Logic

If there’s room left after all those who didn’t get to participate last time have chosen, I’ll take whoever’s left. Preferences: Patriots (yuck) Ravens Colts

I know AJ was a 2nd round pick just two seasons ago, but his roster spot should not be guaranteed. He hasn’t showed enough to warrant it. Bring in Hughes, let everyone compete.

The only thing he’s missing is actual big time college production. He also leads the class in drops with an over 12% drop rate! He could be Metcalf, or he could be Heyward-Bey.

True, but this also ignores the fact that the Bills gave up 35+ points. Two straight years of giving up 35+ in the playoffs to the Chiefs. We’ve addressed one of the issues — the pass rush — but not the other: the cornerbacks. I’m pro “load up the offense”, too, but we can’t just pretend that a better cornerback situation wouldn’t have given us a better chance at victory, 13 seconds be damned.

Fair enough. Either way — two or four — it’s pretty pathetic in 50+ years of existence.

It is not real. The Jets have won the East four times. The Bills have won the East 12 times. We’re both lagging behind the Dolphins and Patriots.

Color me surprised that Gilmore took $11M per year over $3M and “a chance to be the best version of himself”.

Kaiir Elam. Not a McBeane CB.

Seems like just yesterday we were sitting here saying “Bills have no cap space, how will they afford any free agents or to re-sign any players?” Now here we sit, having signed Von freaking Miller plus a bunch of other dudes, re-signed Diggs, McKenzie, and Bates, and still sitting on $10M in cap space. Amazing. Beane is a baller.

RB OL CB LB TE OL Dark blue

Just came here to post this. I haven't spent much time thinking about Treylon Burks to the Bills, but I have to be honest: the idea of a pass catching corps of Diggs, Davis, Burks, Knox, and Howard is incredibly enticing. The size and speed mix of that group would be really hard for defenses to contain. Not only that, but Burks and Davis are such big receivers that the run blocking prowess they could add would really open things up for Kenneth Walker. As long as the Bills brass felt that McCollum could handle CB2 work to start the season, I'd be all for this draft. I also think Stout to the Bills is likely in real life.

How is the “if you want to add a premium WR, it means you don’t believe in Gabe Davis” take still a thing? Between Beasley and Sanders, the Bills lost 182 targets from last season, and have only added a cheap, one year, slot only WR to the roster. They’re also in 3 or 4 WR sets over 80% of the time. If Davis or Diggs were to miss time with injury, it would get ugly at outside WR. Lastly, with the exploding contracts of WRs, adding a talented, cost controlled option at the position for four or five years makes a ton of sense, especially after paying Diggs. So yes, I believe in Davis. I bet he’ll be an outstanding WR2. Push him to the moon! But for all the reasons I just listed, the Bills still need to add a WR within the first few rounds.

Kaiir Elam doesn’t feel like a McBeane player to me. At all. Nothing about him fits the profile of what they seem to like in corners, “DNA”, ceiling, or 1st round picks. I don’t see it.

I’m starting to think this is about more than just the article. Is everything ok? Anything you’d like to talk about? You’re in a safe space.

I take it the author is off your Christmas card list?

Ok.

Aside from throwing a football well, the thing I really like about Josh is that he doesn’t sexually assault massage therapists.

My goal with this mock was to make all 8 selections the Bills currently hold, but on players that I think would all make the 53-man roster. Big risks in rounds 2 and 3 on "traits" guys that need to be coached up, but we can't say that Beane doesn't like to roll the dice on these types in real life (Allen, Edmunds, Knox)

Noooooooooo. As @DrDawkinstein mentioned, Gilbert, Norm, and Saget were all kind of in the same category of awesomeness when it comes to comedy. I believe they were all pretty close with each other, too. I have so much respect for Gilbert. Among so many other things, I'll always remember the time he tried making 9/11 jokes soon after the attacks at a roast, got mercilessly booed, and pivoted to telling one of the best versions of The Aristocrats joke ever, which absolutely killed. It's always sad when someone who brought a lot of joy into your life passes away. For anyone who believes in an afterlife, the comedy clubs there must have jam-packed lineups every night. Edit (lol) :

This article is behind a paywall. It's excellent, and is representative of the great stuff that the Athletic publishes regularly. If you can get one of those $1 per month trial deals, especially around draft season, I highly suggest you do it. As for this article, I find the discussion of the ever evolving monetary and roster value of various positions fascinating, particularly linebacker. This article pertains to the Bills in three ways: it talks about the escalating prices of retaining premiere linebackers, it discusses Edmunds specifically, and it goes into detail about two top linebacker prospects that might be available to the Bills in the first round. I'll post some snippets, but it's a long piece. https://theathletic.com/3244619/2022/04/12/nfl-draft-devin-lloyd-nakobe-dean/ The NFL draft is the perfect nexus of contextual value. Each pick requires teams to consider not just how good a prospect is, but also how valuable the player is given the position, team needs and the dollar amount attached to that pick under the rookie wage scale. As contracts balloon for cornerstone positions such as quarterback, offensive tackle, edge rusher, cornerback and wide receiver, how a team invests capital into less glamorous positions greatly affects a franchise’s trajectory. No defensive position has been hit harder by the changing financial landscape than linebacker, once a glamorous and lucrative position to play. Stars will always be paid — the five largest linebacker contracts are still commensurate with elite role player contracts — but the threshold for what it costs to acquire starter to plus-starter talent at the second level of the defense is arguably beneath other positions that spend the majority of the game aligned between the hashes. The current threshold for acquiring guards who can perform at a starter to plus-starter level falls around $3-5 million annually. For tight ends, expect to pay $5-7 million for reliable veteran production. Running backs, for all the depression in that market and the depth of talent available, still command $4-6 million for starter-level returns. But at linebacker, nearly every player slated to earn north of just $4 million in 2022 has played at or near a Pro Bowl or All-Pro level in their career. What does that mean, in the context of previous drafts? Unless peak Fred Warner is in the green room, it doesn’t make much sense to spend a top-15 pick on a linebacker — if a team ought to pick a linebacker in the first round at all. The first round of Dane Brugler’s latest mock draft features two linebackers, Georgia’s Nakobe Dean and Utah’s Devin Lloyd. But the last five years of first-round linebackers is a testament to the crapshoot nature of looking for franchise cornerstone-level performers in the first 32 picks. From 2017 until now, here’s how first-round linebackers have panned out: • Jarrad Davis, 2017, no. 21 overall: Davis’ snaps have shrank each season since 2018, and Detroit declined his fifth-year option. After spending the 2021 season playing for the Jets, Davis is returning to Detroit on a one-year, league-minimum deal. • Reuben Foster, 2017, no. 31 overall: Foster has not played an NFL snap since 2018, following legal trouble (stemming from separate arrests centered on drug and weapon offenses and a domestic dispute, respectively) and torn knee ligaments that landed him on injured reserve for two consecutive seasons. Most recently, Foster was invited to workout for the Miami Dolphins, but there has been little reporting suggesting a return to the league is imminent. • Roquan Smith, 2018, no. 8 overall: Smith has started 59 of the 61 games he’s been on the active roster in Chicago, and he’s logged more than 90 solo tackles and 10+ tackles for loss in each of the last two seasons, making second team All-Pro both times. The Bears picked up Smith’s fifth-year option, which covers this coming season, and all signs indicate he will be a mainstay in Chicago’s defense through at least one more contract. • Tremaine Edmunds, 2018, no. 16 overall: Edmunds has been the Bills’ starting middle linebackers in each of 61 games he’s made the active roster. Edmunds had his fifth-year options picked up by the Bills, and he made a pair of Pro Bowls (2019, 2020). I’d expect Edmunds to receive a second contract in Buffalo after the 2022 season. • Leighton Vander Esch, 2018, no. 19 overall: Vander Esch has lost most of the shine from his breakout rookie campaign, when he logged 102 solo tackles and made second team All-Pro. Nearly half of his career solo tackles came in his first 16 career games, and the Dallas Cowboys declined his fifth-year option before resigning him to a one-year, $2 million dollar contract. • Rashaan Evans, 2018, no. 22 overall: Evans started 50 of the 59 games while on the Titans’ active roster, but mostly middling production led to Tennessee phasing him out of an every-down starter role. The Titans declined to pick up Evans’ fifth-year option, and he’s now playing on a one-year deal with the Atlanta Falcons. • Devin White, 2019, no. 5 overall: Short of Fred Warner, White’s resume stands at or near the top of the position in his first three years. Finishing just short of 100 solo tackles in 2020, and 90 in 2021, White has made an All-Pro or Pro Bowl team in each of the last two seasons. I expect White to be the next linebacker to reset the top of the market following his rookie contract. • Devin Bush, 2019, no. 10 overall: 2022 is a pivotal season for Bush, after playing in just five games in 2020 and logging just 41 solo tackles and two tackles for loss in 16 games last year. Bush had a strong rookie season, but he’ll need to replicate a similar level of production to make the Pittsburgh Steelers comfortable with picking up his near-$11 million dollar fifth year option. • Isaiah Simmons, 2020, no. 8 overall: Simmons certainly needed to be walked slowly into his role as the Cardinals’ leading linebacker, but year two provided much more reason for optimism than his rookie campaign. Simmons effectively doubled his tackling production and started in all 17 games in 2021, but he will need a breakout year soon to justify Arizona retaining his contract through year five. • Kenneth Murray, 2020, no. 23 overall: The Chargers signed Troy Reeder this off-season after the departure of Kyzir White, which says plenty about the franchise’s internal evaluation of Murray. Given Murray logged just 337 snaps in 2021 — and one start after week 12 — it’s safe to assume that the Chargers aren’t expecting much beyond depth and special teams roles for Murray in year three. • Jordyn Brooks, 2020, no. 27 overall: The NFL’s solo tackle leader in 2021, Brooks showed enough to make Seattle comfortable with letting Seahawks legend Bobby Wagner walk in the offseason. I don’t expect perennial Pro Bowls or All-Pro selections for Brooks, but another 80-plus solo tackle season will give the Texas Tech product a strong argument for the Seahawks picking up his fifth-year option. • Patrick Queen, 2020, no. 28 overall: It’s difficult to evaluate (or even contextualize) the 2021 season for the Ravens, given the Baltimore’s poor injury luck. Queen’s tackle has production remained steady over two NFL seasons, but the Ravens will need him to take on a bigger role in coverage and show up more consistently in the run game in years three and four. • Micah Parsons, 2021, no. 12 overall: As it currently stands, Parson is the best football player to be drafted last year, making first team All-Pro as a rookie and finishing as the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year. Parsons logged production in the backfield consistent with a top-five pass rusher, and he only played on the line of scrimmage in obvious passing situations. Thirteen sacks and 20 tackles for loss per season is probably unsustainable, but playing for defensive coordinator Dan Quinn allows Parsons to maximize his athletic gifts. • Zaven Collins, 2021, no. 16 overall: He played just 205 defensive snaps last year, but Arizona losing Jordan Hicks in free agency signals the franchise is ready to put more on the young linebacker’s shoulders. However, last season’s tape showed a linebacker who was still a half-step behind the speed of the NFL game. • Jamin Davis, 2021, no. 19 overall: Davis started half of his 16 games in his rookie campaign and delivered average production. Washington drafted Davis in the hopes that his athleticism would lend itself towards a coverage-first linebacker with enough size to handle playing in the box when needed, but year one has not provided clarity as to whether that’s a long term role for the Kentucky product. Making no assumptions about breakout years or a linear, upward trajectory for any of these players, just six appear to be valuable enough for a long-term second contract with the franchise that drafted them — and each of these players is a star, or close to it. A 40% hit rate isn’t too far from what you’d likely find at other positions drafted in the first round, but at least five of these players either already signed or are tracking toward playing on a “prove-it” deal for their next contract, leaving a huge delta in potential outcomes. The top of this year’s linebacker class doesn’t do much to calm any anxiety about spending a first-round pick on a second-level defender. Dean and Lloyd are jack-of-all-trades types, essential in the modern game, but their play styles and body types aren’t all that similar, leaving some uncertainty about where the consensus may be for the two prospects. [The article then goes into detail about Lloyd and Dean's strengths, weaknesses, and whether either player is worthy of a first round pick. Suffice it to say that Lloyd seems like a fit for what the Bills like to do, but will likely be gone by 25, while Dean doesn't really seem like a fit for the Bills defense. His teammate, Quay Walker, not mentioned in this piece, is likely more to the Bills' tastes with regard to playing style].

God help your time management if there’s ever a prospect named Flutie.

I should’ve known you’d look into him.

The draft will go a long way toward answering this question for us.

Diggs’ biggest strengths — his route running savvy, release package, technical prowess, and strong hands — do not seem like the type of attributes that are going to wane too greatly as he ages. He’s also incredibly hard working and dedicated to his body health and to being great, so I see him keeping himself in top shape. I can understand why some are worried, but I think he’ll be just fine through at least age 33, which is all we need from him.