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HappyDays

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Posts posted by HappyDays

    Josh Allen: Film Review From a Cynical Man

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Ronin said:

     

    Thanks for the great and rational back-n-forth!!!  

     

    I always lay out my thinking and "would have's" clearly here.  Everyone knows, unmistakably, that I don't think that Oliver is going to meet expectations and that I think that Singletary has little more potential than other as a role-playing receiving back.  If we're lucky we'll at a "Darren Sproles."  But if that comes to pass I'll have everyone telling me that "oh sure, you knew" kinda thing when I've said it all along.  It's somewhat comical.  

     

    As to their  strategy, all we can do is wait as you say so we'll see.  I do think that we'll get a very clear picture this season however, more than good enough to predict the future as such.  And frankly, circumstances aside, three seasons is a typical evaluation period for newbie GMs and coaches.  Why should it be any different here.  We all know that Beane &  McD's futures hang on Allen tho.  

     

    As to Jones, yes, most people were OK with Jones in the 2nd.  That's my point.  I provided all the info for people to see why it wasn't a good pick, just like I did with Spiller, Watkins, and a big number of other players  over the years, and it was scoffed at and ignored.  No worries, didn't bother me, just sayin'.  You get from what you analyze from what you put in.  I typically put in a few dozen hours of detailed analysis  on our key (1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks), more than professsional draft analysts do.  I mean who can spend that kind of time on a few hundred players, it would take years.  

     

    I'll also digress on Hughes, but to start, he predates McBeane, so he doesn't factor in to the "strategy," whatever it is other than the fact that he's here.  

     

    I don't know how you're measuring 1st or 2nd in the league last season, but he's averaged 5.5 sacks/season over his last five seasons, so not sure that's at the top.  He's also averaged 10 TFLs over the past four seasons, same there.  Last season he ranked in a 10-way tie for TFLs and he ranked in an 11-way tie for 38th in the league in sacks.  I'm not sure that qualifies as #1 or 2.  PFF has him rated as "Good", which is one spot above "above-average" and has only "high-quality" and "elite" above him.  So yeah, he's good, but A, he's not McBeane's acquisition, and he's not great.  22 players like him at his level and we're set tho, so there's that.  

     

    And LOL, nothing personal, but you say Murphy will finally be healthy, he's had injury issues throughout his career.  So that may be temporary, hence many of my comments, eh.  :)   To the greater point, the risk that they assumed played out as such.  

     

    As to addressing the OL and WRs next year, I'm struggling to understand why in three seasons they've drafted a mere one WR, one that hasn't anted up to his draft status, in the first 5 rounds, almost the same for OL-men given a talent-bereft OL. n

     

    Next year's gonna be too late.  They should have had the OL around Allen now, he needs it now.  I've harped on that over the past few months.  

     

    Allen's issues are going to require "extra time" in the pocket, figure an extra second beyond what the best OLs provide.  He has to work on those fundamentals, which on game days in the NFL really isn't the time to do that, but that's what he's going to have to do.  I'm not sure that the team has set him up to succeed to whatever extent he will succeed.  That's my biggest issue with their approach.  

     

    Great, they signed the riskiest QB in last year's draft.  Water under the dam.  But now do everything that you can  to try to help him succeed.  

     

    But what do they do?  Defense in round 1.  Great, Ford in round 2.  But a small-school RB that simply doens't have the speed to compete in the NFL in round 3, and also in round 3 another injury-prone player, a TE, that has never caught a TD before.  Sure, they say "IF" he hadn't been injured he'd have been much better in college.  No doubt to some extent, but then why couldn't he score a single TD in 18 games and on 39 receptions when he did play.  Something's not lining up there, eh.  Either way, yet another risky move that I don't think was in Allen's best interests.  They clearly could have done better.  Oliver, no matter what he does, won't help Allen any.  

     

    I simply don't see them protecting their QB investment anywhere close to the extent that they should be.  Allen's going to need extra help.  They didn't do that.  Waiting until next year to address those things will be too late.  Even if they hit, it's going to take a half-season, as it always does, and at least the team seems to understand that by their comments on the development of the OL, to gel and develop the necessary chemistry on the OL.  That's why I'm not as big on the Morse acquisition as others are.  I like Morse, think he's good, but the chemistry diminishes if he's out, which will likely be the case.  The fact that he's already hurt and there hasn't even been anything even resembling contact should be highly concerning.  

     

     

     

     

     

    So did the TaskersGhost account get banned, or did you just go back to an old account name for fun? How many accounts do you have here?

    John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    On 6/16/2019 at 8:47 AM, SoTier said:

    McDermott and Beane just might not walk on water

    On 6/16/2019 at 8:47 AM, SoTier said:

    McDermott/Beane cheerleaders

    2 hours ago, SoTier said:

    you can worship McDermott for it if you want.

     

    2 hours ago, SoTier said:

    I'm not anointing McDermott anything special

     

    2 hours ago, SoTier said:

    not every Bills thinks McDermott and Beane are the next Levy and Polian.

     

    There has to be a name for this particular complex, where you constantly exaggerate what other people are saying to make yourself look superior.

    • Like (+1) 1

    John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    1 hour ago, SoTier said:

    Round 4.  Matt Milano has been a decent starter on a modest defense.  He's undersized, so he might or might not be a starter on most other NFL defenses.  It would depend largely upon defensive scheme and talent level

     

    If you want to know why people have trouble taking you seriously, it's because you stretch to make negative points like this.

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    John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted · Edited by HappyDays

    1 hour ago, K-9 said:

    But I’m utterly shocked, SHOCKED I tell you, to learn that if they aren’t a Super Bowl contender in 2020 that you’d be disappointed. Seems so out of character for you. 

     

    Well I don't think it's unreasonable. 2020 is year 4 of the new regime and year 3 of their hand picked franchise QB. If they aren't contending for a Super Bowl by that point what are we waiting for?

    • Like (+1) 2

    Robert Foster foot injury

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

    Sammy is soft, foot injury or not. It’s not a question, it’s an unremarkable career. 

     

    26 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

    Haha, there is it!!! Question Foster and Kroft about their toughness with foot injuries!

     

    See, if you had taken 2 seconds to read his post, you wouldn't have come out looking like a fool.

    Robert Foster foot injury

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

    Foot injuries are terrible for receivers.  Maybe we can question his toughness like some did with Sammy and force him to come back before he’s ready. 

     

    Are you able to make just one post that isn't a snide comment about other Bills fans?

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    John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    1 hour ago, SoTier said:

    John Overdorf continues to manage the Bills contracts and cap situation so that the Bills continue to be unable to "afford" to re-sign most of the top young veterans they develop.   If Josh Allen actually develops into a top NFL QB, Bills fans had best hope that the Bills resident "cap genius"  retires before that happens because if the Bills couldn't afford to keep their best young vets when they didn't have a franchise QB, they'll either let Allen walk away or strip the team of talent first

     

    Oh please. You're living in 2009. Pay attention to what has happened since the Pegulas took over. The Bills aren't pinching pennies anymore.

    John Warrow’s High Praise For Beane & McDermott Regime

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted · Edited by HappyDays

    3 hours ago, SoTier said:

    The "big picture" of the Bills organization over the past two decades has been one of losing seasons infrequently interrupted by a handful of non-losing ones. 

     

    Are you aware that every member of the Bills organization from just 5 years ago has been replaced? Literally to a man it is an entirely different organization. The only commonality is the name of the team. This is just lazy analysis. Next time throw in a reference to Russ Brandon for the cherry on top.

    • Like (+1) 1

    The Draft Network: Josh Allen Review

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Protocal69 said:

    He lost me when he says Allen struggles with back shoulder placement. I think I only saw one throw that he missed throwing back shoulder. 

     

    Agreed, I'm not sure where he came up with that. He struggled with short throws, but I thought the back shoulder was one of his best throws.

    4 minutes ago, The Bills Blog said:

    This guy has always taken issue with Josh. He's one of those guys who will try at all costs to convince everyone that Josh isn't good. It will continue... As soon as I see "The Draft Network," I know it'll be this garbage.

     

    A good litmus test for his credibility will be his article on Lamar Jackson. If I remember correctly he thought Jackson was worthy of the #1 overall pick. I'm curious to see what he thinks of him now.

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    The Draft Network: Josh Allen Review

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted · Edited by HappyDays

    https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/rookie-qb-review--josh-allen

     

    A few snippets:

     

    Quote

    Bad news first: He wasn't very good. But that's okay! I can't emphasize this enough, Bills Mafia: rookie quarterbacks are supposed to be bad. Struggle is to be expected in Year 1. Allen finished the season with a 10:12 TD:INT ratio, just over 6 yards/attempt, an 8.0 sack rate, and 52.8% completion percentage. All of that is really not very good -- but he also had great numbers as a runner and improved statistically later in the season, so there's reason to be excited.

    And there's the good news: He was better than I expected, given his product at Wyoming. Allen showed more nuanced placement on downfield throws than I think he did with the Cowboys, which is a huge boon given how the offense is structured around him. He created a ton with his legs, which was not featured as heavily in Wyoming and could even get more offensive intention in Year 2.
     

     

    Quote

    This is the first complaint with Allen, and it always has been. His issues with inaccuracy are well-documented, and we'll touch on them later, but the biggest issue with Allen has always been his processing speed and risk management. A cool-headed quarterback, even with minimal NFL experience, should feel that he has space and time to adjust his set point, align his feet, and throw this ball downfield. Allen bails, tucks, and limits his offense with this run.

     

    Quote

    By the end of the season, the offense simply did not rely on short throws at all, and that's because Allen's most egregious inaccuracy issues flare up in the quick game, when he doesn't build a throwing base and attempts to drive footballs into wide-open windows exclusively with arm strength.

     

    Quote

    Now, inaccuracy doesn't just vanish. Players don't just become more accurate -- at least, not with such a significant jump that we should expect Allen to, at any point in his career, become a suddenly accurate quarterback. He's good at hitting downfield throws when he can see it and sling it, though he still struggles with backshoulder placement; he can hit some intermediate crossers and then inexplicably miss the next one. The name of the game isn't making Allen more accurate -- it's modeling the offense around the throws that he

     can hit accurately, and hoping that passing game will be sustainable.

    Allen's footwork can get better. But he'll probably continue to miss easy, short throws for the rest of his career.

     

    Quote

    I think the Bills should again prove a feisty team this year, and while I don't expect a record above .500, I think 6-10 and 7-9 are within range, and they have the chances to take some good teams down to the wire.

     


    We circle back to the question: can you build a functional offense around Allen in the NFL? I think yes, if you use him intentionally as a dual-threat player, don't mess around with a short game, and have enough wide receiver talent to basically play Madden on an NFL field.

     

     

    Quote

    There's a better chance that Allen becomes a tenable NFL starter now than there was this time last year -- he landed in a good spot and showed growth in Year 1. But we're still far out from the mark, and development isn't linear. I have hope, but only a flicker.

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