HappyDays
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My stomach was twisting thinking it could be Kizer too.
Oh Cleveland...just gonna keep Clevelanding...
I just remembered they took Peppers in the 1st too. If the Bills took Peppers in the 1st and Kizer in the 2nd everyone on this board would lose its mind, myself included. And they took the guy that knocked out a woman... They will never stop collecting picks and wasting them.
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@4TomMartin: McDermott asked if he had inside knowledge to know to trade up ahead of former team, Carolina, to get an OT.
His response: Well said."
Well there you have it. Crazy.
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Wow I was wrong wrong wrong, Whaley really will be fired after the draft. Sounds like we really were using Carolina's deaft boaed too. Incredible.
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Our Coach goes on and on about Special Teams, so this is the 2017 version of Tony Steward.
Yay.
It is, in the sense that people are whining about our last 6th round pick like it matters.
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My stomach was twisting thinking it could be Kizer too.
Oh Cleveland...just gonna keep Clevelanding...
You know what if this is how McDermott drafts players i won't be mad if Whaley really is fired next week. These are the types of QBs we should be going for.
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Whaley is absolute garbage, he wouldn't know a good QB if it hit him in the face.
Peterman will be lucky to be even a ok backup and we also have bum cardale, good job moron.
I find it hilarious that like 5 separate people in this thread called you out as bad QB evaluator. Like you're so bad at it that multiple people recognize your username. Maybe find a new hobby.
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I'd rather my QB have to come in and do arm workouts, than have to come in and get all his mechanics reworked. Good pick by the Bills and Whaley never would have made it IMO. I was terrified we would take Kizer.
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Days -
This draft went about as well as I could have hoped. They did exactly what I wanted them to do: Keep Taylor to see what he does in the new offense and with a couple seasons under his belt. Bring in a seasoned backup. Draft a QB in the late rounds who might be a longshot but who has a chance of working out. Put yourself in position to go after a top-rated QB next year if Taylor doesn't work out and Peterman doesn't look like he has it.
This is perfect QB management given the position the Bills were in. Perfect.
Plus a quality DB and a guy who looks like he could be a seriously good receiver, plus an offensive lineman who has a good chance of helping.
Nicely done.
I love the draft. I was worried we would lose out on a QB with those trade ups and I truly can't believe Peterman was still there. I've been busy all weekend so I haven't had much time to pay attention to any picks but the Bills. I assumed Peterman had been drafted a couple rounds ago. So when I got the notification that we had taken Peterman I jumped out of my chair!! Forget arm strength, this guy has everything else you need in a franchise QB. Another high character guy too. I think I was wrong, McDermott really is running things.
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I think if anyone has a chance to be Tom Brady in this draft it's Peterman. Not there's a huge chance of that happening but he would be the one out of them all.
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Amazing pick!!! I am extremely happy and thought he would be gone by the beginning of the 3rd. We needed a backup QB in the worst way.
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Didn't McDermott start off as a scout or something that Department?
Apparently which I didn't know. Makes me feel slightly better but I don't know how successful he is. Ah well at the end of the day I want us to come away with 3 starters from this draft including 1 premium starter. If that's what ends up happening I'll be happy. I just don't think trading up in the 2nd is the best way to make that happen. And I really wanted a QB with one of those mid-round picks.
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I generally agree with the principle you espouse, but there's another principle that's critical, too. That's "stay true to your board."
I haven't heard anyone say it this year, but they said it last year with Ragland. They saw this talent they had ranked up in the first round and he was still sitting there early in the second. They thought he was a huge bargain based on their board. They also thought they weren't the only ones who knew that, so they traded up. I'm guessing the same thing happened twice yesterday.
They really wanted receiver and oline help and they saw guys who looked like bargains on their board.
They stayed true to the board.
Fifth round picks are useful, but they usually don't give you guys much better than the undrafted free agents who make your team. And they rarely start in the first, or even the second season.
Bills got three guys who all have a good chance of starting. It's always a good draft when you do that.
Still, I agree. It's a crapshoot, and more picks is usually better. But I'm happy this morning.
I agree staying true to the board is the best strategy but trading up isn't staying true to the board. I've always said a smart GM should recognize he really isn't that smart. Surefire picks flame out all the time, especially when it's just one GM who thinks it's a surefire pick. The more picks, the better chances of finding a contributing player. Like Wayne said we lost a pick and converted our 3rd into a 5th. That was the 3rd we got for trading down. So we traded down 17 spots for a 1st rounder next year and an O-lineman that no one is sure if he'll be a tackle or guard. I don't think that's very good value at all. And now Dawkins has to be better than just a 50% starter, he has to be pretty darn good. Ragland is a great example because his injury was unpredictable and made the Bills look foolish when they could have had Dak with the pick they traded away for him. I thought they had learned from that mistake.
You're skeptical about the success rate of a 3rd round OL....So the Bills trade back up to the 2nd round and only sacrifice some mid round picks to get a better prospect....but if he tears his ACL...
My bad I meant to say 2nd round, specially the late 2nd round. If the players work out it won't matter, that's the truth of it. But without hindsight I'd rather we take more players instead of thinking we know how successful a player will be:
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I have zero problem giving away 5ths to move into 2nd, but they need to be smart about who they are drafting there.
You should read this article: http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round
It's an interesting article but I'm not so sure on its criteria. It doesn't distinguish between great starters and below average starters, it just includes a player as a success if "the player started at least half of their career." So if Dawkins starts for 50% of his career and never really plays that well that would be a success story according to this article.
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The way I see it, the Bills have just as many picks in this year"s draft right now as they did coming in
Not entirely true, we lost the 3rd rounder that we had from the KC trade. That's an entire mid-round player gone. Jones and Dawkins can't just become decent starters for the trades to be worth it because you can find decent starters at our original spots in the 2nd and 3rd round. We were just so sure about Jones and Dawkins that we gave up the chance to take an additional mid-round player that could have filled yet another hole. I for one think QB still needs to be addressed but I don't know how likely that is now.
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....merge them all into a "NEGATIVE NELLIES UNITE" thread for group therapy and commiseration.....gonna be a long weekend......................
I'm not a negative nelly, I just wish the Bills were smarter with their picks. The less you have the less room there is for error. If McDermott really is running this draft that is especially concerning to me. He's a coach, not a scout. He has no background in college talent evaluation. So why should we believe he knows better than everyone else in the room, that this player is worth 2 picks while other teams haven't spent 1 pick on him yet? I like the players picked, no crazy reaches and they fill needs, but the truth is no one knows how they will fare in the NFL.
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Bortles will be fine.
You're the 2nd person I've seen on here who hates Tyrod but thinks Bortles will rebound. It's gotta be about the weirdest set of opinions you could have.
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I'm right there with you Wayne. The draft is a crapshoot but every year the Bills waltz in like they know better than everyone else. What is the success rate of OL taken in the 3rd round, 33%? I can't imagine it's much higher. But I'm sure the Bills would tell you they are 75% sure in Dawkins. No matter how sure they think they are they don't really know. Dawkins could tear his ACL in training camp and there goes that idea. We needed to use all our picks this year IMO. I love the trade down but not as much because we lost the 3rd rounder anyways, to take a WR who had a great senior bowl but whose college production was possibly inflated by the system he played in. I mean I don't know maybe he turns into a great player but without the benefit of hindsight yet the moves look poor to me.
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This is a dumb thread but I do agree it was very foolish for the Bills to trade up. After looking through scouting reports on the 3 we took, they all have at least one major flaw or question. And no matter how sure the Bills (McDermott? Whaley? Pegula?) are about the players we took, plenty of NFL minds have been wrong about more surefire prospects than these guys. So now we have less picks and essentially need the 3 guys we took to all work out. There's no room to make a bad pick when you trade the later rounds away. It is what it is but these players have higher standards now. The smartest teams in the NFL almost never trade up.
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I don't feel too good about a first year NFL head coach trading up and making need picks before we have any sense of his abilities as a scout. Trading up is the mark of someone who thinks he's smarter than everyone else in the room, which is a poor mindset at the draft. Maybe Tre White changes our culture, or maybe he's already hit his ceiling after 4 years in college. Maybe Zay Jones becomes a great #2 for us, or maybe his college production was inflated by the system. Maybe Dawkins becomes our franchise RT, or maybe some scouts were right that he could only be a G in the NFL.
The more picks you make in the draft the better your chances of finding good players. It makes no sense to me you would throw away picks because you're just so sure about these guys. What if we have another Ragland scenario? That's the kind of thing you can't predict. It's supposedly a deep draft and we have a lo of holes so I would have preferred we let the board come to us.
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Yes, looking at NFL.com's player grades, there were a lot of receivers with about the same grade when Day 2 started with only a few each of LBs and safeties with similar grades. Being they were so enamored with Zay Jones, I hope he turns into a star and not Robert Woods 2.0.
Juju Smith-Shuster, ArDarius Stewart and Cooper Kupp had similar grades to Zay and they went 62nd, 79th and 69th, respectively.
I'll let you in on a little secret... NFL.com's grades mean nothing.
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Here we go again trading up all over the place. It's absolutely nuts that he does the same thing year after year like he just doesn't learn.
Oh well I hope the players are worth it but sheesh. It's a deep draft and we're missing out on more players. No way McDermott is running this.
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Meh not really happy about the trade up but it is what it is. Hope he ends up worth it, I thought Whaley had learned by now there is no guarantee of anything and trading up loses out on players like Dak Prescott.
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Man Leroi right again
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Your math is off. You said QB's taken top ten have a 8/24 chance for success. That is 1 out of 3. So you said the other side is 6/7, which is 85%. No. The other side of 33% is 66%. Then you use wrong percentage as your opening header.
Maybe change that to using a top ten pick on a QB in the top ten has a 33% chance of very high success. I like those odds. Give me QB at ten and if that isn't a franchise guy I take another shot the next year with a top ten.
Thanks for providing a great argument for using a high top ten pick on the QB position.
Now remove anyone taken at 1 or 2
GM Doug Whaley has been fired
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Again:
@4TomMartin: McDermott asked if he had inside knowledge to know to trade up ahead of former team, Carolina, to get an OT.
His response: Well said."
Sounds to me like the rumor about the Carolina asst GM is true. Any history on this guy? Does Carolina draft well?