transplantbillsfan

Thank you for allowing me to copy and paste your first sentence. In reference to your own 2nd paragraph: Read what you wrote. It sounded like blah, blah, blah I got my talking points last week, ridiculous word vomit, ridiculous word vomit, ridiculous word vomit. And regarding your 3rd paragraph. Your Internet Message board opinion that I'm racist really doesn't bother me. I don't care because I understand that I have plenty of my own prejudices that I'm aware of. I'm human. It's natural. I choose to confront them to try to change them and question them whereas it seems you and your ilk vehemently deny they exist in you. Your 3rd paragraph is a rather pathetic attempt to distract from the issue itself by namecalling and being an armchair quarterback, which is what most people on this message board like to do with teachers. It's sad,. I'm extremely proud of what I've done as a teacher for every single one of my students, who I guarantee you are some of the most diverse demographically you will ever see in a classroom with White, Black, Pacific Islander, Asian, Indian, etc. all residing in a single classroom at the same time. It would likely be hard for you to find any more diverse place in the world than the island of Oahu. I've lived here 16 years going on the rest of my life and love the people, the food, the landscape and the life. And if you think a racist, bigoted haole boy could have made the life I've built for myself here, you're sorely mistaken and should probably be working to better yourself in the way we all should be doing every day, anyway.

good talk

Our founding fathers who put it in place and leaders for years who perpetuated it. Heck look what Andrew Johnson did in the wake of Lincoln's assassination and the abolishment of slavery. That guy was about as far-right a President as you'll get. It's "Institutional" because it's been embedded in our Country since its foundation. Why is it that the far-right loves to engage in grievance politics and believes it excuses their own action or inaction?

Institutional racism, bigotry and sexism is embedded by our founding fathers into our founding documents through the perpetuation of slavery and the protection of slave-owners rights to slaves as property. So I'm guessing you also avidly distrust the founding documents of our Country that was created by a bunch of racists and slave owners, right? So who do you trust? Are you anti-American?

Decades of sexual misconduct? Check Decades of racially insensitive comments? Check At least you tacitly acknowledge you're doing exactly what you're accusing Biden voters in the Fall potentially doing by voting for him. Yes I guess you could say new boss like old boss because Trump has also had decades of sexual misconduct and decades of racism, but you've rationalized it for yourself, haven't you?

And so it begins. If Trump wins, Legitimate election. If Biden wins, It was stolen from him by the media and Democrats.

Hey look. Another "But... but... but 2016!!!" response

And yet... I just hope you're braced for November. I fear you're not and will be extra distraught in November. If you start preparing yourself mentally and emotionally now, you'll be fine. And you'll be sporting an awesome new avatar, too.

I think we've already established Joe isn't winning because of overwhelming enthusiasm for him. He's winning because of an overwhelming dislike of our current President. That's reflected in polls, too. I know how much you love those.

Oh I'm sorry. Which creepy old guy are we talking about? The lecherous one who knows very well them well he is a pedophile and has said publicly stated he knowingly oversteps his boundaries to get away with anything, anyway?

Which is funny, because that was supposed to be Biden’s strength. Plus: “Importantly, Trump is in a virtual tie with Biden among women, Hispanic, and suburban voters. . . . The survey also asked which party was the bigger threat to the economy. It was close, with 51% pointing the finger at Democrats and 49% at the Republicans. But some key 2020 voting groups (Hispanics, independents) ‘thought Democrats were a bigger threat to an economic recovery,’ said the analysis.” Prediction: All the emphasis on black issues will move some Hispanic voters who otherwise would have voted Democrat into the Trump, or at least the nonvoting, camp. By Glenn Reynolds First of all, there's a reason when people are asked "who they think will win 2020" they say Trump... it's the downtrodden attitude of a loser. We're Bills fans. We're familiar with it. We're used to epic losses we expected Ws out of. Now we expect losses even in games we should probably win. I know not everyone is like this with the team, but many are. I am. Expect the worst because you've already seen it. Hope for the best. Asking voters what they think will happen and weighing that more heavily than who they'll vote for is a silly exercise. Plus... wait... what??? Trump is in a virtual tie with Biden with women???

Does anyone watch anything other than sports live nowadays?

I already know many will dismiss this but I'll post it anyway. I'm starting to think much of this message board rides on a hope and a dream. Don't like the results of polls. Don't trust polls! Don't like what Mainstream news sources say. Never trust mainstream News sources! Too funny.

Between June 8th and June 14th Fivethirtyeight tracked 22 head to head polls between Trump and Biden. Average of those polls? Biden +9.1%

And you seem to have an unreasonable level of mistrust in authority. Swings both ways.

We are talking about polls on the whole. Did you actually read that article? Seems you're suffering from some confirmation bias and it's blinding you a little. And I will admit I thought polls were better historically, too. They've actually gotten significantly more accurate over the last 50 years, particularly starting in the 90s. Other than a blip in the 1998 mid terms, it in fact appears polls nationally were averaging being off by a mere 3 or 4 points. And that average includes polls outside that margin of error you bring up. https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2019/11/19/a-field-guide-to-polling-election-2020-edition/ You're decrying the accuracy of polls because you claim methodology is outdated. If anything, polls seem to be getting MORE accurate, not less. Sure Individual polls will get bits wrong, but if you take an average of polls and they are off by 3%, that's pretty decent, especially by historical standards over the last comment 70 years. Just looked at 22 polls from June 8th-June 14th, which you can do yourself clicking the link below, and Biden has an average of a 9.1% point lead. That's well outside the recent 3 or 4 point margin of error. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/ Even Trump's beloved FOX News and Rasmussen polls are really not looking good for him. You guys all just seem to hang your hats on "well... well... well 2016!!!" over here as a flawed argument as to why polls shouldn't be trusted when you 100% KNOW you'd be posting them if they were favorable for Trump. In fact that's exactly what happened over here in the momentary flash Trump's approval rating spiked in the beginning of the Pandemic. Now apparently approval ratings don't matter again.

Except in 2016 the final aggregate of polls had Clinton up by about 3%. She won the Popular vote by 2%. Yeah they were wrong because of our electoral system, which is why you're seeing so much attention being paid to swing states instead of the nation overall. And Biden is ahead in almost all of those swing states, too. You guys are just too funny.

While some of the polls were well outside the margin of error in 2016, even those polls were actually pretty accurate. The obvious screwup was accounting for the electoral rather than the popular vote. 2016 polls on average were quite accurate in terms of the popular vote, which Clinton won by 2%. And to answer the question I posed you, the 2018, 2014, 2012 and 2010 polls (you claimed polls were outdated 10 years ago) were also quite accurate, indicating a polling system that generally works and isn't broken or outdated. Many pollsters are using other methods than calling, though yes, that's still the primary method. So polling is still and has been pretty accurate. And then you throw in the human factor. You don't think these pollsters don't understand their screwup in 2016--perceived or real--and want to make sure they're as accurate as possible moving forward?

How old must I be? How were polls in 2018, 2014, 2012, 2010 and 2008?

What is there we had to learn? This is a legitimate question. The logic here seems to dismiss every poll because in 2016 they were wrong. You don't think that's an egregious example of cherry picking? Polls and pollsters aren't ALWAYS accurate, but they are most of the time. Yep, polls were wrong in 2016. That doesn't mean they aren't widely accurate as a whole. Typical Weathermen fallacy to mistrust all polls with that logic.

Since some people think we need more poll numbers: