Shaw66

I thought he should go for it, but I'm never against taking the points that are available. Hauschka was a good bet. A lot of people here ALWAYS want to go for it. They remind me of my son who used to run the fake punt on Madden every fourth down. There's always a rationale for going for it, but just because you can come up with an argument in favor of going for it doesn't mean that the argument is right. In this case, however, I think the odds suggest that the Bills should have gone for it. I think you have to figure Hauschka was only a 50-50 proposition. Yeah, he made a lot early in the year, but it's tougher in winter weather. I think you have to figure making it is also 50-50, even though the Bills haven't been too successful on fourth down this year. (I think they haven't been successful on several desperation fourth downs, not the typical fourth and 1 in the middle of the game - remember, the Bills generally didn't go for it on those fourth and 1s.) So if you're 50-50 either way, the downside of not making it is the same. The upside, however, is why I think you have to go for it. If you make the field goal, you have three. If you make the first down, presumably you're getting closer to the goal line and the chances you get at least 3 start getting better. And of course your chances of getting 7 go up. But I think it's a closer call than some people think.

Of course it's more complicated. But I'm sure it's a factor. NBA stars get favorable calls - it's almost like the ref is thinking "if it didn't go in, Durant must have been fouled, because he makes them all."

I do have to say this in defense of all the people who make these decisions. There is a clear, and I think natural, bias in favor of the good team over the bad team. There is an assumption in the back of everyone's head that the players on the good teams make the plays and the players on the bad teams don't. So if maybe it's interference, Cooks gets the call and Hyde doesn't. I think it's a natural, unconscious decision. These are the Bills so that pass to Benjamin must have been incomplete. These are the Patriots, so that 4th down play must have been successful. It's another reason why the evidence to overturn a call has to be conclusive.

Here are some things from the NFL rules: "A Running Play ends: (a) When the ball is declared dead; (b) When a runner loses or relinquishes possession by a Fumble or a backward pass; or (c) When a player of either team throws an illegal forward pass beyond the line of scrimmage or when there is not a line of scrimmage. "(d) The Dead Ball Spot: The spot at which the ball became dead." "FORWARD PROGRESS. The Forward Progress of a runner or airborne receiver is the point at which his advance toward his opponent’s goal ends and is the spot at which the ball is declared dead by rule, irrespective of the runner or receiver being pushed or carried backward by an opponent." (note that this rule could be written more clearly, but we know what it means - the offense gets the benefit of forward progress if the defense pushes the ball carrier back, but the offense DOES NOT get the benefit of forward progress if the offense retreats from the forward progress point.) "A Down is a period of action that starts when the ball is put in play (3-2-3) and ends when the ball is declared dead (7-2-1)." "ARTICLE 1. DEAD BALL DECLARED. An official shall declare the ball dead and the down ended: (a) when a runner is contacted by an opponent and touches the ground with any part of his body other than his hands or feet. The ball is dead the instant the runner touches the ground. A runner touching the ground with his hands or feet while in the grasp of an opponent may continue to advance; or Note: If, after contact by an opponent, any part of a runner’s leg above the ankle or any part of his arm above the wrist touches the ground, the runner is down. (b) when a runner is held or otherwise restrained so that his forward progress ends." Okay, you have to put all of that together. Fundamentally, the spot of the ball is the place where the ball is where the ball is declared dead. The exception is forward progress, which makes the spot of the ball the farthest forward point to which the ball carrier had moved the ball before the ball carrier is pushed back by the defense. The ball is dead when the runner is down or the ref otherwise declares the ball dead. On the play in question, the ball carrier clearly thrust the ball forward and then pulled it back - he didn't keep his arms extended. So the ball going backward was not caused by the opponent, the Bills, moving it back. Now, I'd have to see it again - it may be possible that the Bills pushed him back some, but most of the movement of the ball backward was caused by the ball carrier, not the Bills. So the question becomes where was the ball when the ball carrier's knee or other part of his body (except feet and hands) touch the ground? Or, if they didn't touch, where was the ball when some official stopped the play. If either of those events happened at the exact instant the ball carrier reached the ball forward, then he gets the spot as far as he extended the ball. But if either of those events happened at any other time, he doesn't get the spot based on the reach. I don't think it was possible in the replay to determine when the knee or some other part of the body was down. I never saw a clear view of that actual touching. So you can't possibly overturn the call on the field by ruling that the knee was down at the exact instant necessary to give the ball carrier the full extension of his reach with the ball. If there isn't conclusive evidence that his knee touched at exactly the right time, you can't overturn the call on the field. If the play ended because the ref blew the whistle at the absolute exact instant when the ball was at its farthest forward point, then the spot is there. I don't recall a replay where you could hear the whistle, but I'm pretty sure the whistle came AFTER the ball had reached out and pulled back. So the play didn't end with the ball at the farthest forward point, it ended later, after the ball carrier had retreated from the farthest point forward, so the ball has to be spotted where the ball was after he pulled it back. Breaking the plane is irrelevant here. Breaking the plane applies only at the goal line, because as soon as the ball breaks the plane the play is over. (The ball is dead "when a touchdown, touchback, safety, field goal, or Try has been made." "A touchdown is scored when: (a) the ball is on, above, or behind the plane of the opponents’ goal line (extended) and is in possession of a runner who has advanced from the field of play into the end zone.") So the ball is dead when the ball gets to or past the goal line, and the play is over. But in this case the ball isn't dead until the knee is down or the ref says it's dead, and it's almost certain that neither of those things happened at the exact instant when the ball carrier had pushed the ball forward to its farthest point. Since there was no clear evidence that the ball had passed the line to gain at the instant the play ended, the call on the field had to stand.

Correct. Can't overturn the call on the field either way. And I agree that once they have to look and look and look, it just isn't conclusive enough to overturn.

Correct. The intention of replay is to correct the obvious incorrect call. That was anything but obvious. And the 4th and 1 reversal was worse. There they didn't even know the rules.

For sure.

I saw what you saw, but the right call there was to conclude that there wasn't enough evidence to overturn the call on the field. When he did secure the ball, it still wasn't clear that Benjamin's foot was off the ground. It was really close, and if I had to bet my life I'd say his foot was off the ground. But there was not a clear look that showed conclusively that his foot WAS off the ground, and without clear evidence, they're required to up hold the call on the field.

That's interesting to me, because it's seemed clear for a couple of years now that if the ball carrier is tackled or goes out of bounds where he's in range of the sticks and where the spot is tough to be precise on, they spot so there's a first down. Over and over they do it. I'm sure that they've been told to spot in favor of giving the first down, and I'd suspect it's for the same reason you say they should rule in favor of the big play. Yes, and they're doing everything they can to prop them up. Don't kid yourself - they do a lot of polling, and they know why people are watching or not watching. If whacking the Pats would be good for ratings, you'd see them whacking the Pats. There's a reason Gronk got a only a one-game suspension, and I'd bet the reason is that their polling tells them more people watch when the Pats are winning, and probably also that more people watch when Gronk is playing. The NFL didn't want him off the field.

I know how you feel, but the only thing that matters is the ratings. The NFL knows they aren't going to get everyone to watch. Look at major league baseball. Purists like pitchers duels, but the ratings say fans like home runs. So MLB turned a blind eye to all the drugs and let the home run totals explode. Ratings went up. Then MLB got caught and couldn't fight the publicity, so they had to shut down the drugs. Ratings dropped. So what happened? MLB juiced the baseballs, they hit more home runs in 2017 than any time in history. Ratings went up. Does MLB care about the purists? Yes, but not if the purists are getting in the way of ratings. The NFL is no different. They're in trouble. They're dealing with concussions, violence, kneeling, all sorts of things. If promoting the Pats helps ratings, the NFL definitely is going to do it. And if as a result you think the game is unwatchable, they really don't care, so long as more people like the show they're putting than people like you leave.

Me too. Next season. Bills have taken the next step and Brady is over the hill. I think he clearly looks like he's slipping now, and I'm guessing next season we'll start to see the serious decline. He isn't nearly as accurate as even a year ago, and I think the league is finally catching up to their passing scheme. The Bills showed yesterday that you have to take away Gronk and be smart how to play the rest of their average receivers. If you can do that and have a pass rusher or two who actually hit him, he's becoming beatable. Next season.

Ridiculous.

I think there's a good deal of truth in this. The NFL, like any other successful business, is well tuned into what helps and hurts viewership. I heard someone say once that baseball likes having the Yankees. It makes baseball a long-running morality play, with Goliath always looming. People like that story, and they really like it when some David comes along and knocks them out. Same with the Pats. NFL loved the two Giant wins over the Pats in the Super Bowl, they loved the Pats wins over Atlanta and Seattle. It wouldn't be nearly as interesting if Titans had come from behind to beat Atlanta. The NFL likes having a team on top. And I think they like it even better if the team has a little bit of evil attached to it, which the Pats do. Brady just isn't as likeable as Peyton, Belichick not nearly as likeable as Dungy. So they're easy to dislike a little. The cheating doesn't hurt, either. The league knows what sells and what doesn't. The Pats sell, so the league isn't going out of their way to make it difficult for the Pats.

Wow. Second worst in the league on 4th down. I didn't realize that. 13th in attempts and second worst in conversions. And this is supposed to be a team that specializes in running the ball. Given that, I'm with you. Kick it and make it. Pats are going to be ready to stop the run, and the Bills haven't been good in that situation, so kick it. Make it a 4 point game.

This is an Important point. I talked about it after the first Pats. Besides being better prepared and playing mistake free, they are physical every play, all game long. I marvel at Belichick's greatness. His team's are great at every aspect of football.

During the game I thought they got 4th and 1 overturn of the call on the field correct and didn't think much about it. But people are absolutely right about this - breaking the plane is not the rule on a first down. Outside the end zone, the ball is spotted where the ball is when the ball carrier is down by contact. The only exception is when the ball carrier is pushed backward by the defender before going down, then the ball carrier gets his forward progress. On that play it seemed completely clear that the ball carrier thrust the ball forward and then pulled it back. It's the same is if a receiver catches the ball, crosses the line to gain, then cuts back to avoid a tackler and gets dropped behind the line to gain. No first down. So unless it was clear that the runner was down at the exact instant when he thrust the ball out, he doesn't get that spot. And there was no way to tell when his knee actually was down; it could have been down before he thrust the ball out. So the play has to stand as called on the field. The only other argument could be that he thrust the ball out and then the Bills pushed him back, but I didn't see any evidence of that. As for whether it made a difference, we'll never know. But the Bills had just scored to open the second half, and this play meant the Bills had stopped the Pats on their first possession of the half. That's big. And having the lead in the second half is big. Especially when you put it together with the Benjamin call, that's a seven point swing at an important point in the game. Bills should have been up 7 with the ball half-way through the third quarter. Everything could have been different after that.

I don't talk much about play calling because I think there is more or less no way to know what's good play calling and what isn't. If the plays work, they were good calls and if they didn't, they weren't. But they work or don't work mostly because of execution and matchups - catching a team in the wrong defense for the play you have called. Unless you know the Patriots' defensive tendencies down to every last detail, you or I can't know if a play call was good or not. Same with decision making. Coaches make dozens and dozens of decisions during a game, and they get some wrong every game. They have their philosophy about it, and it either works or it doesn't work on a particular play. I think, for example, that in the first three quarters, you take the points the game is giving you. You kick the field goal instead of going for it near the goal line. Bills went for it, didn't make it, and I thought they'd made a mistake. But then Poyer intercepts and having left the Pats deep in their own territory turned the decision into a winner. The 50-yarder, I agree they should have gone for it. Too long a kick in challenging weather. The downside of the missed kicked and a failure on fourth down is about the same. The odds of making the first are better than making the kick. Still, I'm not going to argue with McDermott about it. I'm going to argue about the style and philosophy of their offense. That's what makes them beatable, not whether he decided to go for it on fourth down.

This and what Maineiac said are both accurate. I mean, he threw some nice passes. He missed on some. Brady threw some nice passes and he missed on some. But you just had the feeling that Tyrod was not going to deliver, that he couldn't deliver. I felt that way most of the game, but I exploded at the TV when he took the sack. It was SO amateurish. Everyone gets sacked once in a while, but the good ones don't get sacked at that moment. Everyone watching knew that that was the critical moment in the game. The Bills looked like they could play with the Pats. The Pats had just taken the team. This was the moment of truth - could the Bills answer? Meaning are the Bills up to the test? Taylor answered question in one colossally stupid play, killing the drive on the very first play. Four years on the bench in Baltimore, three years starting in Buffalo and he looks like JP Friggin Losman. Taylor didn't lose the game. The Pats beat the Bills. But the game would have been different with a real QB and a real passing attack.

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66 No Match for the Patriots It’s a point that’s been made many, many times by many, many Jets, Dolphins and Bills fans: If you’re in the AFC East and you don’t play home games at Foxboro, it’s tough to make the playoffs. You have to go 10-4 against the rest of your schedule, because you aren’t beating the Patriots, not when it matters. Every season, one or two or three mediocre teams, teams with lots of flaws, make the playoffs. They make it by winning a couple of close games that could have gone the other way, hitting a little hot stretch, losing a few ugly games where they look like anything but a playoff team, getting lucky with injuries. And they make it by not playing in the AFC East, by not having those two more or less automatic losses on their schedule. The Bills could have been one of those teams this season, and if a long line of dominoes falls just right next week, they could be. But it’s a long shot, and for the Bills longshot is spelled B-E-L-I-C-H-I-C-K. Belichick’s teams are consistently among the very best in the league, and only the Bills, Jets and Dophins have to play them twice a year. Baltimore and Tennessee didn’t play the Pats at all this season, and Carolina and Atlanta, the other two wild card teams, each played the Pats one. Carolina’s there only because they got a 48-yard field goal as time expired against the Pats. So that’s just crummy, that the Bills have to play the Patriots twice each year. On the other hand, that’s the hand they’re dealt, and it doesn’t do any good to cry about it. It just means that to make the playoffs the Bills have to be better, probably one game better, than one or two of the AFC wildcard teams. So, be better. So, what happened this time? Pretty much the same things that happen whenever you play the Patrlots. Belichick takes away what his opponent does best, and he did it Sunday. Yes, Shady, because he’s Shady, had some highlight reel carries, but in the end Shady wasn’t going to beat the Patriots. Belichick wouldn’t let him. Job one for the Patriots was stop the run, and they did it. Okay, if the Bills knew the Pats would stop the run, the game was in Tyrod Taylor’s hands. Tyrod’s just not that good, especially with a limited receiving corps. If the Pats are selling out to stop the run, the QB’s job is to slice and dice the secondary, and Taylor didn’t do it. Missed some long, missed some short, and looked like a raw rookie getting sacked for a 15-yard loss on what may have been the most important play of the game. The Pats had just scored to take the lead, and if the Bills were going to prove they belonged on the field with the best in the league, this was the time. The offense had to answer; instead, Taylor took the sack that answered any questions anyone might have had about the outcome of the game or Taylor’s future in Buffalo. Ugly. Unbelievably ugly. One characteristic of the Patriots is that they get better as the game progresses. You may look good against them on your first possession, maybe you second, but over the course of the game they find the answer to whatever you’re doing and you’re done scoring. On offense, it’s the same. You stuff them for a possession or two, or a quarter or two, but gradually they figure it out, and by sometime in the second half, they’re moving the ball at will. We saw it Sunday. Another characteristic of the Patriots is that they crush you with whatever part of their offense you DON’T focus on. Yes, they take away what you do best, and then you struggle. But when you take away what THEY do best, they just beat you another way. Brady wasn’t all-pro on Sunday, in part, apparently, because the Bills pass defense is THAT good and because the Bills took Gronk out of the game. So the Patriots ran the ball, and the Bills had no answer. The Bills weren’t ready for another Pats staple, the quick snap to catch the defense with too many men on the field. Way too many. Or for the quick snap before the defense can set, followed by the QB sneak or a simple dive play. Nothing’s new. Of course, a loss to Patriots wouldn’t be complete without the Patriots benefiting from some outrageous officiating, rule interpretations, or whatever. The catch rule is stupid and cost Clay a touchdown (on the ball he should have held when he hit the ground). The replay situation is out of control; after ten minutes of studying the Benjamin TD, it’s probably true that the pass was incomplete. But that’s not how the rule is written. If the call on the field isn’t clearly wrong, the call on the field standards. Not in a Patriots game. Oh, and let’s be sure to give the Pats a generous spot or two – the refs are always good for a couple of those. Maybe the Bills will sneak into the playoffs, and that would be great, but they aren’t a good team. The offense just isn’t good enough. Still, I like where the Bills are going. McDermott preaches all the fundamentals, both technically and emotionally. His team is prepared, executes, and doesn’t quit. As he loads the roster with guys who fit his scheme, they’ll get better. And he needs a QB who can throw, or an offensive coordinator who knows how to throw, or both. Now, let’s beat the Dolphins, just for the fun of it. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

Waves in a light breeze.

That's interesting. Thanks.

So, you don't want the bottom half of his list. And Cousins isn't on it because he's too old. And some of the top half of his list will bust. Shows how few really good QBs there are.

That's a great story. Probably took a little courage for your neighbor to speak up when he thought it was a confederate flag. Good think you're not a Raiders fan - he might have thought you were a nazi.

I'd guess that the Pats play EVERY team better the second time around.

Actually Taylor's 4th quarter stats are just fine. In fact people complain that when the Bills are down two scores he pads his stats. The problem is either Taylor is good but the coaches are stubborn and narrow in their outlook or Taylor isn't good and so the coaches limit his throwing. I trip l it's mostly the former.