HappyDays

So your original comment was based on the idea that we are 100% likely to lose to both the Pats and Eagles, and only 60% likely to beat the Jets? Yeah this was a waste of time for both of us.

Okay? They need to win 1 more game to have an 87% chance of being in. If they beat Browns and Jets they are practically 100% in.

On the Benford INT he tried to shot put the ball and lost control of it. That was definitely on him, although Benford certainly made a great play on the ball. On the other INT Jordan Phillips put his hand up and then almost a full second passed and then Burrow threw it right into his hand. It wasn't just lucky timing, it's like he thought he could get it over or around his hand and it was a poor judgment on his part. He definitely let his offense down. There was no need to force anything, they were moving the ball at will against us.

I'd like to see your math for how we only have a 60% chance of getting in. According to the NYT playoff machine if we only win 1 more game against the Jets or Browns we are 87% likely to get in. In fact we get in 23% of the time if we lose out. So your opinion is that we have a greater than 40% chance of losing out?

Somehow Benford was snubbed for Rasul Douglas of all people.

Am I reading into this too much or is McDermott genuinely pissed at Beane for the whole debacle?

Yeah I hear you. One reason I think this offseason will be different is the WGR rant shined a spotlight on the room. In retrospect I'm glad Beane did it, as stupid as it was. Before this year the national media wasn't paying much attention to the WR failings and the Bills were hiding behind elite offensive statistics. Now because of that rant everyone is paying attention and they can see that the emperor has no clothes. Games like this past week's where Allen has to pull a rabbit out of a hat over and over again just to keep them in it only makes the narrative louder. So out of self-awareness if nothing else they will HAVE to make a splash move next year. But hey, fool me a dozen times...

Cincy is just a poor comparison all around because they have terrible ownership that refuses to spend money. Pegula gives McDermott and Beane blank checks every year. I don't buy this narrative that Cincy's problems stem from paying Chase and Higgins. If anything the criticism is that they should have paid them one year sooner, and that again goes back to cheap ownership. I mean Cincy right now has $11M in cap space... We're spending right to our limit every year. They have $79M in projected cap space in 2026. I also don't buy that the Bengals have failed Burrow. He is just flat out injury prone. He takes normal NFL hits and misses almost half of his career from them. It's not like they've had trouble scoring points whether with Burrow or one of his backups over the years. That WR tandem is a cheat code that more than makes up for whatever deficiencies exist on offense. As far as their defensive struggles that is partly because of cheap ownership and partly because of poor drafting the last few years. You're not going to sell me on the narrative that the Bengals invested too much in their superstar WR tandem. The other issues that exist there are completely independent of that.

I don't think we're a 3 win team without Allen and I don't think McDermott is a bad coach. He's the proverbial RB that gets you 2 yards on 3rd and 2, and also gets you 2 yards on 1st and 10. My issue has been that McDermott and Beane chose to build the team in a way that takes away from Allen's greatness. Then we inevitably get into games like this past Sunday where we need Allen to be beyond great and boy are we blessed that he can pull off a win like that even when so much around him goes wrong, but to use McDermott's own words "it shouldn't have to be that hard" to win through the passing game. They intentionally constructed the team to have that flaw, and for what it's worth I give McDermott and Beane equal blame on that front. Like I said earlier in the thread I give McDermott credit for letting Allen win him the game. I don't mean that sarcastically. The best thing he and Beane can do moving forward is to build the team around Allen and get out of the way. He can gift them both a Hall of Fame legacy if they'll only let him. Some of McDermott's comments this year and his aggressiveness against Cincy give me hope that he's finally figured that out, and Beane goes as McDermott goes as far as I'm concerned.

Do you think Devin McCourty is paid to stir the pot? I saw him on FNIA on Sunday talk about how Josh Allen is the only reason we make the playoffs every year, then when we inevitably lose he unduly takes all the blame on his shoulders. Like the supporting cast around him doesn't even deserve to be there, but the narrative becomes that Allen is playing on a Super Bowl caliber team and can't finish the job. As I've said before Allen is a victim of his own success. He gets criticized for not winning playoff games that we have no right to even be in. His ridiculous and unsustainable caliber of play last year convinced his GM that the offense was perfectly fine without a lick of WR talent. He singlehandedly erases so many flaws with the coaching staff and the roster that it's almost impossible to evaluate the rest of the machine around him which means McDermott and Beane probably have lifetime contracts. I'm not sure that any one player in NFL history had the singular effect that Allen has had on the Bills. Not that he's the GOAT, that mantle still belongs to Tom Brady, but I do think he erases mistakes better than anybody else that came before him. McDermott and Beane's careers were absolutely built by Josh Allen, and I don't even mean that as a criticism of them it's just a fact. Hell I'm convinced our new stadium deal was built by him too. It's a shame that this regime inexplicably chose to lean away from Allen's greatness in this 2nd window rebuild, but hopefully they've learned from the entirely predictable mistake and will pull a 180 in the coming offseason whether we win the Super Bowl or not.

I'm not going to nitpick individual games from the past five years. This year in particular is glaring though. We're downplaying the Pats winning 10 games in a row, meanwhile we lost games to the Falcons and Dolphins. If we had gone on a 10 win streak which was absolutely doable from the stretch of Baltimore to Tampa Bay, would we be downplaying it because we didn't beat any powerhouse along the way? Is there even a powerhouse to beat in the AFC this year? We were gifted with an easy schedule and we blew it. Pats were gifted with an easy schedule and have taken full advantage. In that context criticizing the opponents they've beaten just falls totally flat for me, especially when we were one of those opponents.

I missed the post, what did he say? I've also sensed some tension between McDermott and Beane but I don't know how much to read into that. I'd be worried if they weren't feeling competitive tension after all these years of just failing to get over the hump. I still think Pegula views them as a package deal but I could be wrong.

The best thing McDermott did in this game is get out of Allen's way. I don't mean that in an underhanded way, I mean he genuinely just let Allen go win the game for him by being aggressive with 4th downs and the 3rd and 15 call on the final drive. I think McDermott from a couple years ago would have run on that 3rd down and trusted his defense to win the game for him. I want so bad for McDermott to be the coach that gets us there. He's a good man and he could never be accused of not giving the job his all. I've seen him learn from his mistakes, albeit at a much slower pace than I would like. His fatal flaw has been that he clenches up in high leverage moments in critical games. It remains to be seen if he can overcome that flaw in playoff games but I will say this year there haven't been any glaring head scratching moments from him at the end of games. I want to be optimistic but this season is unfolding in an identical manner to pretty much every other season we've had since 2020 so I have to see it happen when it counts to really believe it. I think McDermott and Beane both know at this point the teambuilding strategy on offense was a bust. I expect them both back next year and I expect a big move for a WR no matter how this season ends. Similar to my thoughts above I wish it didn't take them until the edge of disaster to realize their mistake but I don't think they're so stupid that they're going to let the mistake repeat itself next year.

New England is the only team we've faced all year that I thought flat out beat us with their run defense. I know Miami did as well but I attributed that more to the Bills coming in lazy and getting surprised by a Miami team that was still fighting. New England we came into with our normal juice and still got stuffed. They had Milton Williams though and now he's on IR so hopefully we'll get them back this week.

I've played around with the playoff machine. Chargers need one of these two scenarios to occur to get in over the Chiefs: 1) Beat Chiefs OR Broncos 2) Beat Cowboys AND Texans Broncos are going to play kingmaker in the AFC. They play the Chiefs in week 17 and the Chargers in week 18. The outcome of those games will very likely decide the playoff picture from top to bottom.

Yeah that is just crazy. Beane chose to spend $30M on three C+ receivers instead of one A receiver. Obviously that strategy has turned out to be disastrous. Partly because he just refuses to consistently spend draft capital on them. Most teams have their version of Josh Palmer playing on a 3rd-5th round rookie contract. We waste $10M on him then we get lectured by the GM that it's not his fault he can't afford better WR talent.

Allen is literally the most valuable player in the league but that's not what the MVP award is for. Yes as stupid as that sounds. It's more of a season achievement award for the QB of a top seed. I think if New England goes 3-1 to end the season Maye will get it. If they go 2-2 it will go to Stafford. Slight chance of Jordan Love getting it over Stafford if the Packers finish with the #1 seed. Anyone other than those three I'd give 100:1 odds at this point. For Allen to get it we'd have to win out and have everything else happen just right for us to end as the #1 seed.

I'll be honest, the schedule argument really doesn't do it for me. Ripping off 10 wins in a row is incredibly impressive no matter who you play during the run. It's not like the Pats have a ton of talent across their roster either. They are winning these games with elite coaching and fundamentals, and damn good QB play to boot. The Bills have never been the #1 seed because they've failed to ever have a run like that and they find a way to lose to a couple clearly inferior opponents every year. So it's a bit rich to act like it is some hollow feat when we haven't done it once in six seasons with an all-time QB in his prime. By the way I think we are a clearly better team than New England and I expect us to win this week, I just can't bring myself to downplay what Vrabel has them doing this year. It's an amazing stretch of games for a young team, full stop.

Burrow is just injury prone. He takes normal NFL hits and misses half the season. If he was in Allen's place against Houston he would have left the stadium in a body bag. Being able to throw to an elite WR tandem means he can almost always hit the top of his drop and get the ball out immediately which more than cancels out whatever pass protection issues they have. I mean Joe Flacco has the mobility of the Tin Man and had the Bengals averaging 29 PPG in his games so I'm not going to buy that the OL is some fatal flaw for that team.

Mathematically no, practically yes. Really any loss the rest of the year and they are done. I ran a scenario where LA and Indy both lose out but KC loses to Denver, KC misses in that scenario.

Nah. Chargers are not going to win 3 more games after this one. They are toast with the OL injuries and Herbert playing hurt. Luckily we really only need them to win 1 more to keep KC out... Beating KC or Denver (in week 18 when they might be resting starters) will do it.

Haha that's unbelievable. Making a quick pit stop at Chiefs Planet, say a little prayer for me

Chargers are the most hilarious franchise. They just always find a way to lose

I usually have a good feel for 4th down decisions but I have no clue on this one

Yeah it actually depends. If LA loses to Denver as one of their losses then KC gets in over them at 10-7. Couldn't tell you why but that's what the playoff machine says.