Shaw66

Yeah, I guess that's true, and teams do run all those actions out of the shotgun. Mostly what's different is the faking. Out of the shotgun the QB facing the line of scrimmage and can't hide the ball nearly as well. Also, the stretch runs are different, and the faking is different under center. When the QB runs left to fake the stretch run handoff and then rolls right, the QB's movement is a major part of the motion that misleads the defenders.

Yes, I may be leaning too far to the conservative side. Wouldn't be the first time. But you're arguing a bunch of things that (1) I don't agree about, and (2) neither of us actually knows, because we don't have the data. I would say the probability of completing that pass was around 50%. And whenever the ball is thrown into a crowd of defenders, there's a chance of interception. But I admit, I don't have the data. But I don't think there's any argument that a coach would prefer to be 2nd and five from the 14 rather than second and ten from the 19. Sure, first downs are tougher to get in the red zone, if you have a good offense, you should be able to get a first down after second and five, and that first down means you have three more plays to try to score the touchdown. The analytics guys know the probabilities of all of these situations. They know the probability of getting a touchdown from first and ten on the 19 if you throw a pass with a 50% likelihood of it being caught as compared to if you throw a pass with an 80% likelihood, and with the interception probabilities thrown in. Neither of us knows, but I feel quite confident that the smart play on first down is take the easy throw.

that's good analogy. You'd much rather save the out than gain the base. Why, because your chances of getting a run out of the inning are better if 100 times in a row you keep the man on second than if you try to stretch it.

I think the running game is what McDermott is willing to give to teams. It's always been like that with his Bills team. They get gashed occasionally in the run game. In this game, McDermott figures stopping the pass is the most important aspect of good defense, and he wants a pass defense that can stop the run as well as possible. Heck, he plays with a cornerback and two small linebackers. McDermott doesn't think that the average running team can run effectively enough against his defense to hurt him consistently. When he plays an especially good running team, he can't muscle up his line, but he tries to adjust the scheme to stop the run. Every once in a while Washington ripped off a good run, and it made momentarily disappointed in the defense. Then I told myself that that is what comes with this defense. You just hope when it happens, you stop it short of Dalvin Cook going the distance.

True, but I think when Josh sees Diggs in a small opening, he knows Diggs will make a good play on the ball. He doesn't know that about Knox. At the end of the day, athletic ability wins over size, I think. My real point is I don't think on first down in that situation you want Allen to throw to either of them. You're just less likely to get a touchdown out of that possession by throwing that pass than by taking a five-yard gain somewhere, because your probability of a first down is better at 2nd and 5 than 2nd and 10. The first down gets you three more plays. 3rd and goal or 4th and goal if you're going for it, okay, throw that pass. Before then, if you can get a first down, take what the play gives and try again. You're trying to score, sure, but the best way to score is to have a lot of chances to score. If you tell me in advance that my time will, 100% get the offensive rebound, then every shot is a good shot. Doesn't matter if I'm good or not, I should hoist it up first chance I get, because if I miss my team will get another shot anyway. Well, in football, there aren't offensive rebounds, but there are first downs, which give your team additional shots, just in a different way. Take the touchdown if it's there for the taking, but if it isn't a gimme, work on the first down. I was thinking about Steph Curry. He is a great half-court shooter, because he's a great shooter and he practices half-court shots. When it's the middle of the second quarter and he's bringing the ball up court, he doesn't just launch it from half court. If he does, what does he say to the coach? "I can make that shot, so it's a good shot." Coach says, "It's not the best shot." It's the same with Josh. Josh's coach says to him, "Yes, Josh, I know you can throw that pass better than anyone else in the league. We all get it. That just does not mean that throwing that pass is the best option at this time." Don't take the relatively low probability throw until there is a reason that high probability throw simply won't help.

It might be the right amount of aggression if you're throwing to a really good pass catcher, like Diggs. When you're throwing to Davis, you know what you're getting in pass catching. When you're throwing to Knox you what you're getting. With different receivers, you have a different probability of success. That's I keep saying the easy throw doesn't just mean check downs. The TD to Davis was an easy throw, because with single man coverage, Davis running free behind it, it's an easy throw. The throw to Knox was not an easy throw - he had defenders around him, and it was Knox catching. If it's Diggs, it might be the right throw. If it's Knox, find a way to get 5 or 6 yards, and maybe break a tackle.

For me, I think of him as not dependable because just doesn't seem to be a smooth (ah, there's that word, I get it know) pass catchers. What makes him good is that he's athletic enough to make tough catches - turns his body pretty well, is a pretty good hands catcher, survives the ground pretty well, AND he's a big tough guy. Not the biggest and not the toughest, but he can mix it up. But he's all like Diggs, seems to be able always to be able to get his body in position to make a play AND still have the focus to catch the ball like he's playing the backyard. The point of the comment was that it was Knox and not a pass catcher like Diggs, because if it's Diggs it's a higher probability throw. I don't think that's a knock on Knox. That's just recognizing that the guy's collection of skills make him valuable on the field even if catching everything thrown at him is not his greatest talent.

Ha! That's very interesting. I do think he will learn to take the easy throw. That's why I've always said that Josh is John Elway. Elway was just physically better most of the guys on the field - big and strong and fast and could throw. What made him almost unique as a QB he just said, "look, just give me the ball and I'll make it happen." He was a baseball phenom who could dominate football games. He was, in other words, a lot like Josh. All things considered, Josh is just a better athlete than everyone. Big enough to at least stand eye-to-eye with a lineman and say, "Okay, let's do. You and me." Fast enough to say to linebackers, "Sorry, you can't take that angle with me." With an arm that says, "Oh, yes, I CAN make that throw." Elway learned that even though he was THAT guy, he couldn't win games that weren't managed properly. He learned that there always would be times in the season when the game would demand that Elway be Elway, even when the game is managed properly. Think about the touchdown to Davis. Allen had been playing the game pretty much on script, take the easy throw, etc. Then, suddenly, Dorsey called a play and Davis could see the opportunity and knew how to run the route, and Josh knew, too, and that's when Josh being Josh took over and one of the most beautifully thrown passes you've ever seen dropped right into where it was supposed to be. That throw is makes Josh different. And the fact that he can do pretty much everything else that you might need on a football field. McDermott and Josh are too smart not to see that. McDermott can show Josh film of Favre, show him actual plays where Josh can see that Favre going off script made his team less effective and cost his team games. And film of Brady and show him that executing the whole thing with your brain, you can be great with just average physical skills. McDermott is challenging Allen to be the playmaker he is, to be Favre, and still play with his considerable native intelligence, or to be Brady, too. I think that's what Elway did.

I agree with this, but I view it a little differently. I think it's less about balance, or at least it SHOULD be less about balance, and more about taking the easy play every time. And I definitely include the TD to Davis in the easy-play category. For Josh, that was a high-percentage throw - single coverage, a step on the defender, and Josh can put it where it needs to be. Lately I've been saying the Bills should do what the 49ers do, which is to run their offense to get the ball in the hands of their skill players, over and over, and let them make plays. Purdy chooses the easy play, over and over, and he doesn't try to fit the ball into tight windows. He doesn't because he isn't that skilled, but the fact that Josh is more skilled doesn't mean he should be taking the higher risk throw. That's why I raised the throw to Knox. The way the offense works best is to increase the number of plays where your skill players have the ball. Just keep giving them the ball until you score. The problem with the throw to Knox was that relative to wherever the five-yard gain was (and I'm sure it was there somewhere), it was low percentage play, and choosing the low percentage play meant that the Bills only had two plays left to score a touchdown, instead of likely having five plays to score a touchdown. For example, with 15 seconds left in the game, and needing a touchdown from the 19, one reason that situation is desperate is that you only two or three more plays. You'd much rather five. Well, Josh was in a position to have five plays to make a touchdown, but he bet that opportunity on getting it all on one play. Fortunately, he didn't throw an interception, which is the possibility with a throw like that, but he also made it much less likely that he had only two more plays before they kicked the field goal. So, I don't think it's a question of balancing. I think it's a question of analytics. If you could calculate (and I think the Bills HAVE calculated) the likelihood of getting a touchdown by throwing that pass and compare it to the likelihood of getting a touchdown by checking down, I think we'd see that checking down is just the smarter play, because it makes it much more likely that you'll have up to five more plays to score. As I said, I think that the advantage that Allen gives the Bills is that his special talents mean that some throws are high probability completions for him and lower probability for most other QBs. That means that there are throws that are lower risk for him than for other QBs. But that doesn't mean that he should gamble on some throws that are higher risk, lower probability even for him. He should be taking easy throws all the time; it's just that more throws are easy for him than for most QBs.

For me, that's not a lot. Actually, what I meant is that there's not a lot to say that wasn't apparent to any Bills fan who watched.

I agree, and it's a good point, but my eye tells me there's a difference. Play action from the shotgun is the simple fake handoff to the running back standing beside or behind the QB. It's essentially a fake draw-play. Kelly and Thurman ran it all the time, but that was at a time when defenses hadn't adjusted yet to that style. Play action from under center is more threatening to the defense. For one thing, the QB makes some affirmative movements in order to execute the fake, movements that look exactly like a running play, and depending on what's being faked, it could be any kind of running play - pulling linemen, draw, power, off tackle, stretch play. It's hard to simulate all of that out of shotgun. So, I think, the defense is forced to respond to the urgency of the play-fake coming from the QB at the line of scrimmage. The actual fake also tends to be much more effective from under center. The play-fake on Josh's TD pass to Knox last week is an example. Josh had his back to the line of scrimmage with the ball tucked way into his belly while his other hand executed the fake. He and the running back passed so close to each other that it was really hard for the defense to see if he put the ball into the back's belly or kept it. The result was that when he rolled left he was left with very few defenders in front of him. You just can't fake like that out of the shotgun, because the ball always is in full view. And one other thing about playing under center. If you have a tall QB, and the Bills do, the QB can stand up and make the quick throw to the receiver running a shall inside slant. Or take a three-step drop and throw. The benefit of doing that has to do with geometry. If you're three yards behind the line scrimmage and throwing over the middle, fewer defensive linemen are in the line of sight of the QB than when you're six or seven yards behind the line. (Draw a picture and you'll see.) So being under center makes a few passing plays more effective. And two more things: Josh has a bad tendency to escape backward, which allows the edge rushers to slip their blocks. When Josh is dropping from under center, he naturally can't get as deep in the pocket, which will help him step up, rather than step back, when the rush comes. And it also helps Josh run a quick hitting draw play - two-step drop and burst up the middle. I can see a lot of advantages to having him under center.

Not a lot to say about the Bills rolling over the Commanders. Just a solid, dominant performance. Here are a few reactions: I would have liked a couple more touchdowns and a couple fewer field goals. I have no doubt Bernard has plenty of areas where improvement is required, but his football instincts/quick-twitch playmaking style is a refreshing change from Edmunds’ style. Benford had a few problems, but I like how he plays, too. Hard not to look good with five takeaways and holding the Commanders to 1 out of 9 on third down. That’s a pretty good formula. I’m loving the relentless pass rush. McDermott has been saying for years that he needed that kind of front four, and these guys are scintillating. No idea if yesterday was just a game, or a serious breakthrough, but Epenesa showed up. Also loving the running back rotation. Those three guys just keep moving the ball. Seems like every time the defense slows one guy, another comes in and makes a play. Offensive line was solid again protecting Josh. Another day of the new-style Josh. Most of the time, he just took the easy throw. 20-32 isn’t good enough for my taste, but he made it work. High completion percentage doesn’t make a team good, but it’s an indicator of a style of play that leads to success. It means the chains are moving. Early in the game we saw a perfect example of the old-style Josh hurting team performance. On the first drive, 1st and ten on the Commanders’ 19 yard line, Josh threw into a crowd to Knox in the endzone. It was one of those throws we’ve seen often from Josh, where he fires into a tight window and his receiver makes the catch. The play didn’t quite connect. Cook for one yard on second down, incompletion on third down. Field goal. Josh has to stop making that first-down throw. Third and ten, okay, but not on first down. Yes, we’ve seen him complete that throw, but it’s a 50-50 play, maybe less. I haven’t seen the All-22, but I’m sure there was a much higher percentage throw somewhere. There were too many defenders around Knox; someplace else there was open space. Take the open throw for four or five or six yards; then it’s second and five and everything gets simpler. From there, the Bills probably can run twice for the first down, and then they have three more plays from inside the 10. The Bills offense is good enough to keep taking the easy play. It moves the ball and it reduces turnovers. Eventually, defenses will adjust to try stop the relentless ball movement, and when that happens, Josh will hit someone on the run, as he hit Davis against the Commanders. Solid performance. Tua won’t throw four interceptions. But he might get sacked nine times! GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

That's an interesting take. The only top team that bucks the trend is the 49ers. I suspected that teams that run more under center also run the ball more, and that's true. It's not exactly a one-to-one correlation, but generally speaking, the teams that played most out of shotgun also passed the most. The 49ers were in the top half of teams with highest running percentage. Not sure what to make of this. I don't think that the Bills ought to play out of shotgun just because the successful teams do. Maybe it means that shotgun and passing is the best way to build an offense, but as Orlovsky suggests, some of it may have to do with the strength and weakness of your QB. For one thing, the shorter the QB, the more I'd think you'd want him in shotgun, because he needs as much help seeing the field as possible. Beyond that, some QBs may be better in one formation than the other. As Einstein's data showed, Josh seems to be much effective passing in play action (probably true for pretty much every QB), and that would be one argument in favor of running under center. As the commentators tell us every week, because it's true, if you can run the ball, then play action sucks in the linebackers and makes passing over the middle easier. It certainly helps to be able to have gimme throws for 12-15 yards over the middle. Orlovsky is just one voice, but I suspect this is an issue the Bills have listened to, or will. I'm sure they have the data already, which means they know how successful they've been each way, even broken down by down, distance, time of game, red zone, etc. Orlovsky seems to think there's a dramatic difference with Josh, and maybe there is. As for giving Josh an advantage when he runs the ball, maybe he does run better out of the shotgun, but the Bills offense will feature Josh running less and less. Josh's running edge will continue to be a factor, but primarily on scrambles and not designed runs. He's agile and mobile, and I think he probably can scramble off plays that start under center just as well as shotgun plays.

This is excellent. I have evolved into thinking about what the Bills are doing by recognizing that McDermott and Beane are building the team in the image they want. That's what I was saying to people this summer about Bernard. Lots of people were out-of-their-minds about the Bills having filled the hole at middle linebacker, and it finally occurred to me that they hadn't acquired anyone because they didn't think they needed anyone. Low and behold, 43 seems to be doing just fine. I think we have to assume that the offense is playing in the image of what McDermott wants. McDermott wants to be able to play ball control football, which means running and short passes, and that's what we're seeing. I also think they believe that explosive football is not sustainable. They don't believe, and I agree that the Dolphins will be scoring 70 in December. Not since the greatest show on turf as any team sustained an explosive offense. Look at the 49ers, with three exceptional skill players, and yet their offense is a ball-control offense. It's hard to argue with the formula: Play stifling defense most of the time, and when the offense gets the ball, score at the end of a six-minute drive. Occasionally, two minutes.

Thanks. That's really good stuff. More than I've seen. I think it's interesting about Allen's propensity to roll right down there. Yes defenses know that, but they're having trouble stopping it nonetheless. As I mentioned, the Bills have had a lot of success with the receivers crashing from the back to front of the end zone. Both receiver and QB can see the gaps quite well, so they know where they're going. I also think that they've told Allen to roll left more often. The Jets interceptions came on plays when he escaped left rather than right. I think they're trying to expand his game that way for exactly the reason you give. If he can be as effective going left as going right, the offense is that much more effective.

Exactly. In a sense, what we're saying is Allen hasn't reached his potential. His potential, which is almost limitless, gives his team an edge only if the rest of the team is contributing the way it should. It's up to Allen to get the whole offense functioning correctly by getting the ball to the playmakers. There are several teams who have a QB who can run the offense well, like Brock Purdy, but there are very few who run the offense and also have the physical skills Allen brings.

This is interesting. Thanks. There are two different things about his decision making. Different but related. One is INTs, and the other is incompletions. A five-yard completion is a much better outcome for the play than an incomplete 20-yard attempt. It's better almost regardless of the situation. As for the Jets game, I think that the interceptions, which were not good decisions, were an indication of his throwing generally as the game went on. That is, I'm pretty sure his incompletions also went up. That affects the team's ability to get first downs. In the Raiders game, I think Josh maintained his discipline throughout the game. He seemed almost maniacal about throwing it short. As for the riskiness of the touchdowns, I would explain the two TDs differently. I would guess that we've seen the TD to Davis ten times before. What the Bills do is have runners deep in the end zone and if Josh is in scramble mode, then the receivers break to gaps in the defense. That throw to Davis was a rocket, and he was coming back for the ball. Pretty much no receiver makes that catch if he hasn't practiced it with Allen. So, yes, it looked like a throw into a crowd, but I think Davis and Allen knew exactly what they were doing. In other words, it was less risky than it looked. As for Shakir, well, that's just Josh being Josh. I've been in this discussion about Allen in a few threads the past week. I think the objective is to get him to get the ball playmakers, on script, and avoid INTs and incompletions. Still, there are going to be half-dozen times during the game where Josh is forced to be the playmaker, that his, he's forced to do something that only Josh can do. The same as Mahomes - different skill set, but the real edge both teams have over almost the others is they have a guy who, when needed, can be a premier playmaker himself. Lamar Jackson, too. The throw to Shakir was one of those. You do not want to tell Allen not to make that throw because, well, yes, there's some risk, but the risk is less than you think, because it's Allen. It's like his high school basketball coach telling his team he doesn't want anyone passing behind his back, because it's risky and none of you can do it that well. Except Josh, he can pass behind his back, because, yes, it's risky, but it's less risky than you think, because it's Allen. (And, yes, I just made up the high school thing as an example.) I keep saying it: If Josh can continue to discipline his play in that way, and if Dorsey is giving them the right plays to run, the offense could be really, really good.

Yes, this point that you and Gunner are talking about is the key. I think Josh has to be disciplined, meaning he NEVER takes the risky throw, the hero-ball throw, unless the situation absolutely demands it. That is, unless it's fourth down and less than 10 seconds left in the game, and the throw is the only to get a TD or get into field goal position. The rest of the time, take the easy completion. Over and over, take the easy completion. And I agree about the Jets game. Josh's bad decisions were bad decisions simply because taking the chance wasn't necessary. And it isn't just the INTs. It's every time Josh goes down field to a covered receiver (except Diggs one on one). Almost every incompletion is a bad play. And occasionally, that simple completion that he takes instead of a downfield incompletion, turns into a big play because a skill player makes a play - breaks a tackle or makes a tackler miss, or simply takes advantage of the defender's mistake. Warner demonstrates it nicely. Dorsey's play designs have to give Allen that easy option every play, but those aren't really difficult play designs. That's what everyone is doing in the NFL all the time. But what about taking advantage of Allen's arm and his legs? Oh, that will still happen. He ripped some throws against Raiders. And you can see that even the THREAT of him running reshapes the defense a bit. Plus, there always will be plays where the receivers are covered, the protection breaks down, and Josh has to take off. On those plays, Josh will be Josh, but even on those, when he's outside the pocket looking downfield, he needs to take the easy throw. Never throw it into a crowd. I think there's a very simple barometer to measure how Josh is doing: Completion percentage. Josh should be completing 70 to 80%, or more. If he's doing that, he's taking easy throws, making first downs, and everything else will take care of itself.

Absolutely.

What Purdy knows how to do is run the game. His problem is that there are six to ten plays a game where his body can't deliver what the play demands. Allen doesn't have that problem. Allen needs to run games like Purdy does, and when he does, the Bills will be awesome. He did it against the Raiders, and the Bills dominated.

So, I watched the Giants and 49ers last night, and I did this. I imagined Josh Allen at QB, running that offense the way Purdy runs it, game-manager style. When Purdy consistently overthrew receivers deep, I imagined the way Allen would throw the same pass. I imagined Allen escaping the pocket when Purdy couldn't. There were a half dozen throws last night that Purdy failed to complete that are gimmes for Allen. The 49ers with Allen behind center would be unbeatable. And the 49ers offense moved the ball the way the Bills did on Sunday - methodically. Nothing fancy; just get the ball to the skill players on every down. Avoid downs when no skill guy has the ball in his hands. Samuel, McCaffrey, Kittle, other guys, over and over. Just give them the ball. Then, when the defense slips up, hit them with a big play. And, yes, their skill players are different, to be sure, and maybe better (it's amazing how all three of their big stars always get the extra yards), but Diggs, Davis, Knox, Kincaid, Cook and the role players are very good. The Bills even use their fullback/H-back/tight end the same way. Allen needs to get the ball in the skill players' hands every play. He needs to take the sure completion instead of the possible big play. Just take it every time. The biggest enemy in the Bills offense is the incompletion, because incompletions are plays where no skill player has a chance to make a play. People argue that asking Allen to play that way is taking the ball out of his hands, it's compromising his greatness. I don't think so. His total yards rushing will go down, but that's okay because everyone knows that running the ball is going to shorten his career. His passer rating will go up, because his completion percentage will go up, his TD/INT ratio will go up. The Bills' total yards on offense will go up, because every play that is not an incompletion will add yards to the offense. Everything will go up except hits on the quarterback.

Or maybe it was Nicholas Nickleby. One of those guys.

Sorry he's leaving. He was an important security blanket. But I like it when guys know their own minds. As he began to be clear about what his role would be in Buffalo (and as Bernard was showing that he is a real obstacle to getting back on the field), he must have had a frank conversation with himself. He had a nice career. I wish him well.

"It seems difficult," is a good way to put it. Yes, even Sunday, even though lots of drives ended it touchdowns. I can't really prove it, but I think defenses have a book on Allen on the Bills. 1. Do not let him throw long. 2. Do not let him run. A lot of zone defense helps accomplish both of those things. Teams were able to get away with deep drops on zones in part (I think) because Allen didn't take the easy throw, the short throw, unless as a last resort. Sunday, he was taking those throws. It seemed almost like he was looking for them. That gave the offense the look of struggling, because he was throwing what looked like check downs, over and over. I don't think that's really what was happening. I think Allen really drank the Kool-Aid before Sunday's game, and the Bills showed the Raiders (and the league) that they score more or less every time if the defense is designed to stop Allen and the big play. The Bills really crushed the Raiders with that game. Now, it's not all on Allen. Yes, I think he made decisions the way the offense demands. But I think the other change is the running game. The ball isn't in Allen's hands all the time now, because he isn't the running game. So, it wasn't just Allen taking the easy throw. It also was the Bills running the ball with their backs, consistently, with positive gains on enough runs to make running a consistent contributor to the offense. It goes back to what I said about skill players. I think the way modern offenses succeed is by giving your skill guys the ball as often as you can. The more plays your skill players have the ball, the better your offense will be. Until we saw the Bills Sunday, giving the ball to the backs hasn't been something the Bills have wanted to do. The backs weren't great, and the offensive line didn't get the job done. But on Sunday, the running backs consistently hurt the defense, because the backs are better and the line is better. So, in a sense, on Sunday the Bills had more skill players on the field than they have in the past, because they had skill players with the right skills. The other part of getting the ball to skill players more often is a higher completion percentage. Every completed pass is another play a skill guy has contributed, and every completed pass is a chance for a skill guy to make a play. It's why I compared them to the 49ers. So, yes, even Sunday the offense looked difficult. But I think that's primarily because the Raiders defense sold out to stop the pass and stop Allen. Defenses wil adjust, because the Bills are saying to everyone, "If you don't stop our short stuff, you'll never get the ball. We can run 6-7-8-9 minute drives, and we can score in the red zone." Once defenses start looking for ways to stop the short stuff, the things that make the offense look easy - the 15-20 yard completions to open receivers, Allen breaking off a 20 yarder because the defense wasn't looking - will come back. In a way, I think what is happening is something that McDermott said several years ago - that he intended to build an offense that attacks every part of the field, sideline to sideline, from the line of scrimmage to the opponent's goal line. Allen and John Brown and Diggs gave him a way to attack deep up the sidelines. Davis became useful medium deep over the middle. Beasley helped shallower over middle, but he was limited in some ways. Allen wasn't good throwing the touch passes in the flat when he first got to Buffalo, and even now that he throws that ball well, he hasn't really had players who could do much of anything out there. Now, it's different. Kincaid is full-fledged threat in the middle, and he's more effective in the flat that the other tight ends. McKenzie wasn't versatile enough in the flat or over the middle. Cook is a threat in the flat, better than Singletary, and Murray is, too. The run game can attack the line of scrimmage. In short, the Bills look like they have what McDermott wanted, and the offense that can attack everywhere. To bring it back to Allen, he now doesn't have to be the answer on every play. He just has to get the ball to all the other guys. He's extraordinarily talented, physically, at doing that; he just as to keep taking the easy play, over and over. And then, every once in a while, on a play here and there, things won't go right, and Superman will save the day. As I said, what he needs to be is Brock Purdy most of the time - just run the play as designed, and get the ball to all those guys who can catch and run. Then, every once in a while, do something that Brock Purdy can only dream of.

Thanks. Good points. I don't think it's just the turnovers. I think he makes the game more difficult for his teammates. I wrote earlier about making the most of the skill players. I think, for example, the run-after-catch stats that people keep citing are an example of how he may make the game more difficult. Skipping the easy completion for the tougher throw is another. I think he can have easier wins by executing the offense better, by giving his playmakers more opportunities. I understand I may be full of it. I think Allen will get better at his decision making, and that's when I think he and the Bills will have real success.