oldmanfan
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Posts posted by oldmanfan
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11 minutes ago, Logic said:
Thanks to all the posters so far who took this thread in the spirit of fun in which it was intended and contributed your alternate draft.
Fascinating to read everyone's preferences.
I applaud your idea. I just wouldn’t have a clue because I don’t follow college football
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Just now, Matt_In_NH said:
I agree with your concept here except that you have access to a large chunk of data online from people who are educated so you can kind find consensus among "experts" which is what most do who complain. My only point is you have access to more than just a tiny fraction but you don't have conversations, background, medical, ex coach conversations etc. You do have all tape, measurables' etc. When Beane chooses someone other than I expect, for instance Coleman when many thought he was much further down, my reaction is to ask myself what information did Beane and his staff have to make that choice over the others instead of "OMG how dumb". People think very highly of their internet research.
You’ve hit on what I think is an important point. The immeasurables. Beane really went after guys with leadership qualities this year as an example.
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With so many worried about the top pick’s 40 time, and who on the team can “take the top” off the opponent’s defense, I’d love to find info on just how many times Josh actually threw the ball 40 yards or more lasts year. Or how many times in the league total. Anybody have a resource? Just relying on memory it’s not very many times.
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19 minutes ago, soflabillsfan1 said:
The username changes but the poor takes didn't. Glad to see you're still kicking.
Poor takes? I’m the voice of experience and wisdom!
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Just now, soflabillsfan1 said:
Are you indybillsfan?
Used to be
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3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
I guess you and OP can pat each other on the back from your emotional high ground? Like what is the point of this seriously, nobody thinks they know more than an actual NFL front office.
I wouldn’t be sure of that if you read posts from the last couple days.
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2 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:
You give these guys way too much credit.
Like Billy Beane said in Money Ball " You don't know"
These scouts and GMs are more experienced than us. No doubt. But they are not infallible and who is to know if they are even good at their job. I have to be correct 100% of the time in my job. What is the success rate for these guys?
I mean how many first round absolute busts do we have to list to realize GMs just don't know. The list of HOF QBs is far far less than the list of first round busts.
Most on here were ok with Coleman. Some wanted another guy. What my guess is the vast majority of us wanted was another WR. Because at the end of the day these guys don't know. And two chances to be correct is far better than one chance.
No one is saying they are infallible. I too have a job where I have to be correct 100%, but the variables involved in my job are way less that picking an NFL player. Probably for your job as well.
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1 minute ago, RobbRiddick said:
What an amazing job. Wish I was smart enough to do something like that. I'm guessing you don't just pour the 'seed' on the embryo with a turkey baster and then go for a coffee?
It’s a bit more complex than that.
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1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:
Honest question? Do people really think this matters? Josh tossing the ball around a HS field for a couple hours one weekend this summer. I mean it can't hurt but seriously how much can it possibly matter.
You think in the KC game they said on the sideline remember that out pattern you threw me on the Lockport Lions field in June? Let's do that again!
Well, let’s see.
1. This is how we want out patterns run.
2. Let’s go over options when we run this particular set.3. Let’s talk about how we’re going to react when situation X, Y, or Z comes up.
And so on.And so on.
And so on.
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3 minutes ago, harmonkillebrew said:
hahaha. except NFL drafting is hardly a science. They've been screwing it up for so long, despite better data. See EJ, Mike Williams, Elam, Basham, Brady, Purdy, etc...
When you know you don't have access to the right data, you have to employ other strategies besides pure trust in your analysis.
Like your draft better. I wouldn't have gone McConkey (another slot) at 33 except that you were committed to adding an X in Rd 3.
You can say the same of every team.
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Just now, FireChans said:
Hilarious. I’ve been begging to draft a WR for 3 years. I’m on record this off-season debating hard against taking Coleman with @Alphadawg7 and @HappyDays predraft.
I actually have courage in my convictions, rather than saying our WR room is solved by Hamler (who cannot stay healthy at the NFL this far) and has 12 rec in 3 seasons combined and Shorter, an unproductive college WR who was a stashed fifth rounder last year.
Your analysis is post-hoc to a T. The moves we did were great because we did them. No one was arguing Shorter and Hamler solved our problems 4 days ago lol
So they drafted one this year. Be happy.
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Just now, FireChans said:
Hamler? The guy who caught 12 balls in the last 3 years?
Yeah, I think there’s a chance Beane could’ve found a guy to do better than that lmao
Because he was injured. Let’s see him healthy.
We get you. If they had taken 3 WRs you be on here complaining we did nothing to fortify other areas. Or if they had taken say Leggette you’d be screaming they should have taken Coleman. And so on.
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8 minutes ago, FireChans said:
Oh man, that must be why every other second round pick by every other GM was a bust. Or was it because COVID only happened in Erie County?
Only two explanations are incompetence or malfeasance.
We already have double dipped with Hamler and Shorter. What makes you think a 6th round WR is better than these guys?
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If that’s the guy they targeted then I presume they were talking to other teams to move up. So yes they would have gotten him.
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1 minute ago, Back2Buff said:
A coach can't fix his DNA. You think a coach gave Hill his abilities? You are both with these things.
I teach physiology and actually with training you can gain some conversion of slow twitch to fast twitch fibers and vice versa. But coaching will help him clear defenses when getting off the lOS, for example. How to shield guys when the ball is in the air. And so on.
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6 minutes ago, Back2Buff said:
My biggest issue with this pick is he doesn't fit the type of WR Allen will throw to.
Keon is never going to get separation, he just won't. He isn't twitchy enough to do so. He won't be able to learn it and it's not coming with more reps. It's never going to be there.
Will Allen throw to a guy that is considered covered? It's going to take throwing with anticipation because the ball needs to be high before the defender cant get his position or head around.
Allen has never shown the desire to do either of these things on a consistent basis. He would rather run around and wait for a guy to get opened, rather that reading the play and throwing it before guys get separation.
It's just a terrible fit. His ability to win is also going to come from the slot, so now we have ANOTHER slot guy.
Never say never. Let’s see what happens when this 20 year old kid gets NFL coaching.
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9 hours ago, jkeerie said:
Logic...I appreciate your feelings on this. In truth, I was disappointed in this year's draft, but mainly because of who we drafted with our last 3 picks and because we only drafted one receiver.
1. Keon Coleman was not my first choice of receiver, but in truth, outside of the 40 time, Keon Coleman is the closest to the top 4 receivers in this draft. Had he run a fast 40 at the combine, he would have been a top 10 pick. Coleman doesn't need separation. Any ball thrown near him, he will come down with . He won't be man-handled by defensive backs (think Jets and Chiefs). When I think of how many times Bills receivers did NOT come down with contested balls, I understand why the Bills focused on a player of Coleman's stature and ability. So...don't be so quick to dismiss Coleman.
2. Cole Bishop was the safety I expected the Bills to draft and we did. He will be solid, providing the abilities and leadership and smarts we're used to.
3. Carter...just as you said. He'll be a solid rotational DT and when I heard his presser, he reminded me so much of Lorenzo Alexander. He'll be a strong leader on this team.
4. Ray Davis. We knew we were going to draft a RB. Daniel Jermiah loved the pick, saying he was his 3rd best receiver in the draft. Great running the football and out of the backfield. I nice compliment to Cook.
5. Sedrick VP. We needed a center and we got a good one with a lot of experience in Sedrick. The competition he has faced has been among the best, so I expect him to work his way into a starting role sooner rather than later.
5. Ulofoshio, LB. I expected the Bills to draft a LB at some point given that we were on our 4th string by the playoffs. In truth, I don't know much about EU, but the ESPN and NFL pundits seemed to like the pick, saying he was one of the most impactful LBs in the draft. So...we'll see. I won't dismiss him just because I am unfamiliar.
5. Javon Solomon. We needed an Edge and got a good one according to the ESPN and NFL Network guys. I think he may work his way into the rotation. I'm optimistic.
The remaining picks are where my disappointment stems from. I would have preferred a second WR especially since the Bills spent so much time evaluating WRs.
6. Tylan Grable. I expected the Bills to draft an OT. It's an annual tradition with them. According to Beane, they liked his traits and sent Kromer down to work him out and evaluate him. So they see the potential. He's played both on the left and right side at tackle as well as right guard. Since VanDemark does not seem to play well on the right side, they likely want to groom another prospect as backup.
6. Daquan Hardy, CB. See above. It's an annual tradition. Being a Penn State alum and watching a lot of PSU football, I've been critical of their corners. In years past, if they weren't giving up big plays, they were committing PI. They were better in 2023. He'll be good on ST and if he can develop into a backup nickel, I'm good.
7. Travis Clayton. He has potential albeit he is a project. However, the upside is the roster exemption for international players. The Bills can keep 17 on the practice squad as opposed to just 16.
In this draft, the Bills filled a lot of needs. The veterans they brought in were only signed to one year deals for the most part, so if these rookies can develop there will be spots for them. So I'm not so down on this draft based on what I've watched throughout the college season. I'm hoping KJ Hamler can stay healthy and truly live up to the potential he displayed at Penn State and become that deep threat the Bills could use. He didn't show much at Denver due to health and QB play. We'll see what UDFA's are brought in as well, and though Beane did say there's no trade in the works for a veteran, he did not rule out bringing in veteran help at the WR position.
My two cents.
Let me just comment on your desire for drafting a second WR in the later rounds, because that seems to be a criticism many have made. I would argue we already had done that on the current roster. We have Shorter from last year who never got a real chance due to injury. We have Hamler who could be a 4th guy if he can get past injury. Hollins and Isabella. We have a number of guys already in the roster who fit the third round level pick.
The Bills have the luxury that we as fans don’t have in that they can watch a guy like Shorter in practice, the film and weight rooms, etc. I think that’s what Beane meant when he said they were OK with the WR room.
I’m reminded this time last year when Edmunds had left and there was panic in the Mafia. Beane said that they felt they were OK with what they had, and he was right. Bernard stepped in and had a great year. I suspect that the 4th WR is sitting on the roster right now. Not that I would argue with getting someone like a Sutton or OBJ once Tre’s cap stuff comes off the books. But I’ve grown to believe Beane when he says stuff, and he’s said not to expect a trade anytime soon.
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I've seen some folks talk about how we were should have doubled up on WR in the draft, got another guy say somewhere in rounds 3-7. But we have two guys on the roster right now that fit that description, Hamler and Shorter. Hamler of course has to get over his injury history, and Shorter never really got going last year. So we kind of already have done what some wanted done yesterday.
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1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:
For the record, I’m not upset about the WR room.
The vision Beane had for this offense in 2024 simplified:
Diggs
Coleman
Shakir
Samuel
Then add all our draft picks except the Duke DT and you’d have our team. Pretty dang good.
But this organization was thrown into mini turmoil bc of Stefon Diggs. Period. If your take is “Beane has neglected WR and this is what happens” you’re just wrong.
Diggs was supposed to give us 2024 and 2025.
He quit (as we know now) at the end of 2022 and throughout 2023.
I refuse to trash Beane over the WR room that was supposed to include Stefon in the plan until he tapped out and quit.
Quite frankly, I’m sick of the fan base rushing to defend Diggs over the GM that oversaw the construction of this perennial SB contenders roster.
It’s embarrassing.
I’ll be rooting for Coleman and Shakir harder than I’ve rooted for 2 Bills WRs. And if we need more ammo I trust Beane, whose cap is all screwed up this year bc of Stefon, will find more ammo.
Go Bills!None of us really know what went on. But I think it’s a fair assumption that Diggs doesn’t get traded unless Josh was on board.
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3 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:
Our draft is over, so here is my first look at 2024 roster. I included 9 rookies, I guess all of them have a good chance. I know a lot will change; this is just a projection for fun/discussion.
51 players already on the roster. I am pretty sure we add veteran WR through FA or trade, and I also think we will sign some cheap vet CB. I listed some other relevant players who did not make it.
What do you guys think? Rookies are in green.
Offense (25)
QB: Allen, Trubisky (2)
OT: Dawkins, Brown, Van Demark, Collins, Grable (5)
IOL: McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Van Pran, Anderson (5)
WR: Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, FA/trade, Hollins, Shorter (6)
TE: Kincaid, Knox, Morris, Gilliam (4)
RB: Cook, Davis, Johnson (3)
Not included – Doyle, Clapp, Clayton, Hamler, Isabella
Defense (25)
DE: Miller, Rousseau, Epenesa, Solomon, Jonathan (5)
DT: Oliver, Jones, Carter, Johnson (4)
LB: Milano, Bernard, Williams, Ulofoshio, Spector, Morrow (6)
CB: Douglas, Benford, Elam, Johnson, Hardy, FA (6)
S: Bishop, Edwards, Rapp, Lewis (4)
Not included – Toohill, Williams, Ankou, Hamlin, Ingram
ST: Bass, Martin, Ferguson (3)
One correction. Haack is punter and might benefit Bass as his holder
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Just now, strive_for_five_guy said:
As long as the Bills matriculate the ball down the field, the speed differential won’t matter 😃😃Bingo. I’m excited to see what all these guys do in camp.
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I don’t have access to a tiny fraction of the data Beane does. I run IVF labs. It would be like having folks here tell me I’m wrong about what embryo to transfer when they haven’t even had high school biology.
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Just now, mrags said:
Dude. I’ve dealt with you all day. Just stop. Go back to sucking on McBeanes Teet and talking smack to people that are realistic about some of these questionable decisions with this team.
As I just said. Fallback is personal insults.
Data on throws 40 yards or more?
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Thanks. Looks like for Josh and the league in general it’s less than once a game.