BillsFan4

Bills are killing it in free agency so far! They've had 2 players in for a visit, both of whom went on to visit multiple other teams and both still picked us! I am not used to this. Neither factor into the comp pick formula either.

There are definitely players in the NFL that are dumb. But it seems like quite an assumption to assume "most are just slightly smarter than a rock"... I'd be interested in reading the sources you got these cold hard facts from if you wouldn't mind sharing the links. An NFL playbook is not exactly kindergarten stuff. You have to memorize a complex playbook about as thick as a dictionary. There is a ridiculous amount of stuff that goes into basically every play call, too. You have to know what you're doing, as well as multiple other players on the field - on offense and defense. Then you have to make split second decisions based on what type of coverage you see pre and post snap. Something as small as which way a safety or linebacker turns/looks can change your responsibilities on a given play. You have to know multiple concepts for each and every play, and then be able to execute them properly base on those split second decisions. Depending on what position you play, you have to not only know your own assignment but everyone else's assignment too. On every single installed play. Of which there are easily at least 50-80+, or even 100+ depending on the coach, and that's per week. That's not even mentioning the separate plays installed for 3rd downs and for the red zone. You are having to do all do all of this against other professionals who are not only trying to stop/beat you, but also trick you as well. I would venture to guess that you have to be a bit smarter than you are giving them credit for in order to learn everything that goes into preparing for a game. Check out this video. He talks about how Jon Gruden used to install 200-250 plays A WEEK! 150+ passing plays, 20-30 3rd down plays, 15-20 red zone plays... every week. Here's a good story on how hard it is to master an NFL playbook (according to a neuroscientist - https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2014/08/04/how-difficult-it-memorize-nfl-playbook-neurologist-explains Just out of curiosity I decided to briefly look into average intelligence of NFL players. Heres a huge list of NFL players wonderlic scores. A score of 20 is considered average intelligence. There sure are a whole lot of NFL players who scored higher than that. In fact, most of these test scores are above average - http://wonderlictestsample.com/nfl-wonderlic-scores/ Heres the average wonderlic scores by position - http://www.assessmentpsychology.com/nfl.htm Seems like most fall somewhere between slightly above average to slightly below average.

That's fair. Rudolph is definitely not my first choice, but I can't say that I'd be pissed f we drafted him. He does have some intriguing aspects. I am willing to give the Bills brass the benefit of the doubt on whatever QB move they make, though.

I'd be totally good with them giving up a 2nd for Foles and still drafting a rookie high in the draft. The only thing id worry about in that scenario is that it may make it harder to re-sign Foles (if he had a good season and the Bills wanted him back). There's always the franchise tag in that scenario though. But I wouldn't really want to give up a 2nd for Foles and have the Bills think they could punt on drafting a QB because of it.

Me too. I want the Bills to go up and get Rosen, or if not him Darnold/Mayfield. If it came down to Foles for a 2nd or Rudolph in the 2nd, I honestly don't know which I'd pick. But I think I'd lean towards Rudolph. Just comparing college stats (since we can't compare NFL stats...), Rudolph's seem quite superior... https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/mason-rudolph-1.html https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/nick-foles-1.html There is more of that unknown factor with Rudolph obviously. I feel like at 29 Foles probably is what he is at this point. Rudolph has the potential to be better, or worse. If Beane vets him and feels he has the potential to be better, then I'd rather take the gamble on Rudolph reaching that higher ceiling. Plus weve played around round with other teams backups long enough. Im of the thinking that it's long past time to draft and develop our own.

No. That would mean that the Bills would not be using a 1st on a QB in the draft, ans I would much rather take a shot on a QB in the draft than give up a 1st for Foles. To be perfectly honest, I'm not even that crazy about the idea of giving up a 2nd for him. Again, my worry is if they gave up a 2nd for Foles it might mean that there is less of a chance that they go QB in the 1st. Maybe one would have nothing to do with the other though, I don't know. I guess Im not convinced that Foles will be a successful QB on another team. And As I've said in other threads, I don't know that he is really much more than a bridge QB anyway. I am more ore than ok with the Bills acquiring him, but a 2nd is the absolute most I would pay and im not even crazy about that.

He is definitely Not the QB I want the Bills to draft, but I will give any QB they take a fair chance to prove he can be the answer.

Do you really think that trading Dareus to Jacksonville was the reason they beat us in the wildcard game? Even with Dareus, do you think the offense scoring 3 points would have won the game? Also, the rushing statistics were pretty similar for both teams. Jax ran for 150yds, Bills ran for 130. Both teams yards per rush were almost identical (4.1 vs 4.6) Neither team scored a rushing TD. McCoy rushed for more yards than Fournette did (75 to 57). I just don't see where the Dareus trade was in any way the difference in that game.

That is not allowed under the salary cap rules. I'm not 100% sure of the exact numbers but IIRC, I believe the salary cap hit from year to year can differ no more than 50%. Thata why the 49ers were only able to make Garoppolo's cap hit so big in 2018. John Lynch said he would have made the cap hit even bigger in 2018 (since the 49ers had like $110M in cap space) if it were allowed.

I'd be perfectly happy replacing Taylor with Foles if the cost were right. But not for a 1st +. As as far as Daboll building a system around what our guys do well, I have very high hopes that is what he will do. It appears that was something Beane and McDermott were specifically looking for in a new OC, and it's something Daboll has said will be a focus. But looking at Daboll's track record (as well as the way McDermott coached last season) makes me think we will still be a run centered team. It's hard to know for sure though because he's had crap for QBs pretty much wherever he's been. He does have a pretty varied run scheme - kind of reminds me of Greg Roman in that regard. He has consistently improved the run game of whatever team he's been an OC for, and it seems to be something he's focused on in the past. Where as his passing offenses have been near the bottom of the NFL (again likely due mainly to his QBs). That could all change if he gets a good passing QB though. Mainly for me it just boils down to me not thinking Foles is worth the asking price. Id much rather use a 1st + more on a rookie QB with a much higher ceiling in th draft. It's a gamble but if it pays off we are set. I want to take a shot on a QB with elite potential. Id be happy with Foles as a bridge QB though if we can get him for a mid round pick, but I'm guessing some team that misses out in free agency could panic and pay more for him. I don't really want that to be us.

Absolutely ZERO INETREST in Nick Foles if Philly wants a 1st, let alone a 1st + 4th + something else. Hes is a bridge QB who needs the right talent/system/playcalling and even then he's not great. He had an amazing Super Bowl game, a good playoff game (or two) and a good season waynback in 2013. You don't pay a 1st + for that. Also - both times he had success at QB, it was in very innovative offense's. Chip Kelly's 1st year, and Doug Pederson's brilliant and creative play calling last year. Do we have that type of offense and playcalling here? Or are we going to be a comservativr run first team again this year? My guess is the latter.

He was in all the QB meetings last year, too. He even dined with a few of them (as he also did the draft before that, too). Ans they took QBs in the 4th and 5th rounds those drafts. So I don't know that it can be definitively said that they are all in on drafting a QB high this year. I think it'll all depend on how the draft plays out, just like last year. Has Trubisky fallen, we probably would have drafted him. It may be the same deal this year, or they may use some of that ammo to trade up (which is my hope/wish and I do agree that there seems to be a chance it could actually happen this year). I think what Pegula meeting with these QB draft prospects tells me personally, is that he wants to be involved in the drafting process of finding the Bills franchise QB, and possibly that he wants to make sure he approves of the way they'd represent his franchise.

I have no issue with this. He did it last year too. I actually like that he's always trying to learn. That's exactly what I'd do if I were an NFL owner. Id much rather have him constantly trying to learn than thinking he already knows everything like some other NFL owners. I like that he has studied every QB draft class since he's taken over the Bills (and I know that's mainly because we need a franchise QB). As these QB's get NFL experience, we will see which are good/great and which are busts. Pegula will have some inside knowledge on each QB - ideas of what their personalities and traits (etc) are and if there are any commonalities among the successful ones (and the busts).

I totally agree that it is obvious that the Bills will be drafting a QB, and are in search of their franchise guy. But... I don't think that automatically means that they acquired all this draft capital to trade up for a QB. They may have. They may also use it to build the team up. I am convicted need that they will draft a QB. But whether they use multiple picks to trade up, or use a single pick, I have no idea. They have made numerous QB comments. But they have also talked about building through the draft many times too, and how they want to build a complete team. I am all for trading up for a QB. I am just not as convinced as you that is what Beane will do. I could see it going either way.

I agree with everything you are saying. But on the bolded part - did McDermott ever actually say this or is this just an assumption on your part? i can't remember him ever actually saying that's specifically why he traded down.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/02/22/free-agent-tampering-period-agents-players-mmqb I believe these types of talks are always going on.

http://buffalonews.com/2018/03/02/inside-the-sabres-it-comes-down-to-a-matter-of-respect/ This is actually a really good article/point by John Vogl. Id quote the article, but it's pretty short and worth reading the whole thing. I do think he has a very good point, and I can see where what he's saying could be a very real issue with this team.

My guess is that It would be for Josh Rosen. Really hoping Cousins lands in Denver now! I am thinking more and more that we end up with one of the 2nd tier QBs like Allen, Rudolph, Jackson. Or maybe even another (perceived) step down like White, Falk etc. I think there migh just be too much competition for a QB from teams way higher up in the draft order like Denver, NYJ, maybe Arizona. Trying to temper my expectations. I was allowing myself to get lost in the daydream of trading up for Rosen/Darnold...

They are actually more like $16- $19M over (depending on if you look at spotrac or overthecap) right now if you include Robert Quinn's cap hit. Thats more than double the amount (give or take) that the Eagles are over the cap by (which is the only other team currently over the cap (not counting KC)), and they just came off a Super Bowl win. Miami is coming off a 6 win season...

I thought it was kinda funny that after they couldn't deal him in the Peters trade, the very first name they thought of to call was Mike Tannenbaum in Miami... lol.

Depends on the GM I guess. I dont see Beane overpaying for anyone, including his own free agents. He seems like he has set prices on everyone that he won't exceed. Now if we were talking about Doug Whaley or Buddy Nix, then maybe it'd be different. But this isn't a Mario Williams situation... lol. All I meant with my original comment is that I wouldn't break the bank for Wake at his age.

Not every black kid that gets in trouble is due to a "ghetto thug life" upbringing. Humphrey never grew up in the "ghetto". He grew up in the suburbs, his parents were middle (to middle upper) class. His father was an ex NFL football player as well as a minister. Held a good full time job. His mother was an athlete too. Both attended college. Marlon was a smart student, did well in school. He was a junior Olympic medalist (multiple times). He went to Hoover High School, which is a highly ranked public school (#500 something out of 17,000+ schools) with student test scores well above average. He has like 4 siblings that (I believe) all attended college too. Also, he's never been in legal trouble before this from everything I could find. If you read the story posted in this thread, I don't see how you can even draw any conclusions about this having anything to do with "ghetto thug life". He was hanging out with a couple chicks, got drunk, asked to borrow a phone charger and got mad when asked to return it (because he claims he forgot in his drunken state that it wasn't his). Something like that could happen to someone regardless of where they grew up or what color their skin is. And they surely don't have to have lived a "ghetto thug life" which you have no clue if this guy ever lived that lifestyle anyway. In fact, I'm sure most of us could tell some type of drinking story - maybe not involving the police - but a drinking story where we forgot who something belonged to or got angry for a stupid reason, or had a drunk friend/person get angry. Maybe even got into a dumb fight. It doesn't automatically mean you were raised a certain way or are reverting to a certain lifestyle. Sounds like he just made a stupid mistake is all. I'm not sticking up for his actions. I'm just pointing out that it has nothing to do with what you said.

Yeah he was right on. And Rosen is the QB I want, too! Bad. If the price/term were right, sure. I think his personality definitely fits with what McDermott likes. And he works his ass off. I remember reading stories about how he would lead post practice exercise sessions in Miami and stuff like that. I actually think he'd be a good culture fit, and a good fit on the field. But he is 36 (IIRC) so we can't break the bank for him or anything. I'd definitely be interested if he were released though. But he's the type that I could see taking a pay cut to stay in Miami. Wouldn't be surprised if that's what happened.

Smart kid. The more I see of Rosen, the more I want the Bills to go up and get him. I think he has a real shot at being a special QB. I really want the Bills to draft this kid! (somehow) I think all those so called personality issues are way overblown by some fans.

Good call man.