Stafford should win pretty comfortably unless he majorly lays an egg in the last 4 weeks. If the Bills somehow get the 1 or 2 seed and Allen scores 5 TDs per game until the end of the season he could repeat but I would still probably bet against it. Maye won't get it over Stafford because he hasn't "paid his dues", so to speak, while Stafford is at the tail end of a long career.
Legacy stuff factors in a lot when it probably shouldn't.