transplantbillsfan

Your Wife must be proud

I don't watch College Football AT ALL!!! But my understanding is that Michigan didn't pass the ball all that much. Most scouts have JJ McCarthy above Bo Nix or Michael Penix even though McCarthy has significantly less production. Also... remember Josh Allen...

Have you watched a lot of Pearsall and Wilson?

People need to understand that Von needed to have some motive to agree to this. This incentive allows him to earn more than his previous contract and also gives the Bills a whole lot of CAP savings this year. If he gets all those sacks, we're on the hook next year and, frankly, Von is likely still on the team.

No way... huh???? Have you scouted all these players thoroughly and do you have a scouting background? I agree it was eye opening that he put Pearsall, Wilson and Baker ahead of a bunch of guys everyone's talking about in the late first round, but it's quite possible we're the ones who are wrong.

I listened to Bruce Nolan's podcast and he has his WR rankings. For those who don't know, he's been a writer and podcaster for Buffalo Rumblings for years and he knows his stuff. Very knowledgeable in scouting. He actually ranked his top 17 WRs in the draft and broke them into 5 tiers: Tier 1 Marvin Harrison Jr. Malik Nabers Rome Odunze Tier 2 Brian Thomas Jr. Adonai Mitchell Ladd McConkey Tier 3 Ricky Pearsall Javon Baker Roman Wilson Tier 4 Xavier Legette Xavier Worthy Ja'Lynn Polk Brendan Rice Troy Franklin Tier 5 Malachi Corley Jalen McMillen Keon Coleman

If we sign him, he wouldn't count against the compensatory pick formula since he was released.

No, I never said that was the contract. What I said was that Von wouldn't have signed the contract if there weren't something like some NLTBE incentives in there. The player and team would have to agree on what those incentives would be. Looks like I was right about that and (mostly) right about how those incentives work. Obviously Von didn't get a sack last year and his incentives start at 2 sacks. I wonder if there's a $500k incentive for 1 sack of if there's a clause in the incentive verbiage that because of his natural position as an edge rusher, there's a baseline of expectation on the position based on the agreed upon metric. Like 1 sack for an edge rusher if sacks are the agreed upon metric. But if it were tackles and Von didn't have any tackles last year it would have been 1 tackle so he would need at least 2. Or for a WR if they 1 reception would probably be what the WR would want over 1 TD, etc. That's just my guess. But you can go look yourself. NLTBE incentives are based on prior year's performance. And I think everyone would want him to earn all of his money back.

Look, I'm no CAP expert, but I'm quite sure I have this right. Not likely to be earned incentives AND likely to be earned incentives are based strictly on the prior year's performance. But it's not like those are the only bonuses players get during the season. The one you reference with Gronk was likely Performance based pay. And you're right, performance based pay can absolutely be set at whatever level team and player agree upon. My point was that we don't actually know what the incentives were, but I would bet that in order for Miller to agree to this, there were some Not likely to be earned incentives built in that he's very obviously going to earn considering the season he had last year. I listed the 3 very obvious ones of tackles, sacks and games played. What does Greg get wrong regarding the CAP? I listen to him a lot. I also just cross referenced the whole conversation of "likely to be earned" and "not likely to be earned" incentives being based on the prior year and sure seems like he's right. It's just that maybe people are misunderstanding what I'm saying and are thinking those are the only 2 possible incentives that Von could have renegotiated for, and as I just said, they aren't. As I just said, those are Performance based incentives. That's different from NLTBE/LTBE.

Poyer replacement. Knows the system and played much better to end the year. Now get Hyde's replacement

It wouldn't be a bonus. It's a not likely to be earned incentive, which are typically based on the player's previous statistical season. I listen to a LOT of Greg Tompsett. That's exactly how he defines it. You can Google it and that's how it's defined, too. I'm sure that player and team can come to a different agreement, but what would be the motivation for the player? The entire point is that it benefits both player and team, as this does. That's how you so often hear of players agreeing to something we equate to a "payout." They can earn it back. And if they do, the team owes it the following year. Tompsett also points out that it can work in favor of the team when a player agrees to LIKELY to be earned incentives, but doesn't reach them. For example, Matt Milano signed an extension last offseason. We don't know the details of the incentives in his contract, but assuming the team put incentives in his contract that were likely to be earned incentives in his contract like tackles, sacks, interceptions, and games played... he likely didn't meet those incentives. Those likely to be earned incentives would have counted against the CAP last year and therefore we'd get that money back in the CAP this year. If the report is that Von can still earn $20m next year, I doubt it's Beane being ruthless and would bet on the not likely to be earned incentives.

I don't doubt that, but you hearing this from anywhere in particular???? 10 tackles won't be difficult for him to reach, anyway.

Not likely to be earned incentives are typically based on the player's previous statistical season. I listen to a LOT of Greg Tompsett. That's exactly how he defines it. You can Google it and that's how it's defined, too. I'm sure that player and team can come to a different agreement, but what would be the motivation for the player? The entire point is that it benefits both player and team, as this does. Tompsett also points out that it can work in favor of the team when a player agrees to LIKELY to be earned incentives, but doesn't reach them. For example, Matt Milano signed an extension last offseason. We don't know the details of the incentives in his contract, but assuming the team put incentives in his contract that were likely to be earned incentives in his contract like tackles, sacks, interceptions, and games played... he likely didn't meet those incentives. Those likely to be earned incentives would have counted against the CAP last year and therefore we'd get that money back in the CAP this year.

Yes, that's how it works.

I think he legitimately thinks he can still play and this new deal gives him the opportunity to earn more than what he was scheduled to earn. You can almost guarantee that 2 of the "hard to reach incentives" put in his contract are tackles and sacks. That means if he gets more tackles than 2023, he reaches that incentive and earns more. That wouldn't be hard considering he had 3 tackles If he gets more sacks than in 2023, he reaches that incentive and earns more. That wouldn't be hard considering he had 0 sacks. My bet is another incentive will be games played or active, and considering he started the season on PUP, that might not be hard for him, either. So yes, this is a solid for Buffalo, but he may legitimately believe he's about to earn more than he was scheduled... and all of that money goes on next year's CAP.

Actually I think he legitimately thinks he can still play and this new deal gives him the opportunity to earn more than what he was scheduled to earn. Think about it folks... you can almost guarantee that 2 of the "hard to reach incentives" put in his contract are tackles and sacks. That means if he gets more tackles than 2023, he reaches that incentive and earns more. That wouldn't be hard considering he had 3 tackles If he gets more sacks than in 2023, he reaches that incentive and earns more. That wouldn't be hard considering he had 0 sacks. My bet is another incentive will be games played or active, and considering he started the season on PUP, that might not be hard for him, either. So yes, this is a solid for Buffalo, but he may legitimately believe he's about to earn more than he was scheduled... and all of that money goes on next year's CAP.

Super interesting, but I bet those "hard to reach incentives" were attainable in Von's eyes, which is why he agreed to it.

Dude... what the heck are you talking about????? So because we released a CB who hasn't been healthy or Elite for 3 years, a Safety who is clearly on the decline, a Special Teams Ace who is clearly on the decline, a WR/PR who never remotely lived up to his expectations or contract, a RB/PR who... same thing, and our starting Center who was still good, but old... our window is closed???? I think if anything this might show that Beane and McDermott are looking at this team and trying to ignite new life in it THIS year!!! Those 11 draft picks we have sure will help. Super Bowl!!!!

What's the Douglas salary conversion?

There is also a financial component to taking Coleman in the 1st round if you're willing to trade down to the top of the 2nd to get him that Beane might be considering. That 5th year option for a WR might matter here.

Wow... that's interesting. Dude's a starting caliber Guard. It'd be really nice if Tommy Doyle could come back healthy, but not counting on that. Let's hope Alec Anderson has developed into a Bates level backup and can play Center at least adequately.

So I'm not saying I'm an advocate for drafting Keon Coleman in the 1st or anything, but I think way too much is being made of his 40 time at the Combine. I realize all I'm going by is highlights, but his play speed looks plenty fine to me. First play at 18 seconds shows him plenty fast and elusive enough. Play at 1:51 looks like a guy with more agility and route running than Gabe. The next play (that you see from the All-22 at 2:10) shows pretty good route running ability along with the speed to separate from the defender. At 2:41 you see him used in a Bubble Screen with enough speed and agility to get away from the defender and get into the EZ. Watch his Punt return at 3:00 and tell me that a guy at that size returning a punt like that isn't impressive. Another effective Bubble Screen at 1:03 Effective WR screen behind the LOS at 1:30 I'm going to stop there. I've been listening to a lot of sports podcasts lately that aren't just Bills ones. Move the Sticks with Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks. First Draft with Field Yates and Mel Kiper Jr. The Athletic Football Podcast with Nate Tice and (sometimes) Dane Brugler. What you hear a lot about the scouting process is the phrase "grade the flashes." Basically, grade those players in their best moments. Keon Coleman in his best moments looks like a 1st round WR, to me. All that said, I do think his draft stock is down after the 40 time, so if we drafted Coleman, what I'd like to see us do is actually trade DOWN into the top of the 2nd and acquire more draft picks and use those other draft picks to slingshot up for more picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round because there's supposed to be a significant drop off in talent after the middle rounds.

The gauntlet is much more representative of "in game GPS speed," don't you think? Coleman and McConkey were 2 of the best performers in that drill. Let's also remember that Puka Nakua's 40 time last year was 4.57 and Kyren Williams' 40 time 2 years ago was a 4.65. Both of those guys were studs for the Rams.