Logic

This guy is much more Milano than Edmunds. Those expecting him to take over at MIKE are in for disappointment, I suspect. He's not a MIKE. I think he CAN player there if he has to fill in for injury or something, but he's a WILL. When the Bills DO have to play 4-3 -- say, against the run-heavy Colts and Ravens of the world -- they'll now be able to do so while remaining much more viable against the pass. Playing nickel against these run heavy teams allowed them to get trampled by the ground game. Playing 4-3 against these teams left them vulnerable to play-action passing and second level completions. Now, they can play more 4-3 than they have in the past if they choose to. I still expect them to be primarily a nickel defense, but when they DO go base, it should be much more effective with someone like Bernard in the lineup. Versatility and unpredictability on defense. Versatility and unpredictability on offense. These are the themes of this draft. so far.

My counter argument is that football fans and draftniks get way too attached to their pre-draft rankings. We read these draft guides and watch a few Youtube highlight videos and think that all our perceived values are unimpeachable. We think that we know -- without ever having seen these players in person, ever having watched ACTUAL tape, ever having interviewed them and put them up on the whiteboard -- as much as the professional scouts and GMs who HAVE done those things. So you get attached to your Lindy's or Athlon Sports or Dane Brugler draft guide ranking and consider it gospel, and then when the player gets picked earlier, you say it's a "reach", and if they get picked later, you say it's a "steal". This year's draft, more than any other before it, hasn't proven this once and for all: Fans know nothing. Media knows nothing. This isn't to say we have to blindly accept or defend all the picks that teams make. Sometimes they're dumb picks. So you may be right. Maybe Bernard was a reach. Or maybe your perceived value of him is wrong, and the pro scouts are right, and he'll play valuable sub-package downs for two years and then take over for Milano and save the Bills $7.5M.

Not sure if this has been posted, but this video shows that Cook was much more excited to be picked by the Bills than the broadcast video made it seem:

At first the pick had me scratching my head. I thought a guard or a safety would have been the pick. Then I remembered that the Bills never replaced Klein and that, even though they're a base nickel, they DO still need a viable third linebacker. I also remembered that Milano can tend to miss a bit of time due to injury here and there, and in general, it's a good thing to have a guy who can fill in at MIKE or WILL if Edmunds or Milano gets dinged up. Lastly, I view this more as an indication that the Bills will re-sign Edmunds and potentially let Milano walk. They won't want to have a ton of money tied up in the linebacker position, but I don't see Bernard as an Edmunds replacement. I see him as a Milano clone and eventual Milano replacement. Lastly, the fact that McDermott is really tight with Baylor coach Dave Aranda, who surely gave Bernard a ringing endorsement, and the fact that Bernard is said to be a tremendous "heart and soul" team leader with impeccable football IQ and extremely high character were surely the deciding factors on this one. This is one of those picks that seem a bit curious on draft night but then, a few years down the road, is a staple of our football team. I think he's gonna be a player.

I wasn't here to discuss the pick last night, and I haven't combed through all 21 pages, so perhaps this has been said, but... The Bills decided last year in the second regular season Patriots game that the primary way they were gonna beat two-high coverage going forward was to throw checkdowns and dumpoffs and utilize the running back in the passing game. They said "to hell with running the defense out of it, we're gonna THROW them out of it by utilizing the vacated space in the middle of the field". Josh was patient and hit Singletary a bunch, the plan worked, and the Patriots shifted tactics. Cook's addition has a few purposes: to provide a back who can actually make these dumpoffs and checkdowns DANGEROUS. To turn a 3 yard pass into a 12 yard gain. To help revive our long-dead screen game. To add speed and home-run ability to our running back stable, which it currently lacks. And finally, he's not JUST a dumpoff/checkdown back. He can legitimately split out not only into the slot but out wide and win routes against corners. You'll see him start out wide and then motion into the back field, or vice versa. You'll see him in the slot. You'll see him running reverses. He's gonna do A LOT in this offense. Picture the offense coming out in 12 personnel -- Davis, Diggs, Knox, Howard, Cook. This screams "running formation" to the defense. But then the offense goes empty. The linebackers are now forced to try to cover Knox, Howard, and Cook. THAT'S the future of the Bills offense. Still passing it, still spreading it out, but doing so with less predictable and more versatile pro personnel.

This comment shows your lack of familiarity with James Cook.

Thought you wanted weapons for Josh? There's no universe where an explosive pass-catching back that can split out wide and run routes isn't that.

We'll never know for sure, but I think Elam fits the profile of what this regime looks for in first rounders more than McDuffie. They like to get young, elite athletes who have room to grow, then turn them over to their coaching staff and entrust them to coach the kids up. To that end, as awesome as McDuffie already is, I don't believe he has the same room for growth or as a high a ceiling as Elam. I think McDuffie will be a high floor, dependable player who starts in this league for a decade+. A very safe pick. I think Elam is a "swing for the fences" guy who, though his floor is not as high as McDuffie's, has a higher ceiling. There's also the physical attributes of Elam vs McDuffie -- particularly McDuffie's arms being much shorter than this staff prefers -- that make me question their interest in McDuffie. We'll never know for sure. It's possible that you're right. I also think there's reason to believe you might not be.

Some quotes from scouts about Elam from a Bob McGinn article on Tyler Dunne’s website: https://www.golongtd.com/p/what-the-scouts-say-about-bills-first?s=w AFC scout: “I think he’s the best corner. Good size, super athletic. He can do everything athletically as far as speed and recovery. He’s got poise. He has the ability to play the ball. His cover skills are exceptional. If you’re going to knock him a little bit, he’s not a great (run) support guy. He’s not real aggressive or strong, but he’s athletic enough when he wants to do it. His character is really good. Pretty good shot for the top 15.” NFC scout: “He’s talented. Not silky smooth in his movements but he’s explosive and he’s a real good athlete. He plays with a lot of damn confidence and swag. He’s got excellent feel. He jumps routes. He tends to drift some. Bump skills are good. He can run support but he’s less to be desired in the run game. He’s one of those guys that says, ‘Y’all go do that. I gotta tackle? All right, let me jump down on the ground.’ He’s first-round talent. It’s where his mind is.” AFC scout: “He was the best corner I saw. I estimated his speed at 4.55. Needs to be more physical against the run. Was excellent against Alabama.” NFC scout: “He wouldn’t hit the ground if he fell out of bed. Nobody cares anymore but very, very, very marginal against the run. Nonexistent. He’s got some real talent. He’s more talented than (Ahmad) Gardner. Real good to exceptional athlete. Has the size and length for a starting NFL corner. He has marginal strength and effort against the run. Top of the second round.”

I disagree. I think Bill the coach is the greatest of all time, but Bill the GM is below average and should have been replaced years ago. Many Patriots fans agree.

I understand why they took a corner at 23 and I’m fine with it… …but it’s time to spend some damn draft capital on offense! I want a WR,TE, RB, and OG. That’s four positions. We have six picks left. For the love of God, let’s get QB1 some help!

Scout the player, not the helmet.

I had forgotten that Cowboys presumed CB2 Kelvin Joseph is in legal trouble and is potentially facing charges. Given that fact, Elam’s fit in a Dan Quinn defense, and the sullen looking Cowboys draft room… I think there’s at least a pretty good chance the Cowboys would have taken Elam if we hadn’t jumped up. At the very least, it’s easy to see why Beane thought it was a strong possibility.

Beane's gonna pick a DII guard just to piss off the complainers.

At least we didn't take Cole Strange in the first round 😳

Can play this game the other way too : "God forbid we roll with the corners we got and White or Jackson is hurt come playoff time...Siran *****in Neal time!

Let's use a more relevant example then: How did Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson do against the Chiefs' WRs in the playoffs?

I would love for anyone to try to explain why it's a BAD THING that the Bills -- in desperate need of a corner -- took the kid who allowed the second lowest passer rating in the FBS the past 3 years.

SECOND IN THE ENTIRE FBS IN PASSER RATING ALLOWED. SECOND. College production + speed and size + elite work ethic + he's only 20. Pretty good, Beane. Pretty, pretty, prreeeettttttty good.

Can I borrow your crystal ball when you're done with it?

Let's use a different example then. How did Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson do against the Chiefs' receivers in the playoffs?

Whole lotta "process" going on in those quotes.

We have no idea what those guys know that we don't. Maybe they had intel that Dallas liked Elam. Maybe Baltimore told them that other teams were trying to trade up with them. We have no idea. It's possible Beane got stupid and antsy, but it's also possible that they had intel that gave them cause to do what they did.

Yeah the Bengals and their all-world WRs totally whooped Jalen Ramsey and the Rams for the Lombardi trophy. Oh wait.