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oldmanfan

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    Speed: I do the math here

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, mrags said:

    Or see it with our own eyes 

     

    you said it yourself. 3 yards. And then said it didnt sound like it was that much. That’s almost 10 freaking feet. That’s 1.5 people you’re talking about. I’d say that’s a huge difference 

    Here is a more nuanced take.  For the 40 times to be directly relevant on the field both the WR and defender would have to be starting from the same starting point.  CBS don’t unless they play press.  You also would have to factor in any help from a safety over the top.  And so on.

     

    I suspect there are relatively few throws in the league in any given year where it is a straight fly pattern on a guy being covered one on one.

     

     

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    Speed: I do the math here

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, mrags said:

    Yeah I’m sure you did. That’s why I provided a picture for your eyes to actually see the difference. And not imagine things in your head. 
     

    fwiw, I bet I found that pic, condensed it so that I could post to this site, and replied to you. As well as pissed 14 other people off in 6 other threads in the time it took you to do all that math and post the original OP 

    God forbid we look at actual data

    4 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

    I’m not really arguing against your original point, just wanted to add that quickness, route running skill and acceleration are as important or more so as speed.

     

    The gauntlet speed point is questionable in my mind - the gauntlet is not a speed competition.  Players aren’t competing to see who can run it fastest.  It IS encouraging that he could ripen it fast and show good hands.

    I agree with your points

    Speed: I do the math here

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

    That’s true, but why do you suppose he didn’t run the 40 again at his pro day?  I think it’s safe to assume that he knew his 4.61 was about the best he can do.  Similarly, he did not do the 3-cone and 20 yard shuttle agility drills at all - very likely he knew these would not be his strengths.

     

    That doesn’t mean that he can’t succeed in the league, but it might well cap his ceiling.

    Someone indicated above he had the best gauntlet drill time and second best top speed.  Again that’s an N of 1.  But it suggests speed in other testing modalities.

    2 minutes ago, mrags said:

    I mean I think I’ve only missed 8 games Josh live at home in his career. Pretty sure I’ve seen him too. 

     

    I believe he underthrows some guys sometimes.  Maybe because he’s holding back a bit thinking he’s going to overthrow his WR because he doesn’t believe they have the speed to jist go get it. 

    How many total passes of over 40 yards were thrown by Josh last year?  Or in the league?  I can’t find that data.

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    Speed: I do the math here

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, mrags said:

    Here. This is much easier to show the difference of speed. Almost the exact times we’re talking about from a 4.6 to a 4.3. It’s actually a lot. 3yrds is almost 10ft. That’s a lot when your talking about separation on a CB. 
     

     

    IMG_6637-compressed.png

    I checked my math twice thanks.

    Speed: I do the math here

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, PayDaBill$ said:

    A lot of other factors come into play, running 40 yds in a straight line isn’t quite the same with gear on and running routes. It’s just another athleticism metric.


    from an nbcsprts.com article;

     

     

    “Timing of players at the Scouting Combine isn’t just done with stopwatches. It’s also done with chips worn by every player, that tracking their speed during every drill. And last year, that player tracking data showed off the talents of Puka Nacua, a relatively unknown receiver out of BYU who went from fifth-round pick of the Rams to the most productive rookie receiver in NFL history.

    Nacua wasn’t great in the traditional tests of athleticism that the NFL has relied on for decades, recording a 4.57-second 40-yard dash. But the player tracking data showed he was the fastest receiver at last year’s Combine in running through the gauntlet drill, in which a receiver runs across the field and catches seven passes in rapid succession. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Nacua reached the fastest speed of any wide receiver during last year’s gauntlet drill at 20.06 mph. That tipped teams off that Nacua plays faster than he runs, something that Nacua proved in his rookie year.

    This year, Florida State wide receiver Keon Coleman was similar to Nacua: Coleman ran a disappointing 40 time of 4.61 seconds, but he reached the fastest speed in the gauntlet drill, topping out at 20.36 mph — even faster than Nacua last year. Coleman also reached the second-fastest speed of any wide receiver in his group while running a go route, reaching 21.71 mph.

    The player tracking data is new, and there’s not a long history of being able to study how well it correlates to NFL success. But it may prove that players who show elite speed during the on-field drills that more closely approximate what they do on a football field prove to be better players than the ones who run the fastest in a straight line for 40 yards.

    In hindsight, teams wish they had paid more attention to Nacua’s player tracking data than to his stopwatch time. Coleman will hope teams remember that during this year’s draft.”

     

     

    Thanks.  This is the kind of data I’d be looking at if I was drafting.

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    Speed: I do the math here

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, KDIGGZ said:

    I see a lot of numbers trying to justify him being slow. It is what it is. He's slow. Hopefully he can make it up elsewhere (jump balls, catch radius, etc).Math What GIF by Riki Barker

    Another thing scientists (I am one) is you never base conclusions on a sample size of 1.  One 40 yard run at the combine is not enough data to conclude anything.

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    Speed: I do the math here

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    So there are a certain number of folks here who are wailing and gnashing teeth over Coleman because he’s not fast.  That we don’t place emphasis on speed.  So let’s do some math and compare a supposed fast time (4.2) with the supposed slow time of 4.6, which if memory serves correct is Coleman.
     

    The formula is simple:  40 yards/time gives you how many yards per second.

     

    For 4.2:  40/4.2= 9.5 yards/sec

    For 4.6:  40/4.6 = 8.7 yards/sec

     

    So if you have a guy running 40 yards downfield they’d gain about 3 yards. At 4.2 vs 4.6.  Seems like a significant difference although I haven’t run stats.  But I also don’t consider other variables like time to accelerate to maximum speed, effect of equipment on times, and such.  
     

    For me I’d be looking not just for speed, but how fast you get to top speed, how long you can maintain top speed, arm length (longer arms may negate the gap based purely on speed), quickness in getting in and out of breaks.  And likely more if I gave it more thought.  This is why Marcel St. Jacques wrote an article for espn.com indicating the 40 time isn’t very useful anymore.

     

    So this kid may not be a sprinter, but he’s quite the athlete (all state basketball), young still, will have height advantages over many corners.  I’m intrigued to see what he and other drafted guys bring to the table.

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    Coleman = Benjamin, Davis = Moss - Beane players

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by oldmanfan

    14 minutes ago, harmonkillebrew said:

    Didn't Beane also draft Devin Funchess?  

    There has long been an assumption that big bodied outside WRs can outmuscle and make contested catches, but that has been debunked. It's separation that produces results, either from speed, quickness, or good footwork/routes. Teams have been going more and more for smaller WRs with great separation skills. Look at who Andy Reid added this offseason - Worthy and Hollywood Brown. People are pretty high on Coleman as a contested catch specialist with great hands, but can he separate consistently? We know Gabe couldn't. 

     

    I don't know why Beane traded Moss for a guy they never used. He was still on his rookie K. I guess he wants a do-over. 

     

    I'm not dogging any of these guys as players. I don't know enough about them as a fan. I'm just pointing out what seems to be a trend from Beane that seems old school, out of touch with the league, and counter to what the say themselves.  They seem to like/want a plodding, ball-control offense.

    I’m tired of reading about 40 yard dash stuff.  Jerry Rice would have dropped based on that.  Coleman is fluid from what I’m reading and can win contested catches.  Let the kid play.

    Coleman = Benjamin, Davis = Moss - Beane players

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by oldmanfan

    6 minutes ago, harmonkillebrew said:

    All talk. 

    You see the Chiefs and Dolphins, even Ravens adding speed with some measurable success.  Then we go out and get slower.

    Coleman and Davis were both considerably slower than other guys available. Doesn't mean they will fail, but it does track to a Beane tendency that seems to be out of step with the league.

    As the combine has grown into one of the NFL's most marketed offseason events over the past two decades, the 40-yard dash has provided a stage to showcase athletic evolution, with each crop of the league's newcomers coming in bigger and faster than ever.

    All of this is remarkable, considering the drill has all but lost its utility to front office personnel and data analysts around the league in the modern era.

    The 40 is no longer the most effective way to determine a player's speed. The value it once had to teams has diminished in its 80-year existence, as clubs turn toward other means -- such as GPS tracking and analytical data -- to fully understand how fast a player can move in football specific situations.
     

    The above from an article by Marcel Louis-Jacques on espn.com.  Can we please stop with the speed stuff?  Beane and McD wanted explosive and one of Coleman’s tests is very favorable there if you want to rely on those tests.  Bishop apparently has that trait when playing in the box.  The DT from round 3 apparently has that trait.  The Edge kid from Troy.

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    [Vague Title]

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

    This has been a much tougher draft compared to the last few (which is well beyond mosts fans attention spans...) because we have so many more holes to fill this season. When you look at how many players have left, starters and depth, it really brings to light how daunting this offseason is. In the last few offseasons, Beane had filled all the holes, to some degree, before the start of the draft. There was no way to do that this time around. Bills came due, and players aged out this year. There are no luxury picks, no flyers, and no BPAs at unneeded positions for this draft, and by the end of the day, all holes will not be filled.

     

    That will all make this draft a much less satisfying experience for a lot of fans. And it probably also means that Beane/McDermott have to prioritize certain traits in a different order than in previous drafts. Leadership, and durability are probably getting more consideration this time around. Concepts like "raw, but has a lot of potential" are probably less attractive this time around. It is what it is. All I can say is, GO BILLS!

    I define holes as lacking guys as starters.  We don’t have holes from that perspective.  Every team is always looking to add or improve depth.

    [Vague Title]

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

     

    Oh come on. Stefon Diggs is a better player than Curtis Samuel. By any scale. 

    Oh come on.  Diggs is getting older and fell off last year.  He will at best be the Texans #2 this year (good luck with that CJ).  If you don’t mind. , I’d like to see what happens before making sweeping pronouncements.

    • Disagree 2

    [Vague Title]

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

     

    Yep. That is the way to see this pick. We have upgraded on Gabe Davis as WR2. But if you see Curtis Samuel therefore as the Diggs replacement we have significantly downgraded at that spot.

    First, I appreciate the time and the work you put in.  But you have no way to know if Samuel is a downgrade.  Diggs performance fell off the second half of last year, roughly corresponding to the switch in OC.  Brady’s offense appears to be more focused on spreading the ball around.  

    Trying to be reasonable here

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    2 hours ago, mrags said:

    How does everyone feel now? Not that anyone cares. But what a terrible pick. Could have traded down more and still got him. Would have rather taken the best punter than this joke. 
     

    this front office sucks. 

    Solid picks at WE and S.  Why don’t you just run along now?

    What if all this isnt about this year but next year?

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    6 hours ago, mjt328 said:

     

    Pretend for a moment you aren't a Bills fan, and you are objectively looking at this roster from the outside.

     

    The team has quite obviously taken a step backwards at several key positions (Wide Receiver, Safety and Edge Rusher).  Less talented players will now be expected to step into starting spots and play more snaps.  At other positions, there is also less depth when the inevitable injuries happen (Offensive Line, Defensive Tackle).  Not to mention the significant loss of leadership, with five longtime veterans walking out the door (Stefon Diggs, Mitch Morse, Tre White, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde).  The biggest remaining star on defense (Matt Milano) is returning from a major leg injury.

     

    Yes, there are still 4 months left until the start of the regular season.  But I'm struggling to see the pathway where we can fill all these spots with guys who can make an impact in 2024.  The veteran FA market has pretty much dried up, and we won't have cap space until June 1.  The rookies who could have made an immediate Year 1 impact are already gone.  

     

    This team wasn't good enough in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023.  Can anyone honestly say this roster looks BETTER in 2024?

    I’ll take these in order:

     

    WR:  They traded a guy on the north side of 30 who did not play that well the last half of last season.  That corresponded to the new OC taking over.  So we lost Diggs but until the draft is over we don’t know if we downgraded.

     

    S:  lost two older guys that had lost a step and replaced with younger guys in Rapp and Edwards

     

    O line:  lost Morse, good run block but was having trouble with rushing DTs.  Added depth with Collins.  No problem here.

     

    Edge:  lost one guy in Floyd who slowed down a lot the last half of the year

     

    Biggest star on defense:  Milano we will see, but ignoring guys like Oliver and Bernard and Douglas is ridiculous

     

    So are we better?  Impossible to know until the draft is done, camp is done, and games are played.

    54 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

    We will see what he does in the next 12 hours.  

    There still was no reason to trade Diggs at this time and make your team worse.  They could just have easily kept Diggs and still traded down and still drafted a WR. 

    Now they need to add at least two WRs to even have a roster of 5 NFL caliber WRs.    There are still several name UFA out there Beane can add after June 1st.  They may already have a deal in place for one of them.  

     

    I assumed then and do now that Josh was consulted about Diggs and he wanted him gone, that he was tired of the nonsense.

    Brand Beane Press Conf 4/18

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by oldmanfan

    I think he’s had conversations about moving into the top 10 to get a guy like Harrison, but didn’t like what he heard.  I still think he’ll move up somewhere in round 1 to get a guy he really likes,  whether it’s a WR or not we’ll see.  To me a first round pick should go to someone you think has All-Pro potential, and if that’s at a position other than WR so be it.

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