HappyDays

Yeah that pick play was definitely Bernard's fault. But I was referring to the 2nd and 11 easy completion to Conklin. That is a play call failure, not a player failure IMO.

I don't think that was a player execution error. It's the play call. We love to do that "drop back, invite a short pass, rally and tackle." It's bit us in the ass a bunch of times in recent weeks. And opponents know that is our tendency and they come prepared to take full advantage.

Milano was actually pretty good against the Jets. I'm not expecting him to get back to an all-pro level this year, but if he keeps building on that last game he'll be more than good enough. I know nobody wants to hear this but I don't think the players are as big a problem as the scheme/coaching. Sure with the lack of superstar talent we shouldn't expect a top 3 defense, but we shouldn't expect a bottom 3 defense either. I don't believe that our talent is that awful. Some of the stuff on tape against the Jets early on was mind numbingly bad: -Milano forces a holding penalty which puts them into 2nd and 11. We respond by dropping into soft tampa 2, Bernard drops way back in his zone and Conklin just casually takes four steps and turns around and collects an easy catch for 10 yards. Suddenly we're in 3rd and 1 and only escaped with a stop because Rodgers missed a wide open TD pass. Why are we not pressing the advantage on 2nd and 11? Why are we literally inviting them to get all of the penalty yardage back? -On this play Benford was caught somehow covering both Wilson and Adams on his side: There are two players to worry about on the Jets and we're letting them play a simple high/low where the defender can't possibly win. -Here's Bernard picking his own teammate: I mean this is the kind of stuff we would laugh at Rex Ryan about. And here we are watching it on film two weeks before the playoffs.

I'll add to this by saying my biggest concern is that the defense has been not just bad but abysmal over the last month starting with the Rams game. I've been making fun of the Bengals defense all year but that's about as bad as we've been in recent weeks. I know people will say we basically shut out the Jets but having watched back the all-22 it was a lot worse than the scoreboard. Some truly awful play calls and execution errors in the first few drives and the Jets just ended up making dumb mistakes of their own to let us off the hook, before they finally just ran for the bus. I just don't see playoff offenses making those mistakes. I'm concerned any opponent we face will turn into a shootout, maybe even the Broncos in the wildcard. Is Babich on the hot seat for next year? He hasn't really shown anything that warrants him keeping his job, but is McDermott afraid to fire yet another coordinator after a short lived stint? Even if McDermott stays (which is almost 100% going to happen) I almost want us to blow up the defense completely and take that side of the ball in a new direction. Kind of like what we did with the offense this year which immediately paid dividends. Rousseau and Benford are the only ones that should be here for the long term (and Oliver since he's already been extended) since they are pieces you can build any scheme around. All other positions should be recalibrated IMO. Make big changes even if just for the sake of change because what we've stuck with has gotten very stale and very predictable.

An elite QB plus an owner willing to write blank checks is an advantage that no other franchise has. Not even the Chiefs - Beane has more power to give money up front than Veach does. It's an insane once in a generation type advantage and we have one AFCCG appearance to show for it. That's why the frustration has boiled over. It feels like we should have a dynasty and instead we're an also-ran.

The thing Brady does very well is sequence progressions. Dorsey's reads were scattershot and it made everything look clunky with Allen's eyes going all over the place. One side was the man beater, the other side was the zone beater. That's amateur stuff, NFL DCs aren't going to let you off the hook with that. Brady on the other hand has Allen following a natural progression where each route should be breaking open right when Allen's eyes get there. I'm still not convinced Brady is overly creative like some of the top offensive minds, and Allen has certainly saved his lunch a few dozen times, but it's hard to argue with the results. For his next step, as we enter the playoffs I'd like to see him develop the vertical game more. He has the horizontal game down, A+ on that. Time to get a few more explosives and really open the entire field. Call a few shots to Cooper when he's 1v1. Who cares if the CB has vertical leverage? Brandin Echols just found out that doesn't mean much with Cooper's catch radius. Make defenses afraid to leave him all alone outside and that will open up everything else.

How do you feel about Ed Oliver for MVP?

Hmm I feel the exact opposite, that if anything Brady over-relies on mesh especially on 3rd/4th downs. That's been a staple of our offense all year.

This falls on the owner IMO. Mara should have fired Daboll several weeks ago and required the interim coach to start Tommy Devito if his intention was to tank. Daboll is not going to sacrifice his own career when he knows there's a good chance he's gone after this season. He's doing what he can to prove he deserves an OC position somewhere else.

It kind of has been broken the past two games though. I know we're all happy with the wins but the look of the offense is not what it was when we went on that incredible multi-game streak after adding Cooper, culminating in 40+ points against the Rams and Lions. It seems like defenses have caught on and are taking away a lot of the easy button throws that our offense was running through. Shakir has been the primary victim of this, only getting 47 yards combined over the past two games. The solution is to start beating defenses over the top until they're frightened enough to back off, and then all the underneath stuff will open up again. We added Cooper specifically for that purpose, we might as well use him accordingly.

No, I mean what I said - less than elite. As in he has the best EPA in the NFL and does not have such a ridiculously good supporting cast that we should wonder if the EPA is inflated by other factors. I think it's more than fair to agree that his EPA actually represents his own value to the team. And in fact my opinion is that his supporting cast deflates his EPA slightly, but if you don't agree with that it's fine, it's not overly relevant to this conversation. So I again will affirm that Allen has the best statistical case in the NFL. Do I think MVP voters actually look at EPA? Probably not for most of them. I'm just talking about the actual definition of MVP and why I think Allen fits that definition.

I have no clue how voters look at it because the conversation is constantly changing to accommodate the narrative du jour. I do know that CPOE is not even part of the conversation because it doesn't measure QB value. If EPA isn't the one stat that measures value better than any, then I don't know what is. And I'm not saying EPA alone ends the debate. If for example Jalen Hurts led the NFL in EPA I would say well lets take into account the context of the situation around him because it's almost absurd how good it is. But with Allen he leads the NFL in EPA, AND has a less than elite supporting cast even under the most generous interpretation, AND has more wins than his MVP competition. To me those factors combined close the case. And I don't have to be "hyper specific" to come to that conclusion.

@VW82 since you're clearly a connoisseur of NFL ELO I'll also point out that Allen leads the NFL in total WPA and WPA per play. CPOE is clearly the least meaningful of those advanced stats.

Why would CPOE matter in the MVP conversation? It doesn't calculate value at all. A QB making safe efficient throws all game would be at a disadvantage compared to, for example, a QB throwing prayers up to AJ Brown all game. Even though the 1st QB has the harder job and the less sustainable offense. EPA literally tells you how much value a QB is adding to the scoreboard. The other QBs in the conversation are Jackson and Burrow, and you're not going to convince anyone Allen hasn't been working with less than either of them. I remember before the season when most people said Allen wouldn't be able to produce with his diminished set of weapons and that if he could he would be the MVP for sure. Now it's week 17 and that narrative has mysteriously disappeared.

He leads the NFL in total EPA and EPA per play. EPA is the definition of "valuable." So he in fact has the strongest statistical case out of all of them. He's of course doing this with the weakest set of weapons compared to any other QB in the conversation.

I would prefer to play the Broncos over them but they're still a much better option than the Bengals IMO. They would have to play in what is likely to be extreme cold, and we know how much that hinders them, plus we would have the psychological advantage of being the team they can never get past. I worry a bit that they could turn it into a shootout like they did in our last game, but ultimately we would have a lot of factors in our favor. But let's hope Denver beats KC's backups next week and we get the most favorable path.

Funny enough that Davis Mills game was also against the Bills. We beat Houston 40-0.

We haven't made it a point to find WRs that can make those plays, which is really disappointing with a QB with Allen's skill set and talent. Drafting Coleman was a step in the right direction but he has a lot to prove still. Trading for Cooper was finally an admission that what they had wasn't good enough. Keep adding to the room next year. Make it so that we can make those plays every week, not once in a career. And I'd like to see Brady call more of those deep shots to Cooper and even Coleman. Moving the ball a few yards at a time can be efficient but also difficult to sustain. We need more explosive plays. Cooper has made a late stage career off those types of catches. Make them a key feature of the offense.

That Cooper TD catch is something I see other offenses get on a weekly basis but never us. Allen finally has a WR he can rely on downfield. Hopefully we can re-sign him to a mid-tier deal.

Let's get a random depth player a receiving TD next week to get the record. Run the Philly special to Trubisky.

It's revolting but I'll root for Miami to win today. Anyone but the Bengals is still the goal.

MVP Cooper Rousseau Oliver

He needs to take exactly one snap, the first one, to keep his iron man streak alive

Yeah. When I saw Josh make a special throw to cement his MVP award it didn't cross my mind that I wish he was better on jump ball throws. I just enjoyed the moment.