transplantbillsfan

I already know many will dismiss this but I'll post it anyway. I'm starting to think much of this message board rides on a hope and a dream. Don't like the results of polls. Don't trust polls! Don't like what Mainstream news sources say. Never trust mainstream News sources! Too funny.

Between June 8th and June 14th Fivethirtyeight tracked 22 head to head polls between Trump and Biden. Average of those polls? Biden +9.1%

And you seem to have an unreasonable level of mistrust in authority. Swings both ways.

We are talking about polls on the whole. Did you actually read that article? Seems you're suffering from some confirmation bias and it's blinding you a little. And I will admit I thought polls were better historically, too. They've actually gotten significantly more accurate over the last 50 years, particularly starting in the 90s. Other than a blip in the 1998 mid terms, it in fact appears polls nationally were averaging being off by a mere 3 or 4 points. And that average includes polls outside that margin of error you bring up. https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2019/11/19/a-field-guide-to-polling-election-2020-edition/ You're decrying the accuracy of polls because you claim methodology is outdated. If anything, polls seem to be getting MORE accurate, not less. Sure Individual polls will get bits wrong, but if you take an average of polls and they are off by 3%, that's pretty decent, especially by historical standards over the last comment 70 years. Just looked at 22 polls from June 8th-June 14th, which you can do yourself clicking the link below, and Biden has an average of a 9.1% point lead. That's well outside the recent 3 or 4 point margin of error. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ Even Trump's beloved FOX News and Rasmussen polls are really not looking good for him. You guys all just seem to hang your hats on "well... well... well 2016!!!" over here as a flawed argument as to why polls shouldn't be trusted when you 100% KNOW you'd be posting them if they were favorable for Trump. In fact that's exactly what happened over here in the momentary flash Trump's approval rating spiked in the beginning of the Pandemic. Now apparently approval ratings don't matter again.

Except in 2016 the final aggregate of polls had Clinton up by about 3%. She won the Popular vote by 2%. Yeah they were wrong because of our electoral system, which is why you're seeing so much attention being paid to swing states instead of the nation overall. And Biden is ahead in almost all of those swing states, too. You guys are just too funny.

While some of the polls were well outside the margin of error in 2016, even those polls were actually pretty accurate. The obvious screwup was accounting for the electoral rather than the popular vote. 2016 polls on average were quite accurate in terms of the popular vote, which Clinton won by 2%. And to answer the question I posed you, the 2018, 2014, 2012 and 2010 polls (you claimed polls were outdated 10 years ago) were also quite accurate, indicating a polling system that generally works and isn't broken or outdated. Many pollsters are using other methods than calling, though yes, that's still the primary method. So polling is still and has been pretty accurate. And then you throw in the human factor. You don't think these pollsters don't understand their screwup in 2016--perceived or real--and want to make sure they're as accurate as possible moving forward?

How old must I be? How were polls in 2018, 2014, 2012, 2010 and 2008?

What is there we had to learn? This is a legitimate question. The logic here seems to dismiss every poll because in 2016 they were wrong. You don't think that's an egregious example of cherry picking? Polls and pollsters aren't ALWAYS accurate, but they are most of the time. Yep, polls were wrong in 2016. That doesn't mean they aren't widely accurate as a whole. Typical Weathermen fallacy to mistrust all polls with that logic.

Since some people think we need more poll numbers:

Don't hear anything about polls? If you wanna hear about polls, here's the summary: Biden is winning.

Said by no one with a "wonderful sense of humor"

Leave it to DR to have no sense of humor. You sure you aren't just a Russian bot?

I'm kinda excited to see this place in November. I wasn't around for any of the Presidential elections, but I get the sense that after the election in November this will be a very pleasant place as winners and losers come together in a time to celebrate, unite and congratulate one another, making amends of their differences. That's what happens, right?

I did say they were warned and briefed by the FBI. They were warned and briefed that the Russians were trying to meddle in the election.

Wrong all the way, huh? Did the Trump campaign get warned about Russian meddling or not? I'll answer for you because the simple FACT is yes, as Trump's own current AG admits. I know you're getting stressed about the new avatar you're going to have to deal with, but try not to panic.

For someone not in the room when these threats were discussed, you seem to be reaching your own conclusion of the words of an AG who moments before denied it even happened and then had to correct himself. In fact Barr was asked directly "what the Russians were trying to do and advise him to tell people affiliated with his campaign to be on their guard and be vigilant about Russian efforts to undermine public confidence in the election." Barr responded "My understanding is that didn't happen, Under these circumstances, it's one of the things that I can't fathom why it did not happen, if you're concerned about interference in the election and you have substantial people involved in the campaign who were former U.S. attorneys" Then after an apparent break, Barr comes back and has to walk back his comments. One might argue in his situation as he contradicts something he just said he did so artfully and diplomatically. Nonetheless, it demonstrates that the Obama Administration did, in fact, warn the Trump campaign about Russian meddling and interference. If you want to argue they didn't go far enough, that's a different discussion. But anyone saying the Trump campaign wasn't warned about Russian meddling is just plain wrong, as current AG Bill Barr himself acknowledged publicly.

Dude you're having a different conversation. Go back and read how this back and forth started between DR and me.

Who said good? It's just recent. Plus it was a Republican Administration so you right wingers over here can frolic in the reference.

As I said, Trump was warned Russians were meddling. Both he and Hilary were warned in August of 2016. Can't muster up the courage to admit you were wrong, can you?

Bush was Cheney's puppet and Karl Rove and Donald Rumsfeld did A LOT in that Administration as well. You're acting like this would be the first time in history the President delegated power. A good leader appoints good people he trusts underneath him rather than micromanaging every single issue. One of the biggest problems with the Trump administration is he's constantly micromanaging and trusts no one.

Yep. This is the way I see it. His VP choice is going to be a big deal. I said since Biden entered the race that a Biden-Harris ticket would be very likely. I'll stick with that. Choosing her would be another boost to the campaign.

You should check your facts. You're wrong. Both Trump and Hillary were warned about Russian interference. Bill Barr acknowledges this.

It would tell me there are more than a bunch of white voices in this forum talking about issues of race and racial injustice. It would tell me there are actually people in this forum who have experienced the systemic racism to some degree who are talking about it rather than a bunch of armchair quarterbacks.

You're too cute