Shaw66

I agree with this, but it isn't an answer. Elam has, in all probability, some better physical skills than Jackson and Benford. That's why he was a high pick. So, what is it that makes him so clearly worse at the job than the three who are ahead of him? The OP asked for actual information, not opinion, but there is no actual information. McDermott didn't hold a press conference to explain why Elam isn't active. We're about to find out. When he wasn't active, there wasn't much pressure on Elam to improve. But if he goes active, he's going to have 42 teammates telling him he needs to make the plays. Frankly, I'm expecting him to rise to the challenge.

Well, I don't understand it, and it's based on someone's subjective judgment of how important some stats are relevant to others, but in the end it works. It doesn't really matter that the maximum score is arbitrary and capped, because no one is putting up the maximum score for a season. (Passer rating isn't all that useful as a one-game stat.) What matters is that at the end of the season, the passer ratings actually do have the best throwers on top and the worst on the bottom, and it does that. That is, the ratings correlate with our understanding of of who's best and who isn't.

I don't agree, but that's an interesting view of it. I mean, there has been a steady increase in talent on the roster since McBeane arrived. Every year, a lot of people around here would agree that the roster is the best the Bills have had. Receiving corps keeps getting better, offensive line has gotten progressively better, d line too. Running backs. So, yes, I think it's true that Allen has great personnel now. Try to imagined Allen in his second season surrounded by this talent. You're saying that Allen would have been as good as he's been in the last few weeks. I don't buy it, but it does make sense. I've always thought the Chiefs and Reid were exactly the right place for Mahomes, and that there were other places where Mahomes might have succeeded. Would he have succeeded in Buffalo, with McDermott in his first year? Part of what Mahomes had was a collection of good skill position guys. I don't remember who they had, but Reid already was running a solid offense. So, yeah, I get it.

I think spying Allen has worked in the past. Teams were forced to spy in order to try to keep Josh from running all over the field. I think teams can't spy the new Josh nearly as effectively. Josh is running less, so the spy is a wasted defender. He's just a guy playing a one-man zone in the short middle and isn't very helpful defending the pass. He won't follow receivers crossing through the middle, which will create opportunities. It's really very simple. Josh Allen is a football player who can throw better than almost any quarterback who's ever played. He isn't Michael Vick or Lamar Jackson, but he is a faster and more powerful runner than just about every other quarterback who's ever played. He's playing in an organization full of players and coaches who are fierce and determined competitors. If he's running an effective offense, Allen's presence on the field is almost like having a twelfth man on the field.

Thanks for these interesting comments. As for Davis, I'm fine and have been. I think a #2 is a guy who takes advantage of mismatches created by the offense. I think that's exactly what his touchdown catch was - a clever play design that forced a defender into a decision, maybe just instantaneously confused the guy, whatever. The point is, he let Davis run free, and Davis made a very nice catch. Uncontested, but that's what you expect your #2 to do - get the ball when he isn't contested. Nice if he's more than that, but what we saw from him yesterday was enough for me. But we've beaten that dead horse for months now. I'm really glad that you focused on the fact that everyone was making plays. I agree about each of the plays you mentioned, and there are plenty more. Look at the defense: Groot was seriously engaged throughout the game, and Milano. The entire defensive line was getting great push - they all understood that on the snap, they were going to power straight to Tua. It's like each of them decided he was going to win, every time. The various replays people have posted showing Bernard and Hyde and Milano talking regularly pre-snap. They knew their assignments, they knew what they were looking at across the line. They were all tuned in. I worry that it was playoff football for the Bills - that it was such a must-win game that it's not sustainable. I don't think it is; I think they're just learning what it takes. I think it wasn't just Josh that showed he understood what it would take to win; I think we saw a team full of guys who decided that they were going to play at another level. I wrote somewhere, before the season began, that I think the Bills have a new kind of focus since the playoff loss to the Bengals. I think they've made up their minds, individually and as a team, that they're going to do what it takes to win every game, including postseason games. They are going to play every game with the intensity and focus that the game requires. Somehow, they stumbled badly out of the gate, but the last three weeks they've looked like a team on a mission. Against the Dolphins, I think they learned that they can focus, they can be intense, and that they can win any game. Diggs was celebrating on the sideline with his teammates, but it wasn't jumping-up-and-down overcome with happiness, like it was some kind of upset. He looked like he was talking to his teammates, telling them, "See, we can do this. This is what it takes." The perfect game against the Patriots was amazing - it was perfect. But the Dolphins game was something different; that game yesterday was a statement about what the Bills can be, it was a statement made by the players to the Dolphins, but most importantly to themselves.

The thing is, Virgil, that the league always is the same: 4 or 5 good teams, 2 or 3 really bad ones, and 25 teams struggling to get over .500. But the hype gets worse and worse. Watch any preseason game, listen to the local announcers, and they're saying what we used to say: if this guy and if that guy and if this comes together. If, if, if. I mean, Rodgers is great, but he's only one guy. Their offense was still a mess, bringing in Packer retreads so he had someone to throw to. The only point of the first half of the season is to unmask all the pretenders.

I bought a jet-ski.

YAC is one of those stats that create a lot of discussion but not a lot of insight. I've always thought that, but now it's pretty clear. Bills were a lousy YAC team, right? Well, yesterday, when Josh reduced his air yards, YAC went way up. Bills are currently 10th in the league in YAC. Yes, some receivers are naturally better at YAC than others, but as a team stat, it depends a lot on where your QB is throwing the ball. Hit your running back on the run, like Allen hit Cook yesterday, and you get lots of YAC. More completions means more YAC.

You're missing the point. I'll admit, I like the "look at us" aspect, but that's not why I do it. I do it to send a message the player and the player's family that I'm a Bills fan standing with them. Standing with Josh, standing with Damar, standing with Tre. They don't need me, of course, but it means a lot to people to know that other people care.

Thanks, Hap. That is exactly what I've been saying. I love the reference to "bottled lightning." That's what Allen is. And what I particularly like is that after Solak describes the new Allen, short balls, easy passes, he goes to say "And then, when the defense finally covers all the routes and gets pressure on the quarterback, the cork pops out of the bottle, and the lightning runs free. You've finally stopped the Bills offense, only to unleash the most most dangerous player on its roster: Allen doing whatever he wants to do." I think Solak is right on the money here. Beane and McDermott have built a starting roster of 21 guys who probably are the best 21 any team puts on the field. The 22nd guy is Allen, who makes magic like no one else.

I'm in. Thanks.

I was at that one. Don't remember any of it!

Thanks. I did that twice; I found it once before I published, didn't see the other one. I was writing while I was watching the Jets last night. I was disappointed that they didn't get it done last night.

Great stuff. Thanks. This is a great explanation of why Tua still looks like a college quarterback. He's deadly when everything goes right. If you think about it, none of the great current QBs is successful because they play like that. They are managing the pocket and finding a receiver, often on the second, third, or fourth read AND they have the arm to deliver the ball. Tua's succeeding because he doesn't have to do that, yet, but the time is coming. And when teams get fully on board about how to stop him, he will struggle. But, as you say, many of his throws are absolute things of beauty. Deadly accurate.

I think you're right about this. Bill are going with Benford and Jackson, both of whom can play, with Elam now working his way back into the rotation. The Bills will miss White, for sure, but they'll be fine. I feel so bad for White. What a shame. Did you watch Mac Jones? You've gotta be a REALLY smart thrower if you have a noodle arm like his. Allen is now learning to be a really smart thrower, AND he has an arm that can make the throws Jones dreams of.

When I started talking about completion percentage a week or two ago, I compared the Bills to the 49ers. They have unbelievable skill players, but the Bills aren't too shabby. What I said was that Allen has to play like Brock Purdy - just take the easy throw and let the skill players do their thing. The difference, of course, is that when you need your quarterback to make a play, the 49ers have Brock Purdy. The Bills have Allen.

The offense was simply beautiful. And so was the defense. It was high quality football.

That's interesting. In the Rockpile, I said something like the Bills aren't the biggest, aren't the strongest, aren't the fastest. But they are big, enough, strong enough, and fast enough. All across the lineup.

The Bills beat the Dolphins in Orchard Park on Sunday, 48-20. It was one of those games where the main statistics don’t tell the story. 24 first downs to 20, 414 to 393 total yards. Pretty even, huh? Some numbers give a better picture. Two takeaways to none. Four sacks to two. Nine QB hits to three. Whatever the stats say, ten minutes into the second quarter the Bills took control of the game and never let go. That’s when the Bills scored their third consecutive touchdown to open the game, and that’s when the Bills’ defense took over. The Dolphins couldn’t match that third touchdown, and before long it was 28-14, and then 31-14 to end the half. The Dolphins opened the third quarter with a touchdown, but the Bills simply weren’t letting them back into the game. It was a big game. A really big game. A Dolphins win and would have given them a two-game lead over the Bills in the AFC East. In the weeks before, the Dolphins had shown a seemingly unstoppable, quick-strike offense the likes of which the NFL hadn’t seen in years. Sean McDermott, his coaches, and his players were up to the challenge. They didn’t exactly shut down the Dolphins, except on third and fourth down, where the Dolphins were 3 for 10 and 0 for 3. The Bills were dominant. Because the Dolphins were going to get some points, the Bills didn’t need just the defense. The offense had to show up, and it did. Oh, boy, did it. The new Josh Allen, the guy who’s learned how to put up gaudy completion percentages by taking the easy throw, was deadly. He didn’t throw long unless he had single coverage – once to Diggs for a TD and once for an interference call, one TD to Davis, one incomplete to Shakir, maybe one or two more. The rest of his throws were easy-peasy, to all sorts of receivers, and the chains kept moving. I’ve been focused on completion percentage lately. It’s the key to success for Josh Allen and the Bills, and it’s no surprise that after three stellar outings, Allen leads the league in that category. Why is completion percentage so important? Because the more chances the skill position players have to make plays, the more yards the team gains, the more first downs the team gets. More first downs means even more touches for the skill players. It feeds itself. Why are touches for skill players so important? Because when the skill players get the ball, they have opportunities to make plays, and sometimes they do. It was 34-20, still a game, when Micah Hyde intercepted Tua. The Bills were on the verge of settling for a field goal when, on third and five, Allen took the easy throw to Harty in the left flat. Allen’s throw was short, and Harty had to go to his knees to make the catch, short of the sticks. He got up and made a nifty little run for the first down. Allen hit Diggs for the touchdown on the next play. Allen checking down to Harty, the smart play, and Harty’s run, were worth four points. The benefit of having a player like Allen is not to call his number as a regular part of the offense. What makes Allen great is that when all else has failed, he can make plays that no one else in the league, except Mahomes, can make. His short TD pass to Diggs over the middle was sweet and special. His touchdown run was vintage Allen. Oh, and when it comes to getting the ball to the skill players, no one throws the football like Allen. The touchdown to Davis was simply perfect. The Bills lineup was full of guys who made a difference: Ed Oliver. Over and over. Diggs. Oh, my. Bernard. Takeaway, again. And more. Murray. The guy can move the ball. Milano. Oh, my, too. Knox. Can you say run after catch? Kincaid. Josh’s new security blanket. Up and down the lineup, guys made plays. The Dolphins feature their speed. The Bills feature good football players, waves of them. Defensive linemen, offensive lineman, defensive backs, running backs, receivers, everyone. They’re smart, rugged, relentless. Not the biggest, but big enough. Not the fastest, but fast enough. Not the best, maybe, but more than good enough. I heard a coach say once that teams should break down the season into four quarters, and the objective is to go at least 3-1, every quarter season. After the loss to the Jets, and given what the Dolphins had been doing, 3-1 required a special effort. Mission accomplished. On to London. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

This correct. At this point in the season, DVOA represents how the team did last season, with some subjective adjustments.

I agree. Am I really going to worry that Davis got only two yards after his catch before he ran into the end zone?

so far, he's been more than either of us imagined

I didn't know what to expect of Harty but I agree, he's been disappointing. It might have something to do with Dorsey (sooner or later I always come back to Dorsey!). A guy like Harty has to get the ball in stride and in space that allows get up to speed before he has to deal with tacklers. Instead, he seems to get the same opportunities that didn't work for McKenzie, either. As for Bernard, I hate to bring up a sore subject, but I told you so. I mean, I had the same doubts that many people had here. What I also had, that many people didn't, is confidence in McDermott and Beane. If Bernard were as bad as we thought he was, McDermott and Beane would have done something to get help. They did nothing, and as I suspected, they did nothing because they knew the defense would be fine with Bernard in the middle. They brought in Kirksey to be a veteran backup, not to take the starting job. Did I expect him to be the guy we saw on Sunday? No. The Cover One video breakdown of him shows some amazing talent, both physical and mental.

Well, look. I don't really know or even have an opinion about whether under center is better and what the right mix ought to be. What I learned in this thread is that he's been much more effective when running play action, and I do believe that play action works better when you're under center, for reasons I've given: Fakes are more effective because you can hide the ball. The QB is in motion to make handoffs or fake them, and when the QB is in motion there's another opportunity to confuse the defense with misdirection. But I don't really care. All I want is for Allen to get his completion percentage consistently high, because I think that's what's needed to make the Bills really effective. And for Allen to do that, he has to take the high percentage throws more often. If he can do that better running play action, then great, run more play action. If he can do that running plays out of the shotgun, works for me. Just complete more passes. And I actually don't care if they take the threat of designed runs out of the offense. Allen shouldn't be running many designed runs. Where his running hurts teams is his scrambles. He'll scramble out of any offense, doesn't matter if he's under center or in shotgun. Allen's physical skills that will make him an all-time great are his arm, number 1, his ability to escape the pocket and throw on the run, number 2, his ability to stay upright in the pocket and not got knocked down easily, number 3, and his ability to run for first downs off scrambles, number 4. He is not going to win Super Bowls by being a running threat. Newton didn't win any, Vick didn't win any, Lamar hasn't won any. Quarterbacks win Super Bowls by being great throwers and field generals.

Well, first, one of the objectives is to have Allen run less, so I'm not in a hurry to run QB draws.