Shaw66

No guarantees, but I predict that when Allen comes back we're going to be wondering how come Benjamin and Jones and the other receivers all of a sudden got better.

That's what I see. And as I've said, I like that he's had a few weeks off to decompress and now will be able to come back and get a few more weeks of on-field experience. It wasn't by design but it's almost a perfect way to go through a qb's rookie season.

Frankly, I think the accuracy claims are overblown and maybe even imaginary. First, an accuracy problem is part of the conventional wisdom that followed Allen out of college. I don't think it was very well supported by the evidence then. Second, I don't see the accuracy problems when I watch him. I DO see him having some touch and delivery issues on short balls. He hasn't yet figured out how to dial down velocity without underthrowing some balls. I'll admit that I don't know for a fact that he can solve that problem, but it looks to me like he can. Third, I've seen him deliver a lot of remarkably accurate throws. He may have a problem with CONSISTENCY, in that he doesn't make accurate throws often enough. Fourth, I've seen him do so many positive things, including with his legs, that whatever accuracy problems I've seen do not seem to be fatal or even near-fatal in terms of his ability to be a good quarterback in the NFL. We all get hung up by what we see from the greats. We tend to think Allen can't make it because he doesn't have Brees-type accuracy. Well, Elway didn't have Brees-like accuracy, but he an Allen-like arm. Every QB is different, every QB combines different characteristics. If the entire basket of characteristics is, collectively, enough to succeed, great, the guy succeeds. If it isn't enough, he doesn't. My point really is that when I look at the basket of skills Allen has shown us so far, I don't see anything or things that are so bad that I don't think he can make it. I like what I see.

That play was incredible. Beyond that, I don't see the guy making bad decisions. Yes, he isn't seeing all of the opportunities downfield, and I hope and expect that will improve. But he isn't getting fooled by what he is seeing. I haven't seen him making decisions like Peterman's pick-six in Houston or like Anderson's pick-six against the Patriots. And he IS making some good decisions and he has the physical skill to deliver, as he did on the throw to Benjamin that you're talking about. He has the ability and uses it to get out of the pocket. He's shown that he's already pretty good at deciding WHEN to get out of the pocket. He keeps looking downfield, and he seems to have a pretty good idea of where he's going to find receivers as the patterns break down. That, too, he should get better at. And he has the arm to deliver the ball to where it needs to be. Consider, for example, the play against the Bears where Peterman scramble left, saw Benjamin open, had to stop scrambling, set his feet and then throw. In the meantime, Benjamin had to move, so he broke deep and was open in the end zone. Peterman floated the ball to him and Benjamin was hung out to dry. Could have caught it, but I don't blame him for dropping it. He was crushed. I thought immediately about what Allen would have done on that play. He would have completed the pass. Either he doesn't have to stop and get set, he just flips it out there like Aaron Rodgers would have. Benjamin would have caught the ball at the 20, first down, keep playing. OR, Benjamin would have broken for the end zone, Allen would have gotten set and delivered a bullet to Benjamin, who would have caught the ball and the ref's two arms would have signalled touchdown before any defender could get there to hit him. Allen has the tools, and he's been learning the things he needs to learn.

I think that if you put Josh Allen on the Chiefs he plays like Mahomes. That coach and that talent create an entirely different environment for the QB. Question is when will Allen see talent and a coach like that in Buffalo?

I agree about Houston. I'm high on Allen. I think he sees the field pretty well for a rookie. Maybe to put a finer point on it, I think he sees the risks pretty well for a rookie. I don't think he sees all the opportunities yet. But I think he sees the risks, and I don't think he throws a pick six to lose the game. And I agree with those who suggested that his injury may have been a blessing in disguise. He's seen the field, and now he's had a break to study, to consolidate what he knows and add to it by watching film and watching things go wrong with the other two QBs. He hasn't had the pressure of game prep. Now he will get to come back, but his new knowledge to work for a few weeks, then get the off season to consolidate and grow some more. Then a full set of OTAs and training camp as the starter. It's better than what Darnold and Mayfield are going through, just grinding through week after week with failures piling up and no time to step back, take a breath and get recharged. But as we've been discussing in these posts, he's the only hope. If he can't put it together for next season, along with some decent offensive coaching, we're going to be back to wash, rinse, repeat.

I think it's a little of both - they were making roster changes to continue to move out contracts of guys that didn't fit, and they've also been surprised. During the off-season McDermott said something like "we're going to get worse before we get better." He clearly said it in connection with expectations of some that the Bills would make the playoffs again this season. He didn't explain why, but he'd already lost Wood and I think he knew he was losing Richie. So I don't think McBeane are surprised that they're losing more than winning. I think they're surprised they aren't around .500 and surprised they're getting blown out. I would guess they expected Miller/DuCasse to take a bigger step forward the right tackle solution to be better. They probably also thought that between Groy and Bodine, they would be okay at center. I think the line's actually been stepping up in pass protection lately; it's the run game that is horrible. I think they expected the wideouts to progress as you suggested (and I think they have). And they expected they'd be better at QB. I think Benjamin's return to form and Jones's progress are masked by the fact that the QBs are doing nothing for them. And it's at QB that McBeane deserve the most criticism. Allen looked like he might save their bacon, but then he got injured. In retrospect, Beane taking the only QB left after the free agent QB musical chairs was a mistake. The mistake was compounded, badly, by assuming they could do with McCarron altogether. That happened because, for the second season in a row, McDermott badly misjudged Peterman's ability to get the job done. As I said in a post up above, the one thing that may save next season is Allen. Give him the last five games this season to build on what he's learned playing and watching. Bring in some appropriate help on the line and at receiver, keep McCoy and Ivory (deal with them the following year). A good QB can make a big difference. Give him decent protection and get the run game going, and this could all look different. Of course, the other question is whether Daboll has any idea how to build a modern offense. I simply have no answer there.

As I've been saying all year, I think coaching is more important talent, so I'm generally on board with you. However, the one position where a talent upgrade can make a real difference is quarterback. I want to see Allen sit this week and return after bye. Let's see how much better the offense gets with him back there. I think you and I might be surprised. As an example, imagine how much better the offense would have looked with Fitzpatrick instead of Anderson and Peterman. Fitz ain't a star, but he knows how to play the position. So, I'm waiting.

Right, on both counts. What Bucky and Dully never understood is how far out of bounds their behavior was, both in terms of quality journalism and human decency. They're now reaping what they sowed. Still, it's petty. The Pegulas essentially ran them out of the News, which the News didn't have the stones to do on their own. That should be enough.

Maybe I need to dial it all back a bit, as I said to Deek. I just looked at Football Outsiders, curious about where the Bills defense ranks. According to Football Outsiders, the Bills have the second best defense in the league. That made me interested in who is first. Turns out the Bears are first. And that is another explanation for why the Bills were dismantled on Sunday. Not only to the put the worst offense in the league on the field, but they were up against the best defense. Nine points against the Bears is a moral victory for the Bills offense.

Wow! That puts it all together in one place. Thanks. Your comment about free agents not being interested in Buffalo is telling. Watching stats decline. Not that he was here on McBeane's watch, but after his first two seasons in the league TO had only season below 1000 yards when he played in 16 games, and that one season was in Buffalo. Well, Deek, this is a very good point and maybe I should calm down. However, the things I point out in my post still bother me. They have less to do with who the QB than whether the team is prepared to play in the modern NFL.

I liked Gailey. When he left, he said he'd coached in a lot of cities and the Bills were the only one of his former teams he'd always root for. Quality guy. As for your analysis, I think you make fair points. People complain about the Bills talent, and it certainly isn't top-end talent, but most of the talent on the field is marginal NFL talent. There are very few guys who don't deserve to be playing somewhere in the league.

I'd like to think it was cooperative decision making. I'd like to think, because it's the only justification that makes even a little bit of sense, that they thought they had enough talent on board on the offensive line to make it through the season. Wrong judgment, but at least that would be consistent with their desire to build through the draft. I'd guess that McD convinced Beane that Peterman was for real, and together they decided in that case they didn't need a backup. There simply is no question than McDermott has consistently mis-evaluated the level of Peterman's ability. But even if what I'm guessing went on is true, it's pretty obvious that those were the wrong decisions. Losing your two best offensive linemen and trading away another (Glenn), together with drafting a QB and a bunch of defensive players clearly was not the correct formula. None of that causes me to change my fundamental point: whoever the 53 are, they've been poorly coached.

Whenever I take a step back and look at what's happening, I'm amazed. This is a remarkably bad team. It defies logic. How can you have a defense that good and get blown out that badly, over and over again? How can scoring a touchdown be as rare as an unassisted triple play? How can a team supposedly based on discipline and organization have all those penalties? How can your talented rookie quarterback be hoping that he'll wake up tomorrow and discover that it's all been a dream and he actually was drafted by the Saints? I do feel sorry for Nate. I don't generally subscribe to the theory that playing a QB too soon is a career can ruin him, but I can't see how he'll ever be confident enough in his game to realize his future, which was to be a decent journeyman backup. I give him a lot of credit for having the courage to even throw the ball.

I think half of the coaches in the league, given the Bills in July, would not have put up the string of ugly losses that we're witnessing. I don't know if the Bills would be winning, but they wouldn't be the laughingstock of the league. Half of the coaches in the league would have told Beane to cut Peterman and keep McCarron.

I agree that's what's going to happen. McBeane definitely get a third year. But if next year looks like this year, one or both will be gone. You know that if Chan Gailey were the coach, Peterman never would have seen the field. Chan cut Trent Edwards, and Peterman makes Trent look like a borderline HOF player.

I don't think so, but you may be right. But if you're the Pegulas and McDermott walks into your office and says Beane has to go, and Beane then walks into your office and says McDermott has to go, whom do you believe? If I'm the Pegulas and someone has to go, it's McDermott. Beane at least got me Allen.

You're right. There is no apology owed. It's not like McDermott and everyone else isn't trying. Still, that's how I felt. It doesn't feel like it to the team, but thousands of fans FEEL like they're members of the team. And we're upset the same way Kyle Williams probably is upset, or Jerry Hughes, or LeSean McCoy. They're not happy, and we're unhappy in the same way. Williams and Hughes and McCoy aren't owed apologies, either. But everyone of us agrees - this sucks.

You know, I hate to sound like I'm entitled, because I'm not, but that's how I felt. You know what I wanted to have happen? I wanted Beane to tell McDermott that Beane would handle the post-game press conference. I wanted to Beane to stand up there and tell us HE was embarrassed and HE is going to do something about it. Don't fire McDermott, but just by being there, it would send a message to McDermott. The message is "if you can't change this, I will get someone who can." That's what the fans deserve to hear.

It's interesting to me that you've seen articles praising Daboll. I don't see it, but maybe the technicians do, and that's good. And of course, as talent improves some things will get better. Losing Wood and Incognito hurt, for sure. But that isn't what I'm talking about. I'm talking McDermott failing at the stuff he says is at the core of his process. Things like continual evaluation and training of players to get them to perform. His evaluation of Peterman when he benched Taylor was clearly wrong. His evaluation of Peterman when he started him in game 1 this year was clearly wrong. McDermott failed. His evaluation was wrong, twice. That says McDermott isn't doing his job. I heard somewhere that the Bills have 40 first and second year players on the roster. That's 40 guys McDermott wanted. He's obviously cleared out the guys he didn't want. That means the roster of full of the kind of players that McDermott wants. Maybe not as talented as he wants, but the kind of guys he wants. They say they select their players for character. Okay, if he has a roster full of his kind of guys, and if his mantra is discipline, do your job, play smart, etc., why are the Bills #3 in the league in total penalties against and #2 in the league in total penalty yards against? (Part of it is that the Bills haven't had their bye yet, but there are a half dozen or more teams who haven't had their bye.) Why is it that McDermott supposedly has the kind of guys he wants and he hasn't been able to teach them to play disciplined football? That says McDermott isn't doing his job. You're telling me that there are a lot of factors and things going on that may explain why the Bills aren't doing well and why they should begin to improve. I'm telling you that there is a lot of evidence, things that are actually observable, that suggest that McDermott is failing at his job. McDermott will tell you, he says it all the time, that his job is to put players in postions to succeed. Practically none of his players is succeeding. If his job is to put them in positions to succeed and none of them is succeeding, that says to me he isn't doing his job.

The problem with this is that getting to the playoffs involves a lot of different things, and it alone is not evidence that the coach is a good coach. My problem is the other indicia. The most obvious one, as almost everyone now agrees, is that McDermott thought Peterman was somehow going to be better than Taylor last season and somehow thought Peterman was going to be better than Allen this season. I think he has some fundamental flaws as a coach if his eyes and his process aren't telling him midseason last year and in September this year that Peterman was NOT the best quarterback on his roster. That's really bad coaching. Other indicia like, as I said, failing to have trained Logan Thomas not to take that penalty. The guy is a marginal player. Jerry Hughes takes a stupid penalty, you hold your nose and live with it, maybe, because he's giving you something else. Your second or third tight end is not giving you anything else. Especially if your mantra is to play smart and disciplined, why have you kept this guy on your team? Why did you cut O'Leary, who's also marginal, but who plays intelligently with discipline? Why have you hired two successive offensive coordinators whose offensive style is mired in the past decade, which means that every defense in the league knows how to stop it? Someone asked McDermott after the game Sunday whether the Bills' struggles are causing him to reevaluate his philosophy. His answer told me all I needed to hear. He said something about continuing to work at solid, fundamental football, cleaning up mistakes, etc. was the way to go. In other words, his philosophy seems to be that it doesn't matter what your offensive or defensive style is, so long as everyone does his job and plays hard. That's just flat out wrong. Sunday the Bills did what they always do - try to establish the run. It was a nightmare. They can't dominate anyone with the run. That's been pretty well established. They threw the ball 39 times on Sunday, and they should have thrown it 50. The Bills don't do that because they have a 2010 passing game instead of a 2018 passing game. Maybe McDermott will win in 2019. What I'm saying is that I'm having trouble seeing how that's going to happen. If he's a good coach, he should be able to take ANY group of NFL players get them to play better than what we're seeing. SOME players on the team should be having career years, if he's a good coach. None are. Benjamin is underperforming, Holmes is underperforming, McCoy is underperforming, Ivory is underperforming, Hughes is underperforming, Kyle is underperforming. The safeties are about the only guys on the team who arguably are playing better under McDermott than under their previous coaches. That's pitiful.

You're right. There was something about this game that said HOPELESS. I'm a big Josh Allen, but even if my wildest positive expectations for Allen are true, this team will still be bad. Beyond that, today I have troubling imagining what could happen in the the 2019 free agency and draft that could make it better. Maybe Allen will come back after Thanksgiving, the Bills will sweep the remainder of their schedule, including a dominant win in New England, and I'll feel better. If that happens, Santa Claus also will arrive at my house with eight reindeer on my roof.

Whether the ball was tipped is irrelevant to this discussion. Whether it was tipped is relevant if the call is going to be pass interference - can't have interference if it was tipped. There is no such exception to the defenseless receiver rule. It doesn't have anything to do with whether the receiver would have or might have caught the ball, it doesn't have anything to do with whether the tip messed up the timing of the defender's hit. The rule is that the defender can't drive himself into the receiver in a way that's likely to cause injury when the receiver is in the process of making a play on the ball. The rule was violated and the penalty should have been called, except for the reasons I gave above.

Well, thanks. Everyone knows I tend not to bash the team, generally because I think people on the inside know a lot more about what's going on and why things are done than any of us does. So I've been supportive of McDermott. The problem for me is that when good head coaches come into a new situation, the team starts playing better. They don't necessarily win, but you can see it in how the team carries itself, reacts to adversity, etc. I remember watching the UConn Huskies when Jim Calhoun arrived. The team was pretty bad the last season under the previous head coach. Calhoun came in and with more or less the same players, everything changed. They still didn't win a lot, but they won more. They needed better talent to win a lot more. But even with the same talent, they played better. They rebounded better. They played better defense. They attacked and beat the press better. The same players played better basketball. What troubles me about the 2018 Bills after the Bears debacle is that McDermott has had these players for a year and a half, and they aren't playing better, with the exception of the defense. As others have pointed out, they're taking stupid penalties, just like under Rex. They have no fire on offense. They have no innovation. They just aren't better in any way. A good coach will make ANY team better. Any coach can say, well, this team will get better when we get my kind of players, but only a good coach can deliver when he says "give me any poorly coached team and I'll make it better." If McDermott can't get these guys to play any better than they're playing, that is, if he can't maximize the talents he has, there's no reason to believe he will maximize the talents he'll have next year or the year after.

I think you're technically correct but practically wrong. If that play happens downfield, and if the hit occurs at the instant the ball arrives at Zay's hands, they call a personal foul for the hit above the head on a defenseless receiver. I don't know, but I think that rule applies all over the field - there's no exception within a yard of the line of scrimmage. It's a player safety rule, so I expect it applies all over the field. So I'd guess that, technically, they missed the call. Looking at the replays and the stills, it's kind of surprising that Jones didn't get a concussion on that play. But as a practical matter, I think you're not going to see that called. The Bills were trying to pick the defender, but the Bears played it perfectly and avoided the pick. The pick would have been legal, because the offensive guy setting the pick also was within a yard of the line of scrimmage. The result of the rules and how those pick plays work is that there's a lot of contact within that one-yard zone, and I think as a practical matter, the officials have come to view it as something of a no-man's land as far as contact goes. They're going to call an intentional punch, they're going to call a face mask, and they're going to call a horse collar, but they aren't going to call penalties that just involve contact. I've never heard anyone say that, and I don't think there's a rule about it, I just think that's what was going on on that play. I was in the broadcast booth with Nantz and SIms in New York when the Bills with Fitz and Stevie lost to the Giants. On third and five the Bills faked to Freddie, who ran through the line and turned for about a four-yard pass. Some defender tackled him clearly before the ball arrived. No PI call. The Bills punted, they went to commercial, Nantz turned to Sims and asked "Wasn't that pass interference?" Sims said "they don't call it on running backs." Just like that. Sims admitted that by the rule, it was PI, but the by understanding of everyone it doesn't get called. Now, I think what he really meant is if you fake a handoff to your running back, it's fair game to tackle him, without the ball, anytime within about 10 yards after the fake, but still it was an obvious PI. No interference, Freddie catches it and has a first down. Or call the penalty and the Bills have a first down. The point is, that are penalties that by custom and practice aren't called. The hit to Zay's head in that situation is one of them.