situation, Lions probably don't catch the punt, but let it bounce. Unless the Chiefs are really lucky, or succeed in punting out of bounds, the clock is going to run to the two minute warning. Which is what it did anyway. All of those things are possible. But if I have Mahomes or Allen or Lebron or Steph Curry, I want to give him another touch.

Whaddya mean? It was the first game of the season, and it's the only thing to talk about. It's also the Chiefs, and a loss by the Chiefs is important. And it was an opportunity to see what this year's version of the Chiefs look like, because before too long the Bills will be in that stadium trying to beat them. Certainly worth talking about, whether you're interested or not.

Beck - I am definitely flattered. I've written that a couple of times, but I don't think anytime in the past couple of years. It was a hockey game. Yes, it was an epiphany. It was so clear that those women were really focused on their bodies and how they looked, and suddenly it dawned on that of course they would be because their partners were also focused on their bodies. Think about what Dawkins did. It was, apparently, five or six weeks, 35 or 40 days, where EVERY DAY he: (1) drank 100 ounces of water before he ate anything. Think about that. Eight glasses of water before eating anything. (2) Ate a salad for lunch. (3) Ate a salad for dinner. (4) Maybe had a protein bar. That's it. Every day. I couldn't eat my favorite food every day for six weeks, but that diet? These guys are focused on their performance in ways that, to be honest, aren't normal.

I didn't ignore it. I mentioned it. It's a risk. But at that point in the game, you have to take risks somewhere. I just think that if you have a Patrick Mahomes, or a Josh Allen, the difference between giving him five chances with the ball and six chances with the ball is big enough to take the risk. When you have a guy who can win the game for you, I think your decision making has to be skewed in the direction of giving him the ball as often as you can, and the risk be damned.

You're talking about the Lions, which is fine. You can have your opinion about how they're going to do. I don't have an opinion. That's fine. As for the trend, I think it's clear. There's been a very clear shift in the league, in terms of defensive strategy, in that more teams are following what was McDermott's lead. Get pressure with four and try to limit the blitzes. Play more zone (announcers last night said the Lions have gone that way), and stop the downfield passing game. Defenses are getting good at that. Mahomes didn't have success going deep last night, and Allen had more trouble last season as teams were forcing him to play the short game. When your passing game is limited to short passes, because the defense is putting defenders deep, running becomes a more effective tool. Why? (1) Because with defenders deep, you don't find as many tacklers in the box between the tackles and, (2) the differential between yards gained per pass attempt and yards gain per rushing attempt shrinks. I think it's undeniable that it's happening. Last night, the Lions forced Mahomes to throw short, and the Chiefs didn't take advantage by running more effectively. The Lions didn't run great, either, but they had their moments when they hurt the Chiefs with the run. The Chiefs weren't balanced in their offense, and increasingly, being balanced is important. I think it's clear that the Bills intend to be more balanced this season. Why? Because if you can hurt people with the running game, then the mid-range passing game becomes more effective, and it's easier to hurt people with Davis and Kincaid and Knox taking advantage of the open spaces. As I've said, it's up to Dorsey.

You have to assume that your defense will not give up the first down. If you're defense is going to give up the first down, then by all means you should go for it on 4th and 25, because otherwise you're going to be in total desperation mode.

Absolutely. The game is so much easier when the script works, and it's up to the OC to write a script that works. The definition of "works" is that a receiver is getting open on schedule somewhere and quarterback makes the reads on time to see that the guy is getting open. Then it's easy throw and catch. To raise a sore subject, I think that's one reason that Davis was disappointing last season. Davis wasn't open, either (1) Josh blew the read and threw to the wrong man, or (2) the scheme didn't work, so no one was open and just just did the best he could. It also could mean Josh should have audibled. No. 2 receivers need the scheme to work and need the QB to recognize who the open guy is in the scheme. Last night, a variety of things may have happened. One is that the Chiefs' game plan may have been faulty, because they didn't have a lot of film of the Lions. They may have been outschemed. Even so, the receivers let them down. Mahomes didn't seem to have easy places to go with the ball as often as in past seasons. Certainly Kelce would have given him a few more easy throws. But the receivers on the field didn't look like they were helping, and then there were the drops. Mahomes' throws weren't always perfect, but that doesn't excuse the drops.

I think you have to go for it on 4th and 25. You're only chance of winning is scoring, and it's almost certain that the only way you're going to score is on offense. Yes, it's possible they'll muff the punt or turn it over after you punt, but the chances of either of those happening are slim. You have to score, and you have to score on offense. If you punt, and stop the Lions on three plays, you get the ball back with maybe a minute 40 and no timeouts. If you go for it and don't make it, and if you stop the Lions on three plays, you still get the ball back with a minute 40 left and timeouts. MAYBE, the Lions get a field goal. But the point is, the ball with minute 40 and no timeouts is maybe five or six plays, excluding downs you burn clocking the ball. I think at that point in the game, having one more offensive play, even if it's fourth and 25, is more valuable than the field position you might lose. You need to give Mahomes every opportunity with the ball that you can. And maybe on fourth and 25 the Chiefs gain 20. Then if the Lions go three and out, they punt and you're in the same position you would have been in had you punted instead of going for it. So, by going for it, the Chiefs got an extra offensive play, and that point in the game, having that play is very valuable. It didn't work out, but I think the decision was correct. Mediocre QB, maybe you make a different decision, but I know that if it's the Bills in that situation, I want to put the ball in Allen's hands. Either way, if you fail, you have to rely on your defense for a stop, but only by going for it do you have an extra chance for your QB to make a play.

I didn't say they were great running the ball, and I didn't say they can win just with that they have. My point is that they, like many teams, have decided that they're going to feature the run more than was common a few years ago. Coaches are figuring out that it's gotten more difficult to pass than a few years ago, and one of the reasons is that defenses (including the Bills' defense) are selling out to stop the pass. That's why the Bills play a slot corner instead of an outside linebacker in a 4-3 alignment. As teams have sold out to stop the pass, running is getting easier, so coaches have realized that featuring the run is a viable way to build an offense. See Ravens, 49ers, Titans. The pendulum is swinging, and the Lions clearly are part of that trend.

That's true. He needed pinpoint accuracy on some second-half throws, and they weren't there. The thing about the great QBs is that when they get in great offenses, they're completely deadly. Mahomes and Brees are/were at their best when the offense is creating a lot of open throws, because they make those throws over and over again. (I think, for example, that Goff never will be a star, because he isn't consistently accurate.) When the offense fails to generate a lot of those open throws in rhythm, even the great ones have trouble. That's why I've thought all year that Dorsey is perhaps the most important key to the Bills' success this season. His job is to have an offense that flows, that generates open receivers on schedule. If that's what Josh is looking at, and if he's patient, Josh can be deadly. Still, I saw Mahomes' greatness last night. He knows exactly what's going on. Several times they showed Mahomes after a play had failed, and he was make this signal with his hand, as if to say, "Come on, come on, give me the next play." He's really focused, always thinking about what he should be. Someone drops a pass, he may make a little gesture, but you can see that he doesn't dwell on it. He just moves on.

It's the re-emergence of the running game in the NFL. At first it was just Tennessee, then the Ravens, and now it's the Lions. And other teams. If you can run on first down and get five yards (or more) on a lot of those plays, which is what the Lions did, you can control a lot of games. With teams so focused on stopping the pass, running has been getting easier. I believe that's why the Bills like Spencer Brown and wanted Torrence. I'm guessing that this season, finally, we'll see the Bills be serious about running the ball, because McDermott wants to take what the defense is giving. If the passing game is solid, running is going to get easier, and stopping the offense will be a bigger challenge.

Oh, I disagree. His decision making was superb. His movement in the pocket is excellent, and his decisions to run are almost always correct. Give him a 10-yard completion instead of the pick six that was totally not on him, and his passer rating was in the 90s. Give him a better receiver (Kelce, or a wideout), and Chiefs would have cruised. All they needed was one score. There is no one better.