Scott7975

One thing I will say about that play is it actually looked smooth. A lot of times I see them run some play like that it looks clunky and fails just because of that. Yes, they should have just went with the reverse though. It was there.

Thank you for this explanation, and the write up above of course. These things are better to me than the breakdown videos of a couple plays people do. This part is what I have been trying to explain but I am football stupid. In any case... maybe this is possibly why Josh seems to hold the ball sometimes. I think maybe he either expected the receiver elsewhere because he read the play different than the receiver and one of them is wrong, maybe even waiting for the receiver/defender to declare, or things like that (again i'm football stupid. my brain also doesn't function and I often search for words that I know but can't find haha.) This could also be why we sometimes find multiple receivers garbling up the same area and also puts Josh in a rough spot. The other thing I would like to ask is... a lot of people say this is the same offense that Daboll ran. I dunno if it is or not but to me it does not look like the same offense. Either way, this offense might be better long term if these guys get the execution down better, but I feel at this point they should back off a bit because it isn't working for them and this season is just going to fall hard if they don't get back to some basics. I think on that last drive that Davis wasn't even on the field. I dunno if true or not as I didn't pay attention, but I read that somewhere.

This is nothing new. Defenses tried this back when Daboll was here. Josh torched it before. He has seen and torched just about everything. This is why he was on an unstoppable roll in 2021, because nothing they threw at him worked. Not two high shell, not man, not zone, not cover zero, not blitzes... nothing worked against him once he figured it out. Like cover zero took him a couple games. Everyone thinks taking checkdowns is the answer and sometimes it is but nobody is bringing their safeties down. They dont give a crap about the checkdown. Making us play perfect for 15 play drives is what they are going to do because nobody can consistently play perfect on those kinds of drives when one mistake ends the drive. One missed pass, one penalty, one sack, one turnover, one stuffed run, etc etc... all end the drive unless there is a defensive mistake or Allen makes a super hero play. That isn't going to consistently happen.

Sorry no. You can't put all the offensive woes on our defense and starting field position. Bengals game possessions start at 25 got a first down by penalty and went 3 and out punt. start at 12 2 plays int on our own side of the field start at 9 3 and out minus yardage start at 25 moved the ball but a bogus imo intentional grounding call took us out of FG range and half ended start at 26 FG start at 9 3 and out start at 9 moved the ball but fumbled in their territory Those are all the drives we did not score on and one we did. Explain to me how field position mattered at all. If anything it was the offense that couldn't flip the field. Not too mention our punts sucked. Field position doesn't matter if you go 3 and out or turn over the ball anyways. Most of those our defense made stops by midfield btw.

There is no rise of 2 high shell. This defense has been tried against Josh for years. Going back to Daboll. Its just effective now because Dorsey is attacking it differently. Josh used to torch this defense.

Not sure I agree with all that but its too early for me to argue. I know its not actually early but my sleep schedule is all over the place so I just woke up. I'll think about this later and come back. I will start with the Bills skill players are way better than the Chiefs right now. All those guys do is drop footballs and Kelce is old and was hobbled most of the season. Dolphins have a couple guys and we have a couple guys. Some of those olines are about the same. Our QB is better than some of those QBs.

Maybe turn the volume on and listen to what he says instead Im all for getting better players and coaches but lets not act like we have the worst group in the league. Our oline is at least average. Davis is at least average. Kincaid is above average. Shakir has caught and made plays with just about every ball thrown his way. I don't know what he is but he is making the most of his opportunities. Cook is good. Josh and Diggs are elite. I expect at least top 10. Last season we had a bad game here and there but it wasn't this 5 game in a row ***** show and we had worse players.

Yeah I know it wasnt intentional grounding. I lumped them together my bad.

They call stuff when they feel like it. The rule is that if you do something in the face of the opponent then its taunting. Such as look and point at the defender or spiking the ball in the defenders face or pointing first down to the defenders face. Thats why you usually see someone get a first down and then move away from the defenders before they do their first down point or spike ball or whatever. You are right that it isnt always called and they call it when they feel like it just like all other penalties. The penalty is also stupid af but it is the rule. He has been called for it before. They just pick and choose when they feel like calling it. Now he has gloves that are painted red two finger peace sign so he just puts his whole hand up as a mockery.

This has been what I have been trying to get across all season. It's fine to take the short stuff or the "what the defense gives you" stuff once in a while but it's not going to get the job done. Thats why the defense gives it to you. You have to play too perfect for that to work. One mistake ends the whole drive. One incompletion. One stuffed run. One penalty. One sack. That just too much to ask from Josh or any other QB. They are behind the sticks too often. We don't have the skillset nor is it the QBs strength to run that kind of offense. Especially when they neuter his running.

This. To the letter of the rule it was a penalty. Just like that throw they called intentional grounding when really the receiver just cut off his route. There are far worse things like the facemask not called or the sliding tripping tackle not called. Or in another game the guy taking his helmet off and hitting someone with it not called. This taunting rule is just stupid. Even stupider Josh could have gotten ejected for another similar act. The NFL rules just don't make sense. Much like some of their fines don't make sense.

and that would be what the eye test actually shows. Not some skewed "we are #3 in epa!!!!" crap.

Like I said in my post... I didn't generate these. It was a thread on cover 1's twitter that I took them from. It was more efficient to just post the pictures than embedded tweets of embedded tweets. I posted them because there was a question about another posters tweets. These are the accepted standard of metrics for EPA. It still shows our offense is not up to par. Thats part of the reason I don't like this stat. You can make it say whatever bias you want it to. The stat has it's place. Showing our offense is fine is not one of them. Overall, in the games for the last 5 weeks, our offense has not been fine. It's been mostly avg or bad. When I make that point and it's finally accepted because it can't be disputed, I get the "well the Chiefs are not doing well either." I don't care. Another team not doing well doesn't make our team suddenly better. Our team is still not doing well. I don't accept that average to bad offense is ok when we have an elite QB. And no, I do not think we had a lot of garbage time. The games have been close enough to win at the end, so garbage time doesn't exist.

I mean, I don't really care about any of that. I care that our offense has not performed to standards. I don't care what EPA shows. It has not performed to standards. They are not scoring for big chunks of the game. Over the last 5 weeks this offense has not put up points. Thats just a fact no matter what advanced metrics anyone wants to show, it won't change that. The Bills need to do better. If you don't see this offense as being bad over the last 5 weeks you are either blind or delusional. (not saying you as in actually you.)

Here is the epa using 10-90%. As I understand it that is the value most people use. I did not generate these. It was from a cover 1 thread on twitter but it was easier to post the graphs than try and embed the tweets. Easier to look at it this way than the tweets are.

I would like to see that as well. I am not doing the work on it though haha

Well sure, it softens the blow so to speak. It also helps that their D has helped them win games so they aren't really in the same position as us as they still lead the conference. I would still want to see my offense play better.

I don't think being 20th in ppg over the last 5 games meaningless. We aren't scoring. Thats a fact. Whats meaningless is EPA. Scoring and stopping other teams from scoring is what matters in the NFL. Wins and losses is what matters in the NFL. I really don't care about advanced analytics showing we are the best when the actual score card shows we are well below average.

The Chiefs offense is also not playing well this year and if I were a Chiefs fan I would be just as disappointed with their offense as I am with the Bills offense. The Chiefs are not the measuring stick for offense this year. Just because the Chiefs offense is also bad doesn't make our 20th in points offense good. There are still 19 teams better.

Again, over the last 5 games the Bills are 20th in points per game. Even over the last 3 games which removes a 6 point game and a 14 point game the Bills are tied 13th and only 1.3 ppg from being 15th (average.) They are not good on offense if they don't score. This isn't a league wide problem. Maybe you are ok with being average while having an elite QB but I am not. With an elite QB, you should not be average, which is actually well below average over the last 5.

I am going to put my basic theory on whats going on with this offense. This offensive design is to read pre snap what the coverage is. That determines what side of the field Josh looks at. The leverage of the dbs dictates what route the receivers run. This is why Josh doesnt see the open guy on the still shot image people love to post and say "look, he's open!!" and why this offense always looks so disjointed. Maybe not all the time but at least some of the time. Josh isn't looking 1-2-3-4-(5). Its really more like 1-2 oh crap what now? Probably why it may also seem he is "locked on" to a guy. There is no gameplan really specific to an opponent. There is no cat and mouse going on during the game. Dorsey calls a play and they line up. If in this coverage read that side of the field. If in that coverage read this side of the field. This is why we get comments like "he only runs two routes" from the opposing players. Teams that disguise their coverage well makes you read the wrong thing. That slows down the decision making. Teams have enough film of this now to know exactly where the players are going and where the reads are going to be. There may be guys open but they probably were not part of the reads based on the coverage Josh seen presnap. This may be highly efficient from a play perspective because it technically should have the coverage beat no matter what play the defense is running as the offense should always have an out. However, it takes extreme execution on every single play from start to finish. The presnap read has to be correct. If it isn't then it has to be identified immediately. Only half the receivers are reads so they have to get open. It's more difficult for them to get open because the defense knows what the primary reads are so they toughen up their coverage to those reads post snap. The other options aren't even looked at except when Josh is in hero mode after the play has broken down. It also limits the offensive routes. The D knows where the players are going because they know what routes are being run based on their own coverage call. This is extremely limiting as really only half the receivers are ever being considered. It also means the receiver and the QB both have to always read things the same way. It puts the entire weight of the game on Josh shoulders and none of it on the coordinator having a good gameplan and being good at chess. No plays are run to set up future plays. Just a theory. I obviously don't know ***** about football like some others around here but I do have a really good mind for troubleshooting as thats what I did all my life.

For me, I don't care about optics. Just win the football game. I don't think this team is going to a super bowl this year or anything but I still want my team winning football games. Losing this one and the door to the playoffs is pretty much closed. Miami would have to collapse for us to make the playoffs because a wc isn't happening.

I'd agree with that. I honestly thought Jacksonville was overhyped but I was totally wrong. They are playing well.

I think probably talent and also probably aggressiveness. McD can get aggressive on blitzes but he plays soft zone non aggressive on the back end. Our guys don't even chuck the receiver at the line when they play close. I made comments about that in the GDT this week. Even when our coverage played at the line they were still letting free releases of the receivers. I couldn't believe it. Just my guess though.