Logic

This makes me sad. Just as Tom Brady retiring made me a little sad. Football is a GAME, it's entertainment, it's cinema. When the primary villains of the past 24 years of my football loving life exit stage left, it's a little bit sad. Palpatine and Darth Vader are gone. Who will I loathe now? One thing I will say is that I begrudgingly like and respect Bill Belichick. Tom Brady? Not so much. Still don't like that guy. But Belichick? Away from football, he's eloquent, smart, extremely knowledgeable about football, and even has a dry sense of humor that's pretty amusing. Would love to have a beer with that dude and talk football for hours. Aaannnyway...who are the villains now? Jackson Mahomes, Jalen Ramsey, and Christian Wilkins? Am I missing anybody?

I feel like several in this thread and elsewhere are missing the forest for the trees. It's not about the specifics of what Rodgers did or didn't say. What he did or didn't infer. It's about the fact that this whole interaction has resulted to ESPN -- a sports network -- devoting increasing amount of time on its airwaves to discussion of Jeffrey Epstein, anti-vax conspiracy theories, UFOs, and the petty bickering between two petty men. The entire network has recently been overshadowed by the sophomoric culture war debate between Rodgers and Kimmel. The Pat McAfee show and the network that airs it have become little more than the wrestling ring in which two giant egos are squaring off. It's silly, it's unproductive, and it's not good for business. Regardless of which side of the argument you're on -- and it is a silly, thinly verbally veiled, dog whistle filled, culture war argument -- the bottom line is that the Pat McAfee show and ESPN each had to do what was best for business. Period.

My ludicrous roster/personnel usage take of the day, which will make you say "Logic's an idiot": I think Leonard Fournette should get an equal snap (and usage) share with Cook. Perhaps even be the primary ball carrier. Cook has fumbled (or nearly fumbled) just enough to make me a bit nervous about the wet/snowy conditions this Sunday, plus he hasn't been super effective running the ball as of late. Cook has fumbled four times this season across 237 carries, which equates to one fumble per 59 carries. Fournette, meanwhile, has fumbled four times in his entire CAREER, spanning 1,144 carries, which equates to one fumble per 286 carries. Fournette also has that "I don't wanna tackle this dude on a 19 degree night" build and power. Give me more Playoff Lenny and less Cook this week.

I've been all over McDermott at times this year, including calling for the Bills to replace him after the season. The coaching at the end of the Dolphins game was not cautious or "scared" in any way. Once you go for it on 4th and 1 on your own 35 with four+ minutes left in the game, you've proven that you're coaching aggressively. If that didn't do it, then going for it AGAIN on 4th and 1 in the same drive should do the trick. As for running the ball instead of passing it downfield -- there's a fine line between smart and reckless. If the Bills had aggressively passed the ball in that instance and thrown two incomplete passes on 2nd and 3rd down, I'd be willing to bet you'd be here complaining in the other direction. It's a balancing act of how aggressive to be on both offense and defense in the waning moments. As someone who has lobbed plenty of criticism at our coaching this year, Sunday was NOT an instance to accuse them of over-cautiousness, in my opinion. They toed the line very well, managed to bleed significant time off the clock, were inches away from sealing the game on a Josh Allen sneak, and oh yeah, they won the game.

Are you honestly insinuating that the Bills -- who went for it on 4th down from their own 35 yard line and then went for it again on 4th down later in the same drive -- were "coaching scared"?

Am I crazy to want Linval Joseph active for this game, given the weather forecast and the Steelers' recent success running the ball? I'm not sure there's a position elsewhere on the roster where the Bills could realistically sacrifice a roster spot, and I can't recall ever seeing the Bills have five DTs active on game day, but if there was ever a week...

I agree. I'm surprised this is the first thread about it, tbh. Two guys stepped into prominent roles in a huge spot on Sunday -- Dane Jackson and Baylon Spector. Both acquitted themselves rather well. Neither gave up any particularly memorable plays, and the Bills defense shut the Phins out in the second half and limited them to 7 yards rushing. Jackson playing well was not as big a surprise, as he's done it before, and is a bona fide starting level corner in this league. Spector, though, was a HUGE surprise to me. I was worried when I saw him jog onto the field. I then proceeded not to think about him the rest of the game, because he just looked like he belonged. If he turns out to be a good player at Will, it'll be great news for our linebacker depth this year and beyond.

He has earned the right to be the head coach of the Buffalo Bills again next season, and that's as far as I'm willing to go.

Right. Exactly why I'm picking such a close score for the Steelers game. If the Bills kept shooting themselves in the foot that often in pristine conditions against the Dolphins defense, why wouldn't I think they're going to do the same or worse and snowy/windy conditions against the Steelers defense?

Each game is a unique and self-contained entity. I think the Bills can beat the Steelers by FOUR touchdowns at home. However, given the weather, the Steelers scoring defense and red zone defense rankings, and the Bills' recent propensity to commit bonehead mistakes, I predict a much closer game. If it were as simple as "we beat the Dolphins by a touchdown on the road, and they're better than the Steelers, and we're at home, ergo we'll beat the Steelers by multiple scores", then sports prognostication would be a much easier practice. The transitive property does not apply to the NFL.

Having watched the Pats game and the Chargers game....yes, I see how it is entirely feasible that the Steelers could win. It would involve the Bills basically beating themselves, which unfortunately, they have been all too eager to do at times this year. I maintain this will be a much closer game than it needs to be, will be anxiety inducing to the final whistle, and will be ugly and low scoring. 20-17 Bills.

Had a feeling this was coming. I think the "one last ride for Vrabel, Henry, and Tannehill" thing is what motivated the Titans to play so hard on Sunday and beat the Jags. I would say it doesn't matter because the Bills won anyway, but Josh admitted that was super glad to know the Bills already had a spot locked up when the Dolphins game kicked off, so there's really no knowing how he and the Bills would've played if they didn't have that peace of mind.

Based on the weather report and the opponent... Offensively: Run the ball, use Josh's legs as a weapon, hold on to the rock, and end drives in points (Steelers have a great scoring and red zone defense, so even FGs are okay). Defensively: Gap integrity and tackling. I'd love to say to go pass heavy early, get a big lead, and force Mason Rudolph to catch up. But based on recent weeks, I don't have enough faith in the Bills' passing game or ball security to suggest that that's a particularly wise strategy. As such, run and stop the run, unleash Josh's legs, and hold on to the football, and I think the Bills win it.

Thanks for this post. You're not wrong that the INTs are a problem that Josh needs to get under control going forward. That said, this season, the EPA lost by Josh Allen's INTs was a lot less than many other QBs, meaning he's throwing less "bad" INTs, or that the interceptions he throws are, relatively speaking, "less harmful". Furthermore, the overall aggressiveness and explosiveness of Josh Allen, I think, will always come with higher interception numbers than most. You take the bad with the good because, on the whole, it equals a more dangerous and productive QB and a higher scoring team, even WITH the turnovers. And ultimately, not all turnovers are created equally. Again, you're not wrong. I just want to put what you're saying into context. A few numbers to illustrate this point. "Josh Allen has lost less value to negative plays than any QB in the NFL" in 2023.

Thanks for the writeup. Enjoyed it, as always. You (and Collinsworth) are absolutely right. That WAS a playoff game. I thought three things stood out last night: Brandon Beane's free agent acquisitions (Harty and Sherfield -- quiet all year -- accounted for two of the three Bills TDs, Taylor Rapp had the game sealing interception), McDermott's masterful defensive coaching, and Josh Allen simply putting the team on his back and willing them to victory once again. He accounted for 91% of the Bills' offensive production on the night. 91%. And the 4th quarter? Well...he simply wanted it more than anyone else on the field, and that was the difference in the game. The defense -- and missing key players, mind you -- stifled the Phins in the second half, as you said, and held them to a full game TOTAL of 14 points. This was one of the top scoring offenses in NFL HISTORY, mind you, and they were playing at home. 14 points. The special teams, maligned much of the season, produced a touchdown. The offense, despite a bevy of mistakes, scored the go-ahead touchdown in the 4th quarter and bled enough time off the clock at the end -- including two gutsy 4th down decisions -- that the Dolphins simply didn't have enough time to mount a comeback. All three phases. Complimentary football. Just what Sean McDermott's been preaching all season. I said repeatedly earlier this season that I thought his time as Bills coach had come to an end and the team should move on from him. It's only fair that I point out, then, that in the biggest game of the season, his defense shone brightly, his team played the complimentary football he always preaches and displayed the mental toughness he always touts, and at the end of the night...the once totally-left-for-dead Buffalo Bills were the AFC's 2-seed. Masterful job by coach McDermott. Gosh, football is fun sometimes.

Yeah. It's hard to argue that the team is better with Sherfield as WR2 than Gabe Davis. Davis, for all his maddening inconsistency and disappearing acts, has at least shown the POTENTIAL to break games open, to catch long touchdown passes, to make highlight reel catches in big moments. Sherfield and Harty, for the most part, have not even shown that potential. In the Bills' long term plans? Nope. Shouldn't be. Helpful and probably necessary to have a good shot at a Lombardi this season? Likely so.

The thing with Belichick, in my opinion, is that the game has passed him by. It happens to all the greats. Don Shula didn't coach forever, either. I just don't think that a 71 year old man whose demeanor can best be described as "hard assed curmudgeon" and who has had many players come out in recent years saying that they were absolutely miserable playing for the Pats -- I don't think that guy can effectively enough connect with NFL players in 2023 to have the same type of success he used to have in New England. Players were willing to put up with that kind of leadership when it came with consistent Super Bowl contention and Tom Brady at QB. They shut up and did what was told of them because this was the great Bill Belichick, and he carried enough cache that it was worth the headache of playing for such a stern disciplinarian. A few years of non-contention and losing seasons on, though? Establishing a culture from the ground up with a new organization? Color me skeptical. If he gets inserted into the PERFECT situation -- good ownership and front office, quality quarterback, personnel ready to compete within the first year or two -- then maybe he makes some playoff pushes. But what are the odds he finds a situation like that? And even if he does, how long is he sticking around? I'm sorry, but if it's me, I'm not hiring Bill Belichick as my next head coach. Yes, he's an all-time great, and maybe the greatest to ever do it. No, that doesn't mean he's the right man to lead a franchise into the future in the year 2024.

I can't really say I noticed any drop-off once Gabe left the game. I don't expect him to be back with Buffalo after this season. That said, the more healthy receivers, the better, so hopefully he heals up in time for Pittsburgh.

My point is that the Steelers are going to have a "nothing to lose" mentality because they're a 7-seed with a 3rd string QB that barely made the playoffs, coming in as 7.5 point underdogs. You can absolutely bet that Mike Tomlin is going to be in their ears saying "no one believes in us or expects anything from us. We're supposed to lose this week. Show 'em who we are". Put simply, the pressure is on Buffalo, the 2-seed playing at home that has had demoralizing playoff exits two years in a row. The pressure is not on the 7-seed starting Mason Rudolph at QB, who no one thought would be there anyway.

I get the point you're making, but I think you have that part backwards.

I do think Douglas will be here for the rest of his career. He just screams "Process" and "long term team leader" for the Buffalo Bills. That said, I actually happen to think Benford is becoming a bona fide NFL CB1. That's not just my opinion, either. He seems to be near the top of many "least separation allowed" charts, PFF rankings, and other analytical measures of success. I happen to think that between Douglas and Benford, the Bills have TWO CB1s. Dane Jackson is about as good as it gets for a depth corner, as well. If only Kaiir Elam can rebound and be a productive player himself...

It ultimately doesn't matter because the Bills won, but I just want to say for the record... The refs were absolutely awful last night. They seemed intent on screwing the Bills at every turn. The Knox PI no-call that likely cost us 7. The targeting/helmet-to-helmet against Johnson that may also have cost us 7. The holding no-call on the Achange TD run. Some of the 4th quarter ball spots. Just an all-around atrocious effort by the officials -- again -- in a season chock full of them.

At this point, I just ASSUME that the Bills are going to draft or sign a late round or UDFA corner every single year that's going to be a baller. There are always prospects who have good size, zone eyes, and the willingness to tackle, but who fall on draft day due to below average measurables. Beane's staff is incredible at finding them, and McDermott's staff is incredible at coaching them up. Alex Austin looks to be another one, but unfortunately the Patriots stole him from us. No matter. We'll just find another this year.

Three main tangible factors: Brandon Beane's mid-season defensive acquisitions. I'm not sure the Bills would've won some of the games they did without Rasul Douglas and, to a lesser but still appreciable extent, Linval Joseph. Sean McDermott's defensive about-face after the bye. Coach said that he and his staff took a long, hard look at the defense during the bye week and did a lot of tinkering, and boy, did it show. Ever since the bye week, the Bills defense has been lights out. They held the Cowboys, Dolphins, and Chiefs each under 20 points. The last few games, they're giving up something like 16.5 points per game. An incredible turnaround, especially given the injuries and mid-season replacements. Joe Brady. No, it has not been perfect. No, I'm not sold that he's the long term answer at OC. Still, his insertion as playcaller came at just the right moment to save the season, IMO. He focused on the run game when he needed to, oversaw an offense that turned the ball over less, and injected some spark and life and fun into this offense. And one main intangible factor: Resilience. Call it perseverance, guts, fortitude, toughness...call it whatever you want. Even with all of the above factors...for this team to come together the way they did, shut out the haters and national perspective on them, overcome the turmoil around the McDermott article, and take care of business the way they did is extremely impressive. "Mental toughness" gets used so much that it can sometimes be eyeroll-inducing. But in this case, it's absolutely an accurate term. Kudos to these players and coaches. To win the AFC East and secure the 2-seed after everything they went through this year is massively impressive, no ifs, ands, or buts about it.