HappyDays

But that just isn't true. Rashee Rice alone gives them a big advantage there. Before his injury he was looking like a true #1, possibly an elite #1. In his 3 games pre-injury he was tracking for over 1,600 yards on the season. I doubt he would have sustained that exact production over 17 games, but still they found an extremely talented and productive WR in the 2nd round because they kept throwing resources at the position.

Going back to 2022, by the trade value chart the Chiefs have spent 432 points on WRs. The Bills by comparison have spent 206. So KC is literally investing more than double what we are. It isn't comparable prioritization at all. Adding UDFA graded prospects like Shorter and Prather doesn't balance the scales. And this shouldn't come as a surprise - it's established that the Bills invest less into the position than any other team. Of their past 3 WRs drafted high, KC has one bust in Skyy Moore. That's a great hit rate, 2 out of 3. I agree with you that what we've gotten out of our WRs relative to the value we've spent on them has been strong. Davis was a very good 4th round pick and Shakir was an excellent 5th round pick. Diggs was a home run as a 1st round trade despite how it all ended. Coleman is TBD. I don't have an issue with how Beane scouts the position. I have an issue with how little he invests in young talent.

The WR class was seen as weak with top end talent, but it was known to be strong in terms of day two and three WRs with vertical traits. That's where it feels like we missed the boat. Kyle Williams, Felton, Royals, Horton, D*ke, Thornton... and that's just off the top of my head. I had my own preferences among that group but to me the most critical thing was adding some kind of field stretcher in a draft rich with that skill set. We should have double dipped last year too when the WR class was especially strong. I actually liked the Coleman pick which was an unpopular opinion, but we needed to add a true field stretcher too to complement his skill set. Because we didn't, we added MVS and Claypool which didn't work out at all, we lost games early in the season because we didn't have anybody to threaten defenses downfield, and then we had to trade a 3rd rounder for a half season rental to give us that skill set so our season wouldn't go completely off the rails. So the mistake compounded and cost us a top 100 draft pick this year. And now Cooper is gone and we have added nobody to replace his skill set. I just don't get it. They're making the same roster decisions that have proven to be mistakes in the past.

Even in the context of immediate needs taking Tory Horton over Jordan Hancock makes sense. Cam Lewis is a better player than Tyrell Shavers or Laviska Shenault. We just gave him a 2 year contract last offseason, and now we're looking to replace him? But we're letting Shavers or Shenault end up on the roster? I don't understand that at all. Deone Walker over Jalen Royals is still the move that I think has the most potential to haunt us, especially with KC taking Royals. You're lying to yourself if you're not at least a bit anxious about that outcome. All the arguments you're making about the Bills could have applied to the Chiefs too. Their WR room was Rice, Worthy, Brown, JuJu, plus their TEs Kelce and Gray. They could have left the room as is and let Justyn Ross compete with Tyquan Thornton for the #5 spot. Instead they gave Mahomes yet another young weapon to develop in the pipeline. They've added a WR with a 1st-4th round pick in each of the last four drafts. Personally I'd be looking to copy their formula, it seems to be working.

This guy's sources are reliable: So the last game ever at Highmark will be on Christmas. I would bet it's the Chiefs.

Yeah I disagree. Like I mentioned above Cooper's two deep completions in the Chiefs game won us the game. He had that crazy downfield catch for a TD against the Jets, which was our only TD pass all year of 20+ yards. No one else on the roster was making those plays. Most of our other downfield passes throughout the year were on broken plays where Allen just made magic happen all on his own. And opposing defenses agreed with me because once we added Cooper a lot of other things in our offense opened up. Opposing defenses weren't changing the way they played when it was just Coleman and Hollins running those routes, in fact they dared us to try them. Our passing offense had fallen apart and Cooper's addition got it back on track.

But they did that when they traded for Cooper last year off the heels of two games where having no vertical threat directly led to losses. They met with all of the vertical WRs in the pre-draft process this year too. Beane and McDermott have both openly stated they think adding more speed on offense would be valuable. So on one hand their actions and words tell you they know it is an important role, on the other hand the role remains unfilled as of now. I don't understand the plan, but hopefully they at least get a baseline option in the room.

I find it weird that Beane and others say "don't forget about Kincaid" in the WR discussion, but then they point to the Pats dynasty use of WRs while intentionally leaving out a certain elite pass catcher that was kind of critical to their offense...

I don't want to throw Coleman under the bus. I was one of his biggest advocates in the pre-draft process last year. I was disappointed with his performance after returning from injury and I wish he had finished the season strong, but I'm still hopeful he can make a year two jump. Even while advocating for him I expected his rookie year to be bumpy and his skill set to take time to develop. But being honest with myself, nothing he did last year makes me feel confident he is the outside downfield WR that we are missing. I watched enough of the Chargers last year to know Palmer is not a vertical WR. He is a decent separator and possession WR who can definitely play outside full time, but his vertical speed and ball tracking are not good enough to fulfill the role I'm talking about. Cooper last year is actually a good example of what I'm talking about. In the regular season KC game he made two big downfield catches, and both of those drives ended in TDs. So we literally do not win that game without his contributions as a downfield WR. Right now I don't believe we have anyone on the roster that can make those plays. I don't think we have anyone that will even force teams to defend that area of the field. Coleman is our best hope but like I said there's no real reason to be confident he will. Beane's response to this concern is to tell us to stop bitching about it. Okay. We'll find out pretty quickly this season if it's a legitimate concern, like we did last year before trading for Cooper. Hopefully I'm wrong about Palmer or Coleman takes a big step in his development.

I think it just has to be the case regardless. I mean unless the worst case outcome happens to every single player we added, at a bare minimum we should be significantly more talented on defense than we were last year. We've built up enough depth that we can manage an injury or two to a starter if it comes to that. Unless our IR wire looks like the Lions last year the defensive coaches have to be able to make it work with this group. The reason I said less than 24 points and forcing 4 punts is that is exactly what Cincy did to KC in their last AFCCG, a game that Cincy of course still lost but that defensive performance would have been enough for us to beat KC in our last three tries. Cincy did that while starting Eli Apple and Cam Taylor-Britt at CB, and only one pass rusher to write home about. So I think that is a very fair standard for our defense to meet.

Honestly, good. I've been skeptical that throwing a ton of resources at the defense would really make a difference in the postseason. If nothing else I'm glad we're putting that theory to the test. It creates somewhat of an ultimatum for McDermott - if all of these talent and coaching additions aren't enough, nothing ever will be.

One point kind of lost in all this is that as much as Beane has put the spotlight on himself, this entire offseason also puts a spotlight on McDermott. Everyone agrees his defense has been our biggest problem in the postseason, and this regime has planted their flag that it is talent more than coaching that has been holding them back. Beane's offer to Brady this offseason was a WR3 and a blocking TE. His offer to McDermott was a CB1, three new EDGEs, three new DTs, and more secondary depth than we can even keep on the roster. So despite my frustration with the continued underinvestment in WR, I'm at least glad that everyone is in agreement that the defense now has the necessary talent to perform at an above average level in the postseason. You can't give all of these resources to a defensive head coach and then come back later making excuses that the talent wasn't good enough. This has to be the year KC's offense doesn't walk all over us in January. I think a realistic standard should be keeping them below 24 points and they need to punt at least 4 times. Otherwise, what was the point of this offseason?

It's about getting a WR with a specific necessary skill set. I didn't need the Bills to spend a top 100 pick on a WR from this class or multiple picks. I just wanted a WR that could play outside and get vertical, that's all. The role is so important they got rid of MVS so they could trade for Cooper last year. As of right now we don't even have an MVS on the roster, the role remains unfilled. Also for a team with an "everybody eats" mentality the #5 WR is more important than it is for other teams. Yeah when your top 2 are Chase/Higgins or Hill/Waddle no one cares who your #5 is. But when your offense is built around WRs that are all complementary role players with specific skill sets, you better make sure all the skill sets are accounted for and every player has a way to contribute. I don't know how anyone couldn't be concerned that we're going to see games like the Ravens and Texans last year where the offense was a slog because we had no way to threaten them downfield outside. We added Cooper and the lights clicked on. We at least need to get that baseline on the roster. I thought early day three was a great opportunity to do that in this class.

The team isn't lacking speed. KJ Hamler is on the PS. Jalen Virgil ran a 4.40. What it's lacking is speed WRs that can actually play at an NFL level consistently and get deep. Moore doesn't do either of those. I'd take him at this point because he's better than Shavers or Shenault but it's a marginal improvement and his skill set is mostly redundant with what already exists in Samuel and Shakir. Honestly I'd rather we re-sign Amari Cooper if anything. At least there's some sort of proof of concept there and he gives us a baseline vertical skill set.

Also the thing people forget about Metcalf's contract is that it would replace Palmer's contract. So the actual effect on the cap would not be as bad as it looks. Metcalf costs $6.7M more than Palmer this season, $19.5M more next season, and then in 2027 his contract is made to be restructured. It was not as prohibitive a contract as people made it out to be. He basically would have just replaced Diggs' spot in the future salary cap which Beane had already been accounting for before that relationship became untenable. We wouldn't have been able to sign the PED brothers but I think we'd manage okay. Instead for the second consecutive offseason we're having to hype ourselves up about a 2nd round bust reclamation project.

Here's a question and I'm genuinely curious about your answer or anyone else that feels the same as you - what happens if we face KC in January and the defense looks exactly the same as it always does? Because this isn't the first offseason that we've devoted the bulk of our investments to the defense, and that strategy has not yet produced this mythical defense that can keep KC to 20 points or lower. Why are we assuming this year is different?

Joe's comments here are spot on. For those that can't read the whole post:

Your numbers are off. First of all, 5 WRs on the roster are going to contribute. Whereas just 4 DTs are going to be your primary rotation - we did after all only keep 4 on the roster last year. Oliver, DQ, Sanders, Ogunjobi, Carter gives us 5 so even accounting for Ogunjobi's suspension we already had the room filled out before adding Walker. Meanwhile at WR we have a PS player and a former bust competing for the #5 spot. So I just completely disagree with you that an extra DT has more potential to contribute than an extra WR. Also, the important thing with WR is we are missing a specific skill set which is of course vertical traits. Beane himself has admitted this. We met with all of the vertical WRs in the class so he can't act shocked when people are concerned about the position, clearly he knew it was a problem but didn't make the necessary moves to fix it. I agree the DT room was weak heading into the class, but we at least had bodies that could fill whatever role we needed. As of right now we still do not have a vertical WR on the roster.

The defense has definitely been the bigger problem in our playoff losses. I don't think anybody disagrees with that. I question if the talent has been the main problem versus the coaching. But there were obvious talent deficiencies there that needed to be addressed and I had no problem making that the primary focus of this draft. I will say though it's not like they have been neglecting the defense until now. Every single year they're spending most of their resources on that side of the ball and it still inevitably fails, so I don't agree that just throwing all our draft resources at it is an automatic fix. I see fans saying a 4th round WR wouldn't have made a difference, but the same logic applies to a 4th round DT if that's the argument we're using. I think all the WGR hosts are clowns but Jeremy White's point that the Bills have under-prioritized the WR room is objectively correct. We have invested in the position less than any other team in the NFL and that isn't just my opinion, I have seen a chart that showed it definitively to be true even if you count Diggs as a 1st round pick. The apparent obsession with WRs that some of us have doesn't come from nothing, it comes from genuinely believing the position is a lot more important than this regime treats it. But all of that is just my opinion. Regardless of anyone's opinions on it, I definitely don't think the GM should be getting into arguments on air with local talking heads. I would think that even if I 100% agreed with everything he said. That is just bad form no matter the circumstances. I see a lot of fans excusing Beane by saying his frustration boiled over. But that is the job. 24/7 you are going to get assailed by people who mostly have no clue what they're talking about, and your job is to ignore the noise and keep a level head. Him doing what he did just puts a larger spotlight on the discussion and now if the moves they've made this offseason don't work he'll look both incompetent and foolish. Saying it out loud to myself maybe that's a good thing. I think this regime should be feeling some heat.

He can defend his decision making, I'm completely fine with that. I do not like the way he went about it at all though. Bringing up Josh Rosen vs Josh Allen from 2018 showed that this wasn't just him defending himself, he lost control of his emotions. And maybe it was all a planned stunt anyways, that wouldn't surprise me. It just brings unneccessary attention and is the totally wrong approach IMO.

It doesn't matter if Beane is annoyed. Local talking heads are going to complain. You can't stoop to their level. Personally I find what he did completely ridiculous, and it has nothing to do with my feelngs on the WR discussion. There is zero upside to this stunt. If in October Beane is again making a desperate trade for a WR he will rightly have this segment thrown back in his face.

Uhh this is weird. This is the kind of stuff you get from David Tepper. Bringing up Josh Rosen? This regime has been so deliberate about avoiding public drama, I really don't understand the sudden heel turn.

Currently Shenault or Shavers are in line to start. Yes I believe several early day 3 prospects in this draft could have beat them out.

Of course they did. But nothing about their past DL evaluations makes me blindly trust that their higher grade on Deone Walker is correct. Quite the opposite - I have almost zero faith in their ability to scout and properly use DL considering the vast amount of resources they've spent on the position for a comparatively meager return. Funny enough they've actually gotten a quite good return on their WR draft pick investments. Diggs for a 1st was a home run, Davis was a good 4th rounder, Shakir has been an excellent 5th rounder, and TBD on Coleman although the way he ended the season was disappointing. On a pure investment to return ratio, that's gotta be among the best in the NFL. The issue is they invest in the position less than any other team.

I don't think many fans disagree that rebuilding the defense should have been the main focus in this draft. It's just some of us wanted them to throw a bone to the offense too. Literally just use one decently high pick on a pass catcher. Is that so unfair? Trading up in the 4th when a couple vertical WRs were sitting there and instead taking yet another defensive lineman felt like total overkill to me.