Logic

He already knows this after watching the kid play in 11 NFL games?! I wonder what he would have said about Jerry Hughes after watching him play in HIS first 11 NFL games?

Benoit is right a lot of the time, but he IS leaving out some things in his Tweets today. He says the Bills need to add two receivers to Sammy Watkins through the draft. While I agree that they need to draft a receiver, I would argue that either Holmes or Brown will be a fine #3. I don't think drafting two receivers (especially when they have only six picks) is wise. His opinion on Hughes also leaves out the fact -- as others have mentioned -- that the Bills DO have interior pass rushers on the d-line as well as Shaq Lawson at DE, who was a first round pick just last year and had quite the career at Clemson. All that being said: Do NOT be surprised (especially if the Bills trade down) if a pass rusher is selected on day one or two of this draft. It's a hidden need that a lot of Bills fans aren't thinking about but which McDermott needs to make his defense thrive.

I'm firmly on the "draft a QB if there's one you like" train. EVERY SINGLE YEAR your team is going to have positional draft needs. You can fill them all and have a great all around roster, but if you don't have a QB, it won't mean squat. Case in point: the Bills have had NUMEROUS rosters in the past 17 years that -- with a good QB at the helm -- were playoff caliber. Because they have had such AWFUL offenses for so many years, though, said rosters were wasted. How many quality players do we need to see come and go before we realize that it's a QB driven league and, without one, the Bills will always be spinning their wheels? If there's not a QB they like, then fine, draft positional players and look for a QB next year. If there IS one they like, though, I hope they draft him REGARDLESS of positional needs.

I disagree. As I stated in my post, I think it's the other way around. I think if it was Belichick getting a 5th round pick in exchange for a backup running back (that he had signed off the scrap heap for vet minimum to begin with), everyone on here would be calling him a genius. Flipping a running back who's about to turn 28 for a 5th round pick and 1million+ in cap space just doesn't seem like bad business to me. Even if the Bills simply turn around and spend the pick they acquired on a running back, said player will be 6 years younger and a good deal cheaper. I liked Gillislee a lot, but I think people are somewhat underrating the value of a 5th round pick in a deep draft and somewhat overrating the importance of a backup running back.

Wow. 69 pages. I think this is allllll about the fact that it's the Patriots, and that it shook out in terms of an RFA being signed to an offer sheet. If someone had asked me before the Pats made their offer: "Would you trade Mike Gillislee for a 5th round pick and $1million+ in cap space, would you do it?", I'd have said "yes, in a heartbeat!". Furthermore, if things were reversed, and it was BELICHICK that signed a scrap heap FA, got two years of good production out of him, then flipped him for a 5th round pick when he was about to turn 28 and likely used the pick to replace him with a younger, much cheaper player, everyone would be gushing about what a genius he is.

All the "who he surrounds himself with" stuff combined with the lingering injury have soured me on Foster. Not to mention the fact that a will LB at 10 does not represent good value.

I am more torn during the lead-up to this draft than I have ever been before. On the one hand, there are some really talented playmakers that would drastically improve the Bills. Hooker, Adams, Foster, Reddick, M Williams, Davis, Howard...Sitting at 10, the Bills will have a shot at quality player, and they have glaring needs at WR, S, LB, RT, and CB. On the other hand, they are perfectly situated to draft a franchise QB if they believe one is available in this draft. They are sitting at #10, have a starter in place to be a "bridge", and have a new head coach in place. The contract re-structuring they did with Tyrod screams "not sold on him" as QB of the future. They are in the PERFECT spot to land a QB this draft. While drafting positional players year after year without having a franchise QB in place has resulted in utter mediocrity and 17 years of no playoffs, the Bills also have lots of needs and only six draft picks with which to attempt to fill them. I'd hate to reach for a QB and strike out while missing out on some elite level positional talent. I'd also hate to draft a bazillionth cornerback and continue to not have a franchise QB. Everyone always gripes that the Bills don't do enough to address the QB position. Well, they're sitting at 10 and with a new head coach in place. What better time? Really, really difficult choice this year. Glad I'm not the one who has to make it.

I do agree that the Bills should avoid drafting players with obvious character red flags in this draft. I ESPECIALLY don't like the things I'm reading about the company Foster keeps. It seems like the quickest thing to bring down the career of a talented player is his surrounding himself with a bunch of idiots. If that is in fact the case with Foster, I'm not so sure I'd have any interest in drafting him at all. Also, the later into the draft it is, the more risk I'm okay with the Bills taking in drafting someone. Karlos Williams in the 5th is a perfect example of the good AND bad side of drafting character risks. His rookie year, he made Whaley look like an absolute genius. Then, in his very first offseason as an NFL player, he wrecked his whole career. Luckily, all that was lost was a 5th round pick. If it's late in the draft, I'm okay with risks and long shots *cough*Chad Kelly in the 7th*cough*.

I like what you're saying in theory, but it's not always so simple. The greatest quarterback in Bills history was Jim Kelly. At the time he was drafted, he was an arrogant prick who thought he was too good for Buffalo. Conversely, EJ Manuel was said to have all the off-field things you could want in a quarterback. Great leader, great studier, hard worker, "presence", commands a room, etc, etc..He led the Bills to exactly zero playoff appearances. Setting aside the Bills, you have cases like Brett Favre (addicted to painkillers, partier, didn't take game seriously) or Chris Carter (drug addiction, bad attitude, self destructive behavior) who went on to be Hall of Famers and guys who were totally clean off the field (Christian Ponder, Aaron Maybin) who wound up being total busts. Character is important. So is talent. So are measurables. It's not so simple.

Today is the first time I've heard this, but: Apparently, multiple scouts are worried about the people with whom Foster is surrounding himself. That off-the-field tomfoolery, together with his "leaving the combine because doctors made him angry" incident may cause him to drop.

Should probably wait until he actually LEAVES to make this assessment. Because if he DOESN'T leave, then it means Whaley played this exactly correctly. Just like he did with Groy.

Are you speaking from a position of expertise in NFL contract negotiations?

Was just wondering if you had found your way over to this forum. Glad to see that you have.

The only thing about assigning proper draft value to players is that teams often seem to do so incorrectly. Case in point: The Bills are said to have had a 4th round grade on Russell Wilson. They stood pat and what happened? Seattle placed a higher value on him and took him before the Bills could. Likewise, how are all 32 teams' valuing of Dak Prescott as a 4th rounder looking right about now? To be clear, I'm not saying you should overdraft a guy or place a 1st round grade on a guy that you think doesn't deserve it. What I AM saying, though, is that the whole IDEA of deciding "what round player X 'should' be drafted in" is an objective and imperfect exercise. I am also saying that with the quarterback position, if you have a strong conviction that a guy can be a Franchise Quarterback and can lead you to a championship, how early is too early? If the goal is "let's just take a QB in the middle rounds and see how he turns out in a couple years", then fine. That's what you're doing. But if the goal is "let's identify and draft a guy that we think can lead us to a Super Bowl victory", then how early is "too early"? People often talk about draft value as if it's an absolute. In reality, draft value -- as determined by the 32 teams in the NFL -- is proven to be incorrect CONSTANTLY. Late round guys wind up being "first round caliber", and guys taken in the first round wind up busting. You still do your best to assign value, of course, but when it comes to the QB position in particular, I'm okay with "overdrafting" a guy if you think he can make you a perennial contender...bearing in mind that draft valuation is an objective and flawed process anyway.

Just remember that new head coaches often want to hand pick their own quarterback. You could say "well, he picked Tyrod!", except that the contract restructuring and "out" after 2 years suggest that he isn't committing to Tyrod long term. McDermott also specifically said they want to address the QB position "both for the short term AND the long term", which was a pretty conspicuous use of language, especially when combined with the aforementioned contract restructuring. And like I said above, I bet McDermott figures he won't be drafting top 10 very often, and that's where you need to be picking to have a shot at a franchise QB. Let's face it: MOST rookie QBs are "projects". Yes, some are good right away, but not most. And of those that are, they are usually drafted in the top 5. If I was to guess, I'd say the Bills have deemed that they are currently in perfect position to draft a QB early. It's the first year of a new head coach's tenure, they have a decent stopgap QB in place on a team friendly two year deal, and they're drafting top 10. They're not likely to be this well positioned again in the near future, unless they regress significantly and have an even higher pick next year, which I don't see happening. If they think one of these guys is the real deal, they should draft him. If he has to sit for a year or two, so what...Tyrod can hold down the fort until he's ready. One more thing: Whaley wants out of the "QB purgatory" he's mentioned. Again, when better to take a swing at that?

Firstly: I would really love to know how everyone has reached the consensus that the Bills were "set to take Dak in the 4th round" last year. Yes, they visited with him and were reported to like him. Whaley is historically a height/weight/speed guy, though, and I get the feeing that the Bills were gonna select Cardale Jones regardless of whether Prescott was there or not. Can anyone point out to me what gives them the belief that Dak would have been the guy over Jones in round 4? Is there ANY objective truth to this, or is it just a case of wishful thinking that has somehow become Bills fan fact? Secondly: This is too much due diligence to be just a smokescreen. When your coach, GM, and especially your OWNER are looking at every top quarterback available in a coming draft -- in a year in which the only legitimate QB on your roster is on a cheap two year deal and the coach has stated he wants to address the QB position "for the short term AND the long term" -- you'd better believe that QB at 10 is an option. If they think one of these guys is a franchise quarterback, they likely won't risk trading down and missing out on him, ESPECIALLY with Cleveland sitting there at 12. Personally, I've come around on the idea of a QB in round one. The Bills can draft all the cornerbacks, receivers, and linebackers they want, but until they have a franchise quarterback, they'll never go further than the Wild Card round...and even THAT hasn't been achievable in the past 17 seasons! There will be plenty of good defensive players and even receivers in rounds 2-7. If they think one of these QBs is the real deal, they ought to pull the trigger THIS season. Forget perpetually saying "NEXT year is the year for good QBs!". It's nonsense. And never forget that new coaches often want to pick their OWN quarterbacks. In McDermott's mind, he likely doesn't envision picking top 10 too often. This is as good an opportunity as the Bills are likely to get to draft a top signal caller.

I think it depends on who they want. If it's Watson or Trubisky, they may need to take him at 10. If it's Mahomes or Peterman, they may be hoping to trade down and select him later while recouping a pick or two. If they could manage to trade down, draft a QB, AND add a 2nd or 3rd round pick, that would really be ideal.

Agreed. I don't think the owner of the football team is just playing along with a smokescreen setup. I think the Bills are legitimately interested in drafting one of the top 4 quarterbacks. We'll see in a couple weeks.

I think Bills fans should get used to the idea that QB @ #10 is a very real possibility. I'm not saying it's a lock, but when a team spends time working out every top QB prospect in the draft, not to mention Tyrod's "bridge" contract and McDermott saying "we want to address the QB position for the present AND the future"...it sure looks like more than a smokescreen. Sure, they could just be trying to bait a team to trade up to 10, but something tells me that team owners don't often come along to workouts just to set up a smokescreen. Honestly, they are in a perfect position to take a quarterback. Top 10 pick, decent starter to buy said pick a couple years on the bench, and a new head coach. The timing is right.

Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama. McDermott recently stated in an interview that the success of his defense is predicated on cornerbacks who can tackle well. Given Humphrey's tackling skill, size, playing style, and projected fit in a Cover 3 zone defense, I could see him being the pick. In this scenario, Watson, both safeties, Lattimore, and Foster would already have been selected.

Fair enough. But if various articles are to be believed, Whaley impressed upon all those he interviewed for HC after Marrone quit the importance of giving Manuel another shot, stating that Marrone had messed him up, etc...Many GMs have historically not been nearly so attached to a QB pick after a new head coach is brought in. They gave him every opportunity to re-gain his starting spot. I would venture to guess that the preferred outcome of the Manuel-Cassel-Taylor QB competition was EJ winning. Then he hit the hospitality tent with an errant pass. Anyway...I'm not denying that they met with Dak or liked him. I'm only saying that in my opinion, it was always going to be Cardale. I suppose we'll never know for sure.

I don't buy the "Bills would've drafted Dak but missed out due to Ragland trade!" narrative at all. Whaley is and always has been a height/weight/speed guy. He wants a big quarterback with a big arm. It's why he refused to abandon EJ and why he's STILL not sold on Tyrod Taylor as the Bills' franchise QB. Personally, I think he was gonna draft Cardale Jones regardless of Dak's availability. Just my opinion based on Whaley's clear preferences for the position and for football players in general.

If his last name wasn't Kelly, no Bills fan would have any interest in him whatsoever. That's all I'll say. If he lasts until the 7th, take a flyer. Otherwise, stay away.

Nah. The Falcons only lost because they over thought things and passed instead of ran the ball when they were in field goal range. Add that 3 to go up 11 with 4 minutes left and they'd have won. Make that TWO Super Bowls the Pats* have won now because the NFC team overthought things.

Why be worried? The Seahawks, with their super simple C3 zone defense, were one poorly timed red zone slant away from beating the Pats* in the Super Bowl. The Giants, also running an aggressive but somewhat simplistic zone-based 4-3, beat the Pats* in the Super Bowl TWICE. To add to that, I would say I'm actually MORE optimistic about McDermott's defense vs the Pats*. Why? The big nickel he plans to run will be helpful in stopping the TE-centric offense that NE likes to run. Oh, and one MORE thing: McDermott is known as being methodical, obsessively process driven, and very concerned with minute details. That sounds like EXACTLY the kind of mind we need to finally have a chance to beat Belichick.