Shaw66

Well, Murphy may be different, because we know that McDermott values senior leadership. I think McD's starting to get it from Hughes, so Murphy may be toast. I thought the second half of the season he played pretty well. But McD has been clear forever about competition. He and Beane work hard to create competition at every position - that's their mantra. Morse is about the only offensive lineman I think is safe. As for Star, I get the sense that McDermott and Beane have a totally different view of his effectiveness than most of the fans. They seem to be thrilled with what he's given them. Still, I don't think he's safe. No one's safe with McDermott. And that's why I'm not worried about Daboll, either. He's going to get the job done that McDermott wants, or he'll be gone.

I agree. I don't think 2020 is anything like a make-or-break season, and if the Bills don't knock it out of the park in 2020, I don't think that means that McBeane can't do it. It just means they didn't do it in 2020. BUT - 2020 is the first season when they COULD start knocking it out of the park. I agree that whether they do will tell us a lot about them.

That's your view. I am certain that other than a total implosion, like 5-11 and rebellion in the locker room, Beane and McDermott are locks for 2021. Their plan is long-term, they've sold it to the Pegulas, and they won't be going anywhere in 2021. Remember, the Pegulas lived through Marrone and Rex, lived through an extraordinarily unhappy fan base, lived through the press storming their doors. Then these two came, everything settled down, everyone seemed to be on track, and they went to the playoffs two seasons out of three. They've seen chaos in Cleveland and other franchises. They aren't going to be in a hurry to dump the guys who took them to peace and harmony and playoffs.

What I expect is this: No big-name free agents, but a lot of guys who will compete for jobs - oline, dline, all over the field. Then more of the same in the draft. I expect a lot of fans will be disappointed, because there won't be names like Allen, Edmunds and Oliver added, just really good football players. What I expect will happen is that there will be intense competition in camp and preseason, and the Bills will go into the season with 5-7 new starters (some rookies, some free agents), and a few rookies will begin earning playing time as the season goes on. Oline, dline and linebacker battles will be fierce. The TEs will be challenged. The wideouts definitely will be challenged - only Brown and Beasley are safe.

I agree, teams do it. And it's also true Beane does it. We've seen plenty of dealing of picks to get a guy they want. Although I disagreed about the original post, as I think about it, it's maybe more likely than people think. Beane has been very clear about what he does. When their pick is approaching, starting with maybe being 15 picks away, they're watching particular guys. When a guy who is the top pick left on their board is sitting there 10 or 15 picks away, they start looking for a possible trade partner, to move up five or six or eight picks to grab the guy if he gets that far. That's what they did to get Edmunds and they did it to get Ford. Beane has said that he will do that when (1) the guy is at the top of his board and in their opinion is a great value , whoever gets him and (2) it's a position of need. He's not going up like that for anyone but a position of need. However, he seems to want always to have a full complement of picks in the draft. He wants at least 7 picks, and he wants one a round. In the past two years, I don't think we've seen him trade future picks if it would leave him in the hole. He'd trade one of two third rounders, or something like that. So I don't see Beane being quick to trade a 2021 first round pick to move up. Beane doesn't have a lot of positions of need. I know, they need a receiver, and they'll get some help, but going into the season with last season's receivers isn't a disaster. He wants an offensive lineman, but he isn't id deep trouble if he doesn't get one. Edge rusher is maybe he only big position of need. But if that's Beane's target, Beane will take him with his own pick instead of trying to trade back into the first round. He just doesn't any particular position like he did last season at DT and offensive line, or the year before at QB or MLB. Those were really important positions to fill just to get competitive. I like that Beane is an active thinker about this stuff, and that he isn't afraid to pull the trigger. He develops supreme confidence in their evaluation of the players, and when he sees what his system tells him is great value, he goes after the guy. Allen, Edmunds, Ford all are in Buffalo because Beane was willing to deal.

Thaks to you and BeastMaster. I agree, it's a lot of small points. No one is saying Allen doesn't have things to improve on. He has plenty, as do most young QBs. It's just that there isn't a silver bullet. It's overall growth and improvement that's necessary, and not just with Allen. It's a team thing. One reason Brady has been as great as he has is become he has been surrounded by teammates who do their jobs.

At some point, but not after two seasons. It takes multiple years to learn to play quarterback. They're all more or less equal coming out of high school. Five years of college and pros vs. four years of college and pros is a meaningful difference. Quality of coaching and program is also a meaningful difference. Half of Allen's experience so far was at Wyoming. More than half of Darnold's experience was at USC. That's a meaningful difference.

That's pretty much how I feel. It's true that every season that goes by without him being a top QB makes it less likely, statistically, that he WILL be a top QB, but I think that thinking applies much more after he's been playing in the league for 4-5 seasons. Right now, he's trending upward, he's not at a point where his body should be slowing down (in fact, he's probably just coming into his athletic peak), his football knowledge, like ending young QB's, still is growing, and the quality of the team around him is improving. All of those things suggest that Allen's best days are ahead of him. I expect him to make another jump in 2020. His completion percentage should climb into the low 60s, and his passer rating will rise to around the league average - low 90s. Two years after that he'll be a solid top 10 QB. Why am I so conficent? His arm and body, his competitiveness and work ethic, and the team that's being built around him. He'll get better and better protection, he'll have a better running back room, he'll have better receivers. It's complementary football - he'll get better, everything around him will get better, and there will improve his performance significantly.

I'm with you. I think it's hard to be sure about QBs until they're further into their careers, except, of course, for those who aren't getting it done at all. Allen doesn't look to me to be a guy who is very close to peaking. BUT - this argument about QBs happens over and over again, and it is true that there are very few examples of guys making it late in their careers without having had some early success. Brees, Brady and Rodgers all had more bench time than Allen, and they all had at least pone early season where they showed more than Allen has shown. So when LSHMeab says to me that he thinks Allen's ceiling is lower than it was, it makes some sense. Every year a guy hasn't lit it up makes it less likely that he will light it up down the road. On the other hand, you have a guy like Tannehill, who's a similar case. Big talent but not much performance in college (albeit for a different reason). First two seasons in the NFL similar to Allen's. Then four seasons of unspectacular but solid performance. Season seven, he rises to near the top of the league. It's easy to see Allen on that kind of trajectory, except I think he has better coaching and a better team around him, so it won't take seven seasons.

I think everyone's story is unique. I don't think that projections based on several other unique stories is a very reliable way to evaluate a qb's promise. Yes, McBeane bet on Allen's heart and brains. As of now, it still looks like a smart bet.

Biscuit I think you're generally right about this. All of it. 2020 is a big year for Josh. And if he makes it, you're right about the statue thing, too. However, I think it should be less of a surprise than you suggest. Allen wasn't just some phenomenal star at a small school. He was an extraordinarily gifted athlete, and there haven't been many of those to come along. Someone was going to bet on him because he had true upside. There was nothing in his physical game that would stop him from being great. Heart and brains is whatMcBeane bet on. I don't think his ceiling has fallen. Why do you think that? He hasn't given any signs of having maxed out in his development. I think Hapless is correct that Josh seems to be doing it at his own pace.

This is a strictly theoretical discussion for potential GMS out there. It isn't real because McBeane have been clear, completely clear, that they will not sacrifice the long term for the short term. A rookie DE is not going to turn the team into a big winner. A rookie DE may not be able to take Shaq's job in his first season. No way they're trading next year's first. They may trade some of the later 2020 picks to move up, but that's it.

This is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. There is no reliable data about how well or how poorly Allen throws people open. So we don't have any idea how well Allen is doing in this "category" as compared to the other qbs in the league. You don't talk about YAC, but it's the same problem. If you're completing the ball 10 yards downfield and the receiver gets tackled immediately, there's no YAC. If you complete the ball at the line of scrimmage to a back and he runs for 10 yards, you get 10 YAC but the YPA is identical. Yes, you always want to improve at throwing people open and at YAC, but just because you want to improve doesn't mean it will have a dramatic impact on your stats. On the other hand, consider this: In 2019, Josh Allenwas 271 for 461, 58.8% completion percentage, which made him 26th in the league in Yards per Attempt. If he could improve his completion percentage to 66% - that would make him 10th in the league, look at what happens: On the same number of attempts, he'd have 32 more completions, and on the same yards per catch, he'd have 360 more yards. His yards per attempt would go up to 7.5, or 13th in the league. His completion percentage is much more important than these things you're talking about. Now, will throwing guys open increase Allen's completion percentage? Sure. So will better presnap reads, better postsnap reads, better decision making, better communication with the receivers, better footwork, better receivers, better play calling and better pass protection. YAC and throwing people open sound nice, but they are only a small, maybe even tiny part of what's necessary for Allen to have the kind of success we want to see. It's not some kind of magic elixir that's going to turn Allen into a star. Football in Sean McDermott's world is about getting all of the little things right as close to all the time as possible. Throwing guys open, for Allen, is just one little thing.

As I said, I think it's overstated. Neither YAC nor throwing open is anything close to be the most important things about successful qbs. Throwing people open isn't even a stat, it's just a subjective observation about qbs. Completion percentage, yards per attempt, and td-int ratio tell us much more about a qb. People want nuts a few years ago about Tyrod Taylor not throwing over the middle. It was silly how much people harped on it. The reality was if Taylor threw over middle at league average, he would have something like one more completion per game. Do I think Allen could be better throwing receivers open? Yes. I just don't think it's close to the most important thing to get better at. YAC? As someone pointed out, you get YAC throwing to backs and hitting deep balls to receivers. Most fans don't want him throwing more to backs. Yes I'd like Allen to complete more deep balls.

Weird? That's funny! Maybe I do. I really don't like the guy as a QB. Every thing about him says "me! Me! ME!!!" Actually, I think Lamar Jackson behaves the same way. All smiles when things are going good, down in the dumps when they aren't. Lamar is loved by his teammates, too. And I'll definitely admit to being an older fan. I was going to leave Cam out of that post because I didn't want to have defend my view of Cam again, but he fit what I was saying so I put him it.

I think that's a fundamental misinterpretation of who Allen is. I'll agree, he still has the mentality the he CAN do whatever it takes, all by himself, but his play and progress from year one to year two are pretty good evidence, I think, that he's all-in on the team concept. There's a difference between supreme self-confidence, which I think Allen has, and a belief that he has to do it all himself. He's not Mike Vick, Jay Cutler, or Cam Newton.

I'm wary of free agent tight ends, generally. Graham to Seattle looked like a slam dunk winner and - not so much. I don't think tight ends are the impact players some people thing they are. You need the right guy in the right situation. Graham looked all world, but it now it looks like it was more about Payton and Brees.

These are good points, but it's all relative. The players will make out just fine; it's just that relative to the owners, they'll probably leave some money on the table. The players will get a lot that they like, and they won't be willing to shut down the league to do better.

I'd like to go to a game with you sometime.

Agreed. That fact that he gives up on plays that Rodgers and Brees don't give up on is a testament to how great Brady has been - he hasn't needed the big play he could occasionally get by taking a hit - he's been great without it. My point was that his discomfort with being hit is apparent, and Allen doesn't have that limitation. Allen has to learn to protect himself better, but I don't think we'll ever see him going down like Brady.

On more thing about this contact thing. I've reluctantly come around to agreeing that Brady is an amazing quarterback, but one of his few shortcomings is his response to contact. He really doesn't like it. We've all seen his productivity go down in games where he gets hit a lot. They've taught him that there's always another play and that it's okay to go down, avoid the contact, stay healthy and move on the next play, and Brady has enthusiastically adopted that philosophy. He gives himself up a lot. I think that in tough games he leaves a play or two a game on the field, because he isn't always willing to stand in there and take the hit.

I think those are great points. You're absolutely right about EJ and contact. Here's where I found a little data: https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/ej-manuel/ I'd never been to that site before, but it looks pretty interesting. It has an interesting collection of data on each player.

You know, I think the thing about dominating games is just premature. That is, it's asking a lot for a second year QB to dominate games consistently. Frankly, I don't understand how Mahomes is able to do it. The other youngsters who have done it had the benefit of scheme and coaching, which masks, I think, the fact that they aren't yet able to dominate games in a full-fledged NFL offense. I think the typical guys one thinks of as dominating games are Rodgers and Brady, Brees and Roethlisberger, Wilson. What they have in common is brains and a lot of experience, which makes them the proverbial coach-on-the-field, with the physical tools to deliver on what they're seeing. It comes with time, so I'm not terribly troubled that we aren't seeing that dominance yet from Allen. The whole question about Allen (and any other young QB, like Wentz and Goff and Lamar Jackson) is whether they can continue to grow into that kind of dominant QB, The young guy who seems to be on the right path is DeShaun Watson - every season he looks to me like he's seeing the field and making the right decisions. And I've always liked Tannehill, and he might be on the way, too. People pooh-pooh him, but he has the physical tools and at least this season, it looked like he needed to get out of the mess in Miami to begin to play sophisticated football.

"me, neither." That's great! And I had the same reaction after seeing Allen for a game or two in his rookie season. Actually, I had my first reaction was when he made a couple of unbelievable throws in preseason. It was obvious he's a special thrower. Then he torched the Vikings, and I was sold. I looked a few minutes ago at some sight that listed a variety of athletic measurables, just to see how Allen and EJ compared. In several categories - size, foot speed, agility - they were quite similar. What surprised me was the one place where they were dramatically different, and it says a lot about which guy can succeed in the NFL. EJ's throwing release velocity wasn't in the same county as Allen's.

This is excellent and rings true from top to bottom. I'll add a couple of things. One is that there's a place in the play book for those deep patterns run by DiMarco and Beasley. They are there to take advantage of defensive mistakes. Sending those guys deep occasionally draws a defender away from a targeted area and, if the defense is overplaying your primary guy, those guys will get really good separation occasionally. In fact, that play (I guess in the Houston game) when Allen threw the wild deep ball to DiMarco was one of those - DiMarco HAD good separation, but Allen saw him late and couldn't get the ball there, so coverage collapsed around the ball and it ended up being an ugly play. If Allen improves in the deep ball arena, it will come from a variety of areas of improvement: communication with Brown and any other serious deep threat the Bills may bring in (or significant improvement from Foster), recognition by Allen of the opportunities, better loft on the ball (sometimes all that's needed is to see where the opportunity will be and to put the ball in the air for the receiver to find and go get it), better protection in the cover 1 cover-0 sets, so Allen has the time to make the decisions and set up to make a proper throw.