CanadianFan

I know it feels like it's doom and gloom. Especially bec. of the way we lost. So I went to work and looked at our competition for the 6th seed. We got a chance if we take care of our own end. Forget the past. We still got enough talent to get the job done. 9-7 or 8-8 gets into playoffs this year is my bet.

Sorry, lost in the jumble of numbers is the real message now in bold letters: we have the 2nd best chance to get the 6th seed. It's still in our grasp.

THIS is why those 2 losses were so tough to take. Let's face it - this defense is NOT ****. But without Dareus, it's like the whole defense fell apart. Parts are strong but the key link is gone.

I did better - game by game match by match forecast of each competitor's game results with possible win totals to see who wins that race. My forecast: Current division leaders, Titans & Jags. Ravens get the last seed.

It took a few minutes that's all. And it's pretty easy to see where teams are now.

Here are the standings: AFC Team W L 1 Pittsburgh Steelers 7 2 2 New England Patriots 7 2 3 Kansas City Chiefs 6 3 4 Tennessee Titans 6 3 5 Jacksonville Jaguars 6 3 6 Buffalo Bills 5 4 7 Baltimore Ravens 4 5 8 Oakland Raiders 4 5 9 Miami Dolphins 4 5 10 New York Jets 4 6 11 Houston Texans 3 6 12 Cincinnati Bengals 3 6 13 Los Angeles Chargers 3 6 14 Denver Broncos 3 6 15 Indianapolis Colts 3 7 16 Cleveland Browns 0 9 Looking at their play, and the rest of their schedules, top 5 gets through to playoffs. So our competition is for the last playoff spot, the 6th seed. Here's how that 6th seed competition looks like. I considered every team except Browns. Where I think it's a fairly even match, I gave each team a half win. Not many teams got half wins. Here's how it all falls out for me. Based on remaining schedule, Ravens are going to get that 6th seed. Their schedule is way easier and it's unfortunate. BOTTOM LINE: WE HAVE THE 2ND BEST PROBABILITY FOR GETTING THE 6TH SEED. There's still HOPE. Team Current Win Total Week# Date Bills 5 Ravens 4 Raiders 4 Dolphins 4 Jets 4 Texans 3 Bengals 3 Chargers 3 Broncos 3 Colts 3 11 Nov-19 BUF @ LAC 0.5 BAL @ GB 1 NE @ OAK 0 TB @ MIA 1 BYE ARI @ HOU 0 CIN @ DEN 0 BUF @ LAC 0.5 CIN @ DEN 1 BYE 12 Nov-26 BUF @ KC 0 HOU @ BAL 1 DEN @ OAK 1 MIA @ NE 0 CAR @ NYJ 0 HOU @ BAL 0 CLE @ CIN 1 LAC @ DAL 0 DEN @ OAK 0 TEN @ IND 0 13 Dec-03 NE @ BUF 0 DET @ BAL 0.5 NYG @ OAK 1 DEN @ MIA 0.5 KC @ NYJ 0 HOU @ TEN 0 PIT @ CIN 0.5 CLE @ LAC 1 DEN @ MIA 0.5 IND @ JAX 0 14 Dec-10 IND @ BUF 1 BAL @ PIT 0 OAK @ KC 0 NE @ MIA 0 NYJ @ DEN 0 SF @ HOU 1 CHI @ CIN 1 WAS @ LAC 0.5 NYJ @ DEN 1 IND @ BUF 0 15 Dec-17 MIA @ BUF 1 BAL @ CLE 1 DAL @ OAK 0.5 MIA @ BUF 0 NYJ @ NO 0 HOU @ JAX 0 CIN @ MIN 0 LAC @ KC 0 DEN @ IND 1 DEN @ IND 0 16 Dec-24 BUF @ NE 0 IND @ BAL 1 OAK @ PHI 0 MIA @ KC 0 LAC @ NYJ 0 PIT @ HOU 0 DET @ CIN 1 LAC @ NYJ 1 DEN @ WAS 0.5 IND @ BAL 0 17 Dec-31 BUF @ MIA 0 CIN @ BAL 1 OAK @ LAC 0.5 BUF @ MIA 1 NYJ @ NE 0 HOU @ IND 1 CIN @ BAL 0 OAK @ LAC 0.5 KC @ DEN 0 HOU @ IND 0.5 Posssible Win Totals 7.5 9.5 7 6.5 4 5 6.5 6.5 7 3.5 Urgh. Excel tables don't work. Here's the table as a picture file.

I agree. Only two reasons why we might have a chance - the drubbing we took last sunday SHOULD bring out the best in players and coaches, and Rivers not playing. Clemons is a dinker and we'll take that all day.

IKR. Looking at their record, and without Rivers, we're lucky to be in this position to win this game. Yet, it won't be an easy game. The rest of the team is legit. And they were rounding into form. They played Jags tough man. They almost won if not for that stupid pick by Rivers.

We're going against 2 of the league's TOP edge rushers.

Holy fork a 9-3 team??? what the hell was that like??? I think football gods took pity on us and took Rivers out of that game as a handicap. BUT DOES US NO GOOD FAM! WE NEED HIGH DRAFT PICKS!!!

That's what upsets me more man, this team isn't garbage like those garbage teams. And yet this team did worse than them. That's what's upsetting.

I'm reviving this old thread. Because it's relevant. PFF posted this today, and I believe this is their message to Tyrod - THROW THE GOD DAMN DEEP BALL to KB to save your job. Did Tyrod even attempt a deep ball to KB sunday? Most of KBs targets came from Peterman I think.

BEST IDEA OF THE DAY! I hope Pats pick him up so he can win a ring. HE DESERVES A RING.

Bob, I know you are a smart man, I've read many of your comments. You need to get over simplistic explanations offered by that stat and READ and comprehend. How do you not get this simple explanation. He isn't good for stopping the pass. He's great for run stopping. If he's in there only for 40% of the snaps that meant HE WAS DOING HIS JOB STOPPING THE RUNS, and it became PASSING DOWNS so he came out. How do you NOT get this Bob? What was our BIGGEST PROBLEM THESE PAST TWO WEEKS? Can you just SCAN the threads here? Answer me that simple question - what was our BIGGEST defensive issue last sunday?

Someone's piling it on - I'm afraid I have to quote him because I didn't know that yesterday was our WORST DAY as a defensive unit:

The right move could have come in the off-season. That's what SMART front offices do. We still HAVE unused cap space this season. We didn't need to dump him NOW. We were 5-3, in the midst of a play-off race, which Beane admitted publicly. This was a HUGE miscalculation on his part. The RIGHT THING to do was off-season, when you have the ability to get a REPLACEMENT. It's BLATANTLY OBVIOUS BY NOW. Only fools would be blind to it.

He hasn't brought in a competent backup RB that's why a FB has to play RB. There's been widespread reports he's still trying to get a backup RB up to the trade deadline but couldn't. That's how incompetent he is. He didn't have to trade Dareus NOW. He could have traded him in off-season where we could have gotten a replacement either in draft of FA. As is, he took away the team's best run-stopper on a team that was relying on run-stopping to win games. THAT'S IDIOTIC. It's just the start. You think their decision-making is going to suddenly get better when the calendar turns?

It's not the # of snaps. It's his role in setting up the defensive scheme. His ability to PLUG UP the middle of the line, take on 2 blockers disrupts the opposing team's running game, leaving ends, backers and safeties to come in and finish the job as the running back is stopping, pausing waiting for linemen to make a hole. Once you stop the other team's run-game, it becomes 2nd and long, 3rd and long - bam they become predictable, their play calling limited, they become one-dimensional. We cover their wideouts in a zone, our tall long secondary and linebackers tip the balls get picks or tackle them after short yardage. Even though we can not get to the quarterback, it was fine because of the way we played this way. That was our recipe for success earlier in the season. Without him in there, we can't stop the run, we never could put pressure on the QB or stop the pass so every option was available to the other team and thus makes defending that much worse.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jkatzenstein/status/929854128427237376/video/1

You said it. It's not just a bad trade. It's BAD JUDGEMENT. It casts doubt on his ability to do this job well.

I'm so happy for Woods and Watkins. They paid their dues in Buffalo. Now they prosper in Hollywood!

Hard Numbers - Two games without Dareus, we have now given up 246 rushing yards per game. 7 games with Dareus, we gave up only 80 rushing yards per game.

Apologize now, if you didn't you know-nothing haters. Your bile makes this fandom toxic. Worse than Chernobyl.

WTF he barely touched the face mask.