HappyDays

This is the one. It's not as crazy as it sounds either. If we cut Samuel and Knox, and restructure Allen and Brown, that alone gives us about $50M in cap space to work with next year and that's just doing the bare minimum cap manipulation. You would definitely want to make Pittsburgh keep some of the salary as part of the trade if at all possible but either way we can fit him or any other available WR of our choosing into the cap next year.

Bills 34 Bengals 27 I've been absolutely terrible predicting our games this year. Even when I get the result right I've been way off on the score. I've given up on trying to guess what version of the Bills will show up each week. For this game I think the Bengals defense really is just that bad, worse even than the Bucs defense that we dominated. I expect Cook to have a field day and the passing offense to suddenly look functional for the first time in weeks. On defense I don't know what to expect but Burrow looks a bit rusty and we don't have to worry about their run game too much so I think we can stop the bleeding at least. Ultimately I expect our offense to sustain drives better than the Bengals can in our house in cold weather.

I'm getting a different result with the NYT playoff simulator through the Athletic. If we beat Browns and Jets and lose the other 3 games, they have us 75% to make the playoffs. Add any other win and it shows >99%. So to guarantee ourselves a spot we need to handle our business against the two clearly inferior opponents left on our schedule, and beat 1 of Bengals, Pats, or Eagles. Ideally we'll beat 2 of them and then can rest starters against the Jets.

Yeah that's pretty much what it comes down to. The NFL is too big for Ingram. Slay may be way past his prime but he's an improvement. Nothing to complain about with this move. He costs $350K against our cap and upgrades the depth, even if only slightly.

I saw a video of Chris Simms breaking down our run offense in this game. He briefly touched on this INT saying that Davis screwed Allen over by not crossing the CB's face. I'm not saying that Simms is automatically correct, or that Kurt Warner is, or least of all that I am. I inherently trust @HoofHearted more than anybody on this board with these questions. I'm just saying that's what it looked like Allen's thought process was. Gabe throttles down a bit and only accelerates back into his route once he realizes where the ball is headed. That brief slow down affected the outcome. I could be convinced Allen shouldn't have thrown this ball in any case because Echols' leverage muddies the read, but I do believe the ball was thrown where Davis would have been if he had continued the pace of his route and that a pass breakup would have been the worst case scenario.

Do you think Davis needed to cross the face of the slot there or did Josh misplace the throw? My thought watching it live was Josh expected Davis to continue running and the end result is we probably end up in 4th and 2.

No I'm fine with the horizontal passes to Shakir. They haven't been successful the past couple games but I wouldn't give up on them. I mean literally forward passes. Drops, INTs, fumbles, inability to get both feet in - those have been the outcome of way too many targets in Shakir's direction this year. We have to give up on the idea that he is a legit slot WR. He's a gadget player who's playing hurt so his overall role just needs to be reduced. I'd give TEs and RBs the majority of our targets from now on. Palmer if he can ever get healthy should get the most targets outside and even those targets should be limited, and maybe Cooks can give us something when he's been fully implemented. Anything else in our passing offense should be reduced as much as possible.

One bonus I just thought of to Houston winning - we ideally want to be the 6 seed if we're assuming Baltimore wins the AFCN. For that to happen we ideally want Houston tying or beating our record. That means we travel probably to Indy or maybe Jacksonville in the wildcard round. That's a preferable outcome to traveling to Baltimore IMO.

Yeah I think Cook still is a bit underrated by Bills fans. The blocking is great but his vision and footwork elevates the blocking more than the other way around IMO. They put a lot of trust in him to make the blocks right and he just about always delivers. He's done a really good job of picking up dirty yards too when nothing else is available which is why his rate of 0 or negative yard runs is so low. Compare that to Ray Davis who has a lot more negative runs on his resume.

Trading up for Worthy isn't working out well for them. He's on pace for 600 yards and has 1 TD. That's not a trade up in the 1st round type of outcome at all. Chiefs fans are annoyed with him and his role in the offense.

Pats have to lose to Dolphins or Jets for it to matter. If they beat both, even if they lose to us and the Ravens they end 13-4. If we win out we also end 13-4 and they win the tiebreaker for division record. Our slimmest of hopes is that the Dolphins upset them in week 18 and that we win out. I've given up on the division. It is what it is. Root for the Steelers to win the AFCN and the Chiefs to miss the playoffs. That gives us an incredibly easy road schedule all the way to the Super Bowl. Something like Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Denver. I don't care if we play all of those games in Timbuktu, I like our chances.

I'm already done with Davis to be honest. Dropped a TD against Tampa, failed to get both feet inbounds at the end against Houston on a play that might have won us the game, had his typical route miscommunication with Allen leading to an INT against Pittsburgh. I'm so over it. Targets in his direction are 50/50 whether they'll be a big play or a complete disaster. It's actually starting to lean more 40/60. We worked so hard to remove Davis' brand of chaos from the game script only to welcome it back because we put ourselves in a corner. I'm good with Brandin Cooks taking his job permanently. Four things I immediately want to see less of in this offense, in this order: 1) Passes to Elijah Moore - one down, three to go 2) Passes to Gabe Davis 3) Passes to Knox 4) Forward passes to Shakir By and large these plays have been black holes in our offense all year long.

Kincaid is definitely our most important pass catcher. He's the only one that Allen inherently trusts, which is a big step forward from last year when the two were frequently not on the same page. It is weird though that we're calling him a key player when he was only in on 41.5% of snaps prior to injury. But he's been ridiculously efficient with a 155.6 passer rating when targeted. He's mostly useless in the run game because there are just better blockers than him on the roster, but our pass game is almost non-functional when he isn't on the field.

I think the point is that our offense is built to play like it did against Pittsburgh, not like it did against Houston. Of course I still question what will happen if/when we get into a playoff matchup where the opponent shuts down the run and gets a lead on us which forces us to pass. But the way our team is built we need to live with pounding the run and throwing primarily to TEs and RBs until absolutely necessary. Our best pass play right now is PA shot where we check it down to the RB or a leaking TE. So everything needs to build off of the run game. It is not an ideal offense by any means but it is our best path forward.

I don't know, I'd feel pretty confident in the 2nd matchup. That loss was a learning lesson for the coaching staff. A lesson they immediately instituted the following week against Pittsburgh. If the offense had done the exact same thing against Houston - pound the rock, pass almost exclusively to TEs and RBs, ball out of Allen's hands in 2 seconds, extra blockers on every play - we probably win that game. I have no doubt that will be the gameplan if we face them in the playoffs. I'd also add, take the points AKA kick FGs at every opportunity. No team is beating Houston throwing the ball all over the field. So our offense's weakness in a weird way neutralizes their strength. They're maybe the only team in the NFL where our small ball philosophy is actually the best approach to beat them. You don't need to win a shootout, just outlast their offense.

Man that's a pretty tough sell given who he's hired. In your mind the pool of "best possible coordinators" happened to be the resident Bills QB coaches from 2019-2023? Yes this is one of the known downsides of having a defensive minded coach as your HC. You can't say "I'd trade Brady for McDaniels but not McDermott for Vrabel." Putting aside the head coach comparison which I just fundamentally disagree with you on, you either get both or you get neither. You can't have McDermott and also McDaniels. FWIW I think that may finally change next year if McDermott is still here. He will be forced to leave his comfort zone, by Pegula if not by his own self-awareness. I expect Mike McDaniel or Kevin Stefanski to be our next OC because we've reached a tipping point in Allen's career.

What if I told you that McDermott is the reason we don't have a Josh McDaniels caliber OC?

So have we though. Practically the entire AFC has a cupcake schedule... It's just a very weak conference. There's no reason we shouldn't be 10-2 at worst right now and in the driver's seat for the #1 seed. That's despite some pretty stark talent deficiencies at several positions on the roster. The reality is that every team in the conference has major deficiencies somewhere, the Pats included.

If the Bills had Vrabel and McDaniels we'd be Super Bowl favorites... That's my point. Of course Maye wouldn't be doing here what he's doing in New England. But I 100% believe if we had their coaching staff and no other changes, we'd be the ones with the 11-2 record right now. They are just a really well coached fundamentally sound team. That plus a QB who is playing great and just about any team in the NFL is talented enough to be where they are right now.

It does not have the look of a championship roster. Then again none of the AFC teams do, so who knows. Usually a championship roster has a difference maker on the DL and a difference maker in the WR room. I don't think New England has either of those. It's a good WR room. It's a good OL (when healthy). Excellent CBs but that's their only position group I would put in the upper echelon of the NFL. The rest of their roster I would put in an average or lower tier. Maye's play and elite level coaching is why they've ripped off 10 wins in a row. With that win streak Vrabel did in year one what McDermott hasn't done in his entire tenure. It is not a 10 win in a row type of roster, I'm confident saying we've had multiple better rosters than that since 2020. The coaching is the biggest difference from last year to this year.

Stroud's rookie year is the only one of those that is remotely comparable to Maye this year, and there were a lot of analytics that showed Stroud was getting away with a good amount of turnover luck and that sort of thing. I don't know what to tell people that are still trying to dismiss what Maye has done this year. He and Vrabel/McDaniels are going to be a problem for the next decade. The scary thing is they have a ton of cap space next year so what we're seeing this season is the floor. Don't be surprised if they add AJ Brown or a similar talent. They are probably overachieving this year relative to their talent, but that's what great coaching gets you and the talent is only going to get better.

He's been great. His downfield throws in particular have excellent. I expect his GM to slowly remove all of his WRs, surround with him physically limited cast offs, and ask him to be a game manager in a boring run heavy offense. Maybe if Josh McDaniels gets a head coaching job they can just hire whatever offensive coach who happens to already be in the building to be his replacement.

We tried him on two slants against Pittsburgh. One clean drop, one poor route that led to a drop on a tougher than needed to be catch. Allen has thrown 2 INTs in his direction downfield this year. Shakir has had a few opportunities to make routine sideline catches and couldn't finish. I don't know why so many Bills fans still think that we under utilize him. He isn't a traditional slot WR that you can feed normal targets to. Every time we've tried to give him a bigger role it's turned out poorly.

Giants are permanently living in 2nd and 9 because they refuse to give up on these hopeless 1st down runs

I think Bosa might have to spend the rest of his career on 1 year deals like Clowney. Teams aren't going to trust him to stay healthy enough to warrant anything more than that. Within that context yeah I'd bring him back on a 1 year deal since he costs $7.2M against the cap even if we don't bring him back. But if we bring him back we have to give him less snaps and save him for critical pass rush situations.